Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 271439 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1038 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BRINGING SOME ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...WEATHER JUST ABOUT AS QUIET AS IT GETS (SAVE FOR THE HIGH SURF/STRONG RIPS). HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HAS NORTHERLY BREEZES UP A BIT BUT AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS THE WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS ABATEMENT OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW LIKELY THE SOLE REASON THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO CLIMO OR A LITTLE HIGHER IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. 12Z AREA RAOBS TELL THE STORY ABOUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...LITTLE AND NONE, RESPECTIVELY. NOT FAR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PLUMMET TO 40C...AND EVEN MHX PW VALUE OF 1.15 INCHES LIKELY A LITTLE CONTAMINATED BY THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD AT 12Z....CLOUDS WHICH QUICKLY BEGAN TO DISINTEGRATE AT SUNUP. CHS PW VALUE OF 0.6 LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AREAL MOISTURE CONTENT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. REALLY THE ONLY INTERESTING NOTE WILL BE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN GUIDANCE AS THERE IS NO WIND SHIFT NOTED. NO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NINETY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES SOUTH AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...BASICALLY BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MORE LOCALIZED FEATURES...THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH PROVIDING THE CATALYST FOR POPS. WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A WEAKER TROUGH THE PAST DAY OR SO...WHAT WAS SHAPING UP TO BE A SOMEWHAT WET WEEKEND NOW LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO OVER TWO INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG/STRATUS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND SLIDING SOUTH. THINK SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD ERODE IT BEFORE IT GETS TO ANY TERMINALS...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN IFR CEILING/VIS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 12-13Z. CRISTOBAL WILL NOT HAVE ANY AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY. IN FACT...THE SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS FROM FORMING. WE WILL HAVE GOOD SURF AND POSSIBLE STRONG RIP CURRENTS HOWEVER. GENERALLY A NORTH WIND TODAY...GUSTY BY MID MORNING. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...SWELL ENERGY FROM CRISTOBAL IN THE PROCESS OF MAXING OUT RIGHT NOW. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR GTOWN WATERS AS A WNA/SWAN BLEND STILL KEEP 6 FOOTERS OUT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE ZONE UNTIL ABOUT 20Z. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THEN. AS CRISTOBAL ROCKETS NNE LATER TODAY THE SWELL ENERGY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FROM THE NORTH AND WAVE SHADOWING OFF OF CAPE FEAR WILL ALLOW THESE WAVE HEIGHTS TO DROP OFF. NC ZONES LIKELY SEEING ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. LATEST POPULATION OF SIMILAR MODEL BLEND YIELDED A FEW 5 FT SEAS OFF OF HORRY COUNTY BUT ONLY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS STILL A LARGE ENOUGH GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHTS TO PRECLUDE A SCEC THERE IT SEEMS...AND AMZ 254 WILL ONLY BECOME INCREASINGLY SHADOWED AS THE DAY WEARS ON ANYWAY. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AT TEN KNOTS GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I CANT SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43

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