Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 271713
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1213 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure building in will move offshore on Monday. A
warm front will cross the area early Tuesday followed by warm
temperatures, breezy south winds, and scattered showers through
mid-week. A cold front passage will bring clearing skies late
Thursday into the upcoming weekend, with seasonably cool
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

Temperatures rapidly rising this morning through the 40s and
with plenty of sun and weakening CAA expect we will be well in
the 50s shortly. Forecast in good shape with no changes needed.
Previous discussion follows:

A crisp start early this morning will undergo 25-30 degree
temperature rises today as continental high pressure moves into
the area, offering near cloudless skies and low humidity levels.
The air-mass remains resident into Monday so another chilly
overnight period tonight can be counted on. High clouds from an
upstream wave will stretch into the region late tonight, which
may impede ideal longwave heat escape into the pre-dawn hours.
Minimums daybreak Monday 33-37 inland, around 40 by the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headliner this period `increasing
rain chances` into Tuesday as short-wave energy ahead of a cold
front picks up a moisture tap. Monday expect mainly clouds as the
dry continental air mass holds on, but erodes into late Monday. A
1/4 inch or less of rainfall expected Tuesday. The strong warm
air advection will bring soaring temperatures well above normal
Tuesday into the upper 70s mixed with the showers, and balmy,
gusty wind of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Wednesday will be the warmest day of this
period with widespread 70s for highs, possibly a few 80 degree
marks depending on the extent of the cloudiness and possible
pcpn. Wed starts out with an amplified pattern aloft with
ridging and its axis having moved off the East Coast of the U.S.
while a cutoff low over the north central U.S.takes shape. The
tapping of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will provide the
necessary moisture for clouds and pcpn. The upper cutoff low is
progged by models to push east to and across the Great Lakes by
midday Thu. A decent vort or midlevel s/w trof will rotate
around the cutoff low will bottom out around Louisiana early
Wed then lift NE to the Mid-atlantic and NE states by late Thu
morning. The direct dynamics from this vort stays west and north
of the ILM CWA, however, 300mb jetstream dynamics indicate the
SE U.S. and the mid-Atlantic area will be on the RR Quadrant of
this upper jet, meaning decent UVVS will occur. And this so
happens to As of 3 AM Sunday...Primary headliner this period
`increasing rain chances` into Tuesday as short-wave energy
ahead of a cold front picks up a moisture tap. Monday expect
mainly clouds as the dry continental air mass holds on, but
erodes into late Monday. A 1/4 inch or less of rainfall expected
Tuesday. The strong warm air advection will bring soaring
temperatures well above normal Tuesday into the upper 70s mixed
with the showers, and balmy, gusty wind of 20 to 30 mph in the
afternoon Tuesday. take place Wed night thru early Thu just
prior to the sfc cold frontal passage. Thus will have frontal
dynamics, jetstream dynamics and a progged SSW to SW 40 to 50 kt
low level jet at less than 1k feet via GFS Bufr soundings. All
of this points to a decent shot of pcpn Wed aftn thru Thu
morning. PCPN type will primarily be showers with isolated
thunderstorms. The convection will depend on the availability of
instability. In other words, the convection threat will come
from high shear and low Cape scenario. Have continued to
illustrate isolated convection during that time frame until the
CFP early Thu. The isolated severe threat still looks too low to
mention in the forecasts at this time.

After the CFP, look for slowly improving conditions later Thu
thru Fri. The CAA surge and clearing skies will lag well behind
the cold front, likely occurring Thu night and Fri. Thus, Thu
max temps could again reach 70+ degrees with partly to variably
cloudy skies. For Fri and Sat, a return back to normal climo
temperatures with around 60 for highs and upper 30s to around 40
for lows under mainly clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR/no sig weather expected this 24 hr TAF period.

Nearly clear skies today. Calm winds early this morning will become
NW-NE 5-8 kts. This afternoon at KCRE/KMYR winds will become E-SE,
and will likely become light and variable aob 5 kt at KFLO/KLBT as
the center of high pressure moves in.

By late afternoon winds will become light and variable at all
terminals. overnight high clouds will increase ahead of the next
approaching system.

Extended outlook...Tempo MVFR from scattered showers Tue. Chance IFR
early Wed. Tempo MVFR/IFR from numerous showers/isolated
thunderstorms late Wed thru Thu morning. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the
latest update. Previous discussion follows:

Latest obs show seas of 3 to 4 ft and light northerly winds.
Winds easing off earlier than anticipated so may be revising sea
heights for the near term forecast downwards with the next
update. Previous discussion follows:

ENE waves 3-5 feet every 6-7 seconds highest offshore and gusty
N winds early this morning will prevail at least through the
morning. The gusts will ease this afternoon as the surface high
migrates a bit closer to the coast. Sea heights accordingly will
ease gradually by a foot or 1.5 ft later today, thus an
improving marine trend on tap through the near term period.
Winds to lighten and veer onshore into early Monday as the high
center nears the Outer Banks. No TSTMS or VSBY restrictions
expected this period.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Chief concern this period is worsening
marine conditions into Tuesday as southerly winds increase ahead
of an upstream low pressure system. Small Craft Advisory
Conditions appear likely sometime on Tuesday as seas build to
6-8 feet every 8 seconds by Tuesday evening offshore. Marine
showers can be expected Tuesday and gusty S winds of at least 25
KT. A few TSTMS are possible offshore tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...Looking at SCA conditions likely for both
days. Wed will be the 2nd day of strong SSE to SSW flow at 15 to
25 kt. Depending on local SSTS, winds of 30-40 kt just off the
deck, could mix down to the ocean sfc as Gale force gusts Wed
aftn thru early Thu morning. The chance for convection will
occur ahead of the cold front from Wed aftn thru Thu morning,
the latter time is when the cold front pushes offshore. The sfc
pg loosens during Thu allowing wind speeds to diminish-some.

Significant seas will become fully risen under the strong SSE-
SSW flow during Wed, with 5 to 8 ft likely, up to 9 ft outer
waters especially off Cape Fear where the onshore flow will help
push in higher SSTs across a portion of the ILM coastal waters
enabling those stronger wind gusts to possibly mixing down to
the sfc. Periods will run from 7 to 8 seconds, ie. a pseudo or
fresh swell. With an offshore wind direction during Thu, seas
will only slowly subside to 3 to 6 ft by the end of the day,
Thu.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...DCH/MJC/REK



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