Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 281038 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm late summer conditions will prevail through the weekend. Showers will increase across the area as moisture of tropical origins moves onshore through early this week. A strong cold front is expected to move across the Carolinas late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 638 AM Sunday...Changes were minor with the daybreak updates as isolated showers move onshore early this morning. Heating will expand shower coverage inland later today. The previous forecast discussion follows Mid-level swirl starring in water vapor movies this morning was migrating landward into the Carolinas, ushering an infusion of elevated precipitable water content. The vorticity limb was offering upper support and sensors aboard satellites depicted PWAT`s near 2 inches streaming SW along the outer banks. Radar was sensing echoes offshore moving toward the SW around the Cape Fear region at present, and portions of this convection will move ashore through morning. Diurnal heating today will play a large role in a transition from ocean to land convection, beginning over the coastal interior 1-2 PM, migrating inland through the early evening. Snarled in the upper flow remains the low level circulation of former Fiona near 31.5N 69W, tilted back quite a ways east from the upper low center, so she is not a factor today. Convection will taper inland with diurnal cooling, but isolated to scattered ocean showers will still be moving onshore through the period. Maximums 86- 89 near the coast, and 89-92 deeper inland today, mins 72-75 Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Primary headline this period, `Tropical showers with Fiona stalling off the NC coast late Monday into Tuesday`. Rain chances are good this period as precipitable waters remain in the 2- 2.2 inch range as moisture off the western Atlantic continues to ebb ashore. Diurnal heating will play a large role, expanding interior shower coverage in the afternoons to early evening, while isolated to scattered convection moves onshore through the period. Showers and clouds may keep maximum temperatures tempered into the middle to upper 80s most locations Monday and Tuesday.&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Mid to upper trough begins to dig down from the Great Lakes as it moves east Wed into Thurs. This will push a cold front southeast into the Carolinas and toward local area by late Thurs into Fri. But, initially it will act to push remnant moisture from Fiona eastward and pull up tropical low/wave that was meandering in the Gulf. This may diminish chc of shwrs closer to the coast and may see some dry air move down from the north in northerly flow on Wed into early Thurs, but then front should makes its way down into the area on Thurs. The tropical low moving up from the south may interact with front moving southward to produce increased shwrs/tstms in low level on shore flow Fri into Saturday. Overall forecast may easily change as it depends on many features affecting the area and their timing and interactions. Uncertainty exists in the forecast as the tropical wave/low was initially supposed to make its way north earlier during mid week but now forecast to track north later in week. Temps and dewpoints will drop off next weekend behind cold front and may also be affected by increased clouds and shwrs in possible unsettled weather heading into next weekend. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 3 AM Sunday...Mid to upper trough begins to dig down from the Great Lakes as it moves east Wed into Thurs. This will push a cold front southeast into the Carolinas and toward local area by late Thurs into Fri. But, initially it will act to push remnant moisture from Fiona eastward and pull up tropical low/wave that was meandering in the Gulf. This may diminish chc of shwrs closer to the coast and may see some dry air move down from the north in northerly flow on Wed into early Thurs, but then front should makes its way down into the area on Thurs. The tropical low moving up from the south may interact with front moving southward to produce increased shwrs/tstms in low level on shore flow Fri into Saturday. Overall forecast may easily change as it depends on many features affecting the area and their timing and interactions. Uncertainty exists in the forecast as the tropical wave/low was initially supposed to make its way north earlier during mid week but now forecast to track north later in week. Temps and dewpoints will drop off next weekend behind cold front and may also be affected by increased clouds and shwrs in possible unsettled weather heading into next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 06Z...Showers dissipating over inland areas, but drifting toward the coast in moist E-NE on shore flow. With northeast flow expected in the lower levels tonight there is a chance for low level stratus before daybreak. Guidance shows a mix of fog in spots along with stratus through early morning hours. Therefore have kept with previous forecast to include a scattered deck of stratus generally after 09 utc. Also will include MVFR for BR at KFLO and KILM. After sunrise winds are expected to be from the northeast to east at less than 10 knots with a broken deck of clouds at or above 5000feet. Expect some shwrs/tstms in vicinity of coastal terminals through early this aftn and farther inland mid to late aftn. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR Wed/Thu. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 638 AM Sunday...In terms of wind, welcoming marine conditions, with just a bit of E swell to be mindful of in shallower water areas. Otherwise light NE-E winds on tap 10 KT perhaps a gust up to 15 KT this afternoon near shore. Showers and a few TSTMS will move from NE to SW today through tonight and radar updates are encouraged as some of the storms will pack wind, heavy rain and a few cloud to sea lightning strikes. Today we should witness the `fore-runners` leading long period swell from Gaston, perhaps at first 18-19 seconds, but decaying to 14 seconds tonight. Sea heights from Gaston1 foot or less today but up to 2 feet tonight in 13-14 second intervals. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Light winds to prevail this period but an increase in sea heights is likely, due to swell waves from Fiona and Gaston, with only a light wind chop expected both days. Seas should hold in a 3-4 ft range this period but 5 ft outer portion in E-SE swell. Wave faces will not be steep. Showers and isolated TSTMS are expected Monday and Tuesday, as former Fiona approaches the 0-20 NM waters but stalls offshore late Monday and Tuesday before moving north toward or offshore of the outer banks of NC. No advisories this period but remember that winds and waves are always higher in and near TSTMS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday...Tropical wave/trough extending up from gulf into the southeast waters, will produce lighter and more variable winds across the waters. Winds should be more northerly closer to the coast but may see E-SE winds at times depending on position and timing of this feature as well as a cold front pushing down from the north late Thurs into Friday. Overall expect winds mostly from the E-NE 10 kts or less initially. Seas between 2 and 4 ft will continue to be dominated by a slowly diminishing longer period swell up to 13 seconds.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RGZ

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