Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 200828
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
428 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY WILL
BRING SOME MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WHILE ALSO KEEPING THE
WEATHER A BIT UNSETTLED. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED TROF AXIS LYING ACROSS THE FA...WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY
DAYBREAK THU. THIS ENABLES A TRUE NW FLOW...DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS...TO AFFECT THE BI-STATE REGION MAINLY AFTER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AID WITH THE PRODUCTION OF HIGHER MAX TEMPS AFTER THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE FA INDICATE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO
OCCUR THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM ANY DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE YESTERDAY.

A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT S/W TROF ALOFT...WILL PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK BUT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE MID
AFTERNOON HRS. THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTN/EVENING. PWS FROM VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. WINDS THRU THE ATM COLUMN...SFC TO 800MB VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 KT. THEREFORE...THIS
WILL ENABLE A PROGRESSIVE INLAND PUSH TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE
MANIFESTATION OF THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD...WILL BECOME A PLAYER TO ENABLE CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD.  OVERALL...LOOKING AT 20-30
POPS FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA. MAX TEMPS
ARE PROGGED SLIGHTLY LOWER BY A DEGREE OR 3 FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
MAXES...AND WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS OUTPUT. PREFER THE NAM MODEL MOS
GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. A LATE DAY SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD FAVOR
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALON THE SEABREEZE IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DISPLACED UNUSUALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH AND THIS SHOULD
MINIMIZE CONVECTION CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES. SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PROFILES NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT BUT STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LIGHTNING RATES.
STORMS MAY BE CLOSE BY TO OUR NORTH TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. A
NW FLOW SQUALL LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT INDICATED BY THE WRF. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND GENTLER WITH
ITS DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER VORT AS WELL AS SURFACE BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
AND IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ON FRIDAY.
INTERESTINGLY BOTH MODELS` MOS STRINGS NOW SHOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. NOW BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY FEATURE A MAX HEAT INDEX OF
AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER NRN ZONES TO 105 OR BETTER ALONG SC COASTAL
ZONES WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE JUXTAPOSED.
HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THOSE LATTER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BRING AN EASING OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE REGION. THE WEATHER MAY
STAY RATHER UNSETTLED THOUGH AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS SLOW TO
MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE VERY SLOWLY CREEPS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MEANWHILE THE HIGH STILL
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER SEASONABLE
DESPITE THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.

EXPECT VFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITH CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL TOWARDS DAYBREAK WHEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
INLAND AND ELSEWHERE WHERE EARLIER RAINS OCCURRED. AN HOUR OR 2
AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AOB 10 KTS. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ,MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING IN...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHC AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK SFC AND MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM WATERS...WILL REVERT BACK TO
NORTH OF THE AREA WATERS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WILL MAINLY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND DIRECTION CHANGES AS A RESULT...WITH OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 3 FT...AND MAINLY COMPRISED OF WIND DRIVEN
WAVES AT 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS. AN UNDERLYING 1-2 FOOT PSEUDO
GROUND SWELL AT 7+ SECOND PERIODS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...PIEDMONT THROUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN NORMAL ON THURSDAY KEEPING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS VERY
LIGHT...CAPPED AT JUST 10 KTS WITH SOME INHERENT VARIABILITY
POSSIBLE IN DIRECTION. NO REAL SWELL TO SPEAK OF SO SEAS SIMILARLY
BENIGN AT JUST 2 FT OR LESS. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A FEW
KNOTS OF WIND MAY BE ADDED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR A POSSIBLE
APPEARANCE OF 3 FT SEAS OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO LAZILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ZONES ON SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY SLACK THROUGH FROPA
SO AS WIND DIRECTION TURNS FROM OFFSHORE TO ONSHORE SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT THE 2 FT MARK OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY WILL ADD 5 KT OF WIND FOR A HIGHER CATEGORY
FORECAST. 3 FT SEAS SHOULD THUS RETURN TO MOST ZONES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.