Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 311919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS
WEEKEND...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COAST SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. ELEMENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME DECENT
COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOOD
COVERAGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE HRRR. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR
THIS. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THINGS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT WITH WHAT
APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WORKING ON THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BASICALLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BY MY COUNT THIS IS THE FOURTH FRONT TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS JULY.
WHILE PROBABLY NOT A RECORD IT CERTAINLY SEEMS UNUSUAL. THE FRONT
WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...DRIVEN INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE AND PUSHED BACK TOWARD
THE COAST BY THE LATE NIGHT LANDBREEZE. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY WILL
POKE DOWN INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES...PUNCHING A HOLE THE 500
MB RIDGE.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
GIVE RISE TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN 40-50 MILES OF THE COAST...VERY
NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND POTENTIAL SEABREEZE
ZONE. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO PUSH STORMS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE BEACHES. FARTHER INLAND FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR DRIER
AIR MIXED DOWN INTO THE DEEP DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE CAPPING AND VERY LITTLE (IF ANY) CONVECTION. HIGHS MID
90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S COAST.

FOR SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA...
HOWEVER THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS...EVEN ALONG THE COAST WHERE 850-700
MB LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 50 PERCENT. HIGHS
AGAIN MID 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90 AT THE COAST.

IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS BETTER
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE-WISE THAN THE NAM AND HAS FEWER
SPURIOUS CONVECTIVE BLOWUPS...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE 500 MB FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHINESS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY THOUGH MODELS LOOK A BIT QUICKER IN SHUNTING THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. HAVE PRESERVED THE INLAND/COASTAL GRADIENT
BUT TWEAKED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO LOOKS
TO LIFT OUT A BIT FASTER ON TUESDAY SO RAINFALL MAY BE EVEN HARDER
TO COME BY AND JUST ISOLATED POPS AREA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH ANY ENERGY IMPINGING UPON US FROM THE WEST TO
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE CAROLINAS WILL THEN END UP
IN A REGIME OF INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES THAT
TEND TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE
THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE HINDERED BY THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. DEEPER MOISTURE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY BE RELEGATED FOR JUST AFTER THE LONG TERM. THE
MIDWEEK DAYS WHEREIN A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT SHOULD FEATURE SOME
HEAT BUT SEEMINGLY NOT THE VERY HOT READINGS FOUND IN THE MEX MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A COLD FRONT MARKED BY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS E OF A KLBT/KFLO LINE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK TROUGH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
MOVING OFFSHORE. TERMINALS ARE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING 17-19Z INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT AND
SEA BREEZE WILL INTERACT. NW WINDS ALOFT WILL STEER CONVECTION TOWARDS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDERS OCCUR THERE COULD BE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST TO NEAR KFLO/KLBT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
STABILIZATION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING TO NO WORSE THAN MVFR
LEVELS. OVERNIGHT IF CLOUDS SCATTER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
SOILS IFR CIGS/VSBYS COULD DEVELOP.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY..

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE NOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST AND THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OF
SOUTHWEST TO REDEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK INLAND. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL WAVE BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND...PUSHED
INLAND BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND PULLED BACK DOWN TO THE
BEACHES BY THE LATE-NIGHT LANDBREEZE. IF IT WASN`T FOR THIS FRONT
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WOULD PROVIDE A STEADY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SEABREEZE/FRONT MOVES INLAND. WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
TURN OFFSHORE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO LOCAL WIND WAVES THERE WILL BE AN 11-SECOND
SOUTHEAST SWELL DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
VARIOUS WAVE SETS WILL LEAD TO 2-4 FOOT SEAS THIS WEEKEND...LOWEST
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
OF 5-FOOTERS SHOWING UP DURING BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS
OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY UNCHANGING
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL BE DRIVING THESE WINDS. A STRENGTHENING OF THE LATTER COULD
ADD A FEW KNOTS OF WIND VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
3 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MBB


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