Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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398 FXUS62 KILM 221112 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 615 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will move off to the northeast as a cold front approaches from the northwest this morning. Dry high pressure will build in behind this cold front later today. An elongated area of low pressure extending up from the eastern Gulf will track slowly up from the south Thursday through Friday producing unsettled weather until it finally lifts off to the northeast on Saturday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday night followed by cold and dry Canadian high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...A wave of low pressure will move off to the northeast this morning followed by a cold front which will sweep across the area this afternoon. Lingering low level moisture will produce some low clouds and fog this morning. Expect some spots to get below a half mile vsby at times this morning. Have issued an Special Weather Statement for the locally dense fog but may have to issue a Dense Fog Advisory if conditions get worse. This cold front will come through dry and scour out this moisture as dry air advects in from the north behind it into this aftn. Pcp water values up near 1.4 inches will drop below a half inch by this evening with lower values inland, in a deep N-NW flow of dry air as high pressure builds in. Temps up between 55 and 60 degrees most places overnight in a very moist air mass will only rise about 10 degrees by this aftn fighting against CAA and limited sunshine until skies clear this afternoon. The 850 temps will drop from near 10 C down to 6 C by midnight tonight. The dewpoint temps will drop a good 20 degrees over the next 24 hours. Overall expect clearing, cooler and drier and breezy weather this aftn into tonight. Winds will spike up post FROPA this afternoon. Temps will be back near normal tonight with lows dropping to near 40. As mid to upper trough digs down into the Gulf later today through tonight, the winds will back to the W-SW and should see an increase in high clouds, but do not think this will have much affect on low temps tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Which model is going to handle the potential for rainfall this period. Models have been dry then moist then back to dry again concerning the potential for a coastal low from late Thu night thru Saturday morning. Of the avbl models, the GFS remains the most wettest along with rainfall occurring well inland from the coast. Will stay with a dry bias and keep pcpn inland penetration east of the I-95 corridor. The disturbed wx in the Gulf of Mexico Wed will hook up with a northern stream mid-level s/w trof dropping southeast to the Gulf Coast by Thu morning. The mid-level s/w trof remains positively tilted as it moves ENE from there staying south of the local area. At the sfc, low pressure will develop along a stalled front just west of Florida Thu, and progged to move along this boundary, ie. across central Florida Fri and NE there-after. The stalled front may oscillate westward but will keep it east of the local coastal waters. With a positive tilt to the s/w aloft, do not see much westward movement of the coastal front or any onshore movement. With the FA on the western side of the coastal front and during the passage of the sfc low, pcpn will mainly be stratiform with any isolated thunder staying over the offshore Atlantic waters. A sharp moisture gradient via identified by both cloudiness and pcpn, will increase the potential for a "busted" fcst if this gradient ends up further east ie. potential drier conditions or westward, ie. potential wetter conditions. Temps this period will run about a category below normal Thu and possibly up to 2+ categories lower depending on the extent of the clouds and rain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...A progressive yet overall dry extended forecast prevails with seasonably cool temperatures, and dry largely in part, because the atmosphere remains dry above 8000 feet. A moderately strong cold front Saturday night may bring a few clouds but column moisture appears too scarce for rain. The dynamics aloft will be running strong, so a brief shower over SE NC cannot be ruled out but no QPF expectations at this time. Sunday should bring brisk north winds, as high pressure builds from the west. The core of the high, and clear skies will team up overhead daybreak on Monday, and may greet some inland areas with sub-freezing air. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 12Z...Ceilings and visibilities are frankly all over the place. Look for varying conditions ranging from LIFR to near VFR through 15Z, improving to all VFR shortly after. High pressure will build in throughout the day with northerly winds expected, could be gusty by late morning. Winds will be on the northeasterly side this evening and through the overnight hours, with little or no fog expected. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions expected through most of Thurs. Low confidence for MVFR to IFR conditions near the coast late Thursday through Friday night in low clouds and rain.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Weak low pressure will lift north leaving a NW flow across the waters through today. A decent northerly surge will come later today into tonight as cold front sweeps through and farther off shore and dry and cold air advects over the waters. NW winds 10 to 15 kts will veer to the N-NE through tonight and will increase up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts. This northerly surge will produce an increase in seas up to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon and into SCA thresholds tonight as it combines with a longer period SE swell. Therefore will issue a Small Craft Advisory for tonight into Thurs with highest seas within a few hours on either side of daybreak Thurs. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...At the start of this period, a stalled front will lie offshore east of the Carolinas before tailing back to the west across central Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Elongated center of high pressure along the Ohio River Valley, will ridge across the area Thu. A tightened sfc pg well be apparent across the local waters due to the area sandwiched between the High`s center and the High`s center. Will likely have SCA conditions at the start of this period. This tightened sfc pg will remain across the local waters Thu into Fri. The tightened gradient associated with the sfc low itself, will peak late Fri thru friday night as the low passes by east of the local waters. Combined Winds and Seas may temporarily drop from SCA to SCEC conditions late Thu, but should bounce back to SCA levels Fri thru Fri night due to the coastal low. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Winds will begin to back to the NW and increase on Saturday as deepening low pressure passes well offshore. The low will pull well away to the NE Sunday, with moderate N-NNW winds as high pressure builds from the west. An exercise caution period is possible Sunday for N wind, and elevated seas offshore. No 0-20 NM TSTMS this period but a few showers possible late SAT/early SUN as a cold front moves through. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...43

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