Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1258 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. MORE SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST 00Z NAM-WRF...HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND PIVOT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMBEDDED S/WV AND LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST PLUME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH POPS RAPIDLY DECREASING AS ONE GOES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHILE IT REMAINS MILD ELSEWHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED SOUTHEAST AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE WIND PICKS UP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON AVERAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL INVOLVE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE PROBABLE. IF CONDITIONS ARE AS SUGGESTED BY THE WINDIER MAV GUIDANCE...THEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ILN/S FA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SE. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL. PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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