Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281118 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 618 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...MOVING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 615 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: DEEP...DRY WEST TO NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVERHEAD. A STRONG ONGOING COLD ADVECTING SURGE EARLY TODAY MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...PEAKING ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLUMN MEANS MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE POOLED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON CU. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL SEE THE HIGH MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR GOOD RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE CENTER WILL PUSH WELL TO THE EAST...A RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING WARM SW FLOW THROUGH THE WKND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA...TO CREATE A BEAUTIFUL LATE-FALL WKND. ALTHOUGH A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING IMPULSE TO THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDLESS AND DRY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LONG-DURATION RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS WELL. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 50S...BUT THESE WILL CLIMB A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH MID/UPR 60S BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. MINS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT 2-3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40...COOLEST WEST...TO THE MID/UPR 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH CONTINUED SW RETURN FLOW AROUND A DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND TEMPS MONDAY SHOULD REACH 70 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASE BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL PRECIPITATE WATER VALUES REMAINS PRETTY LOW...REACHING ONLY ABOUT 0.75 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED BENEATH 500MB. STILL...THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WHICH TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE SITUATIONS. THESE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY. THE ECZEMA KEEPS THE WEDGE IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ERODING IT WITH WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS...WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT OUT ON WEDNESDAY. KNOWING THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO BREAK DOWN A WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...WILL SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF IMPROVEMENT...KEEPING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW CLOUDINESS...BEFORE A WARMUP REDEVELOPS ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AROUND 5K BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO KEEP ANY CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL SCT. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 15-18 KT OR SO THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. WINDS GO CALM EARLY THIS EVENING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM AS SEAS ARE BACK IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WITH NW WINDS ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 KTS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: A STRONG COLD SURGE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM AS A RESULT...WHEN THE FUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE LIMITING FETCH SUCH THAT SEAS DO NOT EXCEED 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT OR LESS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD SATURDAY...AND THEN WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WINDS THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS...CREATING A DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 FT OR LESS MOST OF SATURDAY...BUT AN INCREASE TO 2-3 FT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SW WINDS RISE...AND AND A 10-11 SEC SE SWELL DEVELOPS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH A WEAK GROUND SWELL AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-3 FT. DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THOUGH...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PRODUCES A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY VEER TO THE NE AND BECOME 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE GUSTY NE WINDS...BECOMING 4-6 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY...AND AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...REK/JDW

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