Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 290847
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
447 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE COOLER BUT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OCCURS ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...BY
DAYBREAK...THE SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE ATL WATERS OFF
THE OUTER BANKS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED
SOUTHWARD...ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE ILM CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
FURTHER DROP SOUTH OF THE ILM CWA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS
MORNING. NOT MUCH OF A SFC PG AFTER ITS PASSAGE WITH THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN YIELDING A NW DIRECTION INITIALLY THEN VEERING TO
THE N OR NE THIS AFTN. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...FROM SFC TO
850MB...NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTN. THIS
WILL ENABLE BOTH THE FORMATION OF THE MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE MIDDAY HRS...AND ALSO ALLOW ITS PROGRESSION INLAND THIS AFTN
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AFTN TEMPS AND LOCAL
SSTS WILL RUN 15+ DEGREES FURTHER FUELING ITS PUSH INLAND. OTHER
THAN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE FA TODAY WILL BE PCPN-FREE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT THIS MORNING AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W TO NW DUE
TO SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE RIDGING ALOFT AFFECTING THE SE STATES.
LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU
TO OCCUR THIS AFTN...WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH
THE ILM CWA BY SAT DAYBREAK... WHICH WILL ALLOW CI/CS TO PARTIALLY
MOVE OVERHEAD VIA VARIOUS MODEL RH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS.

TODAYS MAX TEMPS WILL EXPERIENCE SOME HELP FROM A DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND FIELD SFC THRU ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL YIELD A VEERING WIND TO
THE N OR NE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR
LESS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT REMAIN PINNED DUE TO WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISHING. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWER 80S
OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST PRIOR TO THE SEA BREEZE.
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS EARLY SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BECOMING SW-
WSW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL ENABLE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FA BOTH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE
STATES ACROSS THE FA EARLY SAT. ITS RIDGE AXIS BY SAT EVENING WILL
EXTEND OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS FROM ITS CENTER WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE COAST FROM THE NE STATES. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO RETURN NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE FA SAT NIGHT TO NORTH OF
THE FA DURING SUNDAY. MODELS THERE-AFTER ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT IN
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND DEEP THE MOISTURE BECOMES ACROSS THE FA.
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS WILL SPORADICALLY PUSH ACROSS
THE FA SUN THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEIR DYNAMICS AND AN UNSTABLE ATM WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LATE SUN MORNING THRU DAYBREAK MON. AM
CONCERNED THAT POPS EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS ARE RUNNING TOO HIGH
ACROSS THE ILM CWA. HAVE TWEAKED THEM LOWER TO 50 PERCENT OR
LESS...AND KEPT THE HIER POPS NORTH OF THE ILM CWA. AS FOR
TEMPS...STAYED ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO
LOWER POPS AND LESS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE ONSHORE AND
VEERING WINDS THIS PERIOD...NE-E SAT VEERING TO SE-S SUN...WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN CHECK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUES. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS ON MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN MON NIGHT PUSHING THIS FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE ECMWF IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...BUT INSTEAD IT LINGERS OVER NC/SC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG IT PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT WELL SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BRINGING CLOUDS AND PCP BACK IN THE FORECAST
FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THEREFORE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER AIR MASS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUES WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS WETTER WEATHER FOR TUES. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
LOWER END POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT.

BY WED A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
THRU 13Z...ESPECIALLY THE TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

SFC LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC ATTM...WILL ACCELERATE TO OFF THE
OUTER BANKS BY DAYBREAK. THE CURRENT SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES ESE TOWARD AND
OFF THE NC COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FOR THE FLO
AND LBT TERMINALS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA THIS MORNING...AND IN EARNST
THRUOUT THE DAY TODAY. ANY CEILINGS OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HRS WILL SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. AFTER THE CFP...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NW AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXING GRADIENT THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT TO
YIELD A VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE...WINDS BECOMING 140-170 AROUND 10 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMS...THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS WINDS SFC-850MB DROPS TO
LESS THAN 15 KT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE DAYS
INSOLATION COULD PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU...OTHERWISE SKC TO PREVAIL
INTO THRU THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE CU DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS AND
SOUTH OF THE ILM WATERS BEFORE STALLING THIS MORNING.
INITIALLY...WINDS TO BECOME W TO NW 10 KT THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND RELAXED SFC PG...WILL RESULT IN WINDS
FURTHER VEERING TO THE N TO NE AT 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTN. FOR
TONIGHT...A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED HOWEVER WILL
TRY TO IDENTIFY A DOMINATING DIRECTION. THE RELAXED GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN 10 KT OR LESS FOR SPEEDS. OTHER THEN ISOLATED -SHRA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE THRU
TONIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THRUOUT
TODAY...DROPPING TO 2 FT ACROSS THE ILM SC WATERS. WIND WAVES AT 4
TO 5 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SEAS SPECTRUM THIS
MORNING. A 1 TO 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 9 SECOND PERIODS
WILL THEN BECOME DOMINANT PLAYER THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...SFC RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NE STATES...WILL PARTIALLY AFFECT THE ILM NC WATERS
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF NE-E 15 KT MINI SURGE ACROSS
THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE E-SE THRUOUT SAT NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY SUN...RESULTING IN
WINDS FURTHER VEERING TO THE S TO SW SUN THRU SUN NIGHT. THE SFC
PG WILL TIGHTEN-SOME AFTER THE WFP...RESULTING WITH 10 TO 15 KT
SPEEDS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. FOR SAT...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS AT 2 TO 3 FT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 3 TO
5 SECONDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD...AND AN
EASTERLY GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIODS ELSEWHERE. WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 5 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT...AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT BY DAYBREAK MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
SHOULD DRAG THIS COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH TUES AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THIS FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUES
POTENTIALLY KEEPING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON TUES. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FT WILL REACH UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS MON AFTN AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN SLOWLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW
HEADING INTO TUES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH


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