Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KILM 271901 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 202 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING A STRONG WEDGE DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT CHILLY... WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING ONE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 WITH SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS COLD HIGH BUILDS STRONGLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO BECOME ELEVATED. NNE TO NE WINDS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER OVERNIGHT THEN THEY WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVE. THESE WINDS SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE TEMP DROP WILL BE MODERATED BY THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS LATE TONIGHT...UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FLAT FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO BROAD SE RIDGING THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BULGE FROM THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN SUNDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE PRESSURE VENTILATING OUT THROUGH THE RISING HEIGHTS...AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...BUT COOL AND MOIST NE FLOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY...AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW 30S...AS COOL NE FLOW OVERCOMES THE INSULATING EFFECTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT MINS FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL...AND LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BIG TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT TWO COLD FRONTS IMPACT THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS...BUT FORTUNATELY THIS TIME AROUND NO WINTRY PRECIP AS TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE...FOR A CHANGE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY AND WILL STILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN EXPERIENCED THROUGH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF FEBRUARY. RIDGE OVERHEAD STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIVES THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. MEX HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS 80+ READINGS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING THE WARMEST DAY SINCE AT LEAST FEB 9TH...WHICH WAS THE LAST 70+ DEGREE DAY LOCALLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THIS ONE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY ONLY LOW POP FOR NOW SINCE THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY SLOW THE FROPA...BUT A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE COLD MAY FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THE CIRRUS IS WANING WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLE ONLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE IS A 5K DECK OF STRATOCU JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS COULD GO BROKEN AT FLO AND LBT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP. RETURN HIGH CLOUD MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A POSSIBLE MID CLOUD CEILING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEDGE SETS UP. WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS EVE. AS THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST STATES THIS EVE...IT WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP SOONER. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY SAT MORNING AND BY THAT TIME...A WEDGE WILL BE JUST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT TO ALMOST PINCHED. THUS...WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE OF UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE NNE TO NE. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS EVE AND TO 4 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF LONG BAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 3 FT BY MORNING. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FOR SATURDAY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS PINCHING THE GRADIENT. THIS DRIVES NE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 4-7 FT...EXCEPT IN THE WAVE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT. THE WEDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH MORESO ON SUNDAY...SO ANY HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL EASE TO 10-15 KTS AND VEER TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVE. WEDGE COMPLETELY ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SW WHILE REMAINING AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2-3 FT MUCH OF SUNDAY...BUT THEN RISE AGAIN LATE ON THE SW WINDS...BECOMING 3-4 FT MOST OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TOWARDS...AND THEN ACROSS...THE WATERS DURING MONDAY PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS THAT WILL VEER FROM SW EARLY MONDAY...TO NE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER...SO SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE WATERS THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE NE WINDS...BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN VEER THROUGH HALF THE COMPASS...BECOMING SW AND RISING TO 15-20 KTS LATE. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH COMPRISED BY A VARIETY OF WIND WAVES WHICH WILL FOLLOW THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE PERIODS OF CONFUSED WAVE STATES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY SEAS BUILD TOWARDS 6 FT...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.