Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KILN 212344 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 644 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP CONTROL OF THINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP AGAIN. WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE OBSERVED LOWS LAST NIGHT...BUT BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG TONIGHT SO WENT KEPT THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY...MATCHING GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL SEE WINDS START TO COME IN FROM THE EAST...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPS STICKING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION GOING INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT GFS RUNS SHOWED PRECIP OVER THE AREA...BUT THE 12Z HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL INDEED BE SOME MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGHER SKY GRIDS...BUT WAS NOT SOLD ON THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW (GENERALLY BETWEEN 850-700MB) AND FOUND VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT ANY FORCING. WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500MB INDICATED BY THE GFS SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPS IN THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH HAVING THEIR TYPICAL THERMAL PROFILE BIASES. AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF AFOREMENTIONED FIRST LOW AS IT DIVES SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL EJECT THE FIRST UPR LVL CLOSED LOW NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS LOW HAVING MORE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWERING CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND FREEZING LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM GROUND AND PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY IN NATURE...AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN EXITING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT TRENDED THIS WAY YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --WEAK EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES E. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TNGT...BUT IT SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD AND PUT KLUK DOWN TO 1/4SM FG DUE TO THE ELY FLOW. EXPECT SOME CI TO BEGIN TO WORK IN TOMORROW AHEAD OF H5 S/W EJECTING FROM THE LOWER MS VLY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES
