Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231930 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 330 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the area tonight. This will usher in above normal temperatures that will last well into next week. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes on Sunday with another low lifting into the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Band of mid clouds will spread across the area this evening. Precipitation associated with this will weaken as it heads into the Tri-State late this afternoon. Additional showers will be possible this evening, primarily north of I-70, but it appears that anything that does occur will be brief and light. Have backed down to slight chance PoPs. Temperatures will drop off this evening, then after a warm front lifts north, winds will turn south and temperatures will rise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Area will be in the warm sector through the period. Southerly winds will bring an influx of moisture which will result in quite a bit of cloud cover. Despite this, temperatures will be rather mild. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on both highs and lows. Not out of the question that a few showers developing across Indiana could move into western counties late Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weakening upper level low pressure system will lift slowly northeast from the mid Mississippi Valley on Saturday to the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Several pieces of mid/upper level energy will rotate around the low and across our area through the weekend leading to fairly high pops and occasional showers. Instability remains fairly meager through Saturday although there is a bit of an uptick in the mucapes during the afternoon and into the evening which could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. With a warm air mass in place on Saturday, highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s across the southeast. The main upper level trough axis will pivot up across our region late Saturday night and into Sunday afternoon. Some slightly better instabilities will develop out ahead of this which should lead to some better chances of thunder for later Sunday morning and into the afternoon, especially across eastern portions of our area. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the 60s. Brief mid level ridging will push east across the region Sunday night, leading to a bit of a lull in any pcpn. However, another upper level through axis will work east across the area Monday into Tuesday. This will result in additional chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms, primarily for Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system, highs on Monday will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs cooling back down into the 60s for Tuesday. Weak mid level ridging will then build back into the region through mid week. This will lead to dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid clouds will spread across the region early in the TAF period. A warm front will lift across the area after 00Z. There could be a few light showers with this, particularly from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK. However, the probability is low and even if they do occur, there would be no impact on flight category. So that potential has not been included in the TAFs. Southeast winds will veer to the south once this front moves through. In addition, low level winds will increase in speed leading to low level wind shear until around 13Z. Lower clouds will spread into the area on Friday morning. Confidence is low concerning what level these clouds will be. At this point have only lowered KDAY to MVFR, but it is certainly possible that MVFR ceilings could affect more areas. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Friday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

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