Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 280141 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 941 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A front will be stalled well to our north over the weekend only allowing for scattered storms locally. Another front will stall near the area beginning Tuesday keeping the weather a bit unsettled. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 915 PM Saturday...Mid-level s/w trofs will bypass the FA to our north this evening and overnight. The associated convection will follow the same path. Could see convective debris mid and upper level clouds linger across the FA later tonight into daylight Sunday. With westerly flow aloft, any broken or overcast skies early on, should scour out leaving another beach or lake day for Memorial Day Weekenders. With clouds and winds staying active just enough, areas or widespread fog development is not expected. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to around 70. Previous................................................... As of 3 PM Saturday...Short-wave energy was evident in water vapor animations moving quickly toward the E-ESE across KY this mid afternoon. Showers and a few TSTMS ahead the impulses aloft are expected to develop either side of the NC/VA border by late afternoon, scooting quickly ESE from Chesapeake Bay southward to the outer banks of NC by middle evening. Another impulse may bring convection toward our far western I-95 zones into the late evening although diurnal cooling should either weaken it or keep it mainly elevated late tonight. The SPC maintains slight risk N and W of SE NC and NE SC, but a `marginal` risk area encompassing our interior NW zones late tonight. Temperatures were approaching 90 degrees inland this afternoon with dewpoints in the mid 60s. A similar set-up appears in the cards for Sunday with impulses in swift, near-zonal flow aloft approaching NC in the afternoon to coincide with strong diurnal heating. The SPC consequently paints a `slight risk` area just north of the corner of SE NC with a `marginal risk` swath across the northern half of our zones. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat for Sunday. A degree or 2 hotter Sunday 93-90 inland and 85-89 closer to the coast. Lows tonight lower 70s near the coast and upper 60s inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday... A flat upper ridge will be over Florida at the start of the period. It will progress eastward and increase in amplitude as the period progresses. This will tend to shunt most shortwave energy and thus impetus for storm development to our north, even as a weak front moves through Sunday night. But whereas most of the activity will be concentrated to our north we should still have isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms plaguing the region likely driven by mesoscale processes. Given the ample instability in place any storm will be capable of low end severe wind and hail, possibly bolstered by the presence of some weak shear through the column. Temperatures will be running a bit above climatology. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The mid level pattern will show more amplitude across the Eastern U.S. with a broad trough at least initially dipping into the Ohio Valley with ridging off to the southeast. This will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled with ample moisture and several shortwaves. Differences in the global solutions as to timing of course but reconciling the various solutions yields the highest pops, at least for this package occurring Tuesday and once again Friday and Saturday when the mid level flow weakens considerably with an old baroclinic zone providing an impetus for activity oriented east to west. No real fronts pushing through to provide any appreciable airmass change with highs and lows maintaining levels a couple of degrees above average. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 00Z...VFR conditions will dominate thruout the 24 hr 00Z Taf Issuance Period. There is a 30 Prob group for MVFR convection for the LBT terminal only for late Sun aftn into the evening. The mid-level s/w trofs responsible for clusters of convection should remain just north of the ILM CWA during tonight into Sun morning. As a result, have included just VCTS for the LBT terminal only. Overall, convective debris clouds could result in 5k to 12k ft ceilings this evening and overnight. The lower ceilings reserved across the inland terminals. Expect winds to become WSW-W across all terminals tonight with speeds dropping back to around 5 kt, may take a bit longer to drop across the coastal terminals due to an active and somewhat pinned sea breeze. The sea breeze will again develop by midday Sun and may push a bit further inland than previous days due to westerly winds aloft progged to be slightly lower. Extended Outlook...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms mid to late Sunday Evening, and again Monday Night through Tuesday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 915 PM Saturday...Look for WSW winds around 15 kt except SSW 15 kt nearshore this evening or until the mesoscale sea breeze circulation breaks down. Significant seas overnight in the 2 to 4 ft range for the NC waters...highest south of Cape Fear to Little River Inlet, and 2 to 3 ft for the ILM SC waters. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods will dominate the seas. Previous..................................................... As of 3 PM Saturday...Summer-like pattern prevails this period and after-all, it is almost summer. Broad high pressure centered east of Bermuda, extending to Florida will remain anchored in similar fashion through Sunday. This feature with weak troughing inland will sustain 10-15 KT SW winds through Sunday with occasional gusts to 20 KT, especially the afternoons and evenings, as a robust sea breeze circulation plays out. A few strong storms may rake the waters late tonight north of, or around Surf City, and north of Cape Fear Sunday evening. Some of the storms could be quite strong moving generally W to E or to the ESE. The sea state will be a mix of 2-3 foot SW waves every 4-5 seconds and SE waves 1-2 feet every 7 seconds. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...A weak frontal boundary crossing the waters late Sunday night will turn the flow from SW to more westerly. The development of a piedmont trough will turn the flow back to the SW as Monday progresses. Only minor fluctuations in the overall 2 to 3 ft seas forecast is expected. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Its mostly a show of Bermuda High pressure and a summertime pattern with a south to southwest flow throuigh the period. There may be some local and temporary distortion of wind fields due to expected convection but the overall synoptic pattern should remain the same. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/MJC SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH

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