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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 071759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL PROVIDE SUNNY SKIES TODAY. SOME
SCT HIGH CLOUDS MIGHT TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND WAA ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER MIAMI VALLEY WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN
THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SO THINK ANY PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. FORCING IS NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY...SAGGING DOWN ACROSS OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF PCPN STARTS EARLY ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY MORNING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HOWEVER...THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN.
AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL
BEGIN TO MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW AS IT TAPERS OFF FROM THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
CLOUDS AND/OR PCPN MOVE IN THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA WITH THE FRONT. WILL RANGE HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO MID
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY-WNW FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WILL BE ALTERNATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE...WITH THE LOW TRACKS MAINLY
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INFLUENCE THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH A FRONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHED TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE ILN CWA. THE OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...AS
THE RELATIVELY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM IS FORCED TO INTERACT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF TEXAS. WHETHER OR NOT THESE TWO
SYSTEMS INTERACT WILL AFFECT WHAT HAPPENS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GOING TO NEED TO INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT A SURFACE FRONT
WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER CONDITION HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT THIS AFTN. CI WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE TAFS AFT 00Z AS A CDFNT WORKS SE THRU THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. LATEST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF AND LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BROUGHT BKN CI IN AFT
06Z AND HELD OFF ON THE MENTION OF AC UNTIL 10Z AT KDAY.

SAW SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOP AFT 12Z AT KCVG AND KLUK. SINCE IT LOOKS
LIKE KCMH/KLCK WILL SAT SCT THE LONGEST...FEEL THEY MIGHT SEE SOME
MVFR FOG...SO HAVE A TEMPO THERE BETWEEN 11-13Z.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN AHEAD OF THE FNT AFT 12Z SATURDAY.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES