Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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437 FXUS62 KILM 280725 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 320 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaching from the west will stall through mid- week before moving across the area Thursday into Friday. Dry high pressure will build into the area by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 11 PM Tuesday...Forecast area is now convection free and although latest guidance shows small chances for renewed activity do not feel comfortable completely ruling it out for the overnight period given storms passing to the north and west of us. NC counties will see the best chances for renewed convection after midnight, although confidence not especially high. Relevant portion of previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Expect areal extent of convection to diminish during the evening. Have trended POPs a little lower along the coast, while have increased them a notch across the Pee Dee and Lumberton areas. A blend of MAV/MET numbers looks reasonable for overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A large upper low will continue to evolve across the Midwest and Ohio valley Wednesday through Thursday as it slowly meanders toward the south-southeast. This feature will gradually push a cold front across the area late Thursday. Given how amplified the pattern is aloft would not be surprised if the frontal passage is delayed a little further. Thus the forecast area will remain in the warmer sector through most of the short term period and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist as well. An impulse is shown to wrap around the upper low, likely passing to our northwest during Thursday. SPC continues to highlight central NC with a Marginal Risk of severe tstms. Part of this risk area includes as portion of the Lumberton area and northern parts of the Pee Dee. The highest precipitable water values remain off the coast through Thursday with much lower values beginning to filter in from the west Thursday night. As mentioned earlier, the timing is suspect given the orientation of the front to the flow aloft. A blend of MAV/MET numbers appears reasonable each day and night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...Despite the fact that the long term begins with an impressively large cutoff to our west the weather will be pretty quiet. The reason for this is that we will be in the dry slot of the occluded surface low to our NW and the deep moisture will be off the coast. Sunday and Monday as the weakening front pushes through some of this moisture may get drawn back to the coast for some minor rain chances-all while temperatures remain close to their seasonable norms. The front washes out by Monday leaving behind a weak surface pattern while mid level heights build. There will still be no real forcing for precipitation and no low level thermal advection to change temperatures much from the values earlier in the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z...Light and variable winds setting up though inland terminals may see a light southerly breeze through the night. Even so, some MVFR fog possible just about anywhere with plentiful low level moisture but mid level cloud deck should prevent any further reduction in flight category. After sunrise VFR expected and any shower or thunderstorm activity too isolated to warrant anything other than VC save for maybe LBT where coverage could wind up a bit higher. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Scattered SHRA/TSRA through Thursday. A cold frontal passage late Wednesday into Thursday. Primarily VFR expected Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 11 PM Tuesday...latest obs continue to show very light NE winds over the waters with seas around 3 ft and no convection. This is in accordance with the present forecast. No changes planned with the latest update. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows: Weak area of low pressure will quickly move by the adjacent waters later this afternoon and evening before departing to the northeast. The resulting wind field will be variable at 10 knots or less. Seas will be 3 ft or less tonight. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...The flow will eventually become southeasterly during Wednesday in response to a slow moving cold front approaching from the west. Additional veering to the southwest with an increase in speed is expected by Thursday evening just ahead of the cold front. Seas will be 3 ft or less Wednesday through Thursday morning, then possibly 3-4 ft by Thursday evening. LONG TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Tuesday...A weakening cold front running parallel to the coast will only slightly shift through the period moving from just onshore to just offshore. It`s parent surface cyclone will be well occluded and thus deprived of its energy source and so the whole system will feature a baggy and poorly defined pressure pattern. This is good news for most mariners though as winds will be quite light and somewhat variable through the period. Seas will be slightly elevated above what such slack winds would otherwise support since spectral wave bulletins show a myriad of wave elements. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ NEAR TERM...REK/SRP SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MBB

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