Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 161448 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1048 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A strong cold front will cross the coast today, accompanied by a few showers. Drier and much cooler air will build into the area behind the front tonight and Tuesday, as Canadian high pressure builds in. Dry weather and seasonable conditions will prevail through the week, with a warming trend developing by next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1045 AM Monday...Significant adjustments were needed for hourly and maximum temperatures, as near full sun basking the eastern zones in this warm sector, was bringing low 80s in a few spots already. Winds will become NW across the area by 18z/2PM, with the majority of the rain falling in wake of the windshift. Showers should reach coastal zones 3-4 pm. Its not clear how cohesive or organized the convection will be as it reaches the coast, since waning low-level convergence will be in place, but scattered to a likely coverage is advertised. By 5 pm is it become breezy to windy across the area as CAA sets in with a gust to 30 mph likely. As of 300 AM Monday...A strong cold front (from a temperature standpoint) currently resides in Western North Carolina. This front will make steady progress through the area today. The front has limited moisture thus the broken line of weakening showers and isolated thunder showing up on regional radar loops. We are maintaining the chance to brief likely pops for today mainly either side of 1800 UTC. There is some indication of the showers lingering into late afternoon and the day shift may need to monitor the trends. Clearing and somewhat blustery tonight with decent northwest winds (not mid winter like) ushering in lows Tuesday morning in the middle to upper 40s. Highs today will be a little tricky with the anticipated clouds and showers with possible breaks. Overall expect a wide range of mid to upper 70s east with considerably lower values northwestern zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Canadian high pressure will bring the coolest weather yet of this fall season to the Carolinas. The center of the high will remain to our north, passing through the central Appalachians Tuesday and moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Wednesday. 850 mb temps will bottom out in the +8C to +10C range on Tuesday, moderating a couple degrees on Wednesday as the mean surface-850 mb flow veers more easterly. Aside from a few cirrus, skies should remain clear through the period. It`s interesting to note that precipitable water values were at record high levels just last week at 2.3 to 2.4 inches. Models are showing PWs of only 0.25 inches Tuesday morning during the driest portion of this incoming Canadian airmass. High temperatures on Tuesday should rise only into the upper 60s. This last time highs were this cool was April 25th in Florence and North Myrtle Beach; May 13th in Lumberton; and June 8th in Wilmington. Tuesday night looks like the coolest night of the week with 42-45 degrees expected inland, and upper 40s near the coast. The last time temps fell into the 40s was May 8th in North Myrtle Beach; and May 9th in Wilmington, Lumberton, and Florence. Highs and lows should both moderate by about 5 degrees Wednesday/Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 244 PM Sunday...A broad upper trough of moderate amplitude at the beginning of the forecast period just upstream, will translate eastward through the period. This feature will exit the coast late in the week, while a short-wave upper ridge of high amplitude edges in from the west. This pattern in terms of sensible weather should bring a mainly pleasant Fall-like mid week period, transitioning to a warming trend late week and next weekend. The expansive surface high itself will budge only a bit east into next weekend, and should still have a pronounced foothold on the region. As a result, the radiational cooling potential could still allow seasonable, to slightly above normal minimums into late week. Tropospheric cross-sections through time, show arid air remains in place above 8000 feet, and thus a dry week upcoming. Return flow should re-introduce moisture into the area during next weekend, in the mild/warm sector, as long range models appear to be resolving a cold frontal passage next Monday day 8. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 12Z...Will be transitioning from a stratus/fog scenario this morning to some possible convection later today associated with a fairly decent cold front that will sweep across the region this afternoon. Look for some possible IFR fog/stratus mainly inland through 14-15Z. Convection will enter the western CWA later this morning, but may wane as it reaches the coast. Winds will become northerly and quite gusty this afternoon and evening as the cold air advection commences. Extended Outlook...MVFR stratus possible near the coast TUE morning in blustery post-frontal NE wind. Otherwise VFR in the extended. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Winds are still relatively light across the coastal waters from the southwest around ten knots. This should remain the case for the next several hours. By midday or so the flow will turn offshore as a front moves steadily across the area. The stronger surge of winds arrives late this afternoon and evening from the north, northeast. Expect speeds to quickly ramp up to 20-25 knots with higher gusts and maybe a few hours of 25-30 knots as efficient mixing should occur with cold air advection and relatively warm waters. Tepid seas currently around 2-3 feet will ramp up accordingly with the winds to 5-7 feet. The Small Craft Advisory timing still looks good. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday...Canadian high pressure centered over the central Appalachians Tuesday will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night. With the center of the high remaining well to our north, we never get in on the light winds these highs can sometimes bring. Instead, strong northeasterly winds 20-25 kt Tuesday will only diminish to 15-20 kt Tuesday night through Wednesday night as the pressure gradient remains rather tight across our area. Although nearshore seas will diminish through the period, particularly between Cape Fear and Murrells Inlet, enough wind will continue across the more open waters near Cape Fear and east of Winyah Bay to maintain 6 foot seas, and Small Craft Advisories are expected to continue through at least late Wednesday afternoon. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 244 PM Sunday...This appears to be a period of improvement across all marine locations, as gusty NE winds begin to abate, allowing wave heights to also drop. The sea recovery period will be a gradual one, as the high builds very slowly to the SE. Seas will subside to 3-4 feet by early Friday, with a light to moderate NE-E chop in the mix then. The period is dry. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-256. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254. && $$ NEAR TERM...SHK/8 SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MJC AVIATION...DL

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