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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 061811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
111 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BEFORE COMING
TO AN END TONIGHT. ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...BUT MAY STILL HAMPER TRAVEL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. BROAD SWRLY FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMGRY SHOWING IMPULSE LIFTING
NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURG LATE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. OUR AREA IS ALSO IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH PROVIDES FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TSECS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF
FGEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.

SEEING LEADING EDGE OF BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO
SE INDIANA/SW OHIO. THIS BAND EXTENDS BACK INTO SE MISSOURI. EXPECT
TO SEE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FRONTOGENESIS/ENHANCED LIFT.

THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN. EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIP
EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 2 PM UNTIL 8 PM.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW WEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR FROM
CVG TO NEAR XENIA TO CMH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NW TO THE SE. HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS IN THE EAST...WHERE LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HOCKING COUNTY.
ACRS THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES OF ADAMS...PIKE AND SCIOTO HAVE
BUMPED UP SNOW INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE AND CONTINUED ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LIFT PUSHES E. A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS E FOR SATURDAY. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
GO CLEAR OUT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STARTING A LITTLE
LATER. BACKED OFF THE PCPN UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. INDICATIONS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE A LITTLE COLDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN LATER.
THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES.


TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...IN THE MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN TO 15-20.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
APPEARS DRY BUT FRIGID. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY AN EXPECTED SNOWPACK (WITH MIN TEMP
BULLSEYES WELL INTO NEGATIVE NUMBERS ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS).
HOWEVER...THE TREND IS CLEAR...AND BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GET (BARELY) ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE ILN CWA
EARLY ON MONDAY...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT...EVEN FOR MAXES. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE
DRAWN IN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
ACCOMPANY AN IMPULSE LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUED AT MANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. KDAY WAS FIRST TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW EARLIER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS AS BETTER LIFT APPROACHES REGION. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE WIDESPREAD SNOW COMES TO
AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. LOW CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE SNOW
TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR SAT MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 07/15Z

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH EXCEPTION OF DAYTON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...PARKER