Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 262325 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 625 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s before above normal temperatures return Monday. A warm front will lift northward early Tuesday leading to near record high temperatures by mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday morning, followed by a return to seasonable temperatures late week. Even cooler temperatures are expected by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Latest sat imagery shows crystal blue skies across the ILM CWA this aftn with not even a hint of cirrus. Winds will continue to diminish and likely will decouple by sunset. This leads up to an excellent night of radiational cooling. Clear skies, sfc based inversion develops after sunset resulting in winds decoupling, ie. going calm, and temps dropping like a jet plane in reverse thrust when landing. After highs around 60 this aftn, tonights lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s with upper 30s along the immediate coast. Much of the drop, like a waterfall, will occur during this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Longwave flow aloft this period will be highlighted by fast mainly zonal flow. Some hints of a low amplitude s/w ridging extending north from Florida by Tuesday into Wed. During the same time, a nearly full latitude low amplitude s/w trof progresses eastward from the west coast of the U.S. to the mid- section of the U.S. by Wed. No major pcpn events this period. Only pcpn possible will be for Mon night into Tue as a sfc trof just off the Carolina Coasts swings onshore within southeast low level flow and lifts inland and northward early Tuesday similar to a warm frontal passage. Forcing is weak with this sfc feature but we do have some instability that becomes available. Will indicate pcpn chances on the lower side of guidance late Mon night thru Tue with the threat for isolated Tstorms. The 2 day period will be highlight by a rebound in temps when compared to Sun, with back to above normal on Mon...and well above normal on Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Near record warmth mid-week will be quickly shut off by a strong cold front Thursday morning. Strong WAA ahead of this front Wednesday will drive temps into the 80s away from the coast, and while showers/tstms are possible Wednesday, coverage will only be isolated. More widespread showers and tstms are expected with the cold frontal passage which is progged for very early Thursday morning. By Thursday aftn the region will dry out, and temps will fall back to more typical early-March values for Thu and Fri before a secondary surge of cold air floods into the region Friday night. This will bring even colder into the Carolinas for Saturday with a brief return to winter-temperatures expected before a warming trend begins again on Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 00Z...VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high pressure remains over the area. Light and variable winds tonight will become easterly around 10 KT after daybreak then southeasterly during the afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Ridging from the high`s center over eastern TN and KY will continue across the local waters. The center is progged to move east to the eastern Carolinas tonight and off the NC coast and offshore on Monday. With the sfc pg relaxing, winds will diminish to 10 kt or less by end of today and continuing thru the night. Wind direction may become variable in direction around 5 kt for a time late tonight due to the proximity of the high`s center nearly overhead. Significant seas will continue with their slow subsiding trend due to the ESE 10 second period ground swell taking longer to decay. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods have shaved off 2-3 ft since this morning. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday...No cautionary or advisory thresholds for winds and/or seas this period. Thruout this 2 day period will see a slow increase in wind speeds as the sfc pg slowly tightens...and a slow veering to wind directions will occur. Center of sfc high moves off the NC Coast and offshore during Mon. A sfc pg will be relaxed at the start of this period with NE to E winds less than 10 kt to start the day on Mon. A inverted sfc trof develops just off the coast of the Carolinas by midday Mon and begins to pivot toward the Carolina coasts. Models indicate the southern portions of the sfc trof to pinwheel around to the Carolina Coasts Mon night and onshore lifting northward as a whole during early Tue. Winds will veer to the southeast Mon night and southeast to south during Tue. Speeds will begin increasing especially after the passage of the sfc trof when the sfc pg will begin it`s tightening phase. Significant seas at 1 to 3 ft at the start of this period will build to 2 to 4 ft during Tue with 5 footers possible by Tue night. Pcpn threat will occur mainly Mon night thru Tue night with coverage isolated to widely scattered. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday...Gusty SW winds of 15-20 kts will persist across the waters Wednesday at the gradient pinches ahead of a cold front. This front will cross offshore very early on Thursday, accompanied by a wind shift to the NW followed by a slow decrease in speeds to 10-15 kts by Friday morning. During Friday, a secondary surge will cross the waters, causing a subtle uptick in speeds as well as veering to the N/NE late in the period. Wave heights will steadily increase on Wednesday ahead of the front, reaching SCA thresholds of 4-7 ft late Wednesday into Thursday. Seas will fall back quickly to 2-4 ft behind the front thanks to the offshore winds, but will slowly ramp up again late in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...31 MARINE...DCH/JDW

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