Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300533 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will sit over the region tonight, then exit northeast on Thursday as a weak upper trough swings into the area. A cold front will sweep across the region on Friday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build back into the region Friday night into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak upper level shortwave continues to move away from the area as surface high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley. Mostly clear skies will prevail during the overnight hours, with a few cirrus streaming by from west to east across the FA. Dew points will hover in the low to mid 50s tonight as temperatures bottom out in the mid 50s across the FA. With mostly clear skies and calm winds, a few rural areas may dip into the lower 50s, especially across central Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weakening high pressure will exit northeast on Thursday as another mid level shortwave dives into the region. Since this shortwave is progged to be a bit weaker than the one overhead on Wednesday, and since forecast soundings are showing less low level moisture on Thursday as compared to Wednesday, am expecting less in the way of cloud cover for Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to moderate a bit Thursday and Thursday night as a warmer 850 mb airmass edges in from the south, but they will still remain a tad below normal. Thursday night into Friday a digging upper trough will settle into the Great Lakes region with the trough axis swinging through the forecast area just after daybreak. The NAM is a bit slower on the progression of this trough than the other deterministic models. Meanwhile closer to the surface, a weak cold front will be on our doorstep around daybreak Friday. Weak forcing and paltry low level moisture have led to a continued trimming of POPs across the area, limiting chance POPs to the north and only slight chance for the south. Expect the scattered showers and thunderstorms to exit our east by early Friday evening as strong high pressure builds in from the Upper Midwest. Strong cold air advection behind the front will usher in another cool air mass Friday night with lows expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold front that is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley Friday will stall out over the Tennessee Valley this weekend. A bubble of high pressure building in from the Midwest will provide plenty of sunshine on Saturday with maxima slightly below average for this time of the year (upper 70s to lower 80s). Center of high pressure shifts to the east by Sunday. This will likely lead to an increase in cloud cover for Sunday (with temperatures remaining slightly below average), and we will start to see an increasing chance of convection particularly in the Tri-State area toward afternoon. Stalled boundary will lift back north as a warm front Sunday night into Monday. At the same time, models show a wave of low pressure riding along the front across the Ohio Valley. There are some differences with the track, but enough confidence exists to bump pops into the high chance range. PW`s are forecast to rise over 2 inches and will have to keep an eye on a potential heavy rain threat in the Monday/Monday night time frame. Have also included chance of thunder for this system with the track of the low likely moving across central Ohio. Given cloud cover, this may help to keep instability down some, but GFS still suggests aoa 1000 J/kg CAPE across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky south of the track of the low. Wave of low pressure winds up along the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Tuesday, but the trailing boundary looks to be parked near the Ohio River through mid-week. Therefore will continue low pops especially across the southern portion of the CWA near the boundary through the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through fcst period. Some scattered clouds still but VFR cigs. Light fog possible at KLUK near sunrise but not probability seems low enough to leave out. Light and variable winds beoming more south tonight. Weakening frontall boundary approaching this evening will bring some mid clouds in to area but still VFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and vsbys possible Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...Padgett

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