Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 130557 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 157 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING SAW STRATIFORM RAIN OF GRADUALLY DIMINISHING EXTENT...THE CAPE FEAR REGION AND WILMINGTON IN PARTICULAR EXPERIENCED A HEAVY RAIN EVENT COMPLETE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT APPEARS THAT A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATELY PLACED BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND A JUICY AIR-MASS WERE RESPONSIBLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS STILL BLANKETING NEW HANOVER COUNTY AND A FLOOD WARNING IS OUT FOR THAT AREA. GIVEN P/W VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SHOWER ACTIVITY AREA- WIDE CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SEEMS TO NOW EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FRONTAL WAVE NOW PLACED OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION. THIS ALSO NO DOUBT ENHANCED OUR RECENT BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY UNSETTLED AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REGION SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE OVER NWRN ZONES WHICH WILL BE MOST PROXIMAL TO THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS RADAR COVERAGE NOT UNLIKE THAT OF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MORE CLOUDY START COMPARED TO TODAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GROW AS HOT AND TEND TO BE QUITE SEASONABLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES WHILE STORM MOTION REMAINS BELOW 5KT SO CHANCE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAINS INTACT. RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DIPPING MUCH LOWER THAN LOW END CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ATOP OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH THEIR INTENSITY AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WE WIND UP ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST ACCORDINGLY AND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY MITIGATED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY OFFER UP A RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WEAKENING FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ENSURE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNSETTLED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES MON AND TUE IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PLAN TO CARRY CHC POP WITH A DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION. THE LACK OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN COVERAGE/ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT THINK STORMS WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FLOODING POTENTIAL. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MID WEEK. THIS FRONT HAS A MORE DEFINED TROUGH BEHIND IT WHICH WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MOVES BEFORE STALLING. ECMWF HAS THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH...SO DOES WPC...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS. BOTH MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT AND LIFT IT NORTH...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFERENT. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH THU...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH DRYING FRI. GFS IS WETTER WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POP THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE BEEN IN LINE WITH THE DRIER ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION AND AT THIS POINT CAN SEE NO REASON TO MAKE A CHANGE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW SO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN LATER FORECASTS IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURE RANGES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NARROW END WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP KEEPING HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BUT HELPING HOLD LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. PASSAGE OF FRONT MID WEEK WILL BRING BELOW CLIMO TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN NEAR KILM SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THICK MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING KLBT/KILM/FLO WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KLBT/KILM WHICH IS NEAREST A STATIONARY FRONT. KCRE/KMYR ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ANY IFR IMPROVES TO MVFR FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR DEVELOPING MID-LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INITIALLY INHIBIT HEATING AND LIFT SO THINK WORSE CASE VCSH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KLBT. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT SE-E TO KFLO AND THE THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10:30 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH 2 FT SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: OUTSIDE OF TSTMS NO REAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERALL AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE AREA. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY OVER LAND BUT TONIGHT CELLS MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET IN A MIX OF SE WAVES 1-1.5 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS AND S WAVES 0.5-1 FT EVERY 3-4 SECONDS. WITHIN TSTMS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KT PREVENTING SEAS FROM ATTAINING HEIGHTS MORE THAN 2 FT. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR THE COAST THERE MAY BE A GENTLE BACKING OF THE FLOW FOLLOWED BY A MORE PRECIPITOUS VEER ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FROPA. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE STALLING WHICH PRECLUDES MUCH OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THUS ANY HIGHER WINDS. THUS THE VEER TO ENE FLOW APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FROPA AS WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN UNCHANGED...ALTHOUGH WAVE PERIODS MAY SHORTEN UP A BIT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHERLY SURGE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LEAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF MON AND TUE GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT IS MORE DEFINED AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER NORTHERLY SURGE LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL APPROACH A SOLID 15 KT WED NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 5 FT AS THE PERIOD ENDS DUE TO THE PROLONGED AND STEADILY INCREASING NATURE OF THE NORTHERLY SURGE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...MJC/REK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DCH/MRR

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