Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010252 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1052 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ON STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALL WEEKEND...WITH SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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RAIN SHOWERS HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO...AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPED UP THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES AND QUICKER CHANGEOVER MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. INCREASED WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KEPT FREEZE HEADLINES IN PLACE AS IS. ADDED LIGHT SNOW MENTION TO THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS QUICKLY OFF TO EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING...SOME PCPN WILL LINGER IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COLD NLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT A VERY COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BUILDING SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM W TO E. WITH THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN SE INDIANA WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. IN THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 30. CONTINUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. DESPITE SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MONDAY WILL START OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERMITTING THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL REINFORCE THIS FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELONGATED AXIS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SPAWNING IT STRENGTHENS AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON BAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS BACK...STRONG ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT A 5 DEG JUMP IN HIGHS ON THIS DAY. WED AND THURS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND THEN SEE A DROP AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. USHERS IN COOLER AIR. GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH WITH THE GFS FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER PUSHING IN COOLER AIR...AND THE EURO ACTUALLY OVER THE REGION PERMITTING A WARMUP WITH MORE WESTERLY WINDS. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THOSE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS TRANSITION WILL TAKE LONGER AT KCMH AND KLCK AND THEREFORE KEPT THEM AS RAIN LONGER. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR REACHES THOSE LOCATIONS ONLY HAVE A VCSH IN THE TAFS. LINGERED THE VCSH LONGER AT KCMH AND KLCK WITH FAVORABLE WINDS OFF THE LAKE. BROUGHT DOWN VSBYS SLIGHTLY WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS WILL START OUT VFR OR MVFR ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER EXPECT CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING AND THEN EXPECT WIND GUSTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...NOVAK

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