Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 031743 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1243 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH WILL BRING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURN NORTH. THURSDAY WILL START OFF MILD BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE SLATED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...COOL AND DREARY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. MONDAY`S COLD FRONT IS STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD LATE TODAY. THIS LEAVES COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT AN ATYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR ACTUALLY COOLED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE CUT BACK TEMPS THROUGH TODAY...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO WHAT TODAY`S HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE FRONT STALLED SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WAA. THIS COULD MAKE HIGH TEMPS RATHER MILD VERY LATE THIS EVENING...AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AM CURRENTLY SIDING WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE AFTN WILL STAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS COLD AND FROM THE NE...WINDS ONLY 2 KFT ALOFT AND HIGHER ARE INCREASING FROM THE SW...AND THIS IS DRIVING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LOCAL BEACH CAM FROM MYRTLE BEACH IS RATHER INTERESTING...AS THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARLY MOVING SW TO NE...YET THE SURFACE OBSERVATION MAINTAINS NE WINDS. IT IS THIS SW FLOW ATOP THE COOL WEDGE WHICH WILL DRIVE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE VERY WEAK INTENSITY WILL CAUSE MOST PLACES TO STRUGGLE TO MEASURE ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE. AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT...AND THEN RACE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS CREATES A SITUATION WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHED FIRST THING AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL TECHNICALLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT BY DAWN WEDNESDAY THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 60 ALL LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A SLOW END TO SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEA FOG MAY ADVECT ONSHORE AND CAUSE SOME SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND FOR NOW HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FOG/WX GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...WINTER TAKES A BIT OF A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE FOUND OFF THE WEST COAST IN A SETUP MORE TYPICAL OF THE WARM SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM MAY BE ALONG CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE SEA FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE LURKING DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. THE MODERATELY STRONG SW FLOW MAY TRY TO ADVECT SOME OF THIS MUCH A LITTLE BIT INLAND CAPPING THE WARMTH BY BRINGING IN A BROKEN STRATUS DECK ACCORDING TO WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL THOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. IT MAY BE TIME TO TRIM FORECAST HIGHS JUST A BIT IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES. CLOUDS OR NOT THIS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST AREAS SEE LOW TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME BUT ALSO NUMBERS CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR! STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THURSDAY NOW LOOKS A BIT SLOWER ESP ON THE WRF. GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE ALOFT THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF OR A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. A LITTLE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AND ISO THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WE WILL EKE OUT ONE LAST DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ALTHOUGH WITH FROPA THEY WILL BE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LACKLUSTER MAINLY BECAUSE THE FRONT ARRIVES SO MUCH AHEAD OF ANY DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING. WINTER ROARS BACK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BUT A BRISKLY CHILLY AFTERNOON STILL EXPECTED. NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S NOWHERE TO BE FOUND AS MOST PLACES REMAIN CAPPED IN THE MID 40S AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WEDGE WILL BE WEAKENING ON SATURDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT STRENGTHEN. WHAT LITTLE WARM ADVECTION OCCURS MAY BE OFFSET BY INCREASED CLOUDINESS. IN FACT GFS MOS NOW CAPPING HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN. MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD GET PUSHED OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH FALLS APART AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. AS THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WE MAY RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOWEST CIGS AOB 2K ARE OCCURRING AT KFLO. CLOSEST IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE ABOUT 50 MILES SW OF KFLO. IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO ADVECT NORTH THIS MORNING MOST LIKELY DUE TO NE-ENE SURFACE FLOW. PATCHY -RA IS STILL OCCURRING BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING VSBYS. THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH...AND A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...LETTING UP SOME THIS EVENING. BEST CONFIDENCE...ALBEIT LOW...FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS NEAREST THE COASTAL TROUGH. BEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...-RA/IFR EARLY WED BCMG MVFR/-SHRA WED AFTN. IFR/LIFR IN SEA FOG COASTAL TERMINALS WED. -SHRA ENDING WED NIGHT. SEA FOG DISSIPATING THURS COASTAL TERMS WITH RAIN/IFR DEVELOPING NW-SE THUR. VFR FRI. MVFR/SHRA SAT. VFR SUN.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT IS STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE EASED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM. E/NE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN...BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER TO THE SW LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS...AND RISE TO AROUND 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT TODAY...BUT SOME LOWER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE S/SW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE. IN ADDITION...SEA FOG MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE STILL VERY COLD SHELF WATERS. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED SEA FOG IN THE WX GRIDS...WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL WATERS...BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AND DENSE OFF THE HORRY AND BRUNSWICK COUNTY COASTS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME LATE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS MAY MATERIALIZE. ALSO THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND PROBABLY NIGHT AS WELL THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SEA FOG AS THE DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER THE WATER WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH ON THURSDAY LEADING TO A SHARP VEER AND LIKELY A CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY INITIALIZE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FLYING IN A MODERATELY STRONG N TO NE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON IN A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT REGIME AND ALL HEADLINES LIKELY DROP BY EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IF NOT WASH OUT ENTIRELY. THE NNE FLOW WILL REMAIN HOWEVER, MAINTAINED BY SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE AREA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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