Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 040439 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO RAISE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WEDGE. I PROMISE...THIS WEDGE WILL BREAK! MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ITS EVENTUAL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE 1ST LOOK AT 0000Z GUIDANCE HAS IT PARTIALLY THRU THE FA AT THIS TIME. ANYWAY...WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOWER INLAND AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. LATEST KLTX VWP DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA TO DISPLAY THE WINDS AT 1K FT...INDICATIVE OF NO CLOUDS OTHER THEN THE DENSE FOG AT THE SFC AND/OR A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT IS UNRECOGNIZABLE BY THE KLTX VWP. THUS...ONCE THE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS...IT SHOULD DO SO IN A QUICK MANNER. ONCE AGAIN CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS...FURTHER REDUCING THEM TO EITHER NONE AT ALL OR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AGAIN...WITH EITHER STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95 AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE 30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...STUBBORN WEDGE HANGING IN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DECK. LOOK FOR VARIABLE MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER AFTER 04Z. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE UPPER FIFTIES OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT STRATUS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADV IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL WATERS THRU NOON WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE DENSE FOG WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW ONSHORE AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. LATER TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKLEY DURING DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WHEN MILDER SFC TEMPS AND HIER DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...DENSE SEA FOG WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY NEMESIS FOR ALL BOATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...WITH 5 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ACROSS THE SHALLOW BATHYMETRY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3 FEET.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-053-055. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054-056. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH/TRA

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