Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290832 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 332 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. MILD AND WET WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS NC WILL MOVE SSE THROUGH SE NC THIS MORNING AND NE SC THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SLIP BENEATH MOIST AND MILD SW FLOW...LIKELY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL -DZ/-RA/FG ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW NO GUARANTEE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL OVER-RUNNING AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS REMAIN WEST ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT. GRADUALLY THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL SHIFT S AND E TO THE COAST AND SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW WILL HELP TRIP OFF INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA AND COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR INTERIOR SE NC...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE REALIZED EARLY IN THE DAY AS COOLING AND LOW CLOUDS SETTLE IN...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL THROUGH MORNING. WHILE NO SIMPLE TASK...ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING MAXIMUMS OF UPPER 50S NORTHERN SE NC INTERIOR AND LOW/MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. INTERIOR PARTS OF WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES COULD REACH NEAR 70 AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATE AND BEYOND THE DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM...AROUND 60 AT THE BEACHES TODAY. LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY SUSTAINS -RA CHANCES OVERNIGHT DWINDLING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUMS AT DAYBREAK WIDESPREAD 40S...50 SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR DRIZZLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. I HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY TUESDAY AND OVERCAST SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. I HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AS LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A CLOSED LOW GETS KICKED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A DAY OR SO ON DEVELOPING A HYBRID WEDGE SCENARIO OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH TO THE EAST. FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED AS RATHER WEAK AND WITH MOISTURE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE WEDGE IS SCOURED OUT SATURDAY AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES RISE APPRECIABLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50 AS MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THIS TAF PERIOD WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR CIGS INLAND SHOULD LOWER TO IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH -RA/DZ ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALONG THE COAST...SEA FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT TEMPO PERIODS OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE/KMYR. ADDITIONALLY...200-400 FT STRATUS OVER THE WATERS MAY IMPACT THESE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH RAIN SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. MODERATE PRECIP WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BECOMING LIFR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT MAY LINGER/STALL OVER THE AREA AS IT PASSES TODAY...SO PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT GENERALLY...W-SW WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING AOB 10 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CIGS TUE MORNING WILL BECOME MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR WED/THU. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR OVERNIGHT FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS SLIPPING S TOWARD CAPE FEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL INCREASE MORE INTO AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PRESSES SOUTH. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PMSL GRADIENT ARE WEAK AND NO ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. FOG AND DRIZZLE HOWEVER COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 2 NM AT TIMES. SEAS 2-3 FEET MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL. INCREASING NNE CHOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE. NO TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. REMEMBER TO CHECK BOAT HORNS AND SPOTLIGHTS BEFORE HEADING OUT...WHILE KEEPING IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE HAZARDOUSLY COLD. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN SEAS MAY ECLIPSE THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SWAN RUN. WILL CERTAINLY SEE 3-5 FEET AND MAYBE 4-6 FEET. PRIOR TO AND AFTER SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY. THIS MEANS A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER...MOST OF THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR

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