Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A dry pattern is expected today into Wednesday as high pressure
builds from the northwest. A potent low pressure system tracking
across the Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers and
maybe a thunderstorm Wednesday night into Thursday.


Cold front just entering the nrn counties attm will drop south
to near the Ohio River by 12Z. Latest satellite loop is showing
some low clouds trying to form along the front. So expect some
clouds to affect the region early this morning, especially the
eastern counties.

After 12Z, additional clouds are forecast to swing down across
the area as caa aloft works into the region. The better advection
will be across Central Ohio so that is where the better cloud
cover is expected. By afternoon as drier air begins to work in,
clouds will begin to dissipate.

Highs today will range from the upper 50s across West Central and
Central Ohio to the lower to mid 60s in nrn KY.


High pressure will settle down over the region tonight in nw flow
aloft. Skies should be mostly clear and winds will be light. A few
cirrus might try to filter in towards sunrise in the w. The good
radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to fall
in the upper 30s for much over the region. Some of the normal cold
spots could drop down into the mid 30s. Nrn KY counties could
stay in in the lower 40s. Expect some frost development tonight.
Will hold off on any advisory as it should be patchy except for
the colder locations.

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday as isentropic lift brings
high clouds into the region. Highs Tuesday will be limited by the
cool start and by the increasing cloud cover, so kept them in the
mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday night will remain dry as H5 ridge reaches the Ohio Valley.
Mid and high clouds will continue to thicken as the isentropic
lift increases.

Fast moving H5 s/w will swing out of the plains and into the
lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. The consensus of the models is for
the region to stay dry Wednesday, so delayed the pcpn chances
until Wednesday Night. Highs on Wednesday will see a large range
across the region. Extreme sw portions of nrn KY could make the
upper 60s, with srn Oh and se IN making the mid 60s. Meanwhile
across West Central Ohio and Central Ohio temperatures will stay
in the upper 50s.

Low pressure system and cdfnt push through the region Wednesday
night. Went with likely pops across the n, but kept chance pops
for the extreme srn counties. Instability is marginal across the
area with this system. Did add slight chance of thunder to the nw
counties for the first few hours of Wednesday night.


Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs from
the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south.

Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions.  Highs to range from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south.

Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns
showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any
precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to
range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will
spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and
associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go
with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the
system is slower then pops will be required.


The cold front and associated wind shift have moved through the
TAF sites this morning. MVFR post-frontal stratocu have developed
across central and west-central Ohio that will move south through
the terminals through 18z. Brief MVFR CIGs are possible area-wide through
15z before lifting to a FEW/SCT VFR clouds by this afternoon. Any
lingering clouds are expected to dissipate this evening, with SKC
anticipated past 00z Tuesday for all sites as high pressure
settles into the area.

Winds will be out of the north-northwest through the day at about
10 kts. As high pressure moves in this evening and the gradient
relaxes, light winds are expected past 00z Tuesday. Mid/high
level clouds will be on the increase from the west towards the end
of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.




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