Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 281340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

High pressure will build over the mid section of the country as a
cold front moves from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today. An
upper level trough of low pressure will pass east through the
Great Lakes region later today and tonight. High pressure with a
dry and cool airmass will remain in control until the next weak
cold front crosses on Friday.


A weak cold front has pushed south through CWA this morning. Calm
conditions are found behind the front with mostly clear skies and
northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. The front will continue moving
southeast and over the Appalachians during the late morning and
afternoon. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
trough over the Great Lakes and this will swing through during the
afternoon. With steepening lapse rates and influence from the
trough, expect some cu development this afternoon particularly
over central/east-central Ohio. This is also where there may be
just enough moisture to squeeze out isolated sprinkles or showers
this afternoon. Confidence is low in their occurrence and thus
only have 20 pops across this area. Rest of the CWA should remain
dry and partly-mostly sunny with maxima ranging from the upper 70s
across the Miami Valley to mid 80s into northern Kentucky.


This evening into Wednesday morning the upper level trough axis
will start to push east of the area with surface high pressure
just off to the west. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the
work week as 850 mb temperatures continue to fall towards 10
degrees C. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses also fall to around 1390 m
(NAM having slightly higher thicknesses while the GFS has slightly
lower values). To put this in perspective, 1000/500 mb
thicknesses on the GFS are forecasted to be 1 to 2 sigma below
normal for this time of year while 1000/850 mb thicknesses are
forecasted to be 2 to 3 sigma below normal for this time of year
at times Wednesday. These lower thicknesses Wednesday will
translate to high temperatures only in the upper 70s.

Thursday morning, surface high pressure will move overhead
allowing for winds to go calm and temperatures to fall into the
mid 50s (almost 10 degrees below climo for this time of year).
During the afternoon Thursday another upper level low will dive
south into Ontario allowing heights and thicknesses to recover
across the area. Still though am expecting high temperatures only
in the lower 80s and below climatology. Thursday night clouds will
return to the forecast area as a cold front moves into the


For the second straight day the extended models are showing the
cdfnt pushing into the region on Friday. This has increased the
confidence of scattered showers and thunderstorms despite the
difference in the models QPF placement. Upped pops about 10
percent for the northern half of the fa on Friday afternoon into
Friday evening.

Models agree in dropping the front to near the Ohio River by 12Z
Saturday. Convection should pop across srn sections on Saturday
along the front. The ECMWF is a little slower in dropping the front
south Saturday night than the GFS. Leaned towards the quicker GFS.

By Sunday another high will bring drier conditions for Sunday and
Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in the lower
80s with mid 80s expected for Monday afternoon. Lows will typically
be in the lower to mid 60s through the period.


Frontal boundary has pushed south of the area. CAA pushing in with
dryer air. Expect some cu development by late morning with an
isolated aftn shower possible but too low chance to mention in TAF
fcst. VFR conditions through fcst period. Northwest to north winds
picking up this morning and a bit gusty.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday.




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