-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KILM 171719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
119 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1:20 PM MONDAY...FIRST SHOWERS OF THE DAY POPPING UP OVER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AS A STRIP OF CU OF VARYING VERTICAL EXTENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FORMS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCI FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BECOMING MORE
COMMON AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING FOLLOWS BELOW:

A DECENT SHOT AT RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS COLUMN
MOISTURE TAKES ON A MARKED BUMP UPWARD TO AROUND 1.85 INCHES INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VAPOR ANIMATIONS CERTAINLY CONFIRM THIS
LIKELIHOOD WITH ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY FIRING OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CYCLE INTO A WANING PHASE IN CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS ONLY TO RE-FIRE IN AFTERNOON HEATING CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY WITH FANNING OUTFLOWS MEANDERING ON
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO
ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION...WHICH IS FEASIBLE GIVEN THE UPTICK
TREND IN PWAT VALUES. OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH THE SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE RETARDED BY HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
LATER TODAY...BUT BELIEVE WITH SUCH ABUNDANT COLUMN H20
AVAILABLE...ANY LOW-LEVEL TRIGGERS OUGHT TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIP
OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY...ONLY TO BE PERPETUATED BY
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOWS.

MAXIMUMS WILL BE HINDERED A BIT BY THE ENCROACHING CLOUDS AND IN
GENERAL AM EXPECTING MIDDLE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT
HOURS AND MINIMUMS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 70 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND BALMY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WET SCENARIO IS STILL ON TAP DURING THE
SHORT TERM AS A WESTERLY MOISTURE LADEN MID LEVEL FLOW KEEPS
THINGS RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. I
HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS THE LINGERING OF THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY
AND I HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME. THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FEATURES
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TEPID WITH THE
LETHARGIC NATURE OF THE SHEAR. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUS CYCLES WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. WPC IS
PREFERRING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION AND GFS MEAN. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL STILL BE WORTH WATCHING TO THE SOUTH
EARLY ON BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD THIS FEATURE BASICALLY
DISSIPATES. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY
TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE. ONCE AGAIN NO REAL STORYLINE
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WITH FORECAST VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 18Z...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KFLO
TERMINAL AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE KLBT TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID
AFTERNOON. VCSH IS MOST LIKELY WITH THE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOW.

A STRONGER IMPULSE WITH APPROACH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER SHOWERS/TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS FEATURE. PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR TEMPO
MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

SHOULD THEN BE A LULL IN CONVECTION AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY AT
INLAND TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/POTENTIALLY IFR.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS CONTINUING
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. VFR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. LATEST OBS
SHOW SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH A LIGHT SWLY WIND IN THE 10
KT RANGE. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW:

3-4 FOOT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED A
MODERATE SW WIND FIELD ACROSS THE 0-20NM WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
COMPRISED OF SSW WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 5 SECONDS OR SO...MIXED WITH
SE WAVES OF 1-2 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FAVORED
MORE-SO TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...EXPECT A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE/WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY
IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. STILL DON/T EXPECT ANY OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISTORT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW APPRECIABLY AND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY INCREASING TO THE LOWER
END OF A 15-20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF SWAN GIVES
SEAS OF 2-3 FEET TUESDAY INCREASING TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ALBEIT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY. MORE LIKELY IS A SCEC HEADLINE
FOR 3-5 FEET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES TO KEEP A FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS MAY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES ON MORE OF A
BERMUDA/AZORES CONFIGURATION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A 10-15 KNOT
RANGE AS ANY EMBEDDED SURGES WILL BE WEAK. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
CONTINUE IN A 2-4 FOOT RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK