Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 311338
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
938 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG
NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN COLD...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IN SOME
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA AT MID MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. APPEARS THAT COOLING IS A BIT DELAYED FROM
THE WIND SHIFT. SO THERE MAY STILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WARMING...ALBEIT LIMITED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY BEFORE READINGS STEADY AND THEN START TO FALL. WHEN
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN EARNEST THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME GUSTY WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN WESTERN COUNTIES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WITH AMOUNTS UNDER 1/4 INCH. IT WILL STAY LIQUID THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SIMILAR WITH CLOSED H5 LOW OVER INDIANA THIS
EVENING DIGGING SOUTH THRU THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES
DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THRU THE EVENING. SOLNS ARE HOLDING ONTO PRECIP LONGER AND WITH
COLD AIR...HAVE TRENDED FCST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. AN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY
ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY.
SNOW WILL HAVE IMPACT ON PLANTS...SO HAVE UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE
WARNING AND EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST TO INCORPORATE THE REGION WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL LKLY FALL TO 32 OR BELOW
OVERNIGHT.

PCPN TO TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP
SATURDAYS HIGHS OVER 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM 40 NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SE.

MID/UPR LEVEL TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT PLACING THE
OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING
CENTERED OVER INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING
EVERYWHERE. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WATCH FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. AFTER A
COLD START TO DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP. READINGS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 7-8 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND THE
REAL WARM UP IS ON MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 14-15 DEG WARMER THAN
SUNDAY DUE TO THE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

FLOW ON MONDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A MORE MUTED BUT CONTINUED
WARM UP WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAPE A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO WEST CENTRAL TX. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY YESTERDAYS EUROPEAN MODEL. AS THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT AND
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR A DRIER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE L/W TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EUROPEAN HAS A SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
EAST AND INDICATES IT AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...IE MUCH EARLIER WITH NO SURFACE LOW AND/OR PRECIP AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE VFR TO START. THAT WILL CHANGE AS AN UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MVFR BY
17Z AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD IN A MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE CEILINGS FALL TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING WILL
CHANGE ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AT DAY AND ILN
WHERE MINOR SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT CVG AND LUK...WHILE LCK AND CMH MAY
EXPERIENCE ALL RAIN IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ089>100.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO






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