Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 261711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...STILL CRYSTAL CAROLINA BLUE SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND A NONDESCRIPT COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT NOTED.

WITH THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE HRRR 12 UTC IS SHOWING A
SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING BUT REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE COAST MAINLY
FROM CAROLINA BEACH SOUTHWARD.

OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...NO CLOUD
COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS THE REGION WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. MINIMUM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...GORGEOUS WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH CONDITIONS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR LATE SUMMER THAN
MID-FALL ANTICIPATED. SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
TO A POSITION EAST OF BERMUDA ON TUESDAY...CREATING A SUMMER-LIKE
BERMUDA RIDGE TYPE SETUP. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS DRIVEN BY A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES LOCALLY. THE
RAISED HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH WARM RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPS TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD 80 DEGREE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
WARMER MAX TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
APPROACHED (86 AT FLORENCE). TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THANKS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG SEA BREEZE AS
LAND/OCEAN TEMP DIFFERENCES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. MINS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WARM BOTH NIGHTS...LOW/MID 50S MONDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL AT WORST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...ENJOY THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE THE
SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT HALT THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TWO
DISTINCT SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH...THE FIRST ON THURSDAY...THE SECOND LATE FRIDAY. THE FIRST
ONE THURSDAY...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE A BIT FASTER THANKS TO A LESS AMPLIFIED /FASTER/
MID-LEVEL FLOW. FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OVERALL QPF STILL APPEARS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED THANKS TO...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...ONLY A "THIN RIBBON" OF MOISTURE AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING.
STILL...CHC POP FOR THURSDAY WILL REMAIN.

THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
INTO WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FRIDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS
LOCALLY...BUT THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD...WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE RAPID DRYING BEHIND THIS SECOND IMPULSE AS IT
DRIVES THE FRONT WELL FROM THE COAST...AND HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL.

THEREAFTER A BIG COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
DEVELOP ALOFT DRIVING INTENSE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE EAST. THE
FACT THAT IT WILL BE SO WARM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. EXTENDED MOS IS ALREADY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...A SURE SIGNAL OF THE VERY COLD AIR ANTICIPATED. THE 25/12Z
ECMWF SURE IS INTERESTING...BUT IS DISREGARDED ATTM FOR ITS
EXTREME (AND NEW) BEHAVIOR. THUS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COLD
AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR/CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE/DRYER AIR BUILDS INTO THE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE W-NW AROUND 10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. COULD BE
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR OVERALL WIND SPEEDS TO
DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
LGT/VRBL BY THIS EVENING...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF COASTAL MVFR/INLAND IFR
CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUES/WED/THURS MORNINGS...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BECOMES STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY THE BUOYS ARE SHOWING WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND THE ONLY IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO
VEER THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OUT TO 0.5 TO 2.0 FEET OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEARLY OVERHEAD DURING
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN MOVING WELL
EAST OF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS CREATES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS...VEERING FROM NE TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY...WINDS WILL RISE
TO 10 KTS ACROSS ALL THE WATERS...WITH A SW DIRECTION PREDOMINANT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOW...1-2 FT
MONDAY...BECOMING 2-3 FT ONLY VERY LATE TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THURSDAY
CREATES TWO DISTINCT REGIMES IN THE EXTENDED. IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS...CREATING 2-3 FT
SEAS. FRONT WILL CROSS FROM NW TO SE EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN SPEED AND A QUICK SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE
NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FT ON
THURSDAY...A CONFUSED SPECTRUM JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS ENVELOP THE WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR






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