Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311752 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 152 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING LESS SOLID SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE AN INITIAL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN STEADY OUT AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SIMILAR WITH CLOSED H5 LOW OVER INDIANA THIS EVENING DIGGING SOUTH THRU THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX WITH SNOW AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THRU THE EVENING. SOLNS ARE HOLDING ONTO PRECIP LONGER AND WITH COLD AIR...HAVE TRENDED FCST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AN ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO AND NRN KY. SNOW WILL HAVE IMPACT ON PLANTS...SO HAVE UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE WARNING AND EXPANDED IT FURTHER EAST TO INCORPORATE THE REGION WHERE SOME ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TEMPS WILL LKLY FALL TO 32 OR BELOW OVERNIGHT. PCPN TO TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS AND CAA WILL KEEP SATURDAYS HIGHS OVER 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 40 NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SE. MID/UPR LEVEL TROF AXIS TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START TO DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP. READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 7-8 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND THE REAL WARM UP IS ON MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 14-15 DEG WARMER THAN SUNDAY DUE TO THE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN AIRMASS. FLOW ON MONDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A MORE MUTED BUT CONTINUED WARM UP WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAPE A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WEST CENTRAL TX. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROVIDED BY YESTERDAYS EUROPEAN MODEL. AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING MOVES NORTHEAST...THE SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT AND RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR A DRIER THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...BUT GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THE L/W TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EUROPEAN HAS A SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH FURTHER EAST AND INDICATES IT AS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT...IE MUCH EARLIER WITH NO SURFACE LOW AND/OR PRECIP AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL TEMPORARILY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. MEANWHILE CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THAT. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS IN THE CINCINNATI AREA LATE TODAY. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z AND WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN EXPECT THIS TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT AROUND COLUMBUS WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID. MVFR CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FT WILL PREVAIL AND SOME PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT WHILE VERY SLOWLY VEERING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING ALTHOUGH REMAINING MVFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072-077>081. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...

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