Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 041836 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTH ACROSS SE NC OVERNIGHT...EXITING TO THE NE WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE SUGGEST THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE NORTHEAST SC COAST THIS MORNING HAS NOW MOVED OVER LAND. SO WHILE THE LOW HAD BEEN SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IT MAY NOT DEVELOP MUCH MORE BEYOND ITS CURRENT STATE. THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO MANIFEST AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTH...ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 12Z CHS RAOB WAS OVER 2 INCHES...COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER...ABOUT 12K FT...WILL CREATE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE BEST CONVECTION. HOWEVER STORM MOTION APPROACHING 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP SINGLE STORMS FROM CREATING A FLOODING ISSUE. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME WHEN TRAINING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE FLOODING THREAT OVERALL APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THE PINCHED GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL NC...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY GUST TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING THE LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD END ANY PRECIP CHANCES BY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO. DO THINK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE LAST 2 DAYS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD INCLUDES A WAVE OF HEAT AFTER A COUPLE RAIN-COOLED DAYS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR ...SO AN ABRUPT UPTICK IN DAYTIME MAXIMUMS TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OF NE SC AND SE NC. DEEPER INLAND WHERE RAIN REMAINS SPARSE...MAXIMUMS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. THE LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF WIND WEDNESDAY WILL AID IN VERY WARM TO HOT MAXIMUMS WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY FROM THE WEST ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POP VALUES...AND MORESO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL HELP WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT THURSDAY. CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN COOLER MAXIMUMS THURSDAY BY 4-8 DEGREES F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...OVERALL THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A RIDGE BASICALLY STATIONARY OVER TEXAS WITH TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A VERY WEAK OMEGA PATTERN THAT IS. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO BRING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SLOWLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC GETS A COUPLE OF REINFORCEMENTS FROM WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SUNDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT AND DRY WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH INTO SE NC. EXPECT INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AT ILM THROUGH AROUND 21Z...WITH DIMINISHING SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WINDS IN THE CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. THIS EVENING...THINGS WILL CALM DOWN AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO MOREHEAD CITY`S AREA. SOME LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG THE COAST HAS PUSHED WINDS CLOSE TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. THIS HAS ALSO BUILT SEAS TO 9 FT IN SOME AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHPORT. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT EAST OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN ON UPGRADING TO A GALE WARNING. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 30 KT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW NOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ANYMORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS DROPPING UNDER 20 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SEAS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TREND. CURRENT HEADLINES MAY EXTEND A LITTLE TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE BUT GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN FORECAST SEAS THIS AFTERNOON DO NOT WANT TO TRIM HEADLINE END TIMES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...A RECOVERY DAY FOR SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY STILL ELEVATED FROM THE WIND FETCH OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DROPPED SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY AS SEAS SUBSIDE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WSW TO SW WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COASTAL INTERIOR KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTER OFFSHORE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY UNFOLD THURSDAY. SEAS THIS PERIOD MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH AREAS OF 5 FT SEAS INTO LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20 KT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 236 PM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE 10- 15 KNOTS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR A SLOW TRANSITION TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS TAKES PLACE. THIS FLOW GETS REINFORCED EARLY SUNDAY BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL/III

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.