Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 232246 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 646 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend along the East Coast through Thursday, maintaining comfortable conditions. An upper ridge will expand overhead late in the week and into the weekend, bringing a return to seasonable heat and humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may return this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Ridging at the surface and aloft will be the name of the game through the period with low level northeast flow helping spread moisture in the area this afternoon. This has resulted in a healthy field of flat cumulus but with very little in the way of vertical development. Clouds will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Low level northeast flow will continue overnight with winds generally under 10 mph. Overnight lows across much of the area will dip below 70 degrees tonight, bringing an end to ILM`s days with temperatures above 70 degree streak. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface and mid level ridging will remain in control of the region through the period. Elongated surface high pressure extending from the Mid-Atlantic coast to off the New England coast will slowly shift east through the period, maintaining low level northeast flow through Thu night. Meanwhile ridging aloft will move from the Gulf Coast Wed AM to over the Carolinas later Thu, strengthening a little as it moves north. Increasing subsidence under the ridging aloft will limit deep moisture and likely suppress any convection. Mixing is likely to keep low level moisture limited during the day, especially on Wed, despite low level onshore flow. Temperatures will be near climo through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A broad ridge at the surface and aloft will dominate the pattern through the long term, although there is a bit of uncertainty at the end of the period which will depend upon the state of any tropical development and movement. At this point ensembles do not show any tropical systems influencing our area, so we are looking at fairly benign weather through the period. Subsidence under the upper ridge in combination with moisture-starved upper levels will keep a lid on convection, although the odd diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with afternoon cu developing each day, with skies clearing at night. A blend of guidance keeps temperatures a notch above seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 00Z...High pressure will contine over the TAF site through 00 UTC on Wednesday. VFR is expected with light and variable winds overnight. After the morning inversion erodes the winds will return from the northeast wind around 6 to 8 knots before slowly turning to the east at 8 to 10 knots after 18-19 UTC. Models moisture indicates scattered clouds will form between 4000 and 5000 feet by midday into the afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Surface high to the north will maintain northeast flow across the waters tonight with speeds on the high end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas around 3 ft with potential for isolated 4 ft near 20 nm. Seas will generally be wind swell dominated with wave periods of 4 to 5 sec. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...Northeast flow continues through the period as the surface high to the north becomes elongated as it retreats northeast. Gradient will remain unchanged with speeds on the higher end of the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft with isolated 4 ft near 20 nm possible. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday...A broad and weak high pressure system extending across the waters will keep winds NE to E at around 10 kts or so through much of the period, with seas of right around 3 ft. However, seas on Sunday may build to 4 or 5 ft as long-period swell from distant tropical systems impinge upon the local waters. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM Tuesday...Wilmington has broken its record for the most consecutive days with low temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer. It remains to be seen if we make it down below 70 before sunrise, potentially tacking on one more day to this record-breaking string. Wilmington`s temperature records began in 1874. Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 57 days 6/27/2016 to 8/22/2016 #2 56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012 #3 52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941 #4 48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986 #5 46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991 In Florence, SC the record for consecutive 70+ degree low temperatures has also been broken. Florence temperature records began in 1948. Florence`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees #1 62 days 6/22/2016 to 8/22/2016 #2 60 days 6/26/2005 to 8/24/2005 #3 55 days 7/ 6/1975 to 8/29/1975 #4 46 days 7/10/2010 to 8/24/2010 #5 45 days 6/11/2015 to 7/25/2015 #5 45 days 6/28/1991 to 8/11/1991 && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...REK NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...HAWKINS

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