Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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151
FXUS61 KILN 180917
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions across the region
today. A warm front will then lift northward tonight into
Monday bringing a return of precipitation to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry conditions will be present today with high pressure. As the
high shifts to the east southerly flow will begin to develop
allowing for temperatures to climb into the 40s to around 50.

Low clouds will decrease this morning. Cannot rule out some fog
this morning, primarily across southeast Indiana and portions of
northern Kentucky as the cloud cover decreases. High clouds
will be on the increase later in the day in advance of the next
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Temperatures will drop off for the first half of the night
before southerly flow becomes more pronounced. As clouds
increase and southerly flow increases temperatures will begin to
rise tonight.

Rain chances will primarily hold off until the second half of
the night. At first there will be some rain chances across
southeastern portions of the region in association with a weak
upper level disturbance.

Additional rain chances will move in overnight and then push
northwards on Monday associated with a warm frontal boundary and
increase in moisture. There is some weak instability that
develops along and south of the Ohio River and therefore
cannot rule out some isolated thunderstorm development across
this area Monday afternoon.

Southerly flow increases on Monday with model soundings
indicating some wind gusts upwards of around 35 mph. Although
decent cloud cover will be present, with the increase in
southerly flow expect temperatures to still climb into the 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Anomalously strong Bermuda high for this time of year will keep the
region in deep south southwest flow. This will likely result in
record warm temperatures on Tuesday. Most of the forecast area will
be precipitation free Monday night and Tuesday, although far
northwest counties will be in close enough proximity to a slow-
moving front to keep a chance of rain there.

Short wave lifting out of the Plains into the Great Lakes will
flatten/reorient the axis of the high and allow the front to move
across the area on Wednesday. Models continue to forecast extremely
high precipitable water, up to 300 percent of normal. So heavy rain
remains a concern, especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Analogs suggest 1 to 2 inches are possible. With the ground already
saturated in many areas, flooding is possible. Starting to see some
indications that a weak instability axis develops immediately ahead
of the front, so cannot rule out some embedded thunder. Tuesday
night will be very mild. Expect early highs on Wednesday with
temperatures falling thereafter.

A wave along the front will track across the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday, so there could be a secondary surge
of rain in the southeast at that time. High pressure passing across
the Great Lakes will briefly build in and allow for a dry period.
But another surge of moisture will push north across the area as a
warm front lifts across the area late Thursday night into Friday.
This will bring a return of the extremely high precipitable water
values. More showers are expected Saturday ahead of an approaching
cold front. Temperatures will be cooler than earlier in the week but
still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs will be around for most of the overnight hours. Some
fog will also be possible especially if there is some clearing.
Gusty winds at the start of the TAF period will diminish some
overnight.  Any precipitation will move out near the start of
the TAF period. Dry conditions are then expected. Rain showers
will begin to move into the KCVG TAF at the end of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
on Monday. MVFR conditions possible at times from Monday night
through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Novak



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