Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 161632
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1232 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will become anchored off the Carolina Coast today and
persist through Saturday. A weak front will wash out across the area
today while another weak front will approach from the north during
the weekend. Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.
The risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...Another warm day, but not as warm as
yesterday along the immediate coast due to the seabreeze.

City                         Forecast         Record
                             High Temp        High Temp

Wilmington (ILM)             88               94 in 1915
North Myrtle Beach (CRE)     85               90 in 1994
Florence (FLO)               92               92 in 1998

A stubborn patch of low stratus with some fog beneath is finally
eroding across interior southeastern North Carolina. This
feature developed within a very shallow layer of moisture (700
feet deep as measured by the 12z MHX sounding) with light winds
last night. Due to the shallow vertical depth it shouldn`t last
more than another 30-60 minutes before strong sunshine burns it
off. I expect no impact on high temperatures today from these
morning clouds.

A weak backdoor front stalled across southern New Hanover and
Brunswick Counties northwestward toward Whiteville and Lumberton
should dissipate later today as the seabreeze circulation
overwhelms the low-level wind pattern. Bermuda high pressure
well offshore will then take over the most of the remainder of
the week.

Changes to the forecast with this morning update were minor,
focusing on the batch of stratus across Burgaw and Elizabethtown,
seabreeze wind directions and speeds this afternoon, then
hourly temperatures late this afternoon through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure will be anchored offshore
and this will allow for increasing subsidence and a slight rise
in heights. This scenario will make it difficult for even a pop
up shower on the seabreeze as available moisture remains
shallow, with a plentiful supply of dry air in the mid levels.
Overall, looks like skies will be predominantly mostly clear
although some low stratus may be around early Thu morning per
model soundings and moisture profiles.

Highs will be near 90 or the lower 90s inland. A seabreeze circulation
each afternoon will keep the beaches coolest, lower to mid 80s. Lows
will be in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda High and mid level ridge will
continue to be the most notable surface features. There may be a
weak wave rotating around the western edge of the Bermuda High
for the weekend, but GFS appears to be having some feedback
issues with it so not ready to buy into any precip outside of
sea breeze convection until at least the start of next week.
Continues to appear as though a backdoor cold front will stall
north of the area for the weekend with the proximity of the
front to the forecast area somewhat in question. This will have
an impact on cloud cover and precip chances as there will be
some moisture pooling near the boundary. This could lead to
somewhat higher precip chances for the weekend if the front ends
up closer. Best chances for showers/storms looks to be Mon as
cold front moves into the region. Still a lot of uncertainty
late in the period so for now will only carry chance pop Mon
with slight chance for the weekend. Temps will remain above to
well above climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A
moderate seabreeze circulation is already obliterating the old
backdoor cold front that stalled across SE North Carolina last
night. Light mainly southwesterly winds over the next 24 hours
could increase to 10-15 kt near the beaches this afternoon with
the seabreeze.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR fog/stratus will be possible during
late nights, particularly Friday night when low-level winds
should be weakest.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM Tuesday...A very weak backdoor front has stalled
near Fort Fisher, NC. Light and variable winds near the front
become generally from the west south of Cape Fear with wind
speeds 10 knots or less. Inland temperatures are soaring this
morning and should generate a moderate seabreeze this afternoon
with nearshore winds turning southerly at 10-15 knots. Seas are
currently 1-2 feet and little change is expected through the
day.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure will be anchored offshore
this period. A seabreeze circulation will develop both afternoons
and persist into the early eve hours. The wind direction Wed
will be SSW to S and then more S to SSE Thu and Thu night. Wind
speeds will be up to 10 to 15 kt with gusts across the near
shore waters of around 20 kt each afternoon and eve. Seas will
be mainly 2 ft through Thu then 2 to 3 ft Thu night as
increasing fetch allows for a very slight increase in the swell
component.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Bermuda high will maintain southwest flow
across the waters through Sat. Minimal change to the gradient
through the period will keep wind speeds similar each day.
Typical cycle of increased winds in the afternoon and evening,
especially along the coast due to the sea breeze, with lighter
winds overnight and in the morning can be expected. Seas around
2 ft into Sat build to 2 to 3 ft late in the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...TRA



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