Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
436 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

A weak upper level disturbance will result in a chance of
showers today. A warm front will lift north across the region on
Tuesday, leading to mild temperatures and a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. A cold front will sag slowly southeast
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring
a continuation of widespread showers and thunderstorms through
mid week.


A weak mid level short wave currently over the mid Mississippi
Valley will push quickly east across the upper Ohio Valley
through this afternoon. Ahead of this, a 30-40 knot 850 mb jet
will shift northeast across the Tennessee Valley and nose up
into the upper Ohio Valley through this morning before weakening
and shifting off to the east this afternoon. This will be
accompanied by some weak lower level isentropic lift as noted
on the 290K surfaces, continuing to spread into southern
portions of our fa this morning before shifting north into
northern portions of our fa through this afternoon. This should
allow for pcpn to develop across southwest portions of our fa
through daybreak and then overspread at least the rest of our
southern fa through the mid to late morning hours. With the
better low level convergence remaining across southern portions
of our fa, there is some model uncertainty as to how far north
the pcpn will make it. Several of the higher res models are
trying show some spotty weakening showers pushing all the way up
across most of the rest of our area through this afternoon.
Will therefore linger at least some low chance pops up across
northern portions of our fa into this afternoon. Highs today
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


A warm front will approach from the southwest overnight and then
lift northeast across our area through Tuesday morning. This
will be accompanied by strengthening southwesterly low and mid
level flow on Tuesday with a 40-50 knot 850 jet nosing into
western portions of our fa toward daybreak and then
overspreading the rest of our area during the mid to late
morning hours. In increasing low level convergence and
isentropic lift, expect to see shower development spread into
southwest/western portions of our area late tonight and then
become more numerous across the remainder of our area as we
progress through the morning on Tuesday. As we get more into
the warm sector and start to see some destabilization, some
embedded thunder will also be possible. This activity should
then push off to our east through the afternoon hours on
Tuesday. In developing low level WAA, expect highs on Tuesday
mainly in the 60s.

Short wave energy will move out of central Rockies and into the
Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. As it does, a
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes into the mid
Mississippi Valley will sag slowly southeast into our area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with waves of low pressure riding
northeast along the front. There continues to be some model
timing and placement issues with the front as it moves through
our area on Wednesday, with the 00Z GFS and CMC generally
faster than the 00Z ECMWF and NAM. Nonetheless, in broad and
strong southwesterly flow ahead of this, strong moisture
transport will develop across the region Tuesday night with PWs
pushing up into the 1.25 to possibly 1.5 inch range. This will
also help pull some better instabilities northeast into at least
western portions of our fa later Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. This will allow for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop/spread into our area Tuesday night and
push down across our area heading into Wednesday. Very strong
wind fields will result in impressive lower and deep shear
values and hodographs. The biggest question will be the amount
of instability but it does looks like there should be at least
enough to combine with the strong dynamics to result in a decent
severe threat Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the high PWs
and possibility for some training storms, heavy rain will also
be a concern. GEFS plumes are ranging from 1 to 2 inches of rain
across our area and we could end up with localized higher
amounts than this. Six hour FFG values are running around 2
inches so we may very well end up with some flooding concerns as
well Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will likely be non diurnal both Tuesday night and
Wednesday and will be dependent on the exact timing of the
front. Will keep temperatures pretty steady Tuesday night given
the good southerly flow and then start to drop them off across
at least the northwest heading into Wednesday afternoon.


A weak clipper type system will drop down out of Canada
Wednesday night and pivot east across the Great Lakes Thursday
into Thursday night. This will lead to a chance of showers for
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with the highest pops
across our northeast, closest to the better forcing. Depending
on the timing, we may be cold enough for a brief mix across our
northwest on Thursday. However, thermal fields off the forecast
soundings suggest the pcpn should be mainly liquid during the
day on Thursday, before possibly changing over to some snow from
the north Thursday night before ending.

Weak mid and upper level ridging will develop through the end of
the week. A weak short wave may drop down across the Great Lakes
on Saturday but it looks like any pcpn associated with this
should remain well off to our north. In developing WAA,
temperatures will moderate through the weekend with readings
pushing well above normal once again.


Light returns are showing up on radar stretching from southern
Illinois and western Kentucky eastward into far southern
Ohio/eastern Kentucky. Just based on surface obs though, it
does not appear that much of this is reaching the ground so
far. As a result, will just have some mid level clouds across
the area at the start of the TAF period. The low level jet is
forecast to gradually strengthen as we progress through the pre
dawn hours. This should allow for the pcpn to fill in some more
and start to reach the ground as the lower levels begin to
saturate. As a result, expect the best chance for rain to be at
the southern TAF sites through the mid to late morning hours.
Will therefore carry a prevailing -shra at KCVG and KLUK for a
period and just have a vcsh later today at the remaining TAF
sites. Cigs should drop down into MVFR category later this
morning and then continue through much of the afternoon before
lifting back to VFR this evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday into
Wednesday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings
may linger into Wednesday night and be possible again Thursday
night. Wind gusts to 30 kts will be possible Wednesday afternoon
and evening.




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