Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KILN 230015 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 715 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S TO N OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS N THOUGH KY...CLOUDS TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OH VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LLVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AS WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY/UPR TN VALLEYS LIFTS NE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ON THE NW SIDE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THEN NE STATES THROUGH EARLY TUES. THE MOISTURE PULLED INTO FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO WRAP AROUND FROM THIS LARGER FEATURE. WHILE ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AVAILABLE...MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITED OVER FCST AREA FOR MON. HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S/E OF INTERSTATE 71...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE BOTH SCATTERED AND LIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK AS A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW...PER BOTH GFS/ECMWF...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING QUICKEST...ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE AND THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. HAVE HEDGED WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...BRINGING IN LOW CHANCES AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT BY 18Z TUE...BUT GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME 06-12Z WED. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LEANING TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WITH WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC POSITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY THEREAFTER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DIGGING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPR LVL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...IT WILL UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL AS WELL AS ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...KEEPING MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST ECMWF INDICATES THAT PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MORE IN THE OFFING. SO AS TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW...HAVE USED THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP FROM THE NW TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --H5 S/W WILL LIFT FM THE TN VLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY ON MONDAY. CLD LEVELS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY VFR THRU 12Z. ELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES AS SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE NE. H8 AND H9 MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SE AFT 12Z AS THERMAL TROUGH/WRMFNT LIFTS THRU. EXPECT THERE TO BE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS AFT 14Z. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT FOR SOME SCT SHRA. DONT THINK VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED ALL THAT MUCH IN THE SHRA SO JUST CARRIED VCSH. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES
