Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 300533
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
133 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
Surface high pressure will sit over the region tonight, then
exit northeast on Thursday as a weak upper trough swings into the
area. A cold front will sweep across the region on Friday, bringing
a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build
back into the region Friday night into Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
A weak upper level shortwave continues to move away from the area
as surface high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley. Mostly
clear skies will prevail during the overnight hours, with a few
cirrus streaming by from west to east across the FA. Dew points
will hover in the low to mid 50s tonight as temperatures bottom
out in the mid 50s across the FA. With mostly clear skies and calm
winds, a few rural areas may dip into the lower 50s, especially
across central Ohio.
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening high pressure will exit northeast on Thursday as another
mid level shortwave dives into the region. Since this shortwave is
progged to be a bit weaker than the one overhead on Wednesday, and
since forecast soundings are showing less low level moisture on
Thursday as compared to Wednesday, am expecting less in the way of
cloud cover for Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to
moderate a bit Thursday and Thursday night as a warmer 850 mb
airmass edges in from the south, but they will still remain a tad
Thursday night into Friday a digging upper trough will settle into
the Great Lakes region with the trough axis swinging through the
forecast area just after daybreak. The NAM is a bit slower on the
progression of this trough than the other deterministic models.
Meanwhile closer to the surface, a weak cold front will be on our
doorstep around daybreak Friday. Weak forcing and paltry low level
moisture have led to a continued trimming of POPs across the area,
limiting chance POPs to the north and only slight chance for the
south. Expect the scattered showers and thunderstorms to exit our
east by early Friday evening as strong high pressure builds in
from the Upper Midwest. Strong cold air advection behind the front
will usher in another cool air mass Friday night with lows
expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front that is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley Friday
will stall out over the Tennessee Valley this weekend. A bubble of
high pressure building in from the Midwest will provide plenty of
sunshine on Saturday with maxima slightly below average for this
time of the year (upper 70s to lower 80s).
Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with
temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start to
see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-State
area toward afternoon.
Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure
riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some
differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump
pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2
inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat
in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of
thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving
across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep
instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE
across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the
Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z
Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio
River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially
across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the
end of the long term.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control through fcst period. Some
scattered clouds still but VFR cigs. Light fog possible at KLUK
near sunrise but not probability seems low enough to leave out.
Light and variable winds beoming more south tonight. Weakening
frontall boundary approaching this evening will bring some mid
clouds in to area but still VFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible Sunday night into
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