Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 160003 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 803 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG SURGE OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS ENDING. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR SOME LOCATIONS WELL INLAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MARCHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVE AND WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 900-930 PM. SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FURTHER E UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 50S WITHIN AN HOUR OF PASSAGE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS AT ABOUT 5 KFT TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES CELCIUS. AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR DAYBREAK WED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW 10 TO 15 MPH. THUS...WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WED MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...WINTER TO MAKE ONE FINAL (HOPEFULLY) RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY THAN APRIL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF WHICH TO SPEAK DURING MID-WEEK...THE SHORT TERM IS PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SUB-60 (APPROACHING RECORD LOW HIGHS). IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW 60 THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT TRUE AND STRONG CAA IN PLACE. WHILE NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY...AND BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW THE AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA...FULL MID-APRIL SUN AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WHICH ACTUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1290M (SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW!) TO 1320M BY THE WED NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY A VERY SHALLOW COLD DOME AND WEAK MIXING...WILL BUMP HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY FROM INHERITED. STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SUB-60 ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PEE DEE AND SOUTH SANTEE RIVER BASIN. GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE WEDGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THROUGH THE AFTN. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...BUT MUCH MORE REASONABLE FOR MID-APRIL. THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...AND WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE. MOS BULLETINS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MID 30S AT THE COAST. THIS WOULD APPROACH OR SET RECORDS: RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING 4/17: WILMINGTON, NC - 34 FLORENCE, SC - 33 NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC - 32 HOWEVER...EXPECT IT WOULD TAKE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OR STRONG CAA TO DRIVE TEMPS TO FREEZING...NEITHER OF WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN FACT SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE OCEAN MAY CREATE SOME ENHANCED STRATUS/STRATOCU WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT COOLING. NONETHELESS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 30S LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL PREVENT THE NECESSITY FOR ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS...FROST IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO NO FROST IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...BUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS LOW RAIN CHANCES LONG THE COAST. DRY AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS WILL MID LEVEL NVA DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. DAMPENING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE AND SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE FOR MONDAY...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KFLO/KLBT TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KFLO AND WILL END AT KLBT BY 01Z. NW-N WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONLY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF BRIEF BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH KCRE/KMYR 00-01Z AND KILM 01-02Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. POST FRONTAL MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER FROPA...WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT KCRE/KILM. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR/CLEAR SKIES AND N-NE WINDS AFTER SUNRISE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS DECREASING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE...
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW/BJR LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR

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