Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 010711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...AMORPHOUS...ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE NEAR TERM WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING OFFSHORE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE BROAD AND FLAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
UPPER LEVELS A BROAD ARE OF RIDGING PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND GUIDANCE SHOW DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
NEAR TERM AS THE DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY
PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL
LEVELS AND WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AT RIGHT AROUND 70 WE CAN
EXPECT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S OVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND RIGHT AROUND 90 FOR OUR SC COUNTIES.
LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND ANY STRONG TRIGGERS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
DAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP DEVELOP A HEALTHY CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN EXTENSIVE
EARLY MORNING STRATUS DECK BURNS OFF. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW TO A NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAK AND ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY ACROSS
TEH COASTAL CAROLINAS. CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION IS
VERY LIMITED EVEN AT PEAK HEATING DUE PRIMARILY TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
CONTINUES THE MINIMAL POPS THROUGHOUT. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING MID LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INITIALLY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE.
THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS OF THIS PATTERN ARE MIXED IN STRENGTH AS
WELL WITH A STURDY NORTHEAST PUSH OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AND WEDGE CONFIGURATION SETTING UP. THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS A WEAK
REFLECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PLENTY OF
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST THE OPPOSITE...JUST ABOVE
GUIDANCE/CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR ON TAP OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW FEW/SCT LOW CIGS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT OVERALL SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS
ARE LIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TO
CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING WHICH
FEATURE WILL PREVAIL...THUS HAVE KEPT A MIXTURE IN GOING FORECAST
ATTM. ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AOB 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WATERS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MANAGEABLE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL DECAY FROM PRESENT 3 FT RANGE TO RIGHT
AROUND 2 FT LATER THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...ELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS UNDER A POORLY
DEFINED PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE MARINE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE
SEVERAL HOURS OF OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THURSDAY VIA A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BY THE AFTERNOON THE SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS AROUND
ONCE AGAIN TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN A LOW 1-3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY OF WEAK
WIND FIELDS WITH THE FLOW DICTATED BY THE SEA BREEZE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR SO. BY SATURDAY A NORTHEAST PUSH WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A LONG STANDING NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL


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