Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 290148 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 948 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL REAPPEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A NEW BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE SEABREEZE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGED. THESE ARE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD END THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...FROM W TO E. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND FOR THE NORTHERN PEE DEE THROUGH NORTHERN GRAND STRAND COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL LOWER POPS BELOW THRESHOLD...FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FOG AS WINDS EVEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN DID FALL TODAY WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PATCHY FOG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...WITH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN FLORENCE! THE SEABREEZE WILL BE DELAYED BY THE OFFSHORE WIND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BEACHES TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES OR BETTER BEFORE THE SEABREEZE FINALLY FORMS AROUND 2-3 PM. WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT DOES NOT BUILD APPRECIABLY SOUTHWARD. THIS VEERING LOW- LEVEL WIND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...LEADING TO GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. IT`S WORTH NOTING THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH MORE MOIST (AND CLOUDIER) AND THEREFORE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THE COOL EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND PREDICTED ON BOTH MODELS THE 12Z GFS HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM REGARDLESS OF WHAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TURNS OUT TO BE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS THIS COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95...PERHAPS BECOMING A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WPC CONTINUES TO PREFER A SOLUTION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES MIXED IN. THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER. A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY A DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GIVE SURFACE FEATURES MORE PUSH. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR SUNDAY WITH AN INITIAL WAVE AND TUESDAY WHEN A SECOND WAVE MOVES BY. CERTAINLY NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED BUT WPC QPF FOR DAYS 4-7 ARE NEAR TWO INCHES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE BUT STILL OVERALL AVERAGES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...COULD GET A LITTLE INTERESTING OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A MCS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA AFTER 03Z. IT EVEN HAS EXPANDED A BIT TO INCLUDE LBT. WILL INTRODUCE THUNDER AT LBT AND ILM AFTER 04Z. THE MODEL DOES WEAKEN IT AS IT REACHES THE COAST...HOWEVER THESE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVING SYSTEMS SEEM TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE MCS. AFTER PASSAGE...LOOK FOR MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS WITH PERHAPS SOME FRACTUS. AFTER DAYBREAK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTHWEST...BECOMING VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FRI MORNING. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO WSW NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN NW FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT NEAR DAYBREAK. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. INTENSE SOLAR HEATING INLAND SHOULD HELP DEVELOP AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WITH NEARSHORE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT DOESN`T DIG SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE IN PLACE SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. BY MONDAY A FRONT MOVING CLOSER INCREASES THE GRADIENT AND BACKS THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST A BIT. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. THE FRONT EASES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET. THERE COULD BE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS MIXED IN BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY AS WELL.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL

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