Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 191122
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
722 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A SHOT OF AUTUMN TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH A GOOD WARM UP INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...FULL SUN AT HORIZON-RISE EXPECTED AND
UNOBSTRUCTED WITH NO CLOUDS OR FOG/MIST OF NOTE. A BRISK NORTH
WIND WILL GREET THE DAY...AND INITIALLY WIND CHILLS WILL DIP IN
THE 40S AT SUNRISE IN MANY SPOTS. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY
WISPY ENCROACHMENT OF CIRRUS CAUGHT IN QUICK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GULF STATES AS THE UPPER PATTERN SNAPS BACK INTO PLACE IN WAKE OF
THE SHARP IMPULSE PASSAGE. DISSIPATION MAY EAT PART OF THE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROCESS...SUNNY IS LOOKING
GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE DAYBREAK UPDATE
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A DRY COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT OFF THE COAST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
USHERING A CHANGE OF AIR EARLY THIS MORNING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY HAS
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND SUNRISE UNDER FULL EARLY SUNSHINE.

AS LOW-LVL WARMING BEGINS TO UNFOLD UNDER COPIOUS SUN...PERKY AND
ENERGETIC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY PUNCH TO THE
SURFACE... PRODUCING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH IN THE MID AND
LATE MORNING BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON TO NNW-NW 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SE NC
AND NE SC...A LITTLE MILDER SC INTERIOR AND A SMIDGEN COOLER OVER
OUR NC INTERIOR ZONES AND 70-72 BEACHES.

PICTURES FROM SPACE SHOW WE LIKELY WILL SEE SHEETS OF THIN CIRRUS
PASSING OVERHEAD IN A SWIFT WEST TO EAST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WARMING CLIMB.

A NIPPY ONE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FULL-BORE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO PROCEED. AS A RESULT A CRISP ONE MONDAY MORNING...WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR COLD POCKETS OF SE NC...AND LOW TO MID
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DAYBREAK MONDAY...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING WILL ALLOW A QUICK WARM-UP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
FROM 70-75 ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE WARMER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST.
DEEP TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND TIMING LAGS
JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MONDAYS VALUES BUT 80 DEGREES WILL BE A
STRETCH AND IS NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING.
NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BEYOND THIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND A FLATTER
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGES OF THE ROCKIES TO OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. POPS REMAIN A NO SHOW IN THE FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A METHODICAL RISE FROM FROM 60S AND 40S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO 70S AND 50S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE NOW WELL
OFFSHORE...AND OTHER THAN AN OCCASIONAL WISP OF CIRRUS...SKC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTS OF 15+ KT DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 18Z AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VRBL WINDS
BY 00Z MON. DESPITE THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...
FOG IS NOT A CONCERN GIVEN FCST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM SUNDAY...ADVISORY FLAGS FLAPPING IN A BRISK N WIND
THIS MORNING ON THE WATERS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY
BEFORE WINDS EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. N 20-25 KT THROUGH NOON AND
HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR 4-6 FEET. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TODAY AS WINDS TAIL OFF TO 10-15
KT. LINGERING GONZALO SWELL WILL INTERACT WITH BUMPY N WIND-SEAS
TO PRODUCE A PITCHY SEA STATE THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY THEN QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY BUT
REMAIN WEAK. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS WITH THE STRONGER VORT TO MOVE ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE AND BY AROUND
0600 UTC WEDNESDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15
KNOTS. SEAS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 FEET FAVORING THE
HIGHER VALUES LATE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS. BEYOND THIS 10-15 KNOTS WILL SUFFICE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY DROPPING
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR









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