Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 180200
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1000 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS. CIRRUS HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
IT STILL LOOKS TO BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HAVE
ONLY UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CENTER OF HIGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS
SPREADING INTO THE TRI-STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY MAY WORK IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS. SO AS ACTIVITY DECREASES IN COVERAGE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANCE STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MOS AVERAGE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY COULD BE TRICKY WITH WARMING POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING IN CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. AND THEN
THE SOUTHWEST COULD RALLY LATE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. STAYED ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THIS FEATURE.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING.  COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE FA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.  DISTURBANCES WILL WORK AROUND THIS
LOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FA
HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ENTIRE FA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETS IN. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG WHILE THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING MUCH. TOOK A LOOK AT THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER
30S AND DON`T EXPECT LOWS TO GET ANYWHERE CLOSE TO THAT TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT NO FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY DEW. THE CROSSOVER
TEMP AT CVG AND LUK IS IN THE UPPER 40S THOUGH. LOWS WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE UPPER 40S. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE LEFT THE TEMPO IN FOR
LUK. LOOKING AT THE VERTICAL CHANGE OF HUMIDITY IT SUPPORTS
LITTLE TO NO FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE GFS WHILE BEING NEUTRAL ON THE
NAM. OVERALL AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DRIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CLOUDS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES





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