Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 312232 RRA AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 634 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow to leave the area even as the actual system finally moves northeast of the area during Wednesday. The risk for showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls. The front will move offshore early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...Remnants of Bonnie continue to be the big story this aftn as the center rotates slowly south of Cape Fear. High res NSSL WRF and HRRR have done quite well displaying the axis of heaviest rainfall which has setup across the inland Cape Fear counties...and this will be the primary rainmaker through tonight. Very high dewpoints combined with temps in the 80s have created a highly unstable environment...which combined with PWAT around 1.9 inches is serving as fuel for convection with heavy rainfall. This band of rain pivoting across the area is on an instability gradient...and the anti-parallel vector of moisture transport to upwind propagation is driving regeneration and heavy rainfall moving across the same areas. This band has weakened as it "rains itself out"...but more rain bands and tropical moisture are expected to move back onshore and follow a similar pattern. Have carried categorical POP for Cape Fear...ramping down to SCHC west of i-95 where instability remains high...but the atmosphere is much drier. Much of this convection will wane with loss of heating...but overnight tropical showers will remain a possibility although in a weakened and less intense form. Mins tonight will drop to a degree or two either side of 70...and while low stratus is a near certainty everywhere...locations that received rainfall today should also develop some fog. Local UPS fog procedure forecasts fog primarily Horry county and NE...and this seems reasonable where crossover temps will likely be exceeded and the surface is most saturated. Fog potential inland is less certain so have left out any mention inland...but light fog is still possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...The remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie will continue to move very slowly to the NE this period...maintaining its influence on the local weather. Wednesday morning...the remnants will likely be just east of Wilmington and will drift NE to finally exit the local coastal waters Wednesday night. As this low drifts NE...a continued tropical airmass will support scattered showers with heavy rainfall...but the heaviest rain should be focused NE of the CWA on Wednesday. This is due to at least somewhat drier air noted on today`s WV imagery and in forecast PWAT values advecting in from the W/SW. Still...expect scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across the eastern third of the CWA...aided by the sea breeze boundary as temps rise again into the low/mid 80s. There will be more sunshine inland...but enough dry air should preclude much convection. Most showers/tstms will wane after dark but another very warm night is forecast with lows falling only to around 70. The residual low pressure from Bonnie will move towards the Outer Banks Thursday...and the driest day in some time is expected locally. Dry air from the west...drying NW flow...and building heights aloft will keep convection mostly capped on Thursday. Cannot rule out isolated showers and will maintain inherited POP mostly for sea breeze activity...but Thursday will be a much better day with highs in the mid 80s and lows again falling to around 70 beneath more widespread sunshine and aftn diurnal cu. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...The mid level pattern will continue to evolve slowly as would be expected as we transition into the summer months. A poorly defined west to southwest flow will be in place through the weekend over the southeast. With precipitable waters remaining well above 1.5 inches, the Piedmont trough will keep good chances of showers and thunderstorms in the area for the weekend. Difficult to distinguish what day will be wetter or drier. There is a subtle drying of the mid levels Sunday so this would appear to be the better (drier) of days. By Monday and Tuesday a decent mid level trough will allow a cold front to move across the area. A drying trend will commence as well as cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 00Z...The remnants of the tropical low will slowly meander northward. Convection should wind down to just isolated activity after 02Z. Models seem in fairly good agreement in introducing IFR stratus after 06Z. The NAM is more pessimistic, keeping IFR ceilings for much of the day. My mid-day, expect convection to break out again, mainly from CRE to MYR. FLO will probably not see any convection, with a VCSH mention for LBT. Northeast windds will become more easterly in the afternoon. Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...The remnant circulation of Bonnie continues to move across the coastal waters this aftn...and will move very slowly NE tonight. The center will remain over the coastal waters...likely moving to a position east of Cape Fear by early Wednesday. This is a weak system so winds will be pretty light...and after the aftn sea breeze eases this evening winds will become more uniform. However...the direction will be dictated by the remnant low. Waters north of the system will experience E or NE winds...while winds behind it will be N or NW. Speeds 10 kts or less expected regardless of direction. The light winds will allow the SE swell to remain dominant within the spectrum through tonight...creating seas of 2-4 ft. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...Remnants of Bonnie will finally "exit stage right"...or in this case coastal waters Thursday as it moves slowly off to the NE allowing for broad ridging to expand across the waters on Thursday. Winds Wednesday will be dictated by the departing storm...E/NE far NE waters...W/NW southern waters...becoming SW at 10 kts or less all waters late. On Thursday as the ridge expands winds will remain out of the SW...but increasing to 10-15 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft both Wednesday and Thursday...with a SE swell dominating the spectrum Wednesday before a southerly wind wave amplifies during Thursday. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday...A relatively weak pressure pattern will be in place through the period. The gradient will tighten up a bit on Sunday as a decent front edges closer from the west. Southwest winds on the lower end of a 10-15 knot range will suffice for Friday and Saturday. With the slight increase in the gradient, winds should increase to the top end of the range. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet early increasing a bit with the winds Sunday to 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43 MARINE...JDW/SHK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.