Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
428 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will provide the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. A wave of low
pressure traveling along the front will bring the likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend when upper
disturbances are forecast to interact with a persistently moist
and unstable airmass.


Surface analysis features a slow moving frontal boundary near the
Ohio River. With dew points around 70 and winds light, patchy fog
has developed and will persist for a few hours until the rising
sun burns it off.

A couple of showers are lingering in the southeast early this
morning near the boundary. Expect additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop today, mainly over southern locations
close to the boundary where convergence and instability will
coincide. Severe weather threat will limited in an environment
containing moderate CAPE but low wind shear. High temperatures
are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s.


A broad upper trough will push into the Central CONUS on Thursday
and Friday. Short wave energy rounding the base of the trough will
develop a weak surface low that will ripple along the stalled
boundary located over Kentucky. The low will provide enhanced
lift as it works gradually eastward, and showers and thunderstorms
are likely to form. The best chance for convective activity on
Thursday will be across the southern half of the FA closer to the
boundary. Southeastern locations may see the bulk of the showers
and thunderstorms on Friday when the weak low will be departing to
the east.

Heavy rainfall may result due to the slow progression of the
system in a moist airmass containing from 1.5 to 2+ inches
precipitable water. Storms may not be very well organized due to
generally weak wind shear, and model soundings that are showing a
fairly saturated environment that should limit severe thunderstorm

High temperatures are forecast to slip slightly below normal into
the lower 80s in response to cloud cover and and precip.


Saturday through Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain
in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across
the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to
the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east
the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs


Surface frontal boundary has stalled out e-w parallel to the upper
level flow across northern KY. This front will remain quasi-
stationary before returning as a warm front Thursday.

Abundant low level moisture is present along and just north of
this frontal boundary. A few isold showers will remain possible
overnight but coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the
fcst. Primary concern during the early morning hours will be the
development of fog in this moisture rich environment.

At southern sites of KCVG and KLUK where rain was observed in the
past 24 hours and winds are light expect IFR VSBY/CIG restrictions
in fog. Expect MVFR VSBYs for KILN with the potential for IFR

Expect fog to improve shortly after sunrise Wednesday. The weak
stalled sfc boundary will be the focus for additional diurnally
driven thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. Have a mention of
VCTS at KCVG and KLUK durg the afternoon being closer to the
frontal boundary.

Winds will remain light and variable for all terminals for

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday and possible again Friday
and Saturday.




NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Haines
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