Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282100 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the region will build east to the Mid Atlantic by Saturday morning. A southerly flow will develop on the back side of this retreating high offering a warming trend. A cold front will push through the area on Sunday, bringing with it a chance of showers. Slightly cooler air will briefly settle in behind the front before another warm up for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure over the region will push off to the east, becoming centered over the Mid Atlantic by Saturday morning. At the same time a mid level ridge will build into the region. This will allow high level clouds to drift in from the northwest. Lows will be milder tonight due to the clouds and southerly winds that stay up at speeds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows are expected to run 8 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the upper 40s east to the lower/middle 50s west. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models solutions in general agreement with broad mid level ridge extending north into the Ohio Valley Saturday with s/w passing thru the Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday, allowing a surface cold front to drop south through the region. This setup will bring an increase in the low level srly flow Saturday. In this WAA pattern temperatures will warm up around 15 degrees above normal with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 70s north to near 80 south. The cold front will slowly sag south into the southern Great Lakes by Sunday morning and then south through ILN/s FA Sunday. Have allowed for an increase in clouds and only a slight chance of a shower far north toward sunrise Sunday. Mild lows expected in the mid and upper 50s Saturday night. As the front pushes into the area low level forcing and upper level support will be maximized across the northern and central counties during the day Sunday. Have high chance pops here mainly during the afternoon. NAM appears overdone with instby and favor the marginal instability that the GFS is showing. Given this marginal instby will only mention slight chance of thunder. High temperatures will show a good range from the lower 60s far nw to the upper 60s far south. The threat for precipitation will end quickly early Sunday evening. Lows to range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s far south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will push to the east on Monday and southerly flow will develop. This will allow for several days of well above normal temperatures. Wind gusts will pick up for Tuesday with some gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Models have come into good agreement on keeping a dry forecast on Wednesday and therefore kept Wednesday dry. A cold front will move through on Thursday and bring rain showers to the region and slightly cooler weather. Dry conditions are expected to return by Friday. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will slide off to the east tonight as a cold front sags slowly southeast into the southern Great Lakes through the day on Saturday. With a dry airmass in place, expect mainly just cirrus to affect the TAFS through the period. A strengthening low level jet later tonight will lead to some marginal LLWS criteria late tonight into early Saturday morning. After that, as the surface pressure gradient increases from the northwest, expect southwest winds to increase with gusts into the 20-25 knot range toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Sunday and Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.