Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 311405 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY...AND STALL OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...LATEST VIS SATELLITE ILLUSTRATES NICELY THE GRADUAL INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER SEEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE AROUND THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST GUIDANCE. AT THE SURFACE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE AREA TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THOUGH THE WARM FRONT IS SUGGESTED TO PROGRESS ONSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUGGESTS CIRRUS CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE LOW-LEVELS...LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS FROM KCHS/KMHX SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALREADY OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCES AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN DRY MID- LEVELS...EXPECT CHANCES TO BE LOW. WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND THE REST OF THE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CRESTING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES GIVEN LATEST OBS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE BEGINNING OF AN UNSETTLED...POSSIBLY EXCEEDINGLY WET...PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY. SEVERAL FEATURES WORK TOGETHER TO MAKE THE SHORT TERM COOL AND WET...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE AREA THE LAST WEEK OR SO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO ERODE THANKS TO THE PARENT VORTEX FILLING AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND THE STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING TO EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS DRIVES THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE AREA AND CAUSES MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY...A DIRECTION WHICH MOISTENS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN STALLED OFFSHORE SINCE TUESDAY...WILL LIFT BACK AS A TROUGH/WARM FRONT FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...FURTHER ENHANCING MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN...AND PWATS CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE ON SATURDAY. ALL OF THIS TOGETHER SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. WITH PWATS ABOVE TWO INCHES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND 300MB DIFFLUENCE WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY JET STREAK ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITHIN CONVECTION DURING THE PERIOD. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA FOR 1-3" OF QPF...AND THIS LOOKS MORE THAN REASONABLE FOR THE TIMEFRAME. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY FRI AND SAT...WITH NO TIME PERIOD FAVORED SPECIFICALLY FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED UPPER TROUGH...TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...FOR HIGHS. LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 ON SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND 70 WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...VERY UNSETTLED THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SLOW RETURN TO MORE TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME CAROLINAS WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY DAMPEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WHILE 5H RIDGE RETROGRADES TO WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST LATE IN THE EXTENDED. AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL TROUGH STALLED IN THE VICINITY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUN/MON...WHICH COMBINES WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES...AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC GRAPHICS SUGGESTS 2-4" OF QPF SUN-TUE...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POP SUNDAY...HIGH CHC ON MONDAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT OCCURS THEREAFTER AS THE TROUGH MORE QUICKLY ERODES TO THE NORTH AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...BUT TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE AGAIN HIGHER-THAN-CLIMO POP...BEFORE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS DEVELOPING ONLY BY MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY...PERHAPS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THRU THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASED PCPN CHANCES TO KFLO/KLBT LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN TERMS OF PCPN TIMING...BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS/MAV SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS BETTER CHANCES AT KFLO/KLBT AFTER 00Z FRI. THUS HAVE INCLUDED VCSH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT...WARRANTING A MENTION OF VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMS AFTER 06Z FRI. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS APPEAR TOO STRONG FOR ANY VSBY ISSUES...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. EXPECT GENERALLY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAND AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE...EXPECT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE DURING FRIDAY...AND THEN PUSH FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS CREATES A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FRIDAY...SO AS WINDS VEER FROM E TO SE THROUGH THE DAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EASING TO 10-15 KTS DURING SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH A 1 FT SE GROUND SWELL WILL EXIST DURING THE PERIOD...WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT WILL BE FORMED PRIMARILY BY A 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE VEERING FROM EAST TO SOUTH. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH INLAND WILL WASH OUT OVER THE LAND THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...LEAVING EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES WEST...S/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SPEEDS RISING FROM 10 KTS SUNDAY...TO 15 KTS ON MONDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SUNDAY...RISING TO 3-4 FT MONDAY ON THE LONGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FETCH.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...REK/MRR

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