Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301042 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 642 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT BAND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE SW COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MEASURE PCPN BEFORE IT DOES. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FA AFTER SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THIS PCPN A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THE AREA TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY AS THE WRMFNT DOESNT REACH THE SRN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ACT TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY. BACKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIAMI VALLEY...TO THE MID 60S IN NORTHERN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED INSTABILITY. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BE DECREASING AS THE FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5 LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EASTERLY FLOW HAS PUSHED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOUDS BACK INTO CMH/LCK AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE BY MID MORNING WHILE APRROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST RETURNS MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST SHOULD BECOME MVFR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VSBYS AND CIGS LOWERING. SOME IFR MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING AND DRYING AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES EAST. WILL BE A LULL IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PERSISTING. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR NOW BUT SCATTERED THUNDER COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING NEAR OHIO RIVER IN BETTER INSTABILITY. OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM... AVIATION...PADGETT

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