Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 060745 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY N AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. TEMPS AS COLD AS MINUS 22 DEG C WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR SATURATIONS 2500-6500 FT. THE AIR ABOVE THIS LAYER WILL BE DRY AS WILL THE AIR BELOW...WITH A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILE AGAIN TODAY. OVERALL LIFT LOOKS WEAKER AS COMPARED TO THU AND THE COLUMN DRIER AND THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS. SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...BUT MORE ISOLATED THAN ON THU. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU...UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. LOWS TONIGHT...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THESE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...CUT-OFF LOW WILL SLOWLY EDGE OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SAT AS RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. NW FLOW SAT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON SUN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN NW FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SAT COULD STILL BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT THE RISK SHOULD LARGELY BE OFFSHORE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND. BESIDES THE DRYING TREND...MANY WILL APPRECIATE THE WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS SAT WILL BE APPROACHING NORMAL...MID IF NOT UPPER 70S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE MORE SUMMER-LIKE MID AND UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AROUND 60 SAT NIGHT AND LOW AND MID 60S SUN NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL HAVE A SUMMER-TIME FEEL TO IT AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC...FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH RISING DEWPOINTS AND CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON BOTH DAYS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EACH DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WITH THE EARLIER TREND OF LOWER POPS BOTH DAYS...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AND COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE...THEN VFR...ALTHOUGH MVFR IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS DUE TO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPINNING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST OF NC... IS PROGGED TO LIFT NEARLY DUE N OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NC-VA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK...AND OVER THE DELMARVA BY SUNSET...AND THEN REMAINING IN THIS AREA THROUGH SAT. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL AID IN MVFR STRATOCU AND ALTOCU CLOUDINESS DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. THESE IMPULSES COMBINED WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION LATER TODAY WILL IGNITE CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FIRE BY MIDDAY AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVE HOURS FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TO OUR N WILL FILL THROUGH TONIGHT. W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NW TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NW WINDS EARLY SAT WILL BACK TO W WITH SW WINDS DEVELOPING DURING SUN AND CONTINUING SUN NIGHT AS RIDGING TO THE W OVERTAKES THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KT...BUT UP TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHEN LOW-LEVEL JETTING WILL MAXIMIZE. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW FOR A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PREVAIL. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS IN THE EXTREME OUTER WATERS.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SGL AVIATION...DCH/RJD

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