Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182045 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 345 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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UPR LVL S/WV WILL PASS EAST ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORCING IS WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING A FEW FLURRIES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INTERSECT WEAK FORCING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS THE RAP MODEL SHOWS REGION STAYING PRETTY MUCH OVERCAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS FEATURE...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE AFFECTS OF AN UPR LVL S/WV TO OUR SOUTH WHILE SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE A WEAK UPR LVL S/WV PASSES ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY...RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN A CONCENTRATED BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER. ENERGY WILL TRANSFER TO A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A BRISK AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF DECREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERN LOCATIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 40 ON SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT EARLY HIGHS NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL 30S UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...AR

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