Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 260003
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
803 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SHARP COOLING WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...NO PARAMOUNT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST...TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING PRESENTLY PANNING OUT AND THE COASTAL FRONT
HAS MARCHED WELL INLAND...CURRENTLY FROM AKQ TO RDU TO CAE. DEEP
S- SE FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH AN UPTICK
IN INSTABILITY AFTER 6Z...THUS WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER LATE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS...AN INVERTED TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE AKA COASTAL FRONT...HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN EASTERLY ACROSS THE ILM CWA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE COASTAL TROF PUSHES ONSHORE AND INLAND
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-SSE...
ALLOWING THE MARINE AIRMASS TO PUSH INLAND. AS FOR TONIGHTS
MINS...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE KEEP MIN TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF
60 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE ILM CWA.

AS FOR POPS...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE FOR -RW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONSHORE AND INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL TROF/FRONT. AS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT OR PRE-DAWN THU HOURS...SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOW LEVELS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAS WARRANTED AN
INCREASE IN POPS TO MODEST CHANCE AT BEST. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDER MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MORE FAVORABLE THEN THE
INLAND COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGHS NEAR 80...THUNDER...AND THE
(SLIGHT) POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ALL WITHIN A 48 HOUR PERIOD.
GOOD STUFF! A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE RAIN-FREE BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AS THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION WHILE A FEW
VERY WEAK VORTS PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT. TEMPS WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80
DESPITE ABOUT 50 PERCENT CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CAPE FEAR AREA WHERE COOL SSTS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPR 70S IN THE STRONG SW FLOW. FOR SIMILAR
REASONS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BRUNSWICK CTY AND MUCH OF THE GRAND
STRAND WILL BE EVEN MORE TEMPERED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW START TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA. THIS FRONT
BARRELS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TUMBLING INTO THE LOWER 50S IF NOT COLDER BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY 00Z AT WHICH TIME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ENDS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LAGGING VORT
HOWEVER SOME NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IF NOT
DOWNRIGHT LIKELY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN FORCE THIS
MAY LEAD TO A COLUMN THAT IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES BY
THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C ALONG THE
COAST AND -4C INLAND. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH
LOWS NOT FALLING TO FREEZING NOT TO MENTION THE WARM GROUND FROM THE
WARMTH LEADING UP TO FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. ARCTIC HIGH
WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. AT THIS POINT A FREEZE SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN
WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. THE KEY WILL BE
LOCATION OF THE HIGH SAT NIGHT. IF THE HIGH ENDS UP DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN PLACES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE HIGH WILL END
UP DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20 TO LOWER 30S. DEEP DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSURE
THE REGION REMAINS DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD FREE FOR THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST LATE SUN AS NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING DYNAMICS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA AND AT THIS POINT
THINKS ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT TEMP REBOUND EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT BY MIDWEEK TEMPS WILL BE
BACK NEAR CLIMO AS HIGH MODIFIES AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY FOG AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TAF SITES COULD SEE BRIEF
-DZ/-SHRA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10
KTS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
DAYBREAK...ANY LOWERED CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ALONG THE
COAST WITH VCSH/-SHRA...AND VFR INLAND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR
20 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
VCSH AND TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SHRA...BECOMING VFR LATER SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION AND A
DECENT FETCH TO WORK WITH...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 3 TO
4 FT RANGE THIS EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 5 FT LATE INTO
DAYBREAK THU. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AROUND 6 SECONDS.

AS FOR OVERNIGHT PCPN...SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE IS NOTED ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH DECENT UVVS OCCURRING LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDER DUE TO FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... MODERATELY STRONG PREFRONTAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BUT COOL SSTS WILL INHIBIT VERTICAL
MIXING ADEQUATELY SUCH THAT WIND NOR SEAS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY. THEN AN ABRUPT VEER EARLY
FRIDAY WITH FROPA ITSELF. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH BUT THE PERIOD WILL CERTAINLY SHORTEN AS WAVE FACES STEEPEN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN 15 TO 20 KT
OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHWEST COMPONENT WILL KEEP HIGHEST SEAS BEYOND 20
NM AND IT APPEARS HEADLINES WILL NOT BE NEEDED DURING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. GRADIENT RELAXES LATE SUN AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS SUN
NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING MON...PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MON
NIGHT...WEAKENING THE GRADIENT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT MAY BUILD SEAS ACROSS OUTER EDGES OF 20 NM OVER 6 FT LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...DCH/8
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL


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