Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290726 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 PM SUNDAY...LATEST NSSL WRF INDICATES SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED. HOWEVER...EXECUTING A SFC OBS PLOT AND ANALYSIS...A DECENT SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING SFC COLD FRONT AS IT LIMPS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ENOUGH JUICE...IE. CAPE TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU MIDNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY A LOW POP AS A RESULT. HAVE TWEAKED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT BY A DEGREE OR 2...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS YET TO PUSH ACROSS. WILL BECOME A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUDS...WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND...TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE COAST. THIS BASED ON THE LATEST SAT IR IMAGERY TRENDS...ALONG WITH A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT AND DRY FOR TUESDAY...BUT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO JULY. BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MID- WEEK...BUT WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA...SW FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH SOME RELATIVELY LOWERED THICKNESSES. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER...BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AS RETURN FLOW PUSHES ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COLUMN. WHILE TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LOW-END POP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXIST WEDNESDAY AS PWATS RISE BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND THE TROUGH FLATTENS - ACTUALLY DRIVING SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY BOTH BE ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MINS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 70S EXPECTED...AND SOME UPR 70S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...FAIRLY TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A DECENT JULY 4TH WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP LOCALLY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE BUT MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE SHARPENING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WKND. THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CAROLINAS HOWEVER...SO THIS WILL ACTUALLY DRIVE INCREASING THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...EACH AFTN...AND POSSIBLE WELL ABOVE CLIMO BY THE WKND. MINS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT THANKS TO THE CONTINUOUS WARM SW FLOW. TSTM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH AFTN ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...AND AIDED BY THE SUBTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT. BY THE WKND...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO FOCUS ON DETAILS OF WHERE THE BEST POP WILL EXIST...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAN EITHER SAT OR SUN. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STALLED FRONT JUST WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SCT TO BKN LINGERING CLOUDS. THOUGH NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SO...WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...MVFR IS POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AOB 10 KTS...WITH VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS MAINLAND HAS ABATED FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THERE STILL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED CELL OR 2 TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. HOWEVER...WILL ADVERTISE THIS COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER RE-FIRE OVER THE OFFSHORE ATL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY SPORADICALLY DRIFT INTO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DURING THE PRE-DAWN MONDAY HRS. AS FOR WINDS...THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED...LEAVING AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SW 15 KT WIND. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 4 FT...AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES MAINLY OFF CAPE FEAR. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 SECONDS. NO GROUND SWELL BEING IDENTIFIED BY THE LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY VIA LATEST LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH3 MODEL RUNS. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL DRIVE THE REGIME THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE TWO FEATURES IN TANDEM WILL CREATE SW WINDS...WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 10-15 KTS...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE EACH EVENING TO 20 KTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO THE DAILY SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT SW FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL CREATE A WAVE SPECTRUM COMPRISED OF BOTH SW WIND WAVE AND A GROWING SE SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND PERIODIC SCEC STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND FROM THE WATERS. THIS WILL DRIVE SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...RISING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE EVENING. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 3-5 FT...BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE EVENINGS MAY NECESSITATE CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS AT TIMES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH/RAN SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...SGL/RAN MARINE...DCH/JDW/RAN

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