Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 211238
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
838 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND BRING A THREAT FOR FROST
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS...EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY WILL SEE A
SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND COULD
EVEN SEE IT FILL IN A BIT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE A
LITTLE MORE. PCPN SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT WILL NONE THE LESS
NUDGE UP POPS INTO HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TAPERING
BACK TO ISOLATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CAA...DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A RISE
IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
CWA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WITH THE LOW WILL LIMIT RUNAWAY LOW
TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SKIES COULD CLEAR
MORE AND TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARDS
THE VALUES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FROST. HOWEVER...WIND SHOULD STAY UP
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR...EVEN IF SKIES CLEAR AND
TEMPS DROP.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT DROPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALSO LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR FROST FOR THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS COOL START...FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND A WARMUP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S...IN THE MID 60S NE TO NEAR 70 SW ON SUNDAY AND IN THE
UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE AROUND A DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
ERN TAFS. THIS WILL GIVE THOSE LOCATIONS A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
A SCATTERED SHOWER THIS MORNING. CIGS ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WILL BE
VFR THIS MORNING...BEFORE MVFR CIGS WORK IN. THE ERN TAFS HOWEVER
SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER TONIGHT RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES






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