Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS62 KILM 250522
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
120 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
High pressure will affect the Carolinas through the end of the week.
This will result in the continuation of dry weather. Humidity
will increase by the weekend. An area of low pressure moving
through the Bahamas and to Florida on Sunday into Monday, will be
watched closely for possible tropical development.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Ridging aloft and at the surface will
Spotty showers were occurring offshore. These showers were
associated with an area of of low-level convergence working down
the coast and coincident with an area of increased low-level
moisture. The HRRR model has been consistent in showing these
showers working onto portions of the immediate North Carolina
coast overnight. Will maintain a slight chance for early morning
light showers for portions of the Cape Fear coast.
Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 60s with lower 70s
at the beaches.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Deep ridging remains in place over the
Carolinas through the period with strong mid level subsidence
limiting moisture aloft. The center of the 5h ridge slowly migrates
north Thu, ending up centered over or just west of the local area
later on Fri. Meanwhile the surface high elongates northeast as its
influence slowly weakens. Low level northeast flow will continue
around the southwest side of the high, pushing shallow moisture into
the region. The increased boundary layer moisture will help develop
scattered diurnal clouds each afternoon but subsidence under the
ridging will keep clouds on the flat side. Temperatures will be near
to slightly above climo with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Center of mid to upper ridge overhead
through the weekend will shift slowly north and weaken as
tropical system makes its way west from the Bahamas. At the sfc,
weak high pressure will remain to our north. This will maintain a
deep easterly on shore flow through at least Monday. The ridge
aloft should suppress convection for the most part through Monday
but will see some clouds pass overhead at times and some daily cu
development with an isolated shower or two along. Overall a dry
weekend into early next week, in terms of rainfall, with only
isolated showers, but will continue to have a summertime air mass
in place with temps running near to above normal most days with
overnight lows several degrees above. Should see a slight dip in
temps over the weekend into early next week as 850 temps show a
minor drop but overall fairly consistent summer time temps through
As ridge weakens aloft, the onshore flow will allow for increased
potential for showers especially as tropical system moves west
from the Bahamas heading into mid week next week. Most models show
a weak tropical wave/low reaching the south Fl coast by early
Monday, but then the GFS shows it moving up the southeast coast to FL/GA
coast by Wed while the ECMWF is faster as it keeps it on a more
southern track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico,
strengthening as it reaches the western Gulf coast. For now, it
looks like it will remain quite far south at least through Tues.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...VFR through the period. FM groups only to reflect some
veering of the wind (turning clockwise) later today. The sea breeze
may cause this earlier at coastal airports while high ridge
retreating from the Carolinas does the same a few hours later at
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Possible early morning VFR due to patchy fog
through Monday, otherwise expect VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Wednesday...Northeast flow up to 10 to 15 kt will
continue overnight as high pressure remains centered north of the
area. A modest increase in low-level moisture along with some weak
convergence may result in isolated showers across the waters
overnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Elongated high pressure to the north
will maintain northeast flow through the period. Speeds will be 10
to 15 kt but winds may acquire more of an onshore component each
afternoon, especially Fri, as the gradient relaxes and a weak sea
breeze develops. Seas will run 2 to 3 ft through the period.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...Weak high pressure at the sfc with center
just north through the period. Overall expect a deep E-NE fetch
at the base of the ridge through the period. This will maintain
easterly winds 10 to 15 kts through much of the period. This
easterly push should produce seas 3 to 4 ft through much of the
period with some 5 fters possible in outer waters. WNA model shows
the forerunners from Gaston, a longer period up to 10 sec E-SE
swell, reaching the waters by Sat night and then greater easterly
swell up to 16 seconds reaching the waters by Sun evening.