Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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372
FXUS62 KILM 291924
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEAKLY FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
PERIODS OF RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...TODAY`S SEABREEZE HAS HOPELESSLY COMPLICATED
FINDING THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT. HOWEVER AN ARC OF LOW CLOUDS
VISIBLE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EAST OF MURRELLS INLET AND
GEORGETOWN COULD BE A PORTION OF THE OLD BOUNDARY. A VERY WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD HELP ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS TO GO CALM TONIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING
IN PLACE FROM THE SEABREEZE AND LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING`S LOW
STRATUS...LOOK FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL EAST OF I-95.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...TODAY`S 12Z NAM REMAINS MUCH MORE HUMID IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND EXPLICITLY DEVELOPS WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE EQUALLY LIKELY...SO BOTH WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 2 AM. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING WELL EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA COAST WILL PUSH ANOTHER NORTHEASTERLY SURGE DOWN OUR
COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AS FAR
SOUTH AS MYRTLE BEACH TO 10-15 MPH AND WILL HELP HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
TODAY. THERE ARE GREAT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY
AFTER EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM MAINTAINS MUCH MORE
CLOUDINESS AND THEREFORE HAS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ANY
OTHER MODEL. I AM FAVORING THE WARMER/DRIER GFS WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE`LL SEE STRATUS ERODE SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING GIVEN A SIMILAR SHALLOW DEPTH TO THE
CLOUD DECK. STILL TEMPERED BY THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 80S
FARTHER INLAND...WARMEST NEAR FLORENCE AND KINGSTREE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. OUR LOW-LEVELS WILL ALSO MOISTEN UP
APPRECIABLY LEADING TO INLAND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OF 500 J/KG
SATURDAY AND AS HIGH AS 1250 J/KG SUNDAY. I HAVE NOT RAISED FORECAST
POPS ANY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IN FACT HAVE TRIMMED
THEM BACK FROM THE COAST WHERE COOLER MARITIME AIR SHOULD REDUCE
EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO FARTHER INLAND. A 20 POP IS
FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 30-40
PERCENT SUNDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WHERE MUCH BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD EXIST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE MON
INTO WED...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES IS
EXPECTED...WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ELEVATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES AS THEY PASS...THOUGH TIMING THESE AT EXTENDED TIME
RANGES IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES THAT
WOULD ENHANCE OR SUPPRESS CONVECTION UNTIL TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED.

TUE INTO WED A 5H TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MOVE
EAST...INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF LONGWAVE 5H TROUGH HELPS PUSH
THE STALLED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OFF THE COAST....DRYING THE REGION OUT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE FATE OF THE 5H TROUGH/LOW THU FRI WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...MOVING THE FEATURE OFF THE COAST LATE THU. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE 5H TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH SOLUTIONS DO OFFER A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER...THOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION COULD YIELD AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON
FRI. TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO MON THROUGH WED DIP BELOW CLIMO THU AND
FRI...POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW CLIMO IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS
VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED IFR CIGS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HAZE/FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT KFLO WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE
LIGHTEST. KILM MAY HAVE THE BEST OVERALL VISIBILITIES DUE TO
STRONGER MIXING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS FRONT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN INLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AN ARC OF LOW CLOUDS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF MURRELLS INLET AND GEORGETOWN
COULD BE A REMAINING PORTION OF THE FRONT. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH.

LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AROUND 70 DEGREES LONGITUDE
WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL-LIKE SURGE SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SURGE COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE FEAR BY
DAYBREAK...WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TOWARD 15 KNOTS HERE.
SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET (HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR) SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TO AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A RENEWED SURGE OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SURGE
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK NORTH OF CAPE FEAR...SHOWING UP
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FEET
ACROSS OPEN WATERS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING
WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. AS THIS LOW SCOOTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIRECTIONS
WILL VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENTION WILL THEN
SHIFT TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD TURN OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY WITH
SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL INLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...PERHAPS JUMPING DOWN TO THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW MON WILL WEAKEN MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS EARLY TUE...THOUGH
HOW FAR SOUTH REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT THE FRONT
WILL BE BACK IN THE AREA...LINGERING OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MON WILL BE THE ONLY DAY
WITH WELL DEFINED FLOW...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT. WINDS TUE AND
WED WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT TUE WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT WED. LIGHT WINDS AND CHANGEABLE DIRECTION WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE AND WED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...REK



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