Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 310802
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING FOR NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WARM UP BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE REMAINED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FORECAST LOOKS DRY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THIS EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT SKIRTED PAST THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC.
WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AS
OHIO FALLS UNDER AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PULL
EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE IN MANITOBA ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY WIDESPREAD
WAA AND POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN. PWATS ALSO APPROACH
1.10" ON THE GFS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA. THE GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND CORRESPONDING RAINFALL TOTALS. THE EURO AGAIN IS
THE SLOWEST WITH THE FRONT NOT PUSHING IT INTO THE AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE FRONT INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND CMC SEEM TO BE
A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND HAS THE FRONT ABOUT 6 HRS
BEHIND THE GFS.

ALONG THE FRONT RAIN LOOKS LIKELY DUE TO GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE... POWERFUL LLJ... AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RRQ. HAVE
RAISED POPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUNDER ALSO LOOKS LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW PARCELS BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE
EL WITH LITTLE CIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE PLAINS. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. A SFC TROF/WEAK CDFNT DROPS THROUGH THE
ERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. KEPT ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NORTHEAST OF THE FA FOR NOW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 50.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL PUSH A
WRM FRNT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN
THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. AS IT DOES...SOME SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN
VFR CU/SC WILL DEVELOP THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE
LOW APPROACHES AND THEN BEGIN TO VEER AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







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