Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 022349 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 748 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROBESON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM GIVEN THE PRIMARY DRIVER HAS BEEN STRONG HEATING. WILL INCLUDE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO LATE EVE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF MAINLY DARLINGTON COUNTY EARLY. OTHERWISE...NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IT WAS A HOT DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE FLO HIT 99 DEGREES... TYING THE RECORD HIGH. HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AT SUNSET. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE THICKEST THIS EVE BUT SHOULD VERY SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER MODEST NOCTURNAL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM FULLY DECOUPLING WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LEAST INHIBITED. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FOG AND STRATUS NEAR DAYBREAK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH 80 DEGREES OR SO ON THE OCEANFRONT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING. THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL AL TO GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S RANGE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR INLAND LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY RESTRICTIONS AS A RESULT...AND THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THEM TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INLAND...POTENTIALLY CREATING MVFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT INLAND AND AROUND 5 KTS ALONG THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO AOB 15 KTS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...A MODEST NOCTURNAL JET WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUSTAINED AT NEAR 15 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SW. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 FT WITH PERHAPS SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM JUST UNDER TEN KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A 2-3 FOOT RANGE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SGL

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