Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...SETTLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...BUT IT WILL BECOME POORLY DEFINED. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF HUMID AIR. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED ALL SEVERE WORDING FROM THE HWO. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AROUND THE AREA AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED LATER OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED AND WEAK FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. THERE IS ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NORTH TO BE DRY AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WORK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO SOUTHERN FLOW AND A SLOW GRADUAL INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S. FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A H5 TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD STARTS WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. EXPECT CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR NOW BUT COVERAGE COULD WARRANT EVEN HIGHER POPS. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT. APPEARS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS AND THUS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH PARTS OF CWA. SOME BETTER DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA AND THUNDER AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SOME DISCREPANCY ABOUT EXTENT OF DRYING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL OPT FOR TOKEN SMALL POP FOR NOW. TEMPS COOLING DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WENT AT OR JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AT NIGHT. NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FOR LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A MIX OF CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY KEEP FOG POTENTIAL IN CHECK AT SOUTHERN SITES THAT REMAIN IN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KCVG...KLUK AND KILN WITH SOME IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG. MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. FOR LATER TODAY...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AROUND THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...HICKMAN

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