Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241325 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 925 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUR PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH AND MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE PCPN AS IT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WILL GO AHEAD AND NUDGE UP CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST A BIT BUT MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO TOTALLY KEEP FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WHILE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...KLUK HAS DEVELOPED LIFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOWER MVFR CLOUDS (3000-6000 FEET) EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE AIRPORTS BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

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