Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 171306 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 906 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south into the area tonight and linger through Wednesday, bringing the risk for showers and thunderstorms each day. The Bermuda High will expand west over the region Thursday through Saturday. Low pressure moving across the southern states late in the week may bring unsettled conditions to the area for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 9 AM Monday...Analysis of morning sounding data and latest high-res guidance confirms earlier forecast. Only modest instability this afternoon means isolated showers at best this afternoon. Chances low enough to keep out mention of pops for the daylight hours. Previous discussion follows: The mid level pattern has now transitioned into a mostly zonal configuration with a poorly amplified trough moving across the Ohio Valley. A decent southwest flow has developed at the surface across the region in between high pressure in the Atlantic and the front associated with the trough to the northwest. The system will continue to make slow progress to the southwest with clouds and pops arriving late tonight. Guidance is consistent with the scenario which is to say a broken line of showers and embedded thunder should cross the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. We continue to advertise low chance increasing to good chance by Tuesday morning. As for today, expect another warm and breezy day under mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with overnight lows (which have warmed a little) in the lower to middle 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Primary headline this period is an uptick in rain chances as a frontal boundary drops across SE NC and NE SC and stalls. By daybreak Tuesday a cold front will already be working slowly southward with plenty column moisture through H5. Low-level onshore ENE wind flow in the low-levels and frontal convergence should help set off showers and a few TSTMS. A few weak upper disturbances along and behind the front in WNW flow aloft will provide slight upper support and pockets of divergence. Post-frontal onshore flow will knock maximums down around 10 degrees F Tuesday compared to today, with a little warming trend into Wednesday as the maritime influence wanes due to a decrease in wind- speed vectors off the Atlantic inshore SSTs. No severe weather signatures are predominant in this front. With heating Wednesday a shower or storm may pop near the boundary but column moisture will lessen into Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...A warm front will be lifting north across the area on Wednesday while mid level flow remains flat and weak. This should favor at least scattered coverage of convection and some of the deeper storms may lead to nuisance- type flooding. Things then turn quieter and much warmer on Thursday with no appreciable surface features and a weak ridge axis poking up well to our west. A backdoor cold front may sneak through later Friday leading to one last warm day but also a return of rain chances. A cooler air wedge becomes well established on Saturday. The front associated with the leading edge of this airmass may see cyclogenesis Sunday as a deep upper trough gets carved into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...VFR condtions expected through 6Z. A weakly forced cold front will drift south across the area late TONIGHT increasing clouds and the chance for showers and thunderstorms AFT 6Z. However the highest pops remain at end of this forecast period as do the better chances of flight restrictions, though MVFR ceiling possible between 6-12Z. Extended outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions possible in scattered convection Tuesday through Wednesday. VFR Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 9 AM Monday...Latest obs of SW winds at 10 to 15 kts and 2 to 3 ft seas fits in well with the current forecast. See no need to change things so latest update continues forecast as before. Previous discussion follows: The coastal waters will remain in between high pressure to the east and a slowly increasing pressure gradient from the northwest associated with a cold front. This leads to a southwest flow of 10-15 knots with slightly higher speeds than were observed Sunday. Signifiant seas will be confined to 2-4 feet. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...The marine environment will get a little messy Tuesday as NE and ENE winds behind a southward moving cold front increase to 15-20 KT and roughens up the waters with pitchy wind- wave energy. An exercise caution statement of brief Advisory is not out of the question since gusts to 25 KT may become frequent for a while on Tuesday. Marine showers and isolated TSTMS will be in the mix Tuesday into Wednesday on the waters as well although it appears non-severe at this time. Wednesday an improved day as winds ease up significantly, but a few showers or a TSTM remains possible near a stalled frontal boundary. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Some variability/changeability in the wind Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across the forecast zones. A late day southern component will become established and a few knots of wind speed will open up late in the day and into Wednesday night. Southwesterly flow will then round out the period as high pressure off Canadian maritimes extends ridge axis all the way south towards Bahamas.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK/SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MJC MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB/SHK

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