Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 240217 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1017 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will move slowly away from the Carolinas tonight with a few showers and storms possible through nightfall. High pressure will build across the region on Tuesday...and then move offshore as a Bermuda high through the end of the week. This will bring above normal temperatures with ample sunshine through Friday. More unsettled weather is possible this coming weekend as a trough approaches the coast from the Bahamas. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 930 pm Monday...POPs have been deleted for the remainder of this evening and overnight. This based on latest mosaic 88d reflectivity trends and models indicating a more stable picture overnight given the loss of the days heating. Much of the diurnal cu field has dissipated leaving mostly clear skies. One of the last mid-level vorts rotating around the upper low, will partially pass across the FA overnight. Worse case scenario, scattered to possibly bkn altocu or stratocu clouds may accompany or be produced by the upper vort. This displayed by various model rh time heights for locations across the FA, as well as model soundings. Will tweak min temps lower by 1 to 3 degrees, mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5 heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may reach 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90 inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast. Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday. Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip chances. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 00Z...Showers resulting from instability induced by daytime heating and the cool pool associated with the upper level low over the region are winding down as the sun sets. Outside of a little MVFR fog, mainly at inland terminals, conditions should be VFR through the valid TAF period. Light north to northwest winds tonight will become southwest at 5 to 10 KT during the day Tuesday. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 pm Monday...Looking at mainly offshore nw to nnw winds this evening and overnight as the upper and sfc lows begin to accelerate ne, further away from the area. This will allow ridging from sfc high pressure from the west to extend into the area. The sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt for wind speeds. Significant seas will run around 2 ft...except a few 3 footers from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves will remain a low input to the overall significant seas equation. Basically, a 1 to occasional 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods will dominate the significant seas input. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will generally be 3 ft or less. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer period swell develops. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RAN

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