Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 141441 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1041 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will continue today through Saturday. A cool front will drop into the area late Saturday and stall from Sunday into mid week. Above-normal temperatures today and Saturday will drop to near normal late this weekend through mid-week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1040 AM Friday...A broiling day underway, many locations will reach 90 degrees before midday. If it were not for lowering dewpoints due to diurnal mixing into the drier air aloft, a heat advisory would surely be needed. As it stands, most areas will settle between 101-104 degree apparent temps today. No mentionable POP values for measurable rainfall are slated today. Any convection that manages to fire, will be greeted by a hostile environment aloft due to a dry and warm air upstairs, and likely will not be capable of sustaining itself or spawning new convection, despite intense surface heating. No appreciable changes were made to the forecast with the morning updates. As of 222 AM Friday...Infrared satellite imagery continues to depict the strong and deep layer high pressure system over the area oriented east to west across the central Atlantic. A harbinger of things to come can also be seen in the mid Mississippi Valley as convection trudges slowly south. The ridge will eventually give way to an east coast trough but not before another very dry and warm day today. Essentially conditions similar to the past two days with good subsidence aloft with almost zero chance for convection. I once again opted for high temperatures a little above guidance. For tonight some guidance is showing convection sneaking into the northern zones very late so I have maintained the slight chance pops with persistence overnight lows in the middle 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 222 AM Friday...Expect a more favorable environment for convection to develop this weekend as a weak cold front and deeper moisture descend upon the eastern Carolinas. Model consensus has the front stalling in our vicinity or just to our west by Sunday as upper-level troughing deepens over eastern CONUS. Scattered convection Saturday afternoon will become more likely Saturday night as deep layer moisture increases, with Sunday looking like the overall wettest day. Slightly above normal temperatures Saturday will become more climatologically- correct on Sunday as extensive cloudiness knocks a few degrees off our high temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...Some very unsettled weather is on tap for most of if not the entire period. A trough will be digging into the Northeastern U.S early in the period. This will push a decelerating cold front into the Carolinas that will stall west of the coastal plain, keeping deep moisture in place locally. There are some disparities between various models regarding just how far south the trough becomes by Tuesday or Wednesday with the EC seemingly too progressive when compared to the GFS and Canadian model. The latter two keep it locked in place to our west albeit in a weakening state. This will keep POPs elevated through the long term. Temperatures will be close to climatology by day and elevated at night due to cloud cover. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 12Z Friday...Expect VFR conditions for all terminals though the TAF valid period. Once again keeping any mention of convection out of the forecast although a spot late-day shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Extended Outlook...The threat for flight restrictions due to thunderstorms will increase late Saturday through early next due to a frontal boundary that drops southward and stalls across the forecast region. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1040 AM Friday...A noticeable ESE wave every 9 seconds continues to fan ashore between 2-3 feet, accompanied by a light to moderate SSW-S chop. NO TSTMS expected today. Mariners along the inshore waters and ICW should expected frequent gusts to 20 KT this afternoon as the sea breeze intensifies, and choppier waters as a result. As of 222 AM Friday...Persistence rules the coastal waters forecast with a southwest flow of 10-15 knots through the period. There is decent low level jetting overnight into Saturday morning which may kick the winds up to just over 15 knots for a few hours. Significant seas will be mostly confined to a 1-2 foot range but some four footers may develop with the slightly higher winds late tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 222 AM Friday...The western extension of the Bermuda high will push south as a weak cold front approaches the eastern Carolinas. Winds will remain primarily from the S and SW at 10 to 15 kts through Saturday night, possibly slacking off to around 10 kts on Sunday as the front stalls well inland. Seas will range right around 3 ft Saturday and 2 to 3 ft on Sunday. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...A cold front will be stalled to the west for the entire period while high pressure remains well out to sea. This will keep the local wind out of the southwest and fairly tame in speed. Seas will tend towards 3 ft for the most part over the waters and mostly a wind wave as spectral plots are showing minimal energy associated with the 7 second SE wave component.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK/8 SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...REK/8

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