Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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561
FXUS62 KILM 200802
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
302 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of mid level systems will bring unsettled conditions
through Monday. The strongest system will move across Sunday
and into early Monday. High pressure will build back in toward
the middle of next week. A weak cold front will move into the
southeast and stall in the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...A front will approach from the S and should
sneak into the Forecast area before stalling. A weak wave of
developing low pressure on the front will skirt the coast as it
moves N of the area today. The front will then have a tendency to
sag S tonight as the wave moves NE and well offshore.

An upper trough will pivot across the Southeast states around an
upper low in the Northern Plains through midday. As the upper level
support pulls away, the showers are expected to become increasingly
diffuse. A large area of showers across the upstate of South
Carolina was moving toward the I-95 corridor as of 07z. Will carry
highest pops across the I-95 corridor this morning, up to a likely
risk across Marlboro and Darlington counties. The risk for showers
will decrease as you move eastward toward the coast. The risk will
also be highest this morning, but will remain above threshold in
most areas into the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light.

Clouds today should keep temps rather uniform across the area, lower
70s. However, an onshore flow will keep the beaches in the mid and
upper 60s.

We do not expect measurable rainfall tonight, although will show
POPs beginning to increase to slight chance near daybreak for
southern and westernmost areas. Can not rule out some spotty drizzle
tonight. Model soundings continue to support low stratus and fog
development and have included areas of fog in the grids at this
time. Widespread fog may turn dense overnight as dewpoints remain
elevated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Warm front lifting to the north on
Friday and mid level ridging should allow for waning rain
chances as the day wears on. Although cloud cover will decrease
slightly it will still be a mostly cloudy afternoon. Despite
this most locales should warm to 70 or better. Similarly the
clouds will help bring a very mild Friday night with low
temperatures just a few degrees shy of seasonable highs. Late
Friday night into Saturday the mid level ridging moves offshore
while another slug of mositure lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain chances will increase as the day wears on. Overall amounts
may be rather limited however as the flattening ridge does hold
on just enough to shunt most of the shortwaves north and west of
the local area. This will hold less true heading into Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...A complex storm system will be on the move to the
east/northeast Monday with some residual moisture and forcing aloft
continued to advertise good chance pops winding down in the evening.

In the wake of this system a broad and deliberate pattern change
begins to take shape. Brief mid level ridging moves across Tuesday
as strong troughing takes shape out west. This feature will deepen
and move east with a full cyclonic flow in place by the end of next
week.

At the surface, weak high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday will give
way to a cold front Thursday. A decent southwest flow of moisture
with this system warrants at least some mention of pops for
Thursday. Colder temperatures arrive for next weekend with the
expectation of below freezing readings (overnight lows) returning
for the first time in a while.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Clouds lowering and thickening from the W and the S.
Expect MVFR ceilings to fill in through 12z throughout with perhaps
some sct IFR bases across KFLO and KLBT around daybreak and into the
morning hours as some light showers reach the area. These
showers may briefly drop visibility to MVFR inland, but
prevailing VFR visibility is expected to continue. MVFR ceilings
are forecast to hang on through the TAF period inland. At
KMYR/KCRE and KILM, ceilings should lift to VFR. Expect
widespread stratus and fog to develop tonight at all the TAF
sites with a frontal boundary lingering in the area. A look at
model soundings support IFR or lower conditions first at KCRE
and KMYR and so have introduced there 03/04z.

Extended outlook...IFR/LIFR likely developing Fri night and
continuing into Sat morning. Tempo MVFR or lower ceilings and
visibility expected in showers and thunderstorms Sat afternoon
through Sun night. Weekend convection will have the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...A front, approaching from the S, will move
across the waters as a warm front this morning. SE winds will veer
to SW with its passage, but speeds will not exceed 10 to 15 kt. Seas
of 1 to 2 ft this morning will build to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight, the front is expected to sag southward as weak low pressure
along the North Carolina coast moves NE and away from the area. A SW
or WSW wind should hold across the waters, but wind speeds will be
10 kt or less with seas holding near 2 to 3 ft. There is some
concern for sea fog development and reduced visibility late tonight
and have included in the gridded forecast at this time and through
the day Sat.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Sea fog may result in reduced visibility
through a good portion of the day Sat. A front will be in close on
Sat and a wave of surface low pressure is expected to move NE along
this front. This will bring widespread showers and some
thunderstorms across the waters, especially Sat afternoon. Then on
Sun, another wave will be moving along this wavering front and then
finally the strongest and deepest area of stacked low pressure will
make its way across the area beginning Sun night. Waves of
widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected with each of
these features. Convection will have the potential to produce at
least gale force gusts Sun and Sun night. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to get underway Sun morning and then to
persist into the early part of the work week. Sustained winds will
peak around 25 kt with higher wind gusts expected. Seas will peak in
the 6 to 9 ft range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Low pressure will be departing to the northeast
leading to a continuation of strong southwest winds at least for a
few hours Monday. Expect speeds of 20-25 knots through midday
dropping to 15-20 by the evening. A more offshore flow develops
Tuesday with similar speeds of 15-20 knots although leaning toward
the lower end of the range most of the day. Significant seas will
show a similar trend with very high values early in the period (7-10
feet) dropping considerably Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD/MBB
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJD



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