Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KILM 240217
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1017 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
An upper low will move slowly away from the Carolinas tonight with
a few showers and storms possible through nightfall. High pressure
will build across the region on Tuesday...and then move offshore
as a Bermuda high through the end of the week. This will bring
above normal temperatures with ample sunshine through Friday. More
unsettled weather is possible this coming weekend as a trough
approaches the coast from the Bahamas.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 pm Monday...POPs have been deleted for the remainder of
this evening and overnight. This based on latest mosaic 88d
reflectivity trends and models indicating a more stable picture
overnight given the loss of the days heating. Much of the diurnal
cu field has dissipated leaving mostly clear skies. One of the
last mid-level vorts rotating around the upper low, will partially
pass across the FA overnight. Worse case scenario, scattered to
possibly bkn altocu or stratocu clouds may accompany or be
produced by the upper vort. This displayed by various model rh
time heights for locations across the FA, as well as model
soundings. Will tweak min temps lower by 1 to 3 degrees, mainly
along and west of the I-95 corridor.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...A quiet mid week period with drying and
warming trend as pesky upper low lifts off to the northeast and
ridge builds in. Overall high pressure begins to dominate with
center in the off shore waters of the southeast, north of
bahamas. The light southerly return flow combined with rising h5
heights will allow for temps to soar into the 80s with plenty of
May sunshine both days. Tuesday should see close to 30 degree
temp rises after a cool start. By Wednesday, some locations may
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Very warm summertime conditions forecast
for the end of the week and the weekend as Bermuda high spins
offshore and mid-level ridging blossoms from the Gulf
Coast...moves overhead...and expands across the southeast. This is
a pattern that suggests above normal temperatures...but also
increasing humidity on the SW return surface flow. However...the
ridging aloft will keep the mid-level dry thanks to
subsidence...so diurnal convection will be isolated at best...and
other than Thursday thanks to a weak impulse moving overhead...the
Thu-Sat timeframe will be dry with temps approaching 90
inland...low/mid 80s closer to the coast.
Uncertainty increases for the weekend and into the Memorial Day
holiday. The surface and mid-level ridge drift north as a weakness
develops beneath it. Within this weakness a trough of low pressure
is progged to move out of the Bahamas and drift slowly towards the
southeast coast. The GFS has been incredibly consistent with this
feature...despite large fluctuations in its position and
intensity...while the ECM/CMC...which have been showing a weak
trough...have jumped on board with a more significant system with
the 12z suite today as well. GFS Ensembles are almost entirely in
agreement with the op-run also. While it is far too early to mention
any actual low pressure affecting the area...there is increasing
confidence that deepening easterly flow connected to the tropics
will create more unsettled weather this weekend and into Monday.
Have trimmed highs a bit for Sun/Mon while also ramping up precip
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Showers resulting from instability induced by daytime heating
and the cool pool associated with the upper level low over the
region are winding down as the sun sets. Outside of a little MVFR
fog, mainly at inland terminals, conditions should be VFR through
the valid TAF period. Light north to northwest winds tonight will
become southwest at 5 to 10 KT during the day Tuesday.
Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 pm Monday...Looking at mainly offshore nw to nnw winds
this evening and overnight as the upper and sfc lows begin to
accelerate ne, further away from the area. This will allow ridging
from sfc high pressure from the west to extend into the area. The
sfc pg will remain relatively relaxed, yielding around 10 kt for
wind speeds. Significant seas will run around 2 ft...except a few
3 footers from Cape Fear northward. Wind driven waves will remain
a low input to the overall significant seas equation. Basically,
a 1 to occasional 2 foot ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods
will dominate the significant seas input.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions expected through
mid week as high pressure takes residence over the off shore
waters off the southeast coast. Overall expect a light southerly
return flow to set up. Near shore seas will experience some chop
in the afternoons due to a strong sea breeze setting up as temps
warm well into the 80s...more typical May conditions. Seas will
generally be 3 ft or less.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...S winds around Bermuda high pressure will
be predominant Thu/Fri before winds back more to the E/SE late in
the period. Gradient around the offshore high remains weak...so
winds Thu/Fri will be 10 kts or less...and the combination of
these light winds and a 2ft/8sec SE swell will drive wave heights
of 1-2 ft Thu...2-3 ft Friday. Late Friday and Saturday confidence
decreases as a wave of low pressure may emerge from the Bahamas
and approach the waters. This will drive increasing easterly winds
and wave heights building to 3-4 ft...possibly higher if a longer
period swell develops.