Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171921 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 321 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will keep dry air and mainly clear skies over the region through the week. Temperatures will gradually warm as the high moves slowly east.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure centered over West Virginia will keep dry air and subsidence over the ILN area tonight. Clear skies may only be interrupted by a few cirrus clouds. Being in a rather tight pressure gradient evident on the northwest side of the high, winds will stay southwest at 5 to 10 knots through early evening before subsiding to calm by sunset. Those calm conditions will allow fog to form in river valleys. Low temperatures in the mid 40s city down to upper 30s rural will result in patchy frost in outlying areas that is already mentioned in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will be pushed eastward a bit by some modest mid level short wave energy. Little change in weather conditions will be observed through Wednesday night in the very dry airmass remaining in place, except for a minor increase in cloud cover ahead of the short wave. Temperatures will start a gradual warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in the continuation of dry conditions. Warming trend will continue through the rest of the week, although highs will plateau in the lower to mid 70s. Upper ridge axis will translate east over the weekend as a short wave tracks west to east across the continent. In the 12Z guidance, the ECMWF continues to have more amplitude with this system which results in a slightly slower progression compared to the GFS/Canadian. Forecast leans towards the latter although have lingered PoPs a bit longer due to the timing uncertainty. A cold front will accompany the short wave, and in its wake, temperatures will drop with readings falling to below normal by the end of the period. A northern stream short wave dropping into a developing long wave trough on Tuesday may bring some additional showers to the area.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect mainly VFR to persist under a large dome of high pressure and dry air. LUK will be the exception where FG will form under ideal radiational cooling and will likely reduce visibility to VLIFR 08z-12z. Otherwise look for mainly clear skies with cloud cover consisting of cirrus wafting in on a westerly flow aloft. With the pressure gradient being tightened by weak mid level short waves, surface winds will be around 10 knots from the southwest during the afternoon, with calm conditions after dark. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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