Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 131926 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 326 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY...BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 30 POP FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. SINCE UPPER SUPPORT IS ON THE WAY OUT OF THE AREA...EXPECT MESOSCALE FEATURES TO DRIVE CONVECTION TONIGHT...MEANING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MINS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEFINE THE SHORT TERM. VERY UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER EXPECTED BOTH DAYS FOR THE EARLY WORK-WEEK PERIOD...AS RETURN FLOW PUMPS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND THE MUCH-DISCUSSED APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS HUNG UP WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY EVE. THIS LEAVES HIGH THICKNESSES...850MB TEMPS OF 17-19C...AND DEW POINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S...BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES...AND WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR SO COOLER ON TUESDAY. THIS REPRESENTS A SEVERAL-DEGREE JUMP IN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LONGITUDINAL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT DURING TUESDAY...SO A JUMP IS REQUIRED. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS...CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 105 ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON TUESDAY. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM...MID/UPR 70S MONDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY. WHILE HEAT WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN EARLY WEEK...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL FEATURE ONLY ISOLATED STORMS...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BOUNDARIES...BUT LOWERING THICKNESSES AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS AND THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE ILM CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A DEEP AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE AREA THAT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED. WEDNESDAY LOOKS THE MOST UNSETTLED WITH THE ACTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL CHANCES MAY TAPER LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT BY THEN BUT SHOULD ALSO BE WEAKENED. ALSO...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND THE FLOW MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A MORE WSW AS OPPOSED TO SWRLY DIRECTION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BY AROUND MID AFTERNOON...PUSHING INLAND BY 20-21Z. BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT AND DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FIRING UP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL KEEP THE WATERS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS DRIVES A PINCHED GRADIENT...AND FORCES SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS MUCH OF THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...POSSIBLY REACHING 6 FT ON TUESDAY. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE EARLY-WEEK TIME-FRAME...AND CONDITIONS NECESSITATING AN SCA MAY BE POSSIBLE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT...FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR JULY. AS THE FRONT STALLS VERY NEAR THE COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE MAINTAINED BUT THE SLACK IN GRADIENT COULD KNOCK WIND SPEEDS DOWN BY A FEW KTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT HIGHER WEDNESDAY WHEN BUILT UP SEAS FROM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGIN THEIR SUBSIDING TREND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...RAN SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/RAN MARINE...

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