Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252348 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 648 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region tonight offering dry weather and cooler temperatures. This high will build across the Ohio Valley providing continued dry conditions through Tuesday. Moisture looks to return in the southerly flow on the back side of retreating high pressure Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... West-southwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the Ohio Valley overnight. Latest satellite imagery shows clouds have eroded some allowing for more sunshine over the nw portion of ILN/s FA. Expect to see a fair amount of high level clouds thru about 06Z and then a decrease in these clouds late. With winds becoming light and clouds clearing temperatures will be colder tonight. Expect lows from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will build across the area Monday afternoon. Dry airmass with surface dewpoints dropping into the 20s. Expect to see mostly sunny sky conditions with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. Expect to see highs on Monday from the lower 50s north to the mid 50s south. The center of the surface high will slide off to the east Monday night. Clear skies to continue in the dry airmass with lows from near 30 northeast to the mid 30s southwest. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will begin to shift off to the east through the day on Tuesday, leading to a gradual increase in mainly high level cloudiness. It will also allow for us to get into some return flow through the day with temperatures pushing up into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A mid and upper level trough axis will move out of the Rockies on Wednesday with some northern and southern stream energy phasing together as the trough moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes region through Thursday. There are some timing/strength and placement differences among the models but the overall gist is for a developing surface low to lift from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes through the day on Thursday. Ahead of this, a warm front will lift up into our area through Wednesday night before an attendant cold front pushes through as the low moves east through Thursday. This will allow for a chance of showers to develop northward into the area through the day on Wednesday with the highest pops across the south. As the low approaches along with some better forcing, showers will then become more widespread Wednesday night into Thursday before beginning to taper off later Thursday into Thursday night as the low shifts eastward. Have kept pcpn just showers for now, but some weak elevated instabilities will be pulled northward into at least southern portions of our fa ahead of the low so we may eventually need to introduce a slight chance of thunder. Temperatures will remain well above normal with highs mostly in the 50s to possibly lower 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region late in the week and into the weekend. Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight. The high will settle across the Ohio Valley on Monday. The high is then expected to move east Monday night. Enhanced high level clouds are expected for much of tonight as high level moisture and an upper level jet produce cirrus. Forecast models shift the cirrus out of the region between 09Z and 12Z. Thereafter, skies will be mainly clear. Winds will vary in direction across the region into Monday depending on the ridge axis. Variable winds Monday evening should shift a south to southeast direction overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday in showers. MVFR ceilings possible on Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman

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