Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 022036
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
436 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THEN COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
FORECAST LOWS USE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND COOLER MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP SOUTH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT
COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. THIS UPPER FEATURE COULD HELP CONVECTION LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNALS THAT AN MCS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN
THIS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT FELT THAT IT
WARRANTED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GET TRAPPED
IN WEAK FLOW AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A WEAKNESS
AMONGST BUILDING HEIGHTS. THUS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE
OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES SHOWING ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS FROM DAY TO DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED IN
THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. CU AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MVFR TO IFR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF KLUK/KLCK AND KILN. IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL


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