Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 282100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Surface high pressure over the region will build east to the Mid
Atlantic by Saturday morning. A southerly flow will develop on the
back side of this retreating high offering a warming trend. A cold
front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing with it a
chance of showers. Slightly cooler air will briefly settle in
behind the front before another warm up for midweek.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure over the region will push off to the east,
becoming centered over the Mid Atlantic by Saturday morning. At the
same time a mid level ridge will build into the region. This will
allow high level clouds to drift in from the northwest. Lows will be
milder tonight due to the clouds and southerly winds that stay up at
speeds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows are expected to run 8 to 10 degrees
above normal, ranging from the upper 40s east to the lower/middle
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Models solutions in general agreement with broad mid level
ridge extending north into the Ohio Valley Saturday with s/w
passing thru the Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday, allowing a
surface cold front to drop south through the region. This setup will
bring an increase in the low level srly flow Saturday. In this WAA
pattern temperatures will warm up around 15 degrees above normal
with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 70s north to near 80
The cold front will slowly sag south into the southern Great Lakes
by Sunday morning and then south through ILN/s FA Sunday. Have
allowed for an increase in clouds and only a slight chance of a
shower far north toward sunrise Sunday. Mild lows expected in the
mid and upper 50s Saturday night.
As the front pushes into the area low level forcing and upper level
support will be maximized across the northern and central counties
during the day Sunday. Have high chance pops here mainly during the
afternoon. NAM appears overdone with instby and favor the marginal
instability that the GFS is showing. Given this marginal instby will
only mention slight chance of thunder.
High temperatures will show a good range from the lower 60s far nw
to the upper 60s far south.
The threat for precipitation will end quickly early Sunday evening.
Lows to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s far south.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will push to the east on Monday and southerly flow
will develop. This will allow for several days of well above normal
temperatures. Wind gusts will pick up for Tuesday with some gusts
around 20 to 30 mph. Models have come into good agreement on
keeping a dry forecast on Wednesday and therefore kept Wednesday dry.
A cold front will move through on Thursday and bring rain showers to
the region and slightly cooler weather. Dry conditions are expected
to return by Friday.
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slide off to the east tonight as a cold
front sags slowly southeast into the southern Great Lakes through
the day on Saturday. With a dry airmass in place, expect mainly
just cirrus to affect the TAFS through the period. A strengthening
low level jet later tonight will lead to some marginal LLWS
criteria late tonight into early Saturday morning. After that, as
the surface pressure gradient increases from the northwest,
expect southwest winds to increase with gusts into the 20-25 knot
range toward the end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Sunday and Monday.