Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 102013 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 313 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL PICK UP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WARMUP WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH WILL FILL SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE ONLY CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT LOWS AND CITING THE PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENTS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ABATE FOR THE MOST PART LEADING TO LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A MOISTURE STARVED AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE FRIDAY AS IT MOVES ENE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOW...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TO GET WRAPPED UP IN THIS SYSTEM AND THROWN BACK WESTWARD WHILE THE LOW IS STILL IN THE VICINITY OF LAND. ALSO...WE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EARLY ON BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT IS IMPRESSIVE... ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED AND STRONGEST AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT CAPTURING A PERIOD OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH YOU WOULD NOT EXPECT WITH THIS TYPE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM...THERE IS A DEFINITE MOISTENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY JUST W OF THE IMMEDIATE GRAND STRAND AND WESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF FLORENCE COUNTY ON NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAPE FEAR AND LUMBERTON AREAS. IN THESE AREAS...LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH ICE PELLETS OR SNOW AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TEMPS VERY EARLY FRI MORNING...BEFORE DAYBREAK...SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE WITH THICK CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND AN ONSHORE WIND TAKING HOLD FOR A TIME. ANY WINTRY MIX SHOULD TURN TO LIGHT LIQUID RAIN DURING FRI AFTERNOON. FORECAST POPS ARE CURRENTLY 20/30 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA. POPS WILL BE LOWEST WEST OF I-95 AND IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH WEST OF I-95...IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT QPF EVENT AND AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET OR ICE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS JUST A TRACE COULD MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY GROUND AND ROAD CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON GROUND TEMPS AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FRI EVE...ENDING THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPS THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND ON FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...MID 40S WELL S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. EVEN COLDER TEMPS WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY AS LARGE 1040+MB HIGH SINKS INTO IOWA. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER BUT TEMPS WILL BE HELD WAY BELOW CLIMO. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD HIGHS MAY HAVE A LARGER N/S GRADIENT THAN NORMAL WITH FAR NWRN ZONES STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 WHILE GTOWN AND WBURG `WARM` INTO THE MID 40S. THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD IF NOT THE ENTIRE WINTER. MOST PLACES ABOUT 2 DEGREES +/- 20 DEGREES. SAVING GRACE OF NOT GETTING COLDER (PER ECWMF MOS) IS THAT WINDS STAY UP AND WE DO NOT DECOUPLE. WITH SUCH A COLD START AND SHALLOW MIXING ON SUNDAY EXPECT THE COLDEST HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS IS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS ON THE RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRECLUDE SUCH COLD THOUGH TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTENING ON MONDAY AS NEXT TROUGH BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA AND THE CHILLY HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. SHOULD PRECIP ARRIVE AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IMPLIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS) THEN THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF WINTRY P- TYPE. THE MUCH MORE LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL RAMPING UP OF RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE LEADS TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY LEADING TO A FAIRLY ROBUST RAINFALL LOCALLY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...CONTINUED COLD/ARCTIC AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. LOOK FOR 270-300 WIND DIRECTIONS THRUOUT...WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AS LOW AS 4 KFT ARE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 TO 25 KT THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30+ KT DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING AS CHANNELED VORTICITY MOVES BY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM 4-8 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A DECREASE LATE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS INTACT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS THU WILL BE DROPPING FROM NEAR 20 KT EARLY TO AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT...TO AROUND 15 KT...AS NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPROACHES. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NW OR WNW THU...VEERING TO NE AND E THU NIGHT AND FRI AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY JUST TO OUR S AND THEN PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE ON A ENE TRAJECTORY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL THEN BACK TO NW FRI EVE AND FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THU MORNING...SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT THU AFTERNOON AND 2 FT OR LESS THU NIGHT AND FRI BEFORE BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT EARLY SATURDAY A BIT PINCHED BETWEEN EXITING STORM SYSTEM AND LARGE, STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. CONDITIONS COULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE SCEC HEADLINES ARE NEEDED BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PROGRESSES EAST AND WINDS UP TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF AN EASING OF THE GRADIENT. THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS AIRMASS HEADING INTO MONDAY WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT COULD REALLY RAMP UP WINDS AND SEAS.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON THIS EVENING. ISSUED A MWS FOR LOWER WATER LEVELS FOR THE GRAND STRAND REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK/RAN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK

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