Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221845 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley will bring organized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, then drier and unseasonably cool air filters into the area for the rest of the workweek. The next appreciable chance for rain after today looks to be early next workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Several clusters of strong to severe storms continue to track generally east through the southeastern half of the FA this afternoon. With this, the axis of instby is also rapidly shifting eastward and expect that there will not be much in the way of additional (re)development further upstream (i.e. N/W of the I-71 corridor). Even if a few cells are able to initiate along the actual front itself, environment should be worked over enough to limit svr threat past late-afternoon. With this in mind, continued to shift highest PoPs earlier and earlier, with most of the area expected to be dry after 22z (with perhaps a few lingering light rain showers in the lower Scioto Valley). Nevertheless, CAMs continue to play catch up with this rapidly evolving situation, so adjusted PoPs based on radar trends instead of a particular model solution. The main threat between now and 21z should be locally damaging winds and large hail, with the svr threat diminishing past 21z. Although individual storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain, the consistent progression of the storms should limit widespread flooding issues. If cells are able to train, or move over the same areas, the local flooding risk may be increased, but think this would be the exception rather than the rule. With extensive cloud cover and on-and-off rain showers, think that the northwest FA has already peaked with their high temperatures thus far today. With this, there will end up being a fairly noticeable gradient of high temperatures by day/s end, ranging from near 90 degrees in the lower Scioto Valley to around 80 degrees across parts of west-central Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A fairly potent cold front will progress through the area early in the short term period, bringing an end to the seasonably warm and humid conditions that had settled in the local area. With the passage of the front will come a wind shift from WSW to NW, but do not expect much in the way of gustiness with the FROPA. As a CAA scheme becomes established in the FA overnight and into the day on Wednesday, dewpoints will lower and skies should clear out from NW to SE early tonight. With the increasingly clear skies and northwest flow, expect lows to range from the mid 50s in the NW to the lower 60s in the SE. By Wednesday afternoon, expect a fairly healthy diurnally-driven Cu field to develop, especially as heights aloft continue to fall. Some of the global models have been indicating a few very spotty light rain showers in the northern quarter of the FA during peak heating on Wednesday afternoon, so did add slight chance PoPs for a few hours Wednesday afternoon to account for this potential. Cu field and any chance for a spotty light rain shower will diminish towards sunset Wednesday, with a quiet Wednesday night period expected as surface high pressure begins to nudge into the western Ohio Valley. Lows on Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 50s area-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak upper level disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover and an isolated shower potential to central Ohio on Thursday. CAA will also lead to an extensive cu field. Dry conditions will return by Thursday evening and then expect dry conditions through the weekend. High temperatures through the weekend will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to the middle 50s. A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday with a weak disturbance. This system continues to slow down and be weaker than previous runs. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Convective activity starting to come together for the afternoon hours with main time frame to impact terminals within the first hour or so of the valid TAF period before activity slides east of the local terminal corridor. Did include TEMPO VSBY and CIG restrictions, especially for eastern terminals of KCMH and KLCK where activity will be slowest to clear. Nevertheless, main convective lines will be east of terminals by 21z or so, with just some lingering -SHRA for an hour or two past that. By this evening, VFR conditions are expected area- wide with a veering of winds from WSW to NW past 03z. Light winds will prevail overnight but should stay up enough to prevent widespread BR. This being said, did add a TEMPO MVFR VSBY restriction at KLUK around sunrise Wednesday, despite unfavorable wind direction. Past 12z Wednesday, some diurnally driven VFR Cu will likely develop as CAA scheme becomes established in the area. Cannot completely rule out an isolated -SHRA for northern terminals towards very end of period, but isolated nature of coverage and lack of confidence precluded inclusion for right now. OUTLOOK...No significant weather. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC

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