Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 251723 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1222 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Record warmth will cap off the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring showers tonight, then cooler air with periods of rain on Monday, with clearing and drying Tuesday afternoon. A warming trend is foreseen Wednesday and Thursday as deepening low pressure passes well northwest of the area. Windy and dry conditions may be seen Friday and Saturday, in wake of a cold front, with deep low pressure to the north, and strong high pressure building in from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 912 AM Sunday...Sunshine minutes/solar energy to rack up ahead of a cold front, presently bringing a wet morning to the mountains. Record warmth imminent, record max temperatures today include, ILM 81 in 1930 forecast is 81, FLO 79 in 2017 forecast 84, and CRE 77 in 1949 forecast 76. Ahead of a pre-frontal surface trough today, we should see a line of showers assisted by heating and convergence, to form and advance coastward this afternoon, between 1 PM and 6 PM. It may be 2 lines, one sprouted along the sea breeze front, being chased by another line coming in from the WNW having potentially already wet I-95 after 2 PM. A lull this evening, before a windshift and low- level over-running in rain/drizzle into early Monday. The forecast appears to account for these features, minimal adjustments for this morning. A formidable cap remains in place until stable rain arrives after midnight, so no thunder planned today or tonight. Will take a closer look at potential for elevated TSTMS Monday, as there appears to be plentiful going ons aloft in SW flow, above the cooler layer. As of 330 AM Sunday...A cold front and associated moisture remains to the west. This front will finally make a move eastward over the next 24 hours or so. With the assist from the inland moving sea breeze expect some showers to break out more inland later this afternoon and then push east. The GFS is faster with the overall front while other guidance (NAM) is slower. Overall the forecast reflects a blend with increasing pops from late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. By this time likely pops will encompass much of the area. Regarding temperatures, expect another warm one and with most areas reaching or eclipsing 80 degrees outside of the immediate beaches. Overnight lows Monday morning should remain well into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday...At the start of this period, a stalled frontal system across or just south and east of the FA will be the focus for light to moderate rains during the day on Monday. Thunderstorm parameters not all that impressive but then again this is Feb. Nevertheless, the FA is partially in the RR quadrant of the 300mb jet and a mid-level s/w trof will pass overhead during Mon. All of this combined will create decent UVVS across the FA and enhancing the pcpn. Will just include isolated thunder at this point. By this evening, the mid-level s/w trof will have moved NE of the FA and in it`s wake, the stalled front now a cold front, will drop well south of the region before stalling once again. Have indicated leftover pops for early Mon evening. The QPF range for Monday will run between 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The back-edge of the cloudiness will also drop south of the area by Tue morning with sunny skies slated for Tuesday as a weak mid- level ridge briefly affects the FA. For Tuesday night, models indicate an increase in cloudiness with pcpn possible by daybreak Wed. The stalled front from earlier, will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front by Wednesday. Have held off the pcpn until daylight Wed. CAA behind the cold front will only bring temps back down to near or just above normal thruout this period with no threat of freezing temps. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Surface winds will be veering from NE to E as Tuesday progresses due to high pressure sliding by to our north. This veering continues Tuesday night into Wednesday paving the way for advection of warm and moist air. Clouds will increase as will rain chances though the latter may hold off until Wednesday night into Thursday with the actual surface warm front. Tough call whether or not we dry out in the warm sector, the main factor being how far north the warm front lifts. If we do catch a break in the rain it`ll be short-lived as the next mid level impulse and surface wave approach from the west. This system pushes through Thursday night into Friday morning and is starting to look rather wet. This system deepens and quickly occludes off the Delmarva coast, readily pushing some colder/seasonable air into the Carolinas. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the balance of the daylight hours. Gusty SSW to SW winds, up to 20 to 25 kt, will diminish with loss of heating early this eve. Flight level categories are expected to deteriorate as a cold front reaches the area and in its wake. Showers should be increasing during the eve hours with a widespread rain developing overnight and through Mon. Will show ceilings and visibility dropping to IFR overnight and persisting into Mon morning in rain. Should see ceilings rise slightly during the later morning hours and will show an uptick to MVFR. Extended Outlook...MVFR or lower conditions possible into Mon night with rain ending. Periods of MVFR possible in scattered SHRA Wed-Thu. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 912 AM Sunday...Today will mark a more difficult spectrum to navigate over the 0-20 NM waters, as winds crank up and dominant wave periods lower to 4-5 seconds in bumpy wind-seas. Exercise caution conditions are probable beginning this afternoon, as seas build to 5 feet offshore, co-joined with frequent SW gusts to 20 kt throughout. NO TSTMS expected, but a line of showers with erratic and gusty winds may be seen early and mid evening inshore, as a line of convection moves seaward. As of 330 AM Sunday...Winds and seas have increased over the coastal waters this morning as expected. This trend will continue through late tonight as a cold front well to the west pushes eastward and is expected to be moving across the waters by early Monday morning. A southwest flow of 15-20 knots will develop in short order (where it hasn`t already) and persist through late this evening. A weaker westerly flow will then develop. Significant seas will build from 2- 4 feet to a brief period of 3-5 feet this evening before tracking downward with the winds early Monday morning. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Sunday...With the stalled sfc front across the FA Monday, winds will generally be on the light side, around 10 kt. Depending where the front stalls, wind directions will generally run SW south of the stalled front and NW north of the front. Once the front finally sinks south of the FA Mon night and high pressure ridges in, winds will become NE thruout by daybreak Tue with speeds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with some gusts up to 25 kt as a result of winds just off the deck running 25 to 30 kt and in addition a pinched gradient. This breaches SCA criteria. With a progressive wx pattern, expect winds to veer to the E at 15 kt or less Tue night as a warm front approaches from the south. Significant seas will drop to around 3 ft from Sunday`s peak of 3 to 5 ft. Four to six second period wind driven waves early Mon will give way to an ESE 9 second period ground swell. Once the cold front pushes south of the waters and a 1035mb high ridges in, 3 to 6 second period NE wind driven waves will become dominate. When combined with the ground swell, SCA thresholds will have been met. Will advertise the probable but brief SCA in the HWO for Tue. Local wind driven waves decrease-some Tue night to 3 to 5 ft as onshore winds help keep the 3 to 5 second period wind waves active. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...High pressure progressing eastward and staying well to our north Tuesday to yield NE winds turning to E and easing. Very light winds slated for Wednesday while the veering in direction continues. Southerly flow remains established on Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west. WNA is quite aggressive in building seas up to advisory levels and is seemingly too fast. As such shaved about a foot off of guidance. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.