Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240700 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Remnant tropical moisture from previous storm Cindy will pass across the region this afternoon through early Sunday, bringing a good chance of rain, which may be heavy at times overnight. Slightly cooler and much drier air will move into the region early next week. A warming trend is expected mid to late of this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Saturday...Water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture across the Tennessee Valley poised to move east today as broad troughing sets up across the Eastern U.S. A cold front will move across the Carolinas slowly through tonight associated with the trough. This along with the Piedmont trough when combined with precipitable water values of well over two inches points to widespread convection this afternoon extending into the overnight hours. We have maintained likely to categorical pops for this time. Localized flooding will likely be the primary threat although there is some shear present and a wet microburst or two is possible. Temperature forecast is straightforward with highs around 90 and overnight lows in the middle 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Saturday...By daybreak Sunday the axis of maximum PWAT values will be edging offshore, taking the potential for the heaviest of rainfall with it to sea. Surface convergence however will linger farther inland intrinsic with the surface trough, and thus rain should be ongoing at this time, in a scattered to likely fashion, favored across the eastern zones where the overlap with higher column moisture prevails. Through the day on Sunday showers should be tapering off from west to east primarily due to H8-H6 drying. The surface trough/front will cross the coast Sunday afternoon so maximum temperatures Monday may be a few degrees cooler compared to Sunday even though the air may be slightly rain-cooled Sunday. Relatively cooler air to usher in Tuesday, middle and upper 60s and drier. Moisture will linger along and near the coast Monday where isolated convection may form, but could just end up as cumulus.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Friday...Mid level troughiness sharpens through Tuesday. Initially a dry westerly flow but a slightly more moisture-laden WSW flow through Tuesday. Daytime temperatures will be held a bit below climatology through this time frame. The trough axis appears to swing through on Wednesday bringing a more decided drying. The rest of period will be characterized by a building upper ridge over the Southeast and Bahamas. This will mark a transition back towards seasonable temperatures and isolated convection mainly during the diurnal maximum.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period. For the next few hours there is some possibility of stratus developing but guidance has backed off a bit and will address later if needed. Later today showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly widespread as deep moisture returns to the area along with the Piedmont Trough with a cold front late in the period for good measure. Certainly some MVFR and even IFR is possible and the next couple of TAF issuances will be better equipped to detail the timing. Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in thunderstorms Saturday night and into Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous Saturday evening and overnight. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday...Quite gusty across all areas this morning and the coastal waters are no exception. The winds oddly enough are from a belt of strong 850mb winds that can be traced back to tropical storm Cindy. The stronger winds will essentially remain over the waters while subsiding inland. Expect a roving range of 20-25 knots to at times 15-20 knots through tonight. Seas will be 4-6 feet with a small craft advisory continuing. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Saturday...This will be an improving marine period as both winds and seas drop off, as a front nears and moves off the coast. SW wind-waves will dampen through the day Sunday, but an opposing NW-N later Sunday will cause a bit of sea state confusion but conditions will still improve because the post frontal winds will not be all that strong. Monday however a slight high pressure surge could bring 20 KT gusts so seas may hold in a 2-4 foot range. Sunday morning visibilities offshore may range from 1-3 NM in areas of heavy showers and storms. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday...Not a typical summertime pattern in place for most of the period. A sharpening mid level trough will be in place. A series of weak surface boundaries may come through but with only very minor fluctuations of wind direction, though a northerly component will dominate. Wind speeds never really look to exceed 10kt by much though a few higher gusts will be possible. Seas will average 2 to occasionally 3 ft with near shore wave shadowing much more pronounced than usual this time of year where SW winds much more common.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SHK

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