Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 271412 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1012 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BELOW 700 MB THIS MORNING HAS LED TO EARLY CONVECTION. A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST HAS SPARKED CELLS WHILE FARTHER INLAND A COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WAS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN H7-H5 TODAY BUT WILL WEAKEN AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA. THIS IN TURN HOWEVER WILL DECREASE MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PARTIALLY INHIBIT SURFACE WARMING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT WHILE POCKETS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE PROBABLE...OVERALL STRENGTH SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ONSHORE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY PAIRED WITH 5KT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL INLAND AS SEA BREEZE STABILIZES COASTAL LOCALES AND THE BOUNDARY MAKES GOOD INLAND PROGRESS. SMALL CHANGES ON FRIDAY WITH ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH RIDGING BACK MORE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE MID RIDGE TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, IF ANY MAY BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT BEING IN THE FORECAST AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS THINGS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INFLUENCES APPEAR TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RAIN-FREE DUE TO STABILITY BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION REMAINS TOUGH TO RULE OUT INLAND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT WHILE ADDED CLOUD COVER MAY ADD A FEW TO LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL EVER SO SLIGHTLY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...IT IS FAIRLY SATURATED TO 700 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH HEATING TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS...WITH CONVECTION FIRING ONLY TWO OR THREE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS PUSHING INLAND. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MAX HEATING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1012 AM WEDNESDAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...WITH 15 GUSTING TO 20 KT KT NEARSHORE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE 3PM-6PM. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN AROUND 3 FT WITH PERIODS 6 TO 7 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 0-20NM WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY BRINGS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE FAR OFFSHORE WHILE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. A MIX OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL YIELD 2 TO 3 FT SEAS. FRIDAY WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT VEER TO EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SEAS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE DURING THE SHORT TERM REMAINS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM BUT PULLS ITS RIDGE AXIS FROM BEING TO PROMINENTLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS AND THERE MAY BE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE ONSHORE FLOW SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAKENED. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.