Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292349 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 749 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will push north across the region tonight into Thursday. Low pressure and its associated cold front will then move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday night. The low will move off slowly to the east on Friday, with high pressure following behind for the weekend. Warm temperatures on Thursday will give way to cooler readings over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Lower stratus has mixed out of the southeastern CWA this afternoon and a thin cirrus will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley this evening. Over northwestern portions of the CWA, this may primarily be a more altostratus deck around 10kft which will help insulate the region and limit nighttime dropoffs. A warm front will approach the region from the southwest tonight. Previous forecast had the thought that there could be enough moist ascent for a few showers to develop ahead of the warm frontal boundary. Models were stingy on the precip chances tonight and early tomorrow and I dropped the chances by a bit but did not entirely remove them. Overnight lows will range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Vigorous upper level low will rotate northeast from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The warm front is forecast to push through the remainder of the northern zones during the morning/early afternoon. Again, there could be a few showers with this front. For the afternoon hours, much of the area will be warm sector. Given an increased pressure gradient and diurnal mixing, south winds may be gusty in the 25 mph to 35 mph range. It should be warm with highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the mid/upper 70s southeast where clouds may have some breaks. It is unclear based on various convection allowing models whether some weakening showers/storms over Indiana will hold together an affect western zones during the afternoon hours. Thus, only chance PoPs have been employed region wide. The threat of severe weather appears low with this possible batch for the afternoon. The threat for severe storms will ramp up for the first part of of Thursday night, especially west, as low pressure and a cold front move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As is typically the case, appears that showers and thunderstorms will get going to our west during the afternoon hours, generally in the vicinity of a prefrontal convergent trough. Various convection allowing models push a congealed, likely weakening QLCS moving into our western zones around 03Z, or 11 pm EDT, then push it east through the forecast area overnight. Although the low level jet will increase during the evening/overnight, instability wanes and becomes weaker, especially east. So, if severe weather were to occur, the primary threat would be damaging winds. Am not thrilled about the potential for large hail given decreasing instability. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out given unidirectional speed shear, but if they did occur, they would be of the "spin up" transient short-lived type and not supercellular. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Period should begin with line of convection exiting the eastern portions of the fa. An H5 low will then swing up the Ohio Valley in its wake. This should add enuf lift for some scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder for Friday. Highs on Friday will be held down in the upper 50s to lower 60s by the clouds and pcpn. The upper low will slowly exit to the east Friday night, and high pressure at the surface will build in for Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be near seasonable values, in the 50s. Models begin to show their differences by late Sunday as another system ejects out of Texas. The ECMWF is slower in the return pcpn versus the GFS/CMCnh. Ran a compromise on the forecast with a lean towards the wetter models. Highs Sunday will range from the mid 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south. The system kicks out through the TN valley early next week. The better pcpn is forecast south of the region, but the fa should still see some pcpn. Highs will be 60s each day. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Cirro and altostratus clouds will be on the increase overnight as warm and moist air trails a warm front that will lift northeast through the region overnight. Some of the clouds will form a lower deck around 5-7kft late overnight and into much of tomorrow. There may be enough mixing over the western and southern TAF sites that this lower deck could erode with mixing. Expect slightly less mixing in central Ohio so CMH and LCK will likely keep a bkn-ovc deck through much of the day. Cannot rule out a VFR sprinkle in central ohio early this morning as the warm front lifts through the area. Kept the thinking of not entertaining VCSH due to the expected scarcity of shower coverage. A vigorous upper level low will rotate northeast from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi River Valley tomorrow. By afternoon, it remains unclear how much shower or thunderstorm activity will encroach western TAF sites given a continued weakening trend as the precipitation propagates from its original source region. Continue to keep the TAFs dry at this time. Winds will become gusty from the south given a tightening pressure gradient and some momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft. Gusts should be in the 25 knot to 30 knot range during peak heating. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Thursday night as showers/storms develop ahead of a cold front, pushing east through the area overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Thursday into Friday evening. Thunderstorms likely Thursday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Franks

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