Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KILM 201447
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1047 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SHIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THURSDAY TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WILL CREATE A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND ITS
ALIGNMENT IS SUCH THAT LONG SE FETCH IS FOCUSING DIRECTLY INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUALLY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
COLUMN TODAY...WITH PWATS RISING TOWARDS 2 INCHES THIS AFTN. AT THE
SAME TIME...A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE
COAST...WILL SORT OF MERGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY WHILE
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALOFT...BROAD EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE MS VLY AND TRIES TO
CLOSE OFF. WHILE THIS WILL BRING SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE
COAST...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
ALOFT...WHICH WILL FURTHER SERVE AS CONVECTIVE FUEL BENEATH ANY WEAK
IMPULSES THAT TRAVERSE OVERHEAD TODAY.

ALREADY THE KLTX DOPPLER IS SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. THE FIRST...ALONG THE CAPE FEAR
COAST...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND REMNANT BOUNDARY
BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND. THE SECOND IS BENEATH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
WELL INLAND...AND BENEATH WHERE BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ALOFT. WITH MOST ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE COLUMN...AND THE FORCING MECHANISMS ALREADY DESCRIBED...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY...AND WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY
IN THE WEST...HIGH CHANCE EAST. STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN A BIT THIS AFTN...AND THUS ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS OR STORM TRAINING DEVELOPS.
CAPE VALUES OF NEAR 2000 J/KG ARE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE PARCELS INTO
THE CHARGE-SEPARATION ZONE OF -10C TO -30C TO CAUSE LIGHTNING...BUT
LONG-SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER
SUGGEST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX
TYPE...AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD TRW-.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS THANKS TO THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SW OF THE AREA AND LIFT NORTH INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHC POP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S THANKS TO HIGH DEW POINTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED FROM FALLING TOO FAR DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
WAA...FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF FORECAST AREA
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS NOW
SHOWING THIS TROUGH CUTTING OFF WITH LOW RETROGRADING WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TUES INTO MID WEEK. OVERALL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE WETTER
OF THE TWO DAYS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND DEVELOPING LOW
OVER GA/SC. GFS SHOWS BULLSEYE OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES OF PCP WATER OVER
NORTHEAST SC MON AFTN. BY TUES IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA BUT THIS MAY PULL
MOISTURE FROM LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH TO OUR EAST BACK TOWARD THE
COAST WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PCP AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.
MAY GET A BREAK WITH BRIEF RIDGING LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD BEING TOO QUIET. MAY END UP BEING
A LOT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP BUT DO EXPECT PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW...ESPECIALLY MON AFTN. GREATER CHC OF PCP ON MONDAY
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE TUES SHOULD
STILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND SHOULD BE LESS PCP AROUND TO HELP TEMPS RISE
CLOSER TO 90 MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...RETURN TO A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN AS
BERMUDA RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ON WED. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE IN
THE WAY OF LOCALIZED CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK AS DECENT CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS INTO FRI PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS. EXPECT INCREASING S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
BETTER SHEER AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS LATE
THURS INTO FRI AS FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT LATE FRI BUT FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR
BY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SFC HIGH SHIFTS RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES LEADING TO A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. WARMEST TEMPS WILL COME THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT AND A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS OVER THE AREA WITH READINGS
IN THE 90S WED AND THURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE THURS AND FRI WILL
MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS.
SHOULD SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FRI AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME MVFR CEILINGS FLOATING AROUND THIS MORNING. THERE
IS NOT ANY ONE IMPETUS THAT WOULD DEVELOP SHOWERS TODAY...JUST
DECENT MOISTURE AT VARYING LEVELS AND MODERATE CAPE BY MIDDAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.9"...BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NORTHEAST WIND FROM
THE WEAK WEDGE IS NOW GONE...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...10 KTS OR LESS...WITH A SE DIRECTION
PREDOMINANT AROUND A DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS...ANY WIND WAVE ENERGY WILL BE SMALL TO NONE (AND THIS
IS ECHOED CLEARLY ON WAVE SPECTRAL PLOTS THIS MORNING)...BUT A SE
SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH WILL BE
2-3 FT TODAY. AN 8-9 SEC SWELL WILL FORM THE SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM...AND WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROUP EXCEPT IN THE
VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE WILL OCCUR.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SHORE WINDS AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REACHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH WHILE A LINGERING
FRONT/TROUGH REMAINS OFF SHORE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
WESTWARD AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE UP TO 15 KTS OR SO
BY WED EVENING IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP
FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WED TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THU AND CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT AS SEAS
POSSIBLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THU NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...WEISS
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL












USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.