Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 262325
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
625 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
Cool temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s before above
normal temperatures return Monday. A warm front will lift
northward early Tuesday leading to near record high temperatures
by mid-week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning, followed by a return to
seasonable temperatures late week. Even cooler temperatures are
expected by next weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Latest sat imagery shows crystal blue skies
across the ILM CWA this aftn with not even a hint of cirrus. Winds
will continue to diminish and likely will decouple by sunset. This
leads up to an excellent night of radiational cooling. Clear skies,
sfc based inversion develops after sunset resulting in winds
decoupling, ie. going calm, and temps dropping like a jet plane in
reverse thrust when landing.
After highs around 60 this aftn, tonights lows will bottom out in
the low to mid 30s with upper 30s along the immediate coast.
Much of the drop, like a waterfall, will occur during this
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Longwave flow aloft this period will be
highlighted by fast mainly zonal flow. Some hints of a low amplitude
s/w ridging extending north from Florida by Tuesday into Wed. During
the same time, a nearly full latitude low amplitude s/w trof
progresses eastward from the west coast of the U.S. to the mid-
section of the U.S. by Wed. No major pcpn events this period. Only
pcpn possible will be for Mon night into Tue as a sfc trof just off
the Carolina Coasts swings onshore within southeast low level flow
and lifts inland and northward early Tuesday similar to a warm
frontal passage. Forcing is weak with this sfc feature but we do
have some instability that becomes available. Will indicate pcpn
chances on the lower side of guidance late Mon night thru Tue with
the threat for isolated Tstorms. The 2 day period will be highlight
by a rebound in temps when compared to Sun, with back to above
normal on Mon...and well above normal on Tue.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Near record warmth mid-week will be quickly
shut off by a strong cold front Thursday morning. Strong WAA ahead
of this front Wednesday will drive temps into the 80s away from the
coast, and while showers/tstms are possible Wednesday, coverage will
only be isolated. More widespread showers and tstms are expected
with the cold frontal passage which is progged for very early
Thursday morning. By Thursday aftn the region will dry out, and
temps will fall back to more typical early-March values for Thu and
Fri before a secondary surge of cold air floods into the region
Friday night. This will bring even colder into the Carolinas for
Saturday with a brief return to winter-temperatures expected before
a warming trend begins again on Sunday.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 00Z...VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period
as high pressure remains over the area. Light and variable winds
tonight will become easterly around 10 KT after daybreak then
southeasterly during the afternoon.
Extended Outlook...VFR. VSBY and ceilings lowered to MVFR/IFR
with pcp Mon night into Tues and again with SHWRs on Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Ridging from the high`s center over eastern TN
and KY will continue across the local waters. The center is progged
to move east to the eastern Carolinas tonight and off the NC coast
and offshore on Monday. With the sfc pg relaxing, winds will
diminish to 10 kt or less by end of today and continuing thru the
night. Wind direction may become variable in direction around 5 kt
for a time late tonight due to the proximity of the high`s center
nearly overhead. Significant seas will continue with their slow
subsiding trend due to the ESE 10 second period ground swell taking
longer to decay. Wind driven waves at 4 to 5 second periods have
shaved off 2-3 ft since this morning.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...No cautionary or advisory thresholds for winds
and/or seas this period. Thruout this 2 day period will see a slow
increase in wind speeds as the sfc pg slowly tightens...and a slow
veering to wind directions will occur. Center of sfc high moves off
the NC Coast and offshore during Mon. A sfc pg will be relaxed at
the start of this period with NE to E winds less than 10 kt to start
the day on Mon. A inverted sfc trof develops just off the coast of
the Carolinas by midday Mon and begins to pivot toward the Carolina
coasts. Models indicate the southern portions of the sfc trof to
pinwheel around to the Carolina Coasts Mon night and onshore lifting
northward as a whole during early Tue. Winds will veer to the
southeast Mon night and southeast to south during Tue. Speeds will
begin increasing especially after the passage of the sfc trof when
the sfc pg will begin it`s tightening phase. Significant seas at 1
to 3 ft at the start of this period will build to 2 to 4 ft during
Tue with 5 footers possible by Tue night. Pcpn threat will occur
mainly Mon night thru Tue night with coverage isolated to widely
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Gusty SW winds of 15-20 kts will persist
across the waters Wednesday at the gradient pinches ahead of a cold
front. This front will cross offshore very early on Thursday,
accompanied by a wind shift to the NW followed by a slow decrease in
speeds to 10-15 kts by Friday morning. During Friday, a secondary
surge will cross the waters, causing a subtle uptick in speeds as
well as veering to the N/NE late in the period. Wave heights will
steadily increase on Wednesday ahead of the front, reaching SCA
thresholds of 4-7 ft late Wednesday into Thursday. Seas will fall
back quickly to 2-4 ft behind the front thanks to the offshore
winds, but will slowly ramp up again late in the period.