Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 172227
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
528 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our south will move offshore tonight and Saturday.
An upper level disturbance may bring some light showers Saturday
night. Warmer temperatures during the weekend should last through
next week. Dry weather during the early and middle portions of
next week may turn wetter late in the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...High pressure centered across FL will move
further east through the night. This will bring a warmer SW flow to
the eastern Carolinas tonight. A southern stream system moving
across the Southern Plains will reach the Lower Mississippi River
Valley by morning. High level moisture streaming northward in the
form of cirrus should reach at least portions of the area near
daybreak, most prevalent across South Carolina. It will remain dry
through the period and elevated winds above the boundary layer along
with low-level dry air will preclude any significant fog
development. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...An area of low pressure, surface and aloft,
will be positioned across the Ark-La-Tex at the start of the period
with a shortwave ridge traversing the Carolinas. The southern stream
system to our W will move toward the NE as the ridge lifts out Sat,
but in a weakening state. We will see clouds increase ahead of this
feature. A short-lived, but deepening and strengthening SW flow will
struggle to transport moisture northward. However, by later Sat
afternoon and Sat night, the depth of moisture does adequately
increase and can`t rule out isolated showers, but rainfall amounts
will be on the order of only a few hundreths where rain does fall.
The upper trough and weak surface reflection will move off the coast
Sunday morning, ending the risk for any light precipitation,
shifting light SW winds to NW and bringing a clearing trend. Weak
high pressure will follow on Sun.

Highs will be in the lower 70s both days, except along the immediate
coast where mid and upper 60s will be most common. There could be
some mid 70s across the extreme southern portions of the Forecast
Area away from the cooling influences of the Ocean. Lows will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s Sat night and perhaps a degree or two
lower Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...A closed mid level cyclone will move slowly
across the southern tier of the U.S. basically through most of
the extended period. There are indications this system will move
a bit to the north and maybe just off the North Carolina coast
by next Friday in a much weakened state. At the surface high
pressure will be in place centered over the northeast for most
of the period. Normally this is cool scenario for the area but
with ridging aloft extending to the southeast not necessarily so
this time around. Highs will be mostly in the 70s and overnight
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We continue to advertise
low chance pops late in the period as the mid level system
spawns a coastal trough which may lead to some unsettled
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...VFR expected through the forecast period. Light
southwest flow overnight with possible ground fog around sunrise.
Southwest flow will increase through the day on Saturday. A weak and
diffuse upper low  will approach the region by Saturday evening,
with some isolated/scattered convection possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in isolated
showers Sat night thru early Sun due to the passage of a weak
low pressure system and cold front. Otherwise expect VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...High pressure across FL will move E through
tonight. SW winds will persist across the waters. The pressure
gradient will tighten between the offshore high and a lee trough and
this will increase wind speeds to 10 to 15 kt this eve and
overnight. Seas will build from 1 to 2 ft this afternoon to 2 to 3
ft later tonight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...SW winds will continue on Sat and Sat eve
ahead of a weakening southern stream system. Then in the wake of
this system, the wind direction will shift to the NW overnight Sat
with NW winds persisting during Sun before veering to N Sun night as
weak high pressure moves further E. Strongest winds this period will
be up to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be up to 2 to 3 ft tonight,
otherwise 2 ft or less.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...Expect mostly northeast winds through the
period as high pressure, anchored well off to the northeast is
the main driver of the winds. Speeds will be very modest
hovering around ten knots or so. By Wednesday the system becomes
very diffuse and winds gain a southeast component mainly driven
by the sea breeze. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet early
dropping to 1-3 feet as time progresses.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43 MARINE...



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