Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021851 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 251 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING UP A STEADY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY RELATIVE TO THE LOWEST LAYERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OFF THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WELL INLAND IN THE VICINITY OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...BUT DRYER AIR ALOFT HAS SO FAR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. AS IS USUAL WITH THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FADE THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING INLAND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TAD ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST PLACES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY THAN OTHER GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING. THE FORCING IS FROM A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP CLOSE TO THE AREA BUT LIKE MOST OF THE FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT WILL DISSIPATE ALMOST WITHIN SITE OF OUR CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FOR THURSDAY. GUIDANCE ISN`T REALLY SHOWING MUCH FOR THURSDAY BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VORTICITY...THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO TREND DOWN VALUES WHILE MAINTAINING SOME MENTION. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANGE...90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND STEAMY 70S FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A CONTINUATION OF VAST MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHINESS FROM CENTRAL AL TO GA COAST MAY POOL SOME MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCE OVER SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE CONVECTION...AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WASHED OUT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS MAY TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT WHILE RAIN CHANCES GO ON THE RISE. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL VERY NEAR THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WHILE KEEPING THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED...MOST MOS POPS ALREADY UP INTO THE 50S RANGE.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A LATER START TO THE DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY +4 KFT. MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE INLAND TAFS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE OKAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AS HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT THE COAST...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TO A LIGHT WSW DIRECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY OCCURRING AFTER 18Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE. SPEEDS VARY FROM JUST UNDER TEN KNOTS...MOSTLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TO 10-15 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS REMAIN STABLE IN A 2-3 FOOT RANGE. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK ON FRIDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LACKING AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A VERY WEAK TROUGH WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY EVEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FROM BEING CAPPED AT 10KT TO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. IN THIS COAST-PARALLEL FLOW THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN OVERALL WAVE HEIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME VEERING.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SRP

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