Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 200535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY SINCE DUSK AND
WERE ALREADY BELOW 50 DEGREES IN MANY COMMUNITIES. THERE WAS A
THIN VEIL OF JET CIRRUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE...
OTHERWISE THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS A BELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BE CALM AND THE COLUMN DRY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STRATOCUMULUS MAY MAKE A
RUN FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THESE CLOUDS SEEMS TOO PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CENTER.

THE BIGGEST PIECE OF THE FORECAST PUZZLE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS HOW
COOL TEMPS WILL GET. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID 30S.
WE ARE NOT FORECASTING RECORD LOWS...BUT CERTAINLY COLDER THAN WHAT
IS NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
WITH MID 40S MAINLY FOR THE BEACH COMMUNITIES. POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED INLAND. THESE TEMPS WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
FROST.

SINCE TEMPS WILL BE FALLING TO MORE OR LESS THE DEWPOINT VALUES...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. HOWEVER...THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR ABOVE THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE ARGUES AGAINST GROUND
FOG BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...DESPITE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...TANGIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES BY DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY. MINS EACH
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NW TO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
COAST. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH STRONG UPPER
SUPPORT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...STACKED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THU AND FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SLOW BUT STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AS THE 5H LOW EXITS
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS MAINTAINS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW CLIMO WED BUT WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
FRI AND A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN THE BULK OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THIS FEATURE WEAK WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL RUN WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 5H LOW AND A SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL. FOR NOW DISCOUNTING THIS GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND THERE IS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...A SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH WILL FOR AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS BY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE OF THE VA-NC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NNE WINDS THIS EVE WILL VEER TO ENE BY SUNRISE. A DEVELOPING LAND
BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR
LESS...BUT UP TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN WATERS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM A SOLID 15
KT WED MORNING TO 10 KT OR LESS BY FRI. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/COLBY
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM...3
AVIATION...8





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