Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KILM 302349
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
749 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
The oppressive heat and humidity will slowly abate early in the
upcoming week. A cool front to our north will drop slowly across
the Carolinas by Wednesday and this will bring a high chance for
thunderstorms early in the new week. Temperatures will finally
return to more normal mid-summer levels after Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...The Heat Advisory has been cancelled as
heat index values have fallen below advisory levels throughout. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for portions of the lower
Cape Fear River in downtown Wilmington til 9 pm. Water levels are
expected to just reach advisory criteria near 8 pm.
The seabreeze has moved well inland and a few showers have
developed along this boundary across Robeson and Bladen counties.
All of the other showers and some thunderstorms are in association
with the Piedmont trough and continue to move east across portions
of the Pee Dee and Interstate 95 corridor. We expect this
convection will be around into the late eve before beginning to
dissipate. There is only a remote chance of any convection making
it as far east as the more immediate coast. POPs have been
adjusted accordingly. Severe weather is not expected, although a
strong storm can not be ruled out.
Low-level jetting should make for an uncomfortable night and temps
should struggle to drop below 80 across portions of the area with
upper 70s most common. Humidity levels will be high.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern through Sunday with
Atlantic ridge in place to the southeast and Piedmont trough to
the west. A deep SW flow of moist air will continue to feed into
the Carolinas. Looks like convection will once again be focused
along sea breeze in the afternoon and along trough inland on
Sunday with mainly scattered coverage.
On Monday, The mid to upper trough to the northwest will push a cold
front/trough south and east into the Carolinas. Local area will
lose cap as ridge slips farther east and minor shortwaves ride
across the base of the mid to upper trough. The increased instability
along with upper level support will produce more widespread
convection Mon aftn. The strong westerly push will steer the
storms into the area but also expect a little more organized
convection for Monday.
The H5 heights and 850 temps look like they will decrease
slightly Sun and Mon and the development of clouds and convection
should all combine to limit temps increasing greater than 95 on
Sunday and much past 90 most places on Monday. Therefore do not
expect heat advisory thresholds to be met.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...Pattern changes occur Tuesday as a trough
digs along the east coast driving a cold front into the Carolinas.
This front will be accompanied by good chances for showers and
tstms Tue/Wed as it crawls southward before dissipating on
Thursday. This dissipating is cause by the parent trough pushing
off to the east, allowing for mid-level ridge to re-blossom into
the Mid-Atlantic. The ECM/CMC stall this front longer with better
convective chances as the trough is slower to eject to the east,
but the GFS has ensemble support and its solution is more
represented by WPC and the inherited grids, so will continue to
hedge towards a warmer/drier solution late in the week and into
the weekend. Convective chances will drop back to seasonable or
slightly below, with temps right around climo Fri/Sat, after a
period of around or slightly below normal temps with higher POP
the first half of the extended.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 00Z...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to move across the inland areas this evening. Confidence is
low regarding whether or not activity will make it to the coast.
Brief periods of marginal MVFR are possible. Otherwise expect
quiet conditions overnight with the potential for fog development
low as boundary layer winds remain elevated. Anticipate VFR with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Sunday, with
south-southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts. Brief periods of MVFR
are possible in any stronger storms/heavy downpours.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...The Piedmont trough will help to keep a
rather tight pressure gradient in place this eve. Low-level
jetting should help to keep wind speeds elevated for at least part
of the late night. Expect SW winds to be sustained at up to 15 to
20 kt. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Similar pattern will continue with
Bermuda High and Piedmont trough dominating the weather and
maintaining a SW flow over the waters. By Monday a cold front will
drop into the Carolinas but will make slow progress toward the
local waters but should see a veering of wind, becoming more
westerly by Monday night into early Tues. A tightened gradient Mon
night will produce an increase in SW winds up to 15 to 20 kts and
push seas up to 4 to 5 ft in outer waters. Otherwise seas will
remain in the 2 to 4 ft range through the period. You can also
expect a better chc of thunderstorms over the waters, especially
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...A cold front will cross the waters during
Tuesday turning winds slowly from SW at 10-15 kts, to NW at 5-10
kts Tuesday night. This front will dissipate on Wednesday leaving
a diffuse pressure gradient as high pressure re-expands slowly
from the Atlantic. This will bring mostly East to SE winds
Wed/Thu, at speeds around 10 kts. Seas will be highest on Tuesday,
3-4 ft, as the SW winds and residual SE swell drive an amplified
spectrum. Behind the cold front, as the winds ease and become
variable, the wind wave will shift to the E/NE on top of the
residual SE swell, but seas fall to around 2 ft the latter half of
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.