Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 021029 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 629 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY... NO CHANGES WITH THE 630 AM UPDATE. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE CWA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING CONVECTION...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE MOMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GFS WANTS TO REDEVELOP SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST BUT THAT LOOKS DOUBTFUL AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS IN NEARLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE SEABREEZE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN SIGNALS ABOUT CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. I HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN TO ADDRESS. THE COOLER MET NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYTIME CYCLES AND LEANED TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY. STILL WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE AREA MAY WELL END UP FINDING ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ACTIVE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY PAIRED WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS. WITH STORM MOTION WESTERLY AND STORM LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE GRADED RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY, HIGHEST NORTH. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. A WEAKENING TREND AND PERHAPS A NORTHWARD DRIFT (DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE) SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL COVERAGE SOME EVEN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN POPS IS SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED TRACK FOR VORTICITY MAXIMA (TO OUR NORTH). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORT TERM FRONT TO OUR NORTH SAG BACK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY BUT MERELY AS A TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE AREA AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO WEAKLY CUT OFF AND MEANDER SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. IF FAST ENOUGH THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF A RIDGE OVERHEAD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL THUS FEATURE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A PRETTY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFTERNOON COVERAGE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...VFR EXPECTED THIS TAF VALID PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TO SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE E TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. BROKEN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ELEVATED SW WINDS...GIVEN 25 KT JETTING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. VFR WITH WEST WINDS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...INNOCUOUS FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEING REPORTED AT JMPN7 AND A FLAT 15 KNOTS AT 41013. WILL HOLD ON TO THE SCEC FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL LIKELY DROP AT THE 330 AM ISSUANCE. THE EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTS TO STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTENSIFIES THE LOW LEVEL JETTING. WILL MOST LIKELY HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME AT 330 AM AS SEAS SHOULD ECLIPSE THE SIX FOOT MARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS...MOSTLY OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER WILL INCREASE THE SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS AND ADD SOME GUSTINESS. NOT REALLY ANTICIPATED ANY HEADLINES HOWEVER AS THE LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL FLOW KEEPS THE LARGER SEAS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM FCST ZONE. IT MAY BE CLOSE HOWEVER. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS TO A TROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT RELAXATION OF THE WINDS. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES AROUND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS THE FAINTEST OF SURFACE TROUGHINESS LINGERS ALONG THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO A MORE SEASONABLE INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS WILL FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AS THE DIRECTION REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT SPEED MAY FALL TO JUST 10KTS MOST ZONES. THIS SHOULD SHAVE THE 5 FT SEAS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE 4 FT WAVES FOR A 2 TO 3 FT FCST FOR THE MOST PART. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...RJD/MRR

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