Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 302323 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 723 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER OUR NC COUNTIES...CONTINUES TO FORM AND PUSH NW WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOME ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...BUT IT IS LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED. A NEAR-TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROVIDING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-BASED CONVECTION MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A STALLED AND BARELY-DISCERNIBLE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT. THIS BOUNDARY IS A NON-PLAYER AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT AREAS TO OUR NORTH MAY SEE ENHANCED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE PRESENT PATTERN OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 800 MB WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEPTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL FADE WITH THE SUNSET THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES AND THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR AND VIGILANT WITH REGARD TO KEEPING RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU-OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOME FLATTENING DOES OCCUR DURING LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SUCCESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROFS PUSH BASICALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.S....WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TIME...THEY DO PARTIALLY ERODE THE MID-UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE FA BY DAYBREAK TUE. AT THE SFC...THE STALLED E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 1025+ WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH...WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE WX FEATURE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT BY LABOR DAY AND BEYOND. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE AND PREVALENT PIEDMONT TROF WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER DEFINED PIEDMONT TROF BY MONDAY AND THUS THE OVERALL POP SCHEME WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH A SLIGHTLY HIER CHANCE MONDAY OVER SUNDAY. LATEST SREF ALSO INDICATE A HIER POP FOR MONDAY OVER TUE. SEE NO REASON TO GO AGAINST THIS LAYOUT OF POPS. AS FOR DAILY MAX AND MIN TEMPS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS BETTER PERFORMANCE THE PAST 5 DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE SHORTWAVES RIDE BY IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A FEW COLD FRONTS EAST BUT TRAILING END SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF LOCAL AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE WINDS OR PRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN ALOFT. OVERALL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THE MAIN PLAYERS THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINTAINING A WARM HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT LOCALIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH FOCUS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS UP ABOVE 70 WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 90 ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH S-SE WINDS AOB 8 KT. AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES CALM TONIGHT... EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS AREAS OF BR/STRATUS DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KLBT AND KFLO FROM AROUND 09-13Z...WITH MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBYS AS WELL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE THAN VSBYS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT 1-2KFT CLOUDS TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH EARLY SUN MORNING...ALONG WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER. THE GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHRA ALONG THE COAST SUN MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL DURING THE AFTN. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 6-10 KT DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP UP A STEADY S TO SWLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH SEAS NOT STRAYING FAR FROM THEIR PRESENT 2 TO 3 FOOT HEIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY ILLUSTRATE THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS POSITIONING WILL RESULT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE WATERS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE WSW LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE SFC PG WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN-SOME ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KT AT THE START...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT OR POSSIBLY A SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A DECENT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL SETUP EACH AFTN AND EVENG...AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM FROM THE COAST WITH HIER WIND SPEEDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN A SOLID 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4 FOOTERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY...BUT MORE-SO DURING MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT DUE TO SOLID SYNOPTIC WINDS AROUND 15 KT. A SOLID 2 FOOT EASTERLY GROUND SWELL EXHIBITING 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIODS...WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BUT AS SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE DRIVEN WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE TO THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE GROUND SWELL AND PRODUCE THOSE 4 FOOTERS BY LATE IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...BERMUDA HIGH OFF SHORE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. THE WEAK SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH A SLIGHT CHOP EACH AFTN. WINDS MAY LIGHTEN FURTHER TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THURS WITH A FURTHER DROP IN SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT OR LESS && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH/TRA NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR

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