Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 220530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1230 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE CAROLINAS LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...POPS INCREASED TO 100 PERCENT. WAVE OF STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA IN ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH STEADY RAIN BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED. FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 900 PM FOLLOWS... RADAR TRENDS NOW REFLECTING RECENT FORECAST EXPECTATIONS...AS EXPANDING STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWER POCKETS TRACK FROM SW TO NE OVER SC PRESENTLY. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT UPSTREAM COVERAGE OF RAIN MAY BRING DECENT MEASURES TO INLAND AND COASTAL LOCALS OF NE SC AND SE NC. ESTIMATES THROUGH 12Z/7AM MONDAY 0.10-0.25 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS APT TO GAIN MORE GIVEN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE -RA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART TO LEVEL OFF INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY AMID THE WET FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST AND DROPPING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WELL INLAND WHERE LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING AS RAIN SETS IN. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NCEP SREF 00Z MONDAY OUTPUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST AND LIFTING N OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH IT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO WEDGE STRONGLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A VERY PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE MON AND MON NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AROUND MON NIGHT. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON INTO TUE. A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO DISLODGE THE WEDGE LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD FINALLY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS TO DRIVE THE WARM FRONT N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. MODELS ARE PORTRAYING A HIGH SHEAR...LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TUE NIGHT AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH US ON WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES MAY ONLY REACH 500 J/KG...BUT 0-3 KM AGL BULK SHEAR VALUES REACH 40-45 KT TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SW WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KT AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON WED. THESE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AT LEAST STRONG LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED. WILL TREND POPS HIGHER TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT... REACHING 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RATHER COOL WITH A RATHER FLAT TEMP CURVE. HIGHS ON MON WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S WITH ANY LOWER 50S CONFINED TO THE COAST AND PERHAPS THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. TEMPS TUE WILL BE TRICKY...IF THE WEDGE HOLDS STRONGLY ALL DAY...THEN HIGHS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON. HOWEVER...ANY SUBSTANTIAL EROSION AND TEMPS WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THIS FORECAST PLAYS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FOR NOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...COOLEST ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. TUE NIGHT...LOWS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE EARLY EVE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WARM AND WET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A DEEP MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL STREAM UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET REACHING UP TO 50 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO FUNNEL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS BY WED EVE AND OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST BY WED AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S IN STRONG WAA. BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL AID IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH WED AFTN. OVERALL EXPECT BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WED AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE BUT EXPECT THE DIGGING MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFF SHORE BY THURS MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND INCREASING SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY BEFORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD UP FORM THE GULF COAST THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRI. IT WILL REMAIN ELONGATED UP ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH FRI INTO SAT AT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W-NW. THE COOLER W-NW FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND BY FRI TO W-SW AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH A DRIER FROPA FOR SAT NIGHT. THE W-SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KICK TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FRI AND SAT. MODELS SHOWING QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PCP THROUGH SAT INTO SUN AS THE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND FINALLY BRINGS FRONT THROUGH SUN EVENING. I WENT WITH A DRIER SOLUTION OVERALL BUT DID PUT SOME CLOUDS AND LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...PERIODS OF -RA/RA THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL HELP LOWER CIGS TO IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. POCKETS OF HEAVIER PRECIP COULD REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. BY 12Z EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS AT ALL AIRPORTS AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF BY MIDDAY...IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN WITH COOL AND SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED A GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE STRATUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY AS DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS. AFTER SUNSET...LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STRATUS LOWERS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NORTH AROUND 5 KT AFTER 00Z TUE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CIGS EARLY TUE MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS/MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VFR THU BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR ON FRI.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS AWAY FROM THE SC COAST. THE COASTAL FRONT IS ABOUT 40-45 MILES OFFSHORE AND SHOULD BACK UP TO WITHIN ABOUT 30 MILES OF THE NC COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE JET OF STRONGEST NE WINDS WILL SET UP JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS AT FRYING PAN HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET...IMPLYING THERE IS PROBABLY A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 6 FOOT SEAS ONGOING NEAR CAPE FEAR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 PM FOLLOWS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 9 AM NC WATERS AND 6 AM SC WATERS. ADVISORY GUSTS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND AND THIS WILL AGITATE SEAS...AND A RECOVERY TIME OF 6 FOOT PLUS SEAS OFFSHORE IS ANTICIPATED. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CRAMPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING NE ALONG THE COAST. THE PINCHED GRADIENT WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT...MOVING STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE SC WATERS. AS A RESULT SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR NC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT FOR SC WATERS SCA WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. BUOY 41013 CONTINUES REPORTING 6 TO 7 FT SEAS AND ANTICIPATED PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE SHOULD PUSH SEAS OVER 6 FT INTO THE OUTER EDGES OF THE MARINE ZONES. THIS EVENT WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WITH CONDITIONS NOWHERE NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS CLOSE TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN AMZ252. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT WELL AWAY FROM SHORE AND IN WATERS EXPOSED TO EXTENDED NORTHEAST FETCH WHILE WATERS CLOSE TO SHORE AND SHELTERED FROM NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RUN 1 TO 3 FT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LIFTING N ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD STRONGLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE. THIS WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS MON AND MON NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING TUE AND THEN TO SE LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT...UP TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE NEAR 3 FT MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME 4 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS MON MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL BUILD TUE NIGHT AND SHOULD EXCEED 6 FT OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND. AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WORKS ACROSS THE WATERS LATER TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...THE RISK FOR SEA FOG AND STRATUS WILL INCREASE. POOR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A LARGE AND POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WNA CONTINUES TO SHOW SEAS RAMPING UP ABOVE 6 FT BY WED MORNING AND REACHING UP TO 7 TO 9 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER SW TO W FLOW AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WED AND LASTING INTO THURS WITH HIGHEST SEAS GETTING PUSHED FARTHER OFF SHORE IN STRONGER W-NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED AND WILL DIMINISH AS THEY VEER AROUND TO THE NW TO N BECOMING 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THURS INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY THURS AFTN ENDING UP AROUND 2 TO 4 FT BY THURS EVE AND DOWN FURTHER TO 3 FT OR LESS BY FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COUPLED WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE PUSH OF WIND AND WAVES...WILL REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NEW HANOVER AND PENDER BEACHES FOR HIGH WATER RUN-UP TO THE DUNES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTERWARD. IN SOME AREAS WATER MAY PUSH THROUGH LOW-LYING DUNES ONTO LOCAL BEACH ROADWAYS. A MARGINAL EVENT FOR MINOR THRESHOLDS BUT WARRANTED AS PEAK ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ENHANCED BY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. PORTIONS OF CAROLINA BEACH ROAD MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW INCHES OF WATER AROUND SUNRISE. TIDES WILL LOWER BELOW FLOODING LEVELS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RJD/MJC NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MJC

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