Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 260857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
357 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH WILL BRING INCREASING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GA AND
WESTERN SC WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS A LITTLE FASTER EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ALLOWING SW FLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
ASIDE FROM A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. COOL AIR
OVER THE OCEAN WILL CONTRAST STRONGLY ENOUGH WITH INLAND AREAS TO
GENERATE A WEAK SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CALM WINDS TONIGHT
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP LOWS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
INLAND...LOWER 40S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. A DEEP S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CHC OF PCP HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THE SFC FLOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT ON SAT BUT THE WINDS
ALOFT WILL CARRY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH MINOR PERTURBATION RIDING UP IN THE SW FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THESE CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT RISES INTO
EARLY SATURDAY TO PRODUCE WARM TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 60S MOST PLACES.

THE PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RIDE UP FROM
THE GULF IN SW FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PCP
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOWS BEST CHC OF PCP
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
EVEN FARTHER WEST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT. BY SUN AFTN EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH
RIDGE HOLDING ON ALOFT LEAVING COLD FRONT WELL WEST STILL AND
DECREASING CHC OF PCP AND POSSIBLY SOME SUNSHINE ALONG THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AS MID LEVELS DRY OUT SOME ON SUN AFTN. PCP WATER VALUES
START OUT AROUND A HALF INCH SAT MORNING INCREASING UP TO 1.5
INCHES SAT NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND AN INCH BY LATE
SUN AFTN IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING. A STRONG
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN
DRYING AND COMBINED WITH WAA WITH PRODUCE WARMER TEMPS UP GREATER
THAN 65 MOST PLACES.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS
BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A VERY BROAD TROUGH ROTATES OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ALMOST ZONAL FLOW WITH A
SLIGHTLY SW TO NE FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY WILL GET STRUNG OUT IN THIS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW.
IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DROP JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MONDAY BUT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STALLED BEFORE GETTING A PUSH FROM
MID TO UPPER TROUGH BY TUES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER
TEMPS...CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PCP THROUGH MONDAY. ONCE FRONT
MOVES SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK A BIT BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR TO
PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. OVERALL...A CLOUDY
AND DAMP LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPS TO START AND A COOL
DOWN FOR MID WEEK...HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR.

MID TO UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WED
INTO THURS. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FROM THE SFC THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT
THE MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING SUNNIER WEATHER FOR WED AND
THURS WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
SHALLOW FOG IN SPOTS. SO FAR THE ILM AIRPORT HAS DEALT WITH THIS THE
MOST...AND VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER SUNRISE WITH LIGHT NE/E WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. VFR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE INLAND
CAROLINAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AIR TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH
TEMP/DENSITY CONTRAST ACROSS THE BEACHES TO CREATE A WEAK SEABREEZE.
WE`RE NOT TALKING ABOUT MUCH INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT WIND
DIRECTIONS NEARSHORE SHOULD VEER SE BETWEEN NOON AND ABOUT 6 PM.

SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2 FEET IN A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7-8 SECONDS...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. A S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS
THROUGH SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP FROM LESS THAN 3 FT
ON SAT UP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. FOR SATURDAY...WNA
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT UP TO 17 SEC LONGER PERIOD NE-E SWELL
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD DROP OFF THROUGH SUN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
GET STRUNG OUT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND
SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH BY TUES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND AS BOUNDARY
MOVES FARTHER SOUTH WITH SW-W WINDS EARLY MONDAY COMING AROUND TO
THE N-NE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUES BEHIND FRONT. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN THROUGH TUES INTO MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THROUGH THE MID COUNTRY LEAVING N-NE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. THIS
WILL CAUSE A RISE IN SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/SGL








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