Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 040439
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1139 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE
COLD AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR
INVADING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...MAIN UPDATE HAS BEEN TO RAISE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE COLD
AIR WEDGE. I PROMISE...THIS WEDGE WILL BREAK! MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ITS EVENTUAL LIFT NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THE 1ST LOOK AT 0000Z GUIDANCE HAS IT PARTIALLY
THRU THE FA AT THIS TIME. ANYWAY...WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOWER INLAND
AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT. LATEST KLTX VWP DOES NOT HAVE
ENOUGH DATA TO DISPLAY THE WINDS AT 1K FT...INDICATIVE OF NO
CLOUDS OTHER THEN THE DENSE FOG AT THE SFC AND/OR A VERY SHALLOW
STRATUS DECK THAT IS UNRECOGNIZABLE BY THE KLTX VWP. THUS...ONCE
THE WEDGE FINALLY BREAKS...IT SHOULD DO SO IN A QUICK MANNER.

ONCE AGAIN CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS...FURTHER
REDUCING THEM TO EITHER NONE AT ALL OR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED AGAIN...WITH EITHER STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE IS EXCEPTIONALLY MILD
AIR WEDNESDAY AMID WHAT HAS BEEN A FRIGID WINTER...WITH FEBRUARY
RANKING AS THE 5TH COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 141 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING
WHICH CRUNCHES OUT TO ABOUT A 1 IN 34 YEAR OCCURRENCE OF COLD. THE
OTHER NOTABLE HIGHLIGHT IS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
FOLLOWED BY A BITING INTRUSION OF GLACIAL AIR AND LINGERING PCPN.

STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM THE BULK OF IT THURSDAY...LOOKS
TO BE NEARLY A HALF INCH ACROSS SE NC AND LOCALITIES WEST OF I-95
AND CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NE SC AND COASTAL SC. POPPED
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER THURSDAY GIVEN JET SUPPORT AND SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK.

SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE DROPS...WHERE MAXIMUMS THURSDAY MINUS
MINIMUMS FRIDAY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND
JUST A FRESH REMINDER OLD MAN WINTER STILL HAS BREATHINGS INTO
EARLY MARCH. AN OVERLAP OF NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING PCPN WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW 8Z-10Z
OR 3AM- 5AM EARLY FRIDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH TROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME
SIGNS OF RELAXING BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE
TROUGH USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDES ALONG THE
OLD FRONT OFFSHORE SATURDAY WARRANTING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
MARCH SUNSHINE WONT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE TO WARM THINGS UP WITH
HIGHS ONLY THE 50S BUT THE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT LOWS TO THE MIDDLE
30S. LETHARGIC WARMUP CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ECMWF THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...STUBBORN WEDGE HANGING IN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE DECK. LOOK FOR VARIABLE MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER
AFTER 04Z. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO THE UPPER FIFTIES
OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG BUT
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WELL WEST OF THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE SEA FOG ALONG THE
COAST...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT STRATUS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING IFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...DENSE FOG ADV IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
WATERS THRU NOON WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY THE DENSE FOG WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW ONSHORE AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. LATER TONIGHT...BUT MORE LIKLEY DURING DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY WHEN MILDER SFC TEMPS AND HIER DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS...DENSE SEA FOG WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY NEMESIS
FOR ALL BOATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...WITH
5 FOOTERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ACROSS THE SHALLOW
BATHYMETRY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFRIENDLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THURSDAY...AS
THE WARM AIR MAY STRUGGLE REACHING THE COLD DENSE AIR ABOVE THE
CHILLY SSTS IN PLACE. IF NOT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CERTAINLY BEHIND IT...AS VERY COLD AIR
SPILLS OVER THE WATERS...WITH AT A MINIMUM 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED
LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER HAZARD PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA FOG AS BALMY AIR TRACKS OVER THE
FRIGID WATERS...REDUCING VSBYS AT TIMES. RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT MAY ALSO RESTRICT LINE OF SIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS INITIALLY AND MOST OF FRIDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES THIS
SEASON THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES IN WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING TO AROUND TEN KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. IF ANYTHING WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT WITH NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE FEATURES. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS YIELD NO SURPRISES WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES FRIDAY...MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. BY LATER SATURDAY VALUES DROP TO 1-3
FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053-055.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ054-056.

NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.

MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/TRA




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