Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 160230
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
930 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will reach across the Carolinas as it moves by to
the south Thursday through early Saturday. A fair day Saturday
may be followed by a chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday.
High pressure will build in late Sunday through Tuesday. A
chance of rain will return to the area the middle of next week
as a storm system moves across the Southeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

IR satellite loops and obs show rapidly clearing skies this
evening with temperatures dropping down into the 40s. The front
is now well offshore and expect an uneventful yet quite chilly
overnight period. Forecast on track with no changes needed.
Previous discussion follows:

Cold front accelerated off the coast a little after noon with
cooler high pressure starting to build in from the west. Across
western locations cold advection has begun with temps dropping
10-15 degrees in less than an hour. This trend will spread east
over the next few hours with temperatures holding in the low to
mid 50s. Cold advection will continue overnight with 20-30 kt
northwest winds just above the shallow boundary layer funneling
cold air into the region. Radiational cooling will be minimized
by winds overnight, despite clear skies, but lows still end up
dropping a few degrees below climo on the back of the cold
advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Surface high will build in from the
west during the period as mid level trough in place Thu exits
east and is replaced by shortwave 5h ridge Fri. The transition
to ridging aloft will be accompanied by the surface high
shifting off the southeast coast. Waning cold advection and the
aforementioned mid level trough will keep temperatures below
climo. May see some afternoon cloud cover, especially across
inland NC Thu as moisture associated with weak, elongated
shortwave dropping into the trough spreads over the area. Late
morning through mid afternoon will be on the breezy side with
30-35 kt winds at the top of the mixed layer. These strong winds
aloft should mix down to the surface in the form of gusts. At
the same time drier air filtering in will drop RH down near 30%
(and possibly a little lower in places) and may lead to some
fire concerns, although rainfall today should prevent issues.
Wind speeds drop considerably with the loss of heating and
weakening gradient Thu evening/night.

Return flow develops on Fri with combination of low level southerly
flow and increasing heights aloft pushing highs into the mid 60s
Fri. Above climo temps continue Fri night with lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...High pressure moving east of the
Bahamas on Saturday will produce a W-SW flow over the Carolinas.
Clouds will spread northward ahead of a shortwave tracking
across from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Appalachians late Sat into Sunday. Some pcp is also likely Sat
night. By Sunday morning the low will be tracking off the coast
with deeper NW flow developing as high pressure builds in from
the NW. This will produce clearing skies and dry weather late
Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the
Carolinas. The center of the high will be nearly overhead Mon
night and will move off the coast to the east through Tues. This
will allow a W-SW return flow to develop on Tuesday, but a cold
front will begin to drop down from the north on Wednesday as a
low pressure system moves across the Gulf Coast states. This
should produce some unsettled weather for the middle of next
week. Temperatures remain above normal with a slight cool down
on Sunday, but otherwise temps into the 70s most days with
plenty of sunshine over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period with w to nw winds.  Speeds tonight should run less than 10
kt.  It is possible winds may diminish enough early for patchy MVFR
BR to develop but the probability of that occurring is too low for
inclusion in the TAFS attm.  Wind speeds invof 10 kt are expected
after 12Z with higher gusts possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR but look for gusty W and NW
winds Thursday in wake of a departing low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

The cold front has now dropped well SE of the waters and NW
winds of 15 to 20 kts are showing up at the buoys. Seas now
range from 4 to 7 ft most places. Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect with no changes. Previous discussion follows:

Cold front will move east of the waters shortly with offshore
flow developing in its wake. Strong flow ahead of the front has
pushed seas close to 10 ft at 41013 and with occasional gusts
over 40 kt outside of convection. Switch from southwest to west-
northwest winds will temper seas overnight but combination of
pinched gradient and cold advection will keep offshore flow
close to 20 kt overnight with seas gradually diminishing from
the current 4 to 8 ft to 2 to 5 ft by the end of the period.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Gusty offshore flow continues Thu as
gradient and cold advection are slow to weaken. West-northwest
winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue through the day Thu before
starting to decrease and become more westerly Thu evening. Seas
will continue decreasing dropping to 2 to 3 ft by Thu evening.
Winds drop under 15 kt Thu night, becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt
Fri and Fri night as another weak low pressure system slowly
tracks east along the Gulf coast. Seas will remain 2 to 3 ft Fri
and Fri night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday... High pressure moving east of the
Bahamas on Saturday will produce a W-SW flow over the waters
around 10 knots. Saturday night into Sunday an upper level
disturbance will move across the southeast. This may produce
some variable winds, but the winds will shift to the NW as the
sfc reflection tracks off to the east of the waters on Sunday
and high pressure builds in from the NW. The NW winds will veer
around to the a more northerly direction Sun night into early
Monday as the high to the north moves toward the NC/VA coast.
Seas will be on a general downward trend Sat into Sun as winds
diminish and remain off shore. Overall expect seas less than 3
ft through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK/III
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RAN
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ



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