Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180228 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 928 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Plains will build into the Tennessee Valley this evening. Southwest flow around this high will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week. The chance of precipitation will return to the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure is currently located over Arkansas and is forecast to slowly push east overnight. As this happens, skies will continue to be mainly clear and temperatures have quickly fallen into the single digits. The main question here is how much will temperatures and wind chills continue to fall with the winds remaining up. Wind chills will be in zero to 10 below zero range this evening into Thursday morning. Have issued an expanded SPS covering all counties to account for this. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... During the day Thursday surface high pressure will slowly pull east with the pressure gradient quickly increasing across the area. Low level thermal profiles will quickly recover Thursday with 850 mb temperatures rising from 15 degrees C below zero to 2 degrees C above zero by the afternoon. Have gone ahead and raised high temperatures for Thursday given the strong WAA and mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A southerly low level flow will develop on the backside of retreating surface high pressure by the end of the week. This high will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures by the end of the week will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs on Friday to range from the middle 30s north to around 40 south. In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will likely develop Saturday. Temperatures expected to continue to warm with highs Saturday from around 40 north to the upper 40s south. Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of rain shifts north thru ILN/s FA. Therefore, shift pops north and then limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between the mid 40s north to the lower 50s degrees. Models solutions have trended slower with system and associated associated surface cold front expected to sweep east through ILN/s FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore, will ramp rain pops up late in the day into Monday night. On the warm side of the system, above normal temperatures to continue with highs from the upper 40s northwest to the lower/middle 50s southeast. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to near 40 southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build in providing dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR has arrived and will likely prevail through the TAF period under high pressure and a dry airmass. Sky cover will consist of cirrus and a few cumulus. Winds from the southwest will increase in speed Thursday in response to a short wave trough over the Great Lakes, with gusts close to 20 knots possible at DAY and ILN. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio/Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.