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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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000
FXUS61 KILN 171921
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will keep dry air and mainly clear skies over the
region through the week. Temperatures will gradually warm as
the high moves slowly east.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered over West Virginia will keep dry air and
subsidence over the ILN area tonight. Clear skies may only be
interrupted by a few cirrus clouds. Being in a rather tight
pressure gradient evident on the northwest side of the high,
winds will stay southwest at 5 to 10 knots through early
evening before subsiding to calm by sunset. Those calm
conditions will allow fog to form in river valleys. Low
temperatures in the mid 40s city down to upper 30s rural will
result in patchy frost in outlying areas that is already
mentioned in the HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will be pushed eastward a bit by some modest mid
level short wave energy. Little change in weather conditions
will be observed through Wednesday night in the very dry
airmass remaining in place, except for a minor increase in cloud
cover ahead of the short wave.

Temperatures will start a gradual warming trend, with highs
reaching the upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in the
continuation of dry conditions. Warming trend will continue through
the rest of the week, although highs will plateau in the lower to
mid 70s.

Upper ridge axis will translate east over the weekend as a short
wave tracks west to east across the continent. In the 12Z guidance,
the ECMWF continues to have more amplitude with this system which
results in a slightly slower progression compared to the
GFS/Canadian. Forecast leans towards the latter although have
lingered PoPs a bit longer due to the timing uncertainty.

A cold front will accompany the short wave, and in its wake,
temperatures will drop with readings falling to below normal by the
end of the period. A northern stream short wave dropping into a
developing long wave trough on Tuesday may bring some additional
showers to the area.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect mainly VFR to persist under a large dome of high
pressure and dry air. LUK will be the exception where FG will
form under ideal radiational cooling and will likely reduce
visibility to VLIFR 08z-12z. Otherwise look for mainly clear
skies with cloud cover consisting of cirrus wafting in on a
westerly flow aloft. With the pressure gradient being tightened
by weak mid level short waves, surface winds will be around 10
knots from the southwest during the afternoon, with calm
conditions after dark.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio
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