Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 010530
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT`S CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF IND/DAY TO NEAR MFD. DIURNAL
DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS CONTINUING...WITH NO LIGHTNING AT THIS
TIME. SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WNW WINDS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AGAIN AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW POPS ACRS THE NW LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

THE WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS
IDENTITY SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING AND
THEN ALLOW CHANCES TO DIMINISH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA INTO TUESDAY.  A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS TIME HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER WENT WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WITH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND THEN COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE VFR RANGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW...GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...HATZOS/AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.