Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 050036 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 836 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S. COAST...AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 745 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING...THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ALBEIT WEAKENING...WILL APPROACH THE ILM CWA FROM THE SW AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE ILM CWA IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES BY 9 PM. THE BEST AND MOST FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS VIA LATEST TRENDS AND VARIOUS 18Z MODEL DATA WILL LIE SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF BOTH ILM NC AND SC CWAS. THEREFORE...WILL INDICATE AN OVERALL LOWERING POP TO ISOLATED BY DAYBREAK SUN. BUT WILL ILLUSTRATE THE HIEST OF THESE POPS REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF BOTH ILM NC AND ILM SC CWAS...WHERE OUTFLOWS AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SEA BREEZE TO PARTIALLY AID SOME OF THE RE-FIRING OF THIS CONVECTION. MIN TEMPS BASICALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. PREVIOUS....................................................... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS CLEAR OF CONVECTION SO FAR. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INLAND HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURE RISES AND WE HAVE YET TO REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL HELP KICK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SPC EARLIER UPGRADED THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM A GENERAL THUNDER AREA TO MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WITH THE GREATEST RISK BEING FROM DAMAGING WINDS. A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING THE GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES...DIURNAL HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY...THE CAROLINAS WILL SEE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WHILE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS REMAIN SITUATED ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORTWAVE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER WHICH FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND TREKS NORTHWARD. S/W ENERGY FROM THE FEATURE NEARS THE CAROLINAS BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO MAKE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND A MOISTURE- RICH ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING EACH DAY...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TREMENDOUS RIDGING AND RECORD HEAT IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA...CAUSING DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING OF THE FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS THE RIDGING INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL BE MOSTLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POP WILL REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCES...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A DYING COLD FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS DIVING INTO THE RIDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT WILL SHOW A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WITH AT LEAST WESTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD...SO WHILE TUE/WED AND SAT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL BOUNDARIES...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THU/FRI. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AT KMYR/KCRE 02-03Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS STORMS SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. OTHER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ENE TOWARDS KFLO/KLBT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT MAINLY VCSH FOR THOSE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT THUS NO FOG IS EXPECTED. TOWARDS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS COULD SEE A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AFTER SUNRISE SW-WSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DECREASING. BY AFTERNOON THE BEST CHANCE OF VCSH/VCTS WILL BE AT KFLO/KLBT AS WINDS WILL BECOME S-SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...AND AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS NEAR SHORE AND SW ELSEWHERE...AT 10-20 KT SPEEDS THRUOUT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. COMBINATION OF FORECASTED WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA WATERS FROM THE SW...WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL WATERS AFTER 9 PM. LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ITS DIMINISHING AND/OR WEAKENING TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONCE IT PUSHES INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND INTERACTS WITH THE GULF STREAM...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. PREVIOUS........................................................ AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SW WINDS MAINTAINING IN THE PRESENT 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE PRESENT 3 TO 4 FT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE AREA COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENED GRADIENT. AS FOR SEAS...WILL SEE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR- SHORE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL INLAND FROM THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4 FT EACH DAY...WITH A WEAK SE 9 SEC SWELL COMBINING WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP THE SPECTRUM.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SGL NEAR TERM...DCH/REK SHORT TERM...SGL LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR

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