Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050804 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 404 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE NEAR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THIS FRONT IS PERHAPS BEST IDENTIFIED FROM SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AS DRIER AIR IS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AGAIN. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NEARLY-STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY FOR A DAY OR SO...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 1000MB-500MB SATURATION AND QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH FORCING MECHANISMS AND AN OVERALL SETUP THAT LOOK A LITTLE UNUSUAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THOSE ARE THE BIG-PICTURE ITEMS...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR (EARLY AUGUST PROVING NOT TO BE IMMUNE)...THE TRACK AND STRENGTH DETAILS HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO CHANGE ON AN ALMOST RUN-TO-RUN BASIS. 00Z NCEP GUIDANCE MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC MAINTAINED STRONGER SURFACE LOWS AND GREATER LATITUDE WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS DICHOTOMY OF SOLUTIONS ARE TWO-FOLD. FOR ONE...THERE IS MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN POPS AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. FOR TWO...THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WRITE OFF THE NEED FOR HIGH-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE ILN CWA. WITH DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...AND LITTLE SENSE THAT THE WEATHER SITUATION WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...THE DECISION TO CONTINUE WITHOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT NO THREAT FOR FLOODING EXISTS...AND AS SUCH AN HWO MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AN INCH OR TWO OVER 12-18 HOURS (AS FORECAST BY THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY IN DIFFERENT PLACES) WILL BE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND TRAINING ECHOES MAY BE WHAT LEADS TO A FEW LOCALIZED ISSUES IN THE SOUTHERN ILN COUNTIES. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...POOR SHEAR...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LIMITED. WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING AWAY ON THURSDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER...WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...A SETUP THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN ON EACH DAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HUMID AIRMASS. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS WILL START TO REBOUND FRIDAY...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY THIN AND DRIFT ESE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AT KLUK BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THE REST OF THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE HOWEVER AND SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY...HAVE FORECASTED A PERIOD OF SHALLOW FOG THERE LEADING TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS AND DIURNAL CU POSSIBLE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS MIDDAY BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE NE BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO KENTUCKY LATE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AFFECTING KCVG/KLUK BY THE END OF THEIR TAF PERIODS. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...KURZ

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