Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 041742 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND EAST. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY FOR A THREAT OF A SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE GFS HOWEVER NOT AS LONG AS THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION AND ON THURSDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. TOUGH TO TIME THE STORMS IN TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES THOUGH SO WILL STICK WITH THE TREND OF COVERING THE THREAT WITH A VCTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR BR/FG RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK. WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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