Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 130530
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTROL AREA WEATHER INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...ANOTHER WONDERFUL DAY IN STORE FOR THE CWA
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE BUT THE NAM/MET NUMBERS HAVE A
SLIGHT EDGE...WARMER AND WENT WITH THESE NUMBERS. FOG FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF
FAIR WEATHER BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
MAXIMUMS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON IN CONFLUENT S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT UPPER SUPPORT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  POPS
WILL MAX OUT MONDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE WITH MINS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS
STORMY AND WET AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATE DAY TUE AND TUE EVE.
THIS SHOULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF TIME THAT WE ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOP AN INCH AND A HALF. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ALOFT COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGH
POPS AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS DURING TUE/TUE
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY REACH ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ROBUST
AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...AROUND 50
KT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN WET MICROBURSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WITH TIME...THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING WED AND
PERHAPS EVEN STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON THU. GIVEN FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WSW TO SW ATOP A COOL AND SHALLOW NE FLOW...WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME PROSPECTS LOOK SMALL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE
PLENTIFUL FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEEKEND AND NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO E AND POSSIBLY SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COASTAL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RISK FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES.

A COOL AND RATHER CLOUDY WORK WEEK AHEAD...IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS ON WED AND THU MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH
A STINGING NE WIND BLOWING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUE AND THEN
AGAIN NEXT SAT. ALTHOUGH A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...WE ARE
EXPECTING WELL BELOW NORMAL MINIMUMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MVFR/IFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. POTENTIALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD SPARK
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...POSSIBLY IN PLACE OF FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED ON EXACT TIMING AND AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS. EXPECT
VFR TO RETURN JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS/AFTERNOON
CU POSSIBLE...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AOB 10 KTS...INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.



&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...JUST LIKE THE PUBLIC PART OF THE
FORECAST...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE TRANQUIL AS WELL. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE PROVIDING SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 KNOTS...PROBABLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE.
THE FETCH HAS BEEN IN PLACE A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW BUT THE WAVE
SPECTRUM IS STILL PRIMARILY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. EXPECT MUCH
OF THE SAME TODAY AS WE SAW SATURDAY...2-3 FEET.


SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS TO 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF THE
COAST AS COLD FRONT NEARS THE CAROLINAS BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING S TO SE RETURN FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 KT INTO MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
DUE TO PERSISTENT S TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...PEAKING AT 4
TO 6 FT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON A STRONG COLD FRONT...SLOWING THE OFFSHORE PROGRESSION.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. THE
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE
TUE NIGHT AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED AND
THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
AND IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE MOST
PROBABLE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH GALE CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME. ONCE THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS...IT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THEREFORE... WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THU NIGHT. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE AND TUE
EVE...SHIFTING TO N OVERNIGHT TUE AND THEN A LONG DURATION OF NE
WINDS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 6 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS EVEN ON TUE...BUT WILL RAMP UP TUE NIGHT
AND WED AS DRY AND CHILLY NE SURGE ENVELOPS THE WATERS...REACHING
UP TO 6 TO 9 FT AND 10 FT NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL THU NIGHT
OR FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAN
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...SGL






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