Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271910 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 310 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Changeable conditions will persist for the next several days. There is a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday and again Friday and early Saturday. The weekend should be dry with an increasing chance of showers early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Monday...In the very near term the HRRR suggests that the inland showers will dissipate as heating decreases. Satellite shows a fairly impressive looking shortwave crossing Missouri. This feature will lead to an increase in moisture locally as it progresses eastward. For most of the overnight hours this will mean increasing clouds. Inland areas will see rain chances on the rise as cyclonic mid level flow and weak height falls impinge upon the area. The upper trough will be both weakening and shifting northward a bit as it translates eastward. This is where the strongest ascent will occur and the small but non-zero threat for severe weather will be located. Forecast soundings do show some dry mid level air however and so the SPC marginal risk does include some of our northern counties. Dry advection and the exiting shortwave should make for rapidly decreasing rain chances later tomorrow afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 PM Monday...Mid level ridging moving slowly across the Tennessee Valley will be the main player through the short term period. This will allow high pressure to migrate from the Great Lakes region into a cold air damming scenario by early Thursday. With a cold front moving offshore early in the period, pops will not be an issue through the period. Expect mostly sunny skies Wednesday with some low level cloudiness developing in with the wedge early Thursday. Expect another warm day Wednesday with highs possibly reaching and eclipsing 80 degrees before the cool down Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern Carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support will pass by to our N. Still expect a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the NW, but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Carolinas as it lifts NE from the Gulf Coast states into the southern Great Lakes region and brings a surge of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid 70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 18Z...VFR for the remainder of the daylight hours. Clouds will lower overnight with the approach of a healthy mid level disturbance. This has complicated the fog forecast for the overnight hours. Some guidance is suggesting some MVFR visibilities but it seems too cloudy according to forecast soundings. Showers and thunderstorm chances will also be on the rise from west to east overnight. Extended outlook...Restrictions to ceiling and visibility possible in scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Tue. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Fri/Fri night will increase the risk for reduced ceilings and visibility. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 PM Monday...Light southerly winds for the remainder of the day will last into the overnight hours. Waves a bit larger than what such meager wind would support as there is some swell energy as evident by 41013`s dominant period of 9 seconds. S winds will turn more to the SW heading into Tuesday as an upper level disturbance and surface low pass by to our north. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 PM Monday...Expect changeable winds through the period as initially a southwest flow of around 15 knots will be in place. A cold front will quickly move across the waters by 12z Wednesday with a weak west to northwest flow. This modest flow will be in place for about six hours or so before a surge from the northeast commences. This surge will last through the remainder of the period with winds from the northeast on the lower end of a 15-20 knot range. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and late in the period with 2-4 feet in between. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory may be required for all waters Fri and Fri night. Strong high pressure centered across Quebec Province Thu morning will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the Midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during Sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to SW Fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt Fri/Fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be 3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft Fri/Fri night before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...MBB

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