Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 062022 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 422 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY IN A WARM AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND... PROVIDING A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF OVER THE WEST AND A RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD A LITTLE EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS ILN/S FA NRN COUNTIES INVOF E-W ORIENTED SFC FRONT WHERE MARGINAL INSTBY EXISTS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLD SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACRS NRN KY. THESE STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH LACK OF SHEAR THEY WILL GO UP AND DOWN QUICKLY WITH ALL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING. SFC FRONT ACRS OUR NORTH TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE SLIGHTLY EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST IN AFTN BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS A LTL EAST MORE FAVORABLE INSTBY DEVELOPS AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUS WARMTH ON THE WEEKEND...THE PASSAGE OF A WEATHER SYSTEM WITH GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREATS...AND A BRIEF TRANSITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT 12Z ON SATURDAY...FLOW STILL QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NOAM CONTINENT AND ADJACENT WATERS. PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SC COAST...TRAPPED WITHIN/UNDERNEATH LARGE SCALE RIDGING CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP/LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED IN THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER NM/UTAH. SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SAT/SUN PUT THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ERN FRINGE OF MODEST SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN/CNTL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. 925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 20C BOTH DAYS WHICH SHOULD YIELD MORE LOW/MID 80S...WITH DEWPTS INCREMENTALLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S ADDING DOSE OF SUMMERTIME MUGGINESS TO THE AIR. SYNOPTIC FORCING QUITE WEAK...BUT NONZERO...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY /LIKELY REMNANT MCV/S FROM PLAINS CONVECTION/ TRAVERSING FROM WRN KY/IND INTO MICH THROUGH BOTH DAYS. SO THINK THERE WILL BE SHRA/STORMS ON BOTH DAYS /ESP WRN OH AND SERN IND/ BUT LIKELY LOOSELY FOCUSED WITH A NOTED DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE TO ADD DETAIL TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IN THE RAIN CHANCE DEPT. NEITHER DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT...IN FACT...THE BULK OF BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE DRY/WARM. LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY....CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH OHIO VALLEY STILL FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAGNITUDES/FOCUS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO MONDAY EVE. CONTINUED WITH 50-65% RAIN CHANCES THIS PERIOD TO COINCIDE WITH THE ENSEMBLE-DRIVEN SIGNALS IN THIS TIME FRAME. LIKELY STILL A VERY WARM DAY ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE LESS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY/ ALSO INCREASES SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER-END SVR THREAT IF FORCING/INSTBY CAN BE JUXTAPOSED SUFFICIENTLY SOMETIME MONDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR DOWNSTREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. UNFAVORABLE TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN SO KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN HIGH CHANCE AREA AT THIS TIME RANGE. TURNING COOLER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA...BUT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS IN...WITH DETERMINISTIC 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 0C IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT NOW LOOK LOW-MID 60S...QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...AND LOOKS LIKE COOLER WX WILL LINGER INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH JUST A FEW MID CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT KLUK BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED DIURNALLY CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. COULD BE A VERY LOW CHANCE POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. THIS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HICKMAN

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