Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262004 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 304 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE...LOCKING THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. NO RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE WELCOME IN THE MONTH OF MARCH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...PATCHY BLACK ICE AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. THE GROUND IS COLD AND WET AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING MID TO LATE EVE OR OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS AND POOR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 2 MILES IN FOG MAY BECOME QUITE COMMON AND LOCALLY NEAR A QUARTER-MILE. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS. LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY MORNING. DRY AIR IS SCARCE AND IN FACT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION REMAINS CLOUDY. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK IN THE THICK CLOUDS INTO FRI MORNING EVEN AS MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES ABOVE 5-6 KFT. NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY COLD FLOW GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK NOT TOO FAR TO OUR N. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS HIGH. HOWEVER...THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING QUITE AS COLD AS THEIR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME... WE ARE EXPECTING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER THIS SOME DEVELOPING CONFLUENCE IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALLOWS A WEDGE TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE AREA. VERY SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE AREA. WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY...POPS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF 50 DEGREES IN WILMINGTON. BOTH THE MET AND MAV HAVE 49. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MIDDLE 20S SEEM OK FOR SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER VS FRIDAY AS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN. IT MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 IN NORTHERN AREAS. FINALLY SUNDAY MORNING GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT CAMPS WITH THE MET SOME FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER VS THE MAV. I LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE MODIFIED MET CITING OVERCAST SKIES...WHICH ARE DEPICTED BY THE GUIDANCE USUALLY WARRANTS GUIDANCE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COOL BUT LARGELY RAIN-FREE AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ITS MAIN CENTER DRIFTING OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE WEDGE LIFTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MORE OR LESS BIFURCATES. BY 12Z MONDAY ONLY THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE CENTER REMAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT AND NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS SEEN YESTERDAY WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS MEX GUIDANCE IS NOW 10 DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR INSOLATION TO AID IN THERMAL ADVECTION. EVEN SO MONDAY WILL END UP BEING CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME MAKING UPPER 50S FEEL WELCOME. WILL TRIM SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THOSE VALUES. TUESDAY ON THE OTHER HAND NOW DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS COLD AND WEDGE-LIKE BEHIND THE MONDAY COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY HIGHS MAY BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF MONDAY. THIS WEAK WEDGE WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH YET ANOTHER BOUNDARY EN ROUTE FROM POINTS NORTH AND WEST. A DEEP AND MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND WE SHALL FINALLY SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON DESPITE WHAT MAY BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. IN FACT BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS I`D LOVE TO BELIEVE THE MEX NUMBERS THAT SHOW ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST HITTING A HIGH OF 80 OR BETTER-BUT I DON`T. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C AND LAPSE RATES A BIT STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LOW 70S SEEM MUCH MORE PROBABLE. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WHAT LITTLE PRECIP THERE IS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE BY 19-20Z. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY MID CLOUD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BACK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE OVERRUNNING...AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS A GIVEN AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE PRECIP AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH POSSIBLE IFR/MFR CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 6 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 10 PM FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX...BUT SWELL ENERGY WAS HELPING TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. IN FACT...SEAS WERE 6 FT AT WILMINGTON HARBOR AND 9 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. THUS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SEVERAL HOURS. WE DO EXPECT SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 6 FT THROUGHOUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVE HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS A NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES DOWN THE COAST...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE COMMON FACTOR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY NORTH DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. SOME VEERING TO TO NORTHEAST CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS MORE OF A WEDGE CONFIGURATION DEVELOPS. WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RISE FROM 2-4 FEET FRIDAY TO 3-6 FEET EARLY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN THESE HEIGHTS THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE IN ORDER. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE MODERATE AT BEST SO DESPITE SOME SWELL ENERGY MIXING IN WITH THE WIND WAVES OVERALL SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH NO HEADLINES OR FLAGS IN EFFECT. TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THIS WEDGE AND THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE FORMER AIRMASS SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL TURN TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A VEER TO THE NW MIDDAY MONDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AND DOMINANT PERIOD MAY SHORTEN SOME AS SWELL ENERGY ABATES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WEDGES UP AGAINST THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE CAROLINAS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN SWELL AND WIND WAVE COULD BUMP SEAS UP BUT STILL NO HAZARDS/HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254- 256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD/DL

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