Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191920 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 220 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much above normal temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach of a storm system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure over the area has allowed winds to remain relatively light with overcast skies. Skies have begun to clear from north to south with the northern half of CWA clear. Where skies have cleared temperatures are in the lower 60s with temperatures around 50 degrees where skies have remained overcast. Overnight, mostly clear skies will allow the ground to quickly radiate. This will push dewpoint depressions close to zero by midnight. As this happens fog and low ceilings will quickly come right back. Low temperatures Monday morning will bottom out around 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area. PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised PoPs Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley. Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous low. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely. During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and visibilities by the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Haines CLIMATE...

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