Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 162046 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 346 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL AND FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING WET WEATHER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...PRE FRONTAL BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED. BASED ON THE NAM...I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CAPER FEAR REGION. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TO GIVE A BRIEF BOOST TO THE FORCING. THERE IS A LITTLE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LATER AND HAVE EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING. USED THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...FAIR AND DRY WED/THU. SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN ENSURING A DEEP LAYER OF LOW RH AND WEST WIND FLOW IN MID/UPPER ALTITUDES. PACIFIC ORIGIN SYSTEM AND GENERAL WEST TO EAST FLOW RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND MAXIMUMS WED LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. A SECONDARY BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURGE MAY RESULT IN MAXIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THU...WITH MORE/INCREASING CIRRUS THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE SPLIT FLOW FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE COVERING A LARGE PAR OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE WILL MEANWHILE BE SKIRTING THE GULF COAST. A SURPRISINGLY SLOW MOVER GIVEN THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW, THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MOST ON SATURDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IMPLYING THAT THIS WILL BE A LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE OVERRUNNING EVENT LOCALLY. RAIN MAY LAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST (WHETHER OR NOT IN A STRENGTHENING STATE) SOME DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAKLY SPLIT. EARLY IN THE PERIOD DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER DRY AIR DAYTIME HIGHS MAY TAKE A SMALL HIT WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS LOSE THE BENEFIT OF CLOUDS AND RETURN TO NORMAL OR CLOSE TO IT. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POST FRONTAL...LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT...LIKELY STAYING BELOW 10 KTS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WED THROUGH FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP AT THE MOMENT ACROSS THE WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-12 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ENDING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF A 20-25 KNOT RANGE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. FOR LATER TONIGHT...THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AROUND 0300 UTC WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUING. WILL RAISE A SCEC AS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM CURRENT 1-2 FT. VALUES TO 3-5 FEET LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...BUMPY SEAS WILL LINGER INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT RUNS THROUGH 12Z/7AM WEDNESDAY. SW WAVES 2-4 FT EVERY 4 SECONDS WILL CO-MINGLE WITH LIGHT NW CHOP AND ESE WAVE 1 FT OR LESS EVERY 10-11 SECONDS FOR A GOOD PART OF WED BEFORE WIND-WAVES EASE IN THE AFTN. BY THU 2 FT SEAS ON THE WATERS AND LIGHT N-NNE WIND. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ON THE 0-20NM WATERS WED/THU. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM TUESDAY...FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF STATES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SATURDAY...REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AS IT PASSES BY. THE ENCROACHING WARM FRONT MAY VEER THE FLOW OVER PART OF THE REGION BUT ITS TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY TRAVERSES. REGARDLESS WIND AND SEAS BOTH TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY OR SCEC REALM THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...ONCE AGAIN WITH NO REAL STRENGTH TO THE GRADIENT AND THUS NO CONCERN FOR ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...8 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK

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