Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 131636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1236 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

High pressure is building in the Carolinas from the northeast
United States and will remain across the region through Sunday.
A strong cold front move across the area on Monday bringing near
normal temperatures through much of next week.


As of 930 AM Friday...stratus clouds cover the entire forecast
area as a cold front has moved south and east of the area. The
models are indicating the clouds will slowly erode by late
afternoon. The current hourly guidance is struggling to show the
temperatures moving out of the middle to upper 70s this
afternoon. The current forecast is for highs around 80 so will
drop today`s high into the upper 70s. Low temperatures will be
in the middle to upper 60s.


As of 3 AM Friday...High pressure will extend over the eastern
Carolinas through the period as a stalled front dissipates
offshore. NE to east flow on Saturday becomes more southerly on
Sunday, allowing for a warming trend through the weekend and
also advecting in a thin layer of mositure below 850 mb. Further
aloft the column will remain quite dry through the period. P/W
values will range around an inch, much closer to normal for this
time of year. This will put a damper on convection, with most
places remaining dry through the weekend and only the slight
chance for mainly diurnally-driven showers. Temperatures will
remain above normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s. With
dewpoints down in the 60s we will see widespread lows below that
recently experienced. Still above normal, but at least not in
the 70s.


As of 3 PM Thursday...The chief headline this period remains
the pattern change more indicative of early Autumn, arriving
early next week, as the upper trough presently over the Pacific
NW and northern Rockies, translates toward the US East Coast.
GFS and ECMWF depictions appear in very good agreement on this
scenario and certainly reckons to be more in sync with climo,
and well overdue with the exceptionally warm pattern recently.

As a result, a cold frontal passage is expected across NE SC
and SE NC Monday, with the surface front reaching the FL
peninsula by Tuesday. We may see 80s persist into Monday if the
front arrives in the afternoon, but by Tuesday, maximum
temperatures should run 9-13 degrees Fahrenheit cooler, with the
drier and cooler pattern holding through mid-week. Beyond this
, high pressure wedge pattern appears to portrayed, which should
keep a near normal temperatures regime in place. Showers or a
TSTM looks to be favored Monday ahead of the front, but looking
at cross-sections of RH and column moisture, no guarantee
because the moisture profiles are not all that wet.


As of 18Z...TAF sites on the cool moist side of a frontal
boundary that has slide to the south of all locations this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings still occurring and expected those
ceilings to temporarily rise in the VFR category this afternoon.

Low level moisture trapped in by the high pressure ridging along
the lee side of the Appalachians will keep probabilities high
for ifr/lift ceilings and visibilities to develop after 06 UTC
and dense fog and low ceilings will be at their max between 10
and 13 UTC. Winds are expected to be light from the north
through the forecast period.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible again Sunday
morning from reduced ceilings and/or vsby. Isolated to
scattered MVFR/IFR produced convection is possible on Monday
ahead of a strong cold front. Cooler drier high pressure is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday.


As of 930 AM Friday...The cold front has moved south and east of
the coastal waters. The wind direction will be from the
northeast around 15 knots for most areas with 15 to 20 knots
around 20 miles off the coast north of Cape Fear. Seas are
running around 3 to 4 feet with 5 footers 15 to 20 miles off the
coast north of Cape Fear. Therefore, will raise a small craft
exercise caution north of Cape Fear through 6 PM today.

As of 3 AM Friday...A slack gradient with high pressure
overhead will keep winds light at around 10 kts most places,
possibly 10 to 15 kts early on for our southern-most waters.
Seas will range right around 3 ft through the period.

As of 3 PM Thursday...A manageable southerly flow will prevail
Sunday into early Monday, ahead of a cold front, shifting to
north sometime on Monday. Expecting a lagtime, from when winds
shift to north, to when a surge of wind buffets the waters. As a
result we may not see `Advisory` or `Cautionary` conditions
until Monday night, which may persist through Tuesday. The winds
at 15-20 kt, with higher gusts will build seas to 4-5 or 4-6
feet late Monday and Tuesday, and as a result an SCA is
certainly possible, especially with mild water in place, aiding
mixing of robust boundary layer wind-speeds.





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