Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231755 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area today, as a weak mid-level wave spread some clouds into the region. Southerly winds will increase going into Friday, in advance of a cold front that will move through the area Friday night. Another area of high pressure will build in over the weekend, persisting into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Generally quiet weather is expected today with mid level clouds moving east and then northeast as the forcing associated with the upper trough moves from the northern Great Lakes towards northern New England. Surface winds will remain light from the south-southwest as the high to the south is still providing a strong influence. Clouds will decrease rapidly this evening as winds also experience a diurnal drop. Temperatures under the cloud cover will be hard pressed to push past the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As upper flow behind the trough axis eventually pivots from NW to W through the rest of the short term forecast period, surface high pressure will continue to move east, eventually becoming centered (if rather elongated) across the southeastern states. Surface flow will likely back to the ESE on Thursday night, remaining light but not quite calm. These winds will increase again on Friday, with warm advection beginning at all levels, as low-level flow becomes enhanced by a tightening pressure gradient. This will set up both Thursday night and Friday as being slightly warmer than the preceding night and day. There is definitely room for the temperature forecast on Friday to still increase slightly, especially if it continues to look like clouds in advance of the next front (covered in the long term AFD section) will hold off until late in the day. This forecast will allow for lower to middle 50, slightly higher than the SREF mean, and close to a MAV/MET guidance compromise. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level trough will dig east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. A cold front associated with this upper level feature will push east through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited, so for the most part, clouds will thicken ahead of the cold front. There is a slight chance for a shower late in our northeast zones. Skies should become partly cloudy/mostly sunny in the wake of the front on Saturday. Despite some weak CAA, sunshine and early mild temperatures to start will allow for highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s. For Saturday night into Sunday, mid level trough is much more progressive now, and associated secondary push of CAA is more shunted to our northeast. As a result, clouds will be less, and it is not expected to be as cold on Sunday as previously thought a few days ago. Highs will range from the lower to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening. It will then move east through Monday while a mid level ridge traverses the region. Temperatures will modify into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. There continues to be a fair amount of spread among the models in terms of the strength and timing of the next mid level trough and associated cold front. Used a combination of the previous forecast and 00Z blended forecast to account for this uncertainty. This keeps low chance PoPs in the forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night as a front tries to push east across the region. Have gone with a dry forecast for Wednesday. Tuesday is looking like the warmest day of the extended, mid and upper 50s, with cooler temperatures forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A mid level cloud deck will cross east over the TAF sites this afternoon, dissipating and eroding quickly from southwest to northeast late in the day. South winds will become light overnight. Winds will pick back up during the day on Thanksgiving and could reach over 10kt by late morning. Cirrus will begin to spill into the region from the northwest later in the day. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Franks

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