Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210543 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 143 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AMPLIFIED MID/UPR AIR FLOW WITH TROF DIGGING SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN MODERATE INSTBY TO OUR WEST THIS AFTN OVER INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACRS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO ILN/S WESTERN COUNTIES IN NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED SOUNDING NORTH OF CVG YIELDS ELEVATED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTBY...ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS SHUD ALLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO/MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION AND UPDATED HWO PRODUCT. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE /AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD. MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT 12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU NORTHEAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOV RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHWEST OHIO INTO EAST CENTRAL IL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THEY MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO TAKE THUNDER OUT OF ALL TERMINALS BUT KDAY AND THERE HAVE REDUCE FROM TEMPO TO VCTS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSPATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET HOWEVER CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ALSO NORTH OF I-70 THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTION IN THE TAFS. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SHIFT WEST WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HAYDU

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