Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240910 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 410 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Moisture will continue to stream into the region, bringing a chance for heavy rain today into tonight. A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a chance of severe thunderstorms, but also an end to the chance for heavy rainfall. High pressure will then move into the region on Monday, bringing drier conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Broad southwesterly flow aloft continues to pull moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front that pushed through the region yesterday will come back to the north as a warm front, setting up near the Ohio River. Overrunning pcpn has already begun to lift over the region, with the heaviest axis affecting the nw quarter of the fa. A second band is forecast to come up and affect the se, merging with the nw band around I-71. Will continue with categorical PoPs across the region with a chance of thunder during the afternoon in the south. Will expand the Flood Watch across the entire fa as the combination of the rainfall expected today and tonight will bring flooding potential. Highs today will range from the upper 40s in West Central Ohio to around 60 in nrn KY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Tonight, a strong shortwave trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt as is lifts out through the nrn MS Valley. At the same time, a surface low deepens at it moves into the wrn Great Lakes. The low will whip a cold front up the Ohio Valley tonight. Wind fields will increase (50-70 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) and wind shear in the warm sector will contribute to increasing severe weather potential. SPC has placed the fa in marginal to slight risk for severe weather tonight. Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threats from these storms. Models are consistent in pushing the cdfnt through fa by 12Z, bringing an end to the severe weather and flooding threat, although rivers will stay out of their banks into next week. With a strong gradient overnight, winds could gust up to 35 mph. Surface high will build in from the southwest on Sunday. Expect early highs on Sunday in the east. In the west, temperatures will fall in morning, before recovering a little in the afternoon. Some high clouds will affect the region Sunday night into Monday as upper level energy lifts northeast in the flow. Temperatures will be a little cooler, but will remain above normal with highs Monday from the upper 40s north to the upper 50s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather into the middle of next week. Temperatures Tuesday look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with highs from the middle 50s north to the lower 60 south. Mid level shortwave and surface low to eject northeast from the central plains Wednesday into the Great Lakes Thursday. Some timing and placement solution differences exist, so will limit pops to chance category Wednesday afternoon, with a return moisture. Then will ramp up pops to the likely category Wednesday night into Thursday. On the warm side of the system temperature look to remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal Wednesday with highs generally between 55 and 60. With mid level trof settling into the Great Lakes will continue a chance of showers across the north Friday. Temperatures cooler and closer to normal Friday with highs from the lower 40s north to near 50 south. As temperatures turn cooler the rain showers may mix with and change to snow late Thursday night/Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Incoming batch of rain will become more prevalent after about 10z this morning at CVG/LUK and then 12-13z for remaining TAF sites. Prevailing rain should last for several hours until the early afternoon and then a brief lull in activity will occur as upper level energy exits to the northeast later today. A warm front will lift north through the region in the 0-3z time frame tonight. Activity after the warm frontal passage will then be more showery in nature and CVG will see the chance for thunderstorms during the extended 30 hour TAF. MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected for the bulk of the next 24-30 hours. Some IFR and even LIFR cigs/vsbys will be found in the more persistent rainfall, while periods of VFR conditions will be possible in-between the rain. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to continue through Sunday morning. Thunderstorms are possible early Sunday, along with gusty winds. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ053>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. Flood Watch from 7 AM EST this morning through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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