Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 082341
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
641 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. A DRY ARCTIC FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID THROUGH LATE WEEK. COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON MAY ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR THIS EVENING. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A FAST CLIPPER
SYSTEM. LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPING PRECIP COVERAGE ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF MODEST...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN ANY PLACE THAT SEES RAIN.
THIS IS TOO LIGHT TO AGGRAVATE RECENT FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AIR MASS WAY TOO
WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. MAIN CONCERN IS BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING FROPA. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WARMED A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HAVE
FOLLOWED SUITE. MOST READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S PRIMARILY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER REMAINING COUPLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINE THIS PERIOD COOL AND DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POST FRONTAL CHILLY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED OVER NE SC AND SE NC. NO APPRECIABLE FORCING THIS
PERIOD AND OVERALL DRYISH COLUMN CONDITIONS WILL RESTRAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FROM GEARING UP. 875-750 MB CLOUDS MAY
TRAVERSE THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FULLY EXPECT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNKEN
INTO THE 20S. DUE TO ANTICIPATED BREEZES BOTH MORNINGS APPARENT
TEMPS/WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 13-21 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WEATHER FOR WHICH
ROBERT FROST WOULD LIKELY APPROVE...BOTH IN ITS NEW-ENGLAND TYPE
COLD AND CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LATE WEEK AS AN ABNORMALLY COLD
AIR MASS PLAGUES THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING LEAVES BLUSTERY AND COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. 850MB TEMPS OF -7C TO -10C WILL KEEP TEMPS
WELL BELOW CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND LOWS INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A
BAROCLINIC GRADIENT NEARBY...ON WHICH AT LEAST A WAKE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS/ECM BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTN...AND WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IF QPF CAN
OCCUR. LOCAL TOP DOWN SUGGESTS AN RW/SW MIX...AND WITH AN OTHERWISE
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE "THE ONLY OTHER SOUNDS THE SWEEP OF EASY WIND
AND DOWNY FLAKE." NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST ATTM OF COURSE...BUT
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

DRY AND EVEN COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THIS FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING BY SUNDAY TOWARDS -20C. WHILE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP ON THIS EXTREME COLD...THE TREND HAS BEEN THERE AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS VERY COLD VALUES. THESE
TEMPS WILL POTENTIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AS WELL ON THE
STRONG CAA AS WELL...SO "AN HOUR OF WINTER DAY MIGHT SEEM TOO
SHORT"...OR LONG IF VENTURING OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS WIND CHILLS
MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH FLO AND LBT AND WILL
APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT AN HOUR. WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL BE
FROM THE WEST AND WILL BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR POURS IN. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL STATIONS FOR ABOUT
THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF TAF TIME. SKIES MAY SCATTER OVERNIGHT BUT
A CEILING WILL PROBABLY BE IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK...LIKELY A VFR
CEILING. TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ENTRANCED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC AIR AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTING OVER 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 PM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
4 TO 6 FT SEAS AND WINDS UP AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

WIND SHIFT UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WATERS MORESO INLAND. EXPECT A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP IN FULL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY 0600 UTC
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A
20-25 KNOT RANGE. SEAS ARE STILL A LITTLE CHURNED UP DUE TO THE
STORM YESTERDAY BUT HAVE DIPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY AS THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS SHOULD DO
THE TRICK WITH 8-10 FEET EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...AN UNWELCOMING MARINE ENVIRONMENT TUE AND WED
WITH ADVISORY WEST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALLER
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR-SHORE ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES BUT FARTHER OUT
SEAS WILL WORSEN. GUSTS TO 30 KT A GOOD BET ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BOTH DAYS. SEAS GENERALLY 3-7 FT BOTH DAYS AND HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUE/WED BECAUSE OF THE
BLUSTERY WIND-SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BOOKEND THE PERIOD BEHIND
A COLD FRONT JUST BEFORE THE PERIOD...AND A SECOND ONE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ALL DAY SATURDAY...WILL
BE 15-20 KTS...BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY LIGHT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHEST
DURING THE GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...FALLING FROM 3-5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN RISING AGAIN TO 3-5 FT LATE SATURDAY WITH
A NW WIND CHOP THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
WEAK GROUND SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TWO FOOT POSITIVE ANOMALIES AT THE DOWNTOWN RIVER GAGE HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER FOR THIS EVENING. THE EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY REACHED 6.61 FEET...WHICH IS CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO BE A BIT LOWER. IN ADDITION TO
FLOODING...WE COULD SEE BLOW-OUT TIDES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR THE BEACHES...WITH WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES AS MUCH AS 3
FEET BELOW NORMAL FOR MYRTLE BEACH ACCORDING TO ESTOFS GUIDANCE.
ETSURGE GUIDANCE NOT AS EXTREME. WILL MONITOR SITUATION AND ISSUE
ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...SHK/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK/REK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...REK


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