Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UPR MS VLY TO OPEN UP AND RIDE OVER THE
SE US RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INITIAL S/W VORT LOBE TO
PIVOT EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SFC WAVE WHICH WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG
STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INITIAL
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN OHIO WEAKENING AND SHUD CONTINUE
TO FALL APART. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMGRY SHOWS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT SFC BASED CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY ACRS SRN OHIO TO BE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ILN/S 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH IS YIELDING DELTA
THETA-E VALUES OF 20 DEG C.

EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK SFC WAVE LONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN IN THE UNSTBL
AIRMASS. GIVEN DRY MID LEVELS AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES AROUND 7500
FEET...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO WITH THE PRIME
TIME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM.

GOOD GRADIENT TO HIGH TEMPS WITH ONLY UPPER 50S FAR NORTH...TO
UPPER 70S FAR SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA TODAY TRAVELING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF THIS REGION TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS WELL TODAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOME CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THEIR AREA
TODAY. DUE TO THIS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES AS WELL AND HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR
HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SRN INDIANA TO RIPPLE EAST THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG E-W ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LOW IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACRS SRN OHIO AND NRN KY THIS AFTN.
THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND IMPROVE AHEAD OF
THIS CONVECTION. HAVE USED VCTS TO IDENTIFY THE BEST PERIOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE SFC WAVE...
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
TO DEVELOP ACRS ALL TAF SITES.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK/AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...AR



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