Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 291135 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 735 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE COAST NEXT WEEK INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 850 MB HIGH WILL MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. DESPITE ALL THIS HIGH PRESSURE THERE IS A WEAK SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR COMPOSITES AT 6 AM SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. MOST MODELS KEEP THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW WITH NO IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C ARE DOWN ABOUT 1 DEGREE C FROM YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS 90-94 INLAND AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH...A RESIDUAL BUBBLE OF DRY AIR IN THE 950-700 MB LAYER SHOULD KEEP OUR SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST TODAY. FOR TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM IN A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S INLAND. THIS...PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WARRANTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SIGNAL FOR MOSTLY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED THESE MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. PERHAPS A FEW MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ON THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NOW LIGHTING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MAKES IT EAST. TEMPERATURE FORECAST/GUIDANCE WARRANTS ONLY TOKEN CHANGES AS UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER 90S INLAND CONTINUE. 70S FOR MORNING LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING AS BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...NOTABLE FEATURES WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE POPS ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SURFACE FEATURES GET AN ASSIST FROM THE UPPER LEVELS. THE TIMING HOWEVER IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PERIOD MODULATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTH MAX AND MINS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BY JUST ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT THIS AM BECOMING S TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WITH THE S TO SE FLOW...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SUCH THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...TAFS HAVE MVFR FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 500 FEET BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AFTER 06Z. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR FOR OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT. INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY "FLAT" AND WIND SPEEDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE WITH SOME 4-FOOTERS LIKELY OCCURRING OUT AT THE OFFSHORE LEJEUNE BUOY...LIKELY IN RESIDUAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL TRANSITION. SWAN SEAS SHOW A CONSISTENT 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LATE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS...NOW VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL COMPONENT WILL BE 1-3 FEET. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RAN

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