Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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602 FXUS62 KILM 031919 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 319 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...MUCH AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME REGENERATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREAS THAT CLEARED THE EARLIEST...AND THUS HEATED UP THE QUICKEST. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAK TO MODERATE IN SCOPE SO FAR AND THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE THOROUGH WORKING OVER THE ATMOSPHERE RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE THREAT HAS TOTALLY DIMINISHED. WE NOW HAVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COVERED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140...WHICH IS GOOD UNTIL 01Z. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS A RETURN TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE IMPENDING...IF VERY SLOW MOVING...COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEPENING 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE. SO...WE WILL BE RAMPING UP POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HALF INCH QPF DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. WILL ADD SVR WORDING TO THE ZONES TO COVER THE LATEST WATCH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL SITTING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE FROM THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO RIGHT AROUND 70 ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES INDUCED BY THE UPPER COLD POOL WILL ENHANCE PRECIP POTENTIAL...WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE BUT BLOCK IS SHORT LIVED AND BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BE HEADING EAST. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FRI WHEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST. PRESENCE OF ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE COLD 5H LOW OVER NC/VA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...BUT THE BEST ACTIVITY MAY END UP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO FRI AND FRI NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SAT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS LESS LIKELY. MID LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN MORE ON SUN AS THE 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW/SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH MON/TUE BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MOVE BEFORE STALLING. THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR SO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO SAT WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO SUN THROUGH TUE. IF THE COLD FRONT DROPS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED TEMPS COULD END UP NEAR CLIMO MON AND MON NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CU DEVELOPED. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME REGENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AS OF NOW...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS WERE APPROACHING THE MYRTLES AND LUMBERTON. EXPECT BEST CHANCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL INDICATE VCSH/VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ATTM. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT THE INTRODUCTION OF COOLER AIR MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SCT 4SM SHRA THU AND FRI. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES UPON THE COASTAL WATERS. FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MAKE IT OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE. GREATEST THREAT TO MARINERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SEAS SE OF CAPE FEAR MAY RUN A BIT HIGHER THOUGH...MORE LIKE 3 TO 5 FT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SW WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ULTIMATELY BECOMING WEST AND NW BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD SURGE FOLLOWING FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRI WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT INTO SAT. GRADIENT DOES START TO RELAX SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STARTS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS SAT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LATE DAY SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DROPPING FROM 2 TO 4 FT FRI AM TO 2 TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW EVENTUALLY DROPS SEAS TO 2 FT OR LESS SAT BUT DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT SUN.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES. NC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES. MARINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING ALL ZONES.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...RGZ/MRR MARINE...REK/III/SHK

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