Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
319 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

High pressure will affect the Carolinas through the end of the week.
This will result in the continuation of dry weather. Humidity
will increase by the weekend. An area of low pressure moving
through the Bahamas and to Florida on Sunday into Monday, will be
watched closely for possible tropical development.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will
ensure a quiet remainder of the afternoon and overnight period.
There does appear to be another area of low level convergence
working its way down the coast overnight, coincident with an area
of increased low level moisture. Appears this feature will remain
offshore but it could result in isolated showers developing just
off the coast after midnight. Temperatures overnight will be
typical of late August with mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70
along the coast.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Deep ridging remains in place over the
Carolinas through the period with strong mid level subsidence
limiting moisture aloft. The center of the 5h ridge slowly migrates
north Thu, ending up centered over or just west of the local area
later on Fri. Meanwhile the surface high elongates northeast as its
influence slowly weakens. Low level northeast flow will continue
around the southwest side of the high, pushing shallow moisture into
the region. The increased boundary layer moisture will help develop
scattered diurnal clouds each afternoon but subsidence under the
ridging will keep clouds on the flat side. Temperatures will be near
to slightly above climo with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Center of mid to upper ridge overhead
through the weekend will shift slowly north and weaken as
tropical system makes its way west from the Bahamas. At the sfc,
weak high pressure will remain to our north. This will maintain a
deep easterly on shore flow through at least Monday. The ridge
aloft should suppress convection for the most part through Monday
but will see some clouds pass overhead at times and some daily cu
development with an isolated shower or two along. Overall a dry
weekend into early next week, in terms of rainfall, with only
isolated showers, but will continue to have a summertime air mass
in place with temps running near to above normal most days with
overnight lows several degrees above. Should see a slight dip in
temps over the weekend into early next week as 850 temps show a
minor drop but overall fairly consistent summer time temps through
the period.

As ridge weakens aloft, the onshore flow will allow for increased
potential for showers especially as tropical system moves west
from the Bahamas heading into mid week next week. Most models show
a weak tropical wave/low reaching the south Fl coast by early
Monday, but then the GFS shows it moving up the southeast coast to FL/GA
coast by Wed while the ECMWF is faster as it keeps it on a more
southern track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico,
strengthening as it reaches the western Gulf coast. For now, it
looks like it will remain quite far south at least through Tues.


As of 18Z...Other than possible early morning MVFR fog for LBT,
high confidence in VFR through the TAF period.

High pressure aloft and at the surface will continue a modest
northeasterly wind, becoming light and variable or calm
overnight. Scattered to occasionally broken fair weather CU with
bases around 5 kft will persist through the afternoon hours,
fading this evening with only scattered cirrus remaining.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog
through Monday, otherwise expect VFR.


As of 300 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow of 10 to 15 kt will
continue overnight as high pressure remains centered north of the
area. Modest increase in low level moisture along with some weak
convergence may result in some isolated showers across the waters
overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...Elongated high pressure to the north
will maintain northeast flow through the period. Speeds will be 10
to 15 kt but winds may acquire more of an onshore component each
afternoon, especially Fri, as the gradient relaxes and a weak sea
breeze develops. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft through the period.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak high pressure at the sfc with center
just north through the period. Overall expect a deep E-NE fetch
at the base of the ridge through the period. This will maintain
easterly winds 10 to 15 kts through much of the period. This
easterly push should produce seas 3 to 4 ft through much of the
period with some 5 fters possible in outer waters. WNA model shows
the forerunners from Gaston, a longer period up to 10 sec E-SE
swell, reaching the waters by Sat night and then greater easterly
swell up to 16 seconds reaching the waters by Sun evening.


As of 300 AM Wednesday...Shortly before 2 AM this morning
Wilmington`s official temperature here at the airport touched 69
degrees. This ends the streak of consecutive days with low temps 70
degrees or warmer at 58, now the all-time longest streak in
Wilmington history dating back to 1874.

Wilmington`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees
#1  58 days 6/27/2016 to 8/23/2016
#2  56 days 6/29/2012 to 8/23/2012
#3  52 days 6/22/1941 to 8/12/1941
#4  48 days 7/ 6/1986 to 8/22/1986
#5  46 days 6/28/1991 to 8/12/1991

Yesterday morning the streak of consecutive 70+ low temps in
Florence was broken at 62 days. This is also an all-time record for
Florence dating back to 1948.

Florence`s Consecutive Days with Low Temperatures 70+ degrees
#1  62 days 6/22/2016 to 8/22/2016
#2  60 days 6/26/2005 to 8/24/2005
#3  55 days 7/ 6/1975 to 8/29/1975
#4  46 days 7/10/2010 to 8/24/2010
#5  45 days 6/11/2015 to 7/25/2012
#5  45 days 6/28/1991 to 8/11/1991

From a climate perspective, the summer of 2016 has been interesting
in that daily highs and lows have been among the warmest average
readings in history without having any individually extremely hot
days. In Wilmington since June 1st our average high temperature is
the fifth hottest in history and average low temperature is the
third hottest, but the highest temperature this summer of only 98
degrees was not exceptional at all. Florence since June 1st has had
its seventh hottest average daily high temp, record hottest daily
low temp, but the highest temperature of the summer at 98 degrees is
actually cooler than the "normal" hottest annual temp of 101.





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