Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 291853 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 253 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AND PREVAIL THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP IN THE MORE MOISTURE LADEN AREAS NEAR SOUTHPORT AND ALONG THE BLACK RIVER ON THE BORDER OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN A LINE FROM MYRTLE BEACH TO EAST OF WHITEVILLE. THUS THE AREAS EAST OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL CEASE TO EXIST AFTER SUNSET. A VERY QUITE NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC. AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUMP UP AGAINST THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT REMOTELY SO. MAINLY A WEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD SEE AN MVFR CEILING AFTER THE SUN COMES UP. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER OFF SHORE THE WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL 5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...DRH SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DL/DRH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.