Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 260524 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 124 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move south and east of the area overnight with much drier air to follow and this will confine any showers on Monday to the immediate coast. A reinforcing cold front may bring a few showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday. Dry and cooler high pressure will then build into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Return flow around the Bermuda High will bring warm and moist air back into the eastern Carolinas late week and through the upcoming weekend, increasing the chance for an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 900 PM Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms blossomed along and S of a cold front invigorated by a weak wave of low pressure on the boundary and a mid-level shortwave trough skirting up the coast. The shortwave has since moved by, and with nighttime stabilization and large scale outflow, the environment has greatly stabilized. The front will continue to sag south and east and all of the forecast area should be N and W of the front at daybreak, although not by much. The drier air will struggle to make significant inroads overnight, but should have its greatest influence from EYF to LBT to UDG and points N. Have trended hourly POPS lower with isolated to perhaps scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm hanging on for a portion of the overnight from ILM to near MAO to near CKI. The risk for heavy rain has essentially ended. Still expect a good deal of clouds through the night, thinning from the NW. Should even be some stratus and patchy fog filling in overnight, mainly S of a EYF to LBT to UDG line. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Mon, a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible at the coast in association with the landbreeze/seabreeze. Otherwise we are expecting a dry day with increasing sunshine. Dewpoints will drop through the 60s with perhaps some upper 50s for inland areas as the much drier air takes a firmer hold. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s with low 80s at the beaches due to the developing weak onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Cold front should be off the coast by the start of the period as broad 5h trough settles over the eastern CONUS. Troughing helps push a cooler and drier air mass into the region for Tue and Tue night. Some low level moisture may linger in the area Mon night and the push of the cooler and drier air does not really develop until daytime Tue. Shortwave rotating around the base of the 5h trough Tue will spread PVA over the region around the time of peak heating. This could generate some convection along the weak/pinned sea breeze but there will already be an increasing amount of mid level dry air which should work to limit coverage. The shortwave will be accompanied by an increase in moisture in the 700- 500 mb layer. Will carry chance pop along the coast Tue afternoon and evening with slight chance inland. There is a fair amount of low level dry air and if storms are able to develop some could tap into the increased downdraft CAPE. An isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out but the bulk of the activity would be weaker showers and thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the shortwave and the base of the 5h trough moving in, small hail seems unlikely. Freezing level is over 12k ft and CAPE within the hail growth zone is stunted. May end up seeing storms with lower tops, if forecast soundings turn out to be correct. Shortwave moves off to the northeast Tue night, helping to spread cooler and drier air into the forecast area. Temps end up below to well below climo with lows in low 60s and an outside shot at some isolated upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Cooler and dry high pressure will become established across the forecast area through much of the period. Aloft a ridge is well establish for most of this forecast with a trough moving into the Carolinas by next Sunday. At the surface by the last half of the forecast period, return flow on the back side of the Bermuda high will see a slight increase in chances of precipiation by the end of the period with little larger scale forcing forcing present. High temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal on Wednesday and then slowly warm to normal by Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the middle 60s inland to near 70 at the coast on Wednesday before returning into the low to middle 70s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. A little uncertainty or lower confidence for the next few hours as there is an outside possibility of some MVFR BR or stratus. However feel the dry air advection is just enough to keep this limited or non existent. Cloud cover will diminish appreciably later this morning and this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Tue afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 900 PM Sunday...A cold front is expected to sink south across the waters overnight and this will shift winds from SW and W to N. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft, N and 2 ft, S. On Monday, Front will be offshore and S and with no surge expected, wind speeds will remain 10 kt or less. The direction will veer from N in the morning to E or ESE ahead of next upstream front which is expected Tue morning. Seas will be 2 ft. SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Light onshore flow at the start of the period will quickly transition to offshore as front moves east of the waters and high pressure starts building in. Large scale wind field will remain from the northeast through the end of the period. However, a weak sea breeze develops Tue afternoon with nearshore winds becoming onshore with a slight bump in speeds/gustiness. Speeds for much of the period will be on the low end of the 10 to 15 kt range. There will be an increase in northeast flow Tue night a cool air surges down the coast. Speeds could approach 15 kt late in the period. Seas will run around 2 ft. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will dominate this forecast with northeast winds at or below 10 knots on Wednesday. By Friday there will be a break in the high pressure ridge and winds will return from the south but only around 10 knots. Seas will generally range around 2 feet with an 8 to 9 second period from the southeast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...RJD/MBB SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...DRH AVIATION...SHK MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.