Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 300212 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1012 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A VERY WEAK...BUT DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A LATE SEASON FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM. THE FROST ADVISORY INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND IN SOUTH CAROLINA...HORRY...MARION AND DILLON COUNTIES. PATCHY FROST AT BEST IS EXPECTED ACROSS GEORGETOWN... WILLIAMSBURG...FLORENCE...DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES. ANY FROST WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR A TIME. ON THE WHOLE...TEMPS WILL BE STABILIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPWARD TENDENCY AS CLOUDS SIGNIFICANTLY THICKEN LATE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE UNSEASONABLE/RECORD COLD FOR THIS WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID OFF THE COAST AS EXPECTED AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVED INTO THIS RIDGE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. THERE IS NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE VORTICITY IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW IS WEAK AND FAST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND PWATS RISE TO ONLY 0.75-1.0 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW COMBINED WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL STILL CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING MONDAY...BUT WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE ONLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE. SREF PLUME MEAN QPF IS ACTUALLY ONLY AROUND 0.05 INCHES AT ILM...BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SC ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP...AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT IS LACKING ANYWAY. THUS...TEMPS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S...STILL BELOW NORMAL BUT BETTER THAN THIS PAST WKND...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BENEATH ABUNDANT LATE-MARCH SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 70 INLAND WITH UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST...AND LOW 60S AT THE BEACHES. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MINS ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT...STRUGGLING TO FALL EVEN BELOW 50 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THOUGH IT`S TOO EARLY TO TELL...SOME SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE DEWPOINTS CREEP HIGHER ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PER TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT POPS UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT GETS CLOSER THIS WEEKEND. THUS LOWERED POPS THU-FRI TIME FRAME AND KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL MID-MORNING. MONDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WEARS DOWN THE SFC BASED INVERSION. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP KLBT/KFLO IN THE PRE- DAWN HOURS AS LOW VFR/MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOP. THESE CIGS WILL REACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE. AS THE FRONT NEARS CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR. THIS SHOULD BE MID-MORNING AT KFLO/KLBT...AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VSBYS COULD DROP AT TIMES TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. IFR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES MID AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT AND LATE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...A RIDGE AXIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVE. EXPECT SSW-SW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS THE COOL NEAR-SHORE SHELF WATERS. BEYOND 15 NM...OCEAN TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...AND WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW- LEVEL JET...EXPECT WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS TOWARD MORNING. AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE PERIOD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE PINCHED GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY... REACHING AROUND 20 KT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO THE NW WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE TO 10-15 KT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY...SO AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN 4-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED...AND A SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-2 FT ON THE VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE TO 2-4 FT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 340 PM SUNDAY...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION DURING WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF CAPE FEAR INCREASES FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERLY FETCH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT (LOWER INSHORE) EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THU...THEN 3-5 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ024-033-053-054. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR

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