Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 250820
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
420 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday and move
through the region Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Moisture rotating around low pressure in New York State will
work into northeast counties today. With heating this will
result in at least scattered cumulus. Further south and west
there will be fewer, if any, clouds. Highs will be a bit cooler
than yesterday with guidance appearing to have a reasonable
handle on this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure extending across the region will persist
through Wednesday. This will keep a dry air mass in place and
thus little cloud cover. Expect a pretty substantial diurnal
range. Temperatures will drop off into the 50s to lower 60s
tonight but rebound back into the mid 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the long term period.  This will be
short lived however as a cold front begins to approach the region.
Most of the precipitation will hold off Wednesday night, however a
few storms may begin to move into eastern Indiana by Thursday
morning.

Models are in agreement in moving an area of low pressure through
the region on Thursday, however differ on the details in the exact
placement of the low.  Where the low ends up being will help in
deciding where the exact severe weather potential will be for
Thursday.  General consensus is for the low to move near northern
portions of the forecast area.  There is the a potential for severe
weather near and south of the low with damaging winds and large
hail.  Due to the low moving across the region, cannot rule out an
isolated tornado potential as well.  In addition to the severe
threat there will also be the potential for heavy rain, especially
just north of the area of low pressure.

The cold front will move through the region Thursday into Thursday
night.  After this feature moves through expect precipitation
chances to decrease and the severe weather potential will come to an
end.  There will be additional precipitation chances on Friday as an
upper level disturbance works through the region.

Tranquil weather conditions and cooler weather will be in place for
Saturday and Sunday.  Moisture begins to work back into the region
for Monday. This will bring a return of precipitation chances
to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There could be a brief period of visibility restrictions at KLUK
overnight, otherwise VFR will prevail through the TAF period.
Skies will remain clear until after daybreak. Few to scattered
cumulus will develop with the greater coverage in central Ohio.
These will dissipate with loss of heating. Generally northeast
winds at less than 10 kt.

OUTLOOK...MVFR visibilities possible late Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.