Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280809
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
409 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FAIR AND MILD
WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. A WET FORECAST IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE
COAST TODAY BRINGING A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE EARLY FALL SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE IS PAINTED WITH WIND-BLOWN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SPRUNG FROM
TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY. PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILD WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MARK MUCH OF THE DAY. METAR
AND AVIATION REPORTS REVEAL A MID-LAYER CLOUD DECK COVERING VERY
SOUTHERN NC AND ABOUT ALL OF SC THIS MORNING. AM EXPECTING SUNNY
BREAKS AT TIMES UNDER THE DIRTY RIDGE BUT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY
BE IMPACTED A DEGREE OR TWO OVER SC.

ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY ERODED
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...A WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS EVIDENT IN RADAR
ANIMATIONS. THE NSSL WRF 4KM MODEL RESOLVES THIS FEATURE AND MOVES
A WEAK LOW CENTER ONSHORE INTO SC THIS EVENING. THIS IS BELIEVABLE
GIVEN RADAR DATA...AND SEVERAL OTHER MODELS PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR TODAY...GIVEN A PROPENSITY FOR
ZONES OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE. MODEL SLICES OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TODAY SHOW A WARM DRY AND CAP ABOVE 12KFT...SO SHOWERS IF ANY
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF OR OF LOW-QPF CHARACTER.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NOT EASY STREET BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND
A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS...MOST LOCALS WILL APPROACH OR
CREST 80 DEGREE TODAY. POTENTIALLY SC WOULD BE WARMEST BUT CLOUD
COVER MAY HAVE A SAY ON FINAL MAX-T DISTRIBUTION. THIS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY WHERE LBT...A NORTHERLY SITE...WAS THE MILDEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MON THROUGH TUES. THE SFC LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH BUT A
TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ALIGNING ITSELF RIGHT
UP THE CAROLINA COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. THE MID TO
UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR PCP THROUGH LATE MON INTO EARLY TUES...BUT LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOW THE GREATEST QPF REMAINING SOUTH AND WEST OF LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH MON WITH
PCP WATER VALUES REACHING OVER 2 INCHES IN A DEEP SATURATED
COLUMN.

AS THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF SHORE THROUGH TUES...SHOULD
SEE GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING
FARTHER EAST THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE E-NE. BY
TUES A DEEPER DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON BACK END OF SYSTEM HEADING
INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER LAYER DRYING IN
N-NW FLOW ON BACK END OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED THROUGH FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTED AS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS LOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLEVIATE A WEDGE TYPE
SCENARIO WED THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW. TEMPS SHOULD REACH JUST AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
ESPECIALLY FRI AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.

IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE BUILDS UP THE EAST COAST
MID WEEK...SHIFTING EAST THROUGH FRI AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
FOLLOWS BEHIND IT. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH FRI WITH BEST CHC OF PCP FRI EVE INTO EARLY SAT.
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO SWING THROUGH ON SAT KEEPING WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH COULD SPELL OUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...-DZ/-RA POSSIBLE AT KCRE/KMYR OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS
LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS KMYR/KCRE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS. ANTICIPATE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE
COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY MVFR DUE TO LOW
CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS ON WEDNESDAY/
POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SEAS STILL ROUGHED UP NORTH OF CAPE FEAR DUE
TO PERSISTENT NE WIND...AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS.
SOUTH OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS...WAVE SHADOWING WAS RESULTING IN
MAINLY 3-4 FT SEAS INSHORE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR
OFF THE SC COAST AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST TODAY...MOST LIGHT
HOWEVER AND TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET OVERALL...HIGHEST OUTER WATERS AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COMPRISED OF ENE WAVES 2-4 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND ESE
WAVE AROUND 2 FT EVERY 8 SECONDS. OUR LOCAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BECOMING
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FROM THE SHOALS NORTHWARD AND OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT
A TROUGH WILL EXTEND UP INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BEFORE MOVING EAST
TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
BUT OVERALL MORE E-NE TO START BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS LOW WRAPS
UP AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TUES. BY TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO WITH
SEAS INCREASING UP TO 4 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT A DECENT
NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH WED INTO THURS WITH WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MJC/SGL







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