Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281340 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 940 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the mid section of the country as a cold front moves from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today. An upper level trough of low pressure will pass east through the Great Lakes region later today and tonight. High pressure with a dry and cool airmass will remain in control until the next weak cold front crosses on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak cold front has pushed south through CWA this morning. Calm conditions are found behind the front with mostly clear skies and northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. The front will continue moving southeast and over the Appalachians during the late morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and this will swing through during the afternoon. With steepening lapse rates and influence from the trough, expect some cu development this afternoon particularly over central/east-central Ohio. This is also where there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out isolated sprinkles or showers this afternoon. Confidence is low in their occurrence and thus only have 20 pops across this area. Rest of the CWA should remain dry and partly-mostly sunny with maxima ranging from the upper 70s across the Miami Valley to mid 80s into northern Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... This evening into Wednesday morning the upper level trough axis will start to push east of the area with surface high pressure just off to the west. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of the work week as 850 mb temperatures continue to fall towards 10 degrees C. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses also fall to around 1390 m (NAM having slightly higher thicknesses while the GFS has slightly lower values). To put this in perspective, 1000/500 mb thicknesses on the GFS are forecasted to be 1 to 2 sigma below normal for this time of year while 1000/850 mb thicknesses are forecasted to be 2 to 3 sigma below normal for this time of year at times Wednesday. These lower thicknesses Wednesday will translate to high temperatures only in the upper 70s. Thursday morning, surface high pressure will move overhead allowing for winds to go calm and temperatures to fall into the mid 50s (almost 10 degrees below climo for this time of year). During the afternoon Thursday another upper level low will dive south into Ontario allowing heights and thicknesses to recover across the area. Still though am expecting high temperatures only in the lower 80s and below climatology. Thursday night clouds will return to the forecast area as a cold front moves into the midwest. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... For the second straight day the extended models are showing the cdfnt pushing into the region on Friday. This has increased the confidence of scattered showers and thunderstorms despite the difference in the models QPF placement. Upped pops about 10 percent for the northern half of the fa on Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Models agree in dropping the front to near the Ohio River by 12Z Saturday. Convection should pop across srn sections on Saturday along the front. The ECMWF is a little slower in dropping the front south Saturday night than the GFS. Leaned towards the quicker GFS. By Sunday another high will bring drier conditions for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in the lower 80s with mid 80s expected for Monday afternoon. Lows will typically be in the lower to mid 60s through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Frontal boundary has pushed south of the area. CAA pushing in with dryer air. Expect some cu development by late morning with an isolated aftn shower possible but too low chance to mention in TAF fcst. VFR conditions through fcst period. Northwest to north winds picking up this morning and a bit gusty. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Padgett

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