Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281138 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE TEENS CONFIRM THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MINUS 5 TO MINUS 8 DEG C THIS MORNING. A CHILLING NORTH WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER A QUARTER INCH. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERCOME ANY SHALLOW CUMULUS THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP AROUND 5 KFT. THUS...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CLOUDS SKIRTING MAINLY THE CAPE FEAR REGION THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF NEW ENGLAND LOW PRESSURE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE ON THU. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AS WINDS QUICKLY GO CALM. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING ACROSS MID AMERICA MAY BRING SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TOWARD THU MORNING...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY THURS EVE. INITIALLY A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AT THE SFC WHILE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LEAVING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. ENERGY UPSTREAM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DRIVE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EAST ON THURS. THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND ON THURS BUT AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST FURTHER...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL COME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN W-SW FLOW. PCP WATER VALUES REACH UP CLOSER TO AN INCH BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE LOWEST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAINS DRIER AND WILL NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AND LIMITED MORE ABOVE 5K FT. THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS BUT NOT MUCH AT ALL IN TERMS OF QPF. PCP WATER VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY FRI AFTN AS WE TAP INTO COLD CANADIAN AIR IN DEEP NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FORM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON FRI AND DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FRI NIGHT IN CONTINUED CAA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING OVERHEAD BY SAT NIGHT. AFTER A COLD START SAT MORNING...TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES. THE BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF BY SAT NIGHT BUT MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING MOST PLACES SAT NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING COLD FRONT EAST AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PCP LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MON AFTN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AND COLD AIR FOR MID WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TO START WILL WARM CLOSER TO 60 BY MONDAY IN RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE S-SW. 850 TEMPS DOWN NEAR 0C ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND UP CLOSE TO 11C BY MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL COME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BECOME SATURATED SUN NIGHT WITH GREATEST CHC OF PCP AT THAT TIME. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE IN DECENT WAA KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES SUN NIGHT. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEG EARLY THIS MORNING. COMPLIMENTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO A SIMILAR RANGE TO TUE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWER TO MID 20S DOMINATING. THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING. NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF TODAY THANKS TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BRINGING LIGHT/CALM WINDS INTO THU MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE VALID TIL NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE N WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY SLACK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DRY/CHILLY SURGE...NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THE DIRECTION WILL BE N. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...3 TO 4 FT WITH SOME 5 FT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VERY SLOWLY VEERS TO NNE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SW AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURS NIGHT. RETURN FLOW LATE THU WILL INCREASE UP TO A 20 KTS OR SO THU NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL VEER AROUND SLOWLY TO THE N-NW THROUGH FRI NIGHT REMAINING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT...REACHING CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT THURS. SEAS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY IN NW-N FLOW ON BACK END BUT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW SETTLING OVERHEAD ON SAT. SEAS WILL DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS BY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID RISE IN SEAS SUNDAY EVE INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR

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