Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 131501 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1001 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALL WEEKEND. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WHILE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL LAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR A MINOR COOLDOWN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS JUST UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEGATIVE NUMBERS JUST STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO NC. SKIES WILL REMAIN FREE OF CLOUDS TODAY BUT EVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON THE ARCTIC AIR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION IS FROM 3 AM SATURDAY: FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT CONTINUED MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY THEORETICALLY COULD. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS MOST PLACES...A BIT LOWER IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WE MAY SEE A FEW RECORD LOWS BROKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE A STRETCH. FOR EXAMPLE: RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14: WILMINGTON: 5F SET IN 1899/18F FORECAST FLORENCE: 15F SET IN 1968/19F FORECAST NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17F SET IN 1955/20F FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT AT THIS TIME ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... SUNDAY HIGHS NEARLY 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH ARCTIC AIR WEDGE STILL PUSHING INTO THE REGION THOUGH THERMAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY ATOP THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS. THIS RECOVERY WILL BE NOTICEABLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE DO NOT GET NEARLY AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING WITH WHICH THIS UPGLIDE STARTS TO YIELD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL REGARDING OUR POTENTIAL TO PICK UP SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA (WHILE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 1 TO 3 C). WITH SUCH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IT SHOULD TAKE A GOOD WHILE FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND THIS IS SOMETHING MODELS TEND TO DO A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY. LASTLY THE FORCING WILL BE QUITE GENTLE, ARGUING FOR A SLOWER TIMING. EVEN SO HAVE PUT ZR INTO AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT AS SUCH. COASTAL COUNTIES APPEAR TO STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LOW. WHETHER THE MORNING ZR MATERIALIZES OR NOT TEMPS WILL BE RISING PRECIPITOUSLY BY LATE MORNING AND ASSUMING THE WEDGE BREAKS MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE A HIGH OF 60 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. CONTINUED WAA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A VERY MILD NIGHT BUT ALSO KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF PROSPECTS RISING ESPECIALLY SINCE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW NOW APPEAR TO APPROACH MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME RATHER AGGRESSIVE DRYING LATER IN THE DAY. THE COOL ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSET BY A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR FAIRLY SIMILAR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BOLSTERED IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT SHY OF CLIMO BUT WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDS UP AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UNCOMFORTABLE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME TRANSITORY CIRRUS...SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION HAS NOT YET REACHED THE WATERS. STILL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKING RIGHT AROUND 25 KT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE DESPITE WINDS OF 25 KT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY... ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS ON SUNDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE. SEAS COULD BE CLOSE TO SCEC BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING ENOUGH WAVE SHADOWING NEAR SHORE TO PRECLUDE. SUNDAY NIGHT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WHILE OVERALL FLOW SPEEDS DECREASE. SO WHILE THE NEARSHORE SEAS MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN SIZE THE LARGER WAVES OFFSHORE WILL BE GONE. THIS TROUGH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE WEDGE TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP IN SPEED AND ONCE AGAIN WE COULD BE NEAR NEEDED SCEC HEADLINES WHEREAS AN ADVISORY APPEARS NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FAIRLY STRONG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE IN FULL EFFECT. THE FRONT LOOKS A BIT QUICKER NOW AND A SHARP AFTERNOON VEER EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ABATING BUT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING FLOW LOCALLY OUT OF THE NW AT ABOUT 10 TO 15KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250- 252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.