Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250500
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
100 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures will continue as high pressure spreads across a
good portion of the Atlantic. Low pressure will develop east of
the Bahamas late in the week. It is too soon to tell where this
feature will end up bringing wet weather...but it may be locally.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...High pressure offshore will ridge across
the waters overnight. This should keep skies clear along with
light to calm winds. Ideal radiational cooling will occur.
Dewpoints are expected to recover slightly and this will put a
floor on overnight lows. Expect lows in the lower to mid 60s with
the coolest inland spots dropping to the upper 50s. A few mid 50s
are possible in the most rural inland locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Mid to upper ridge will build up the
southeast coast with increasing heights and plenty of warm May
sunshine to create temps up above normal. Expect temps to reach
well into the 80s to around 90 in spots. Plenty of dry air and
subsidence will keep showers/tstms out of the forecast for the
most part, but will not rule out a few aftn cu. Models continue to
show a minor shortwave reaching into the Carolinas on Thurs. This
may support a few thunderstorms...mainly west of the area.
Included a slight chc around I-95 corridor. The center of high
will basically remain off the coast shifting east through the week
and therefore expect a southerly return flow around the high
helping to bring slightly higher dewpoint air into the region.
this will help to moderate overnight lows a bit, keeping temps in
the 60s. Resumption of SW return flow will limit overnight cooling
with low and middle 60s at daybreaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Model agreement regarding the area of
disturbed weather just east of the Bahamas is getting hard to
ignore. The agreement is related to the fact that they all develop
low pressure out of this mass of convection that is likely at
least partly warm core. Where the agreement trails off is with
respect to the path and timing of said low. This will have large
local forecast ramifications as models like the GFS that decidedly
bring it into the SC coast would imply a fairly wet weekend maybe
lasting into early next week as the system meanders. Other
solutions that keep the meandering motion offshore through the
period could keep us in the subsiding and drier area west of the
low/trough. Should we remain outside of the effects of the system
then with a building upper ridge off the coast we may not have
very strong forcing for precipitation. But since even since the
latest 12Z ECMWF brings associated moisture ashore by Saturday
will keep the forecast as-is showing a rise in POPs Saturday as
well as tempered afternoon highs. When and where this features
comes ashore may be in for a long wet period as it will be quite
slow to move stuck under the aforementioned ridge aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...Winds light SW to calm this morning. Under clear
skies there is a slight potential for patchy fog development
reducing vsbys to MVFR towards sunrise...mainly quite shallow
or simply a ground fog.

Light sw-w winds will begin around sunrise and will become SSW by
afternoon. No precipitation is expected as the airmass is quite
dry.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR cigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 AM Wednesday...High pressure offshore will ridge across
the waters overnight. Southwest winds up to 10 to 15 kt late this
eve will diminish to near 10 kt or less overnight. Seas of 2 to 3
ft will be mainly 2 ft overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tuesday...Southerly return flow will continue around
high pressure center to the east of the local waters. gradient
remains weak with winds generally less than 15 kt but expect a
spike in winds and a bit of chop each afternoon as sea breeze
kicks in producing some gustier winds for a few hours. Seas will
remain below 3 ft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Some vexing uncertainty regarding a
possible area of low pressure that is forecast to develop from the
area of current disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Winds will
stay onshore through the long term. The possible effects, if any
from the low will be possibly to veer them and/or increase wind
and seas. Have not changed the current forecast which shows a
little of all (veering, increased wind speeds, building seas).

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/8



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