Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 031406
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST...ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN SATURDAY DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH HIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED 925-850
MB LOW WORKS EAST...SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BETWEEN THIS AND SOME INCREASING INSTABILITIES...EXPECT
PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO NUDGE UP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY...UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES IN OUR SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLOWER MOVING
STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE ENE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S SE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SE CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT HAVE CUT BACK POPS. GENERALLY EXPECT A DRY
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACRS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LTL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING
ACROSS KENTUCKY ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS THAN
IDEAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SOUTHERN SITES CVG AND LUK WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN. ILN MAY ALSO SEE MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH.
KEPT DAY CMH AND LCK IN VFR THOUGH A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN PEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MVFR THERE AS WELL.

WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW THOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER FORECASTS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST. BR MAY FORM LATER TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ078>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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