Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 020520 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 120 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ATTM ARE STAYING ABOVE THE MIN TEMP CURVE FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WILL GO AHEAD AND TWEAK TONIGHTS MINS UPWARDS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES. LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SFC TO 900MB. SFC BASED INVERSION SHOULD GET STRONGER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY INLAND ONCE THOSE DEBRIS LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT THE FOG HARD ACROSS THE ILM CWA...JUST DELAYED BY A COUPLE HOURS FROM EARLIER THINKING. THUS...WILL GO WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AN HOUR OR 2 BEFORE DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................... AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER VICINITY OF CLIO AND MINTURN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PROGRESS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS INLAND...AND COULD MEET UP WITH THIS SHOWER WITHIN 1 TO 2 HRS BEFORE THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO ACCOMMODATE. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME THICK AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REDUCE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VSBYS TO DENSE CRITERIA...ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST LOOKS AOK...WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING IF ANY APPLIED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE MOST AMPLIFIED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RISING HEIGHTS AND SUNSHINE WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER TO MID 80S. A SEABREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE BEACHES AROUND 80. LONGER NIGHTS AND A RATHER DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEP UPSTREAM TROUGH. THEREFORE...WILL SLOW THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE WESTERNMOST AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG FRONTAL LIFT DOES COMBINE WITH A MOISTENING COLUMN AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...GIVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EAST COAST SAT...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY. BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION OCCURS SAT INTO SUN WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY HELP TEMPER LOWS A BIT SUN MORNING BUT STRENGTH OF COLD AIR WILL STILL LEAD TO LOWS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SOME ON SUN BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COME INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT. COOLING WILL NOT BE MAXIMIZED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT LOWS MON MORNING WILL STILL END UP SIMILAR TO SUN MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP MON THROUGH WED...BRIEFLY BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF FRONTAL REMAINS ON TUE. FRONT IS WASHED OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...HAVING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND ITS PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO INTO MON BEFORE CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 06Z...STILL EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE FOG A BIT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS GIVEN THE LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT ALL TERMS AFTER 08-09Z...WITH TEMPO IFR AT KLBT/KFLO FROM 09-12Z. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO VSBYS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS BEFORE DAYBREAK. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR COULD DEVELOP AT KILM/KCRE BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR THE INLAND SITES. VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...BUT ANY VSBY ISSUES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS/MVFR LATE FRI/EARLY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................. AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD SFC RIDGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES HIGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR NNE-ENE WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS. EVEN 10 KT MAY BE PUSHING IT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 FT OR LESS...AND CONSIST OF A LAZY 1 FOOT ENE GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 13 SECOND PERIODS COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 6 SECOND PERIODS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE RATHER BENIGN INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE. A LAND BREEZE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DIRECTION WILL VEER TO THE SE AND S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE AND TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. SW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SW WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY SAT WILL RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DURING SAT. GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND GRADIENT RELAXES. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN BUT WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE SUN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT MON INTO MON NIGHT. WIDE RANGE OF SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...2 TO 6 FT...WILL NARROW AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AND SPEEDS DECREASE. SEAS SUN WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT DROPPING TO 2 FT OR LESS FOR MON.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR/SRP

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