Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 071055 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 655 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. FRONTAL PROGRESSION BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD STARTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND SUSTENANCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CARRYING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 6 PM. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTAINING CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL WIND FLOW OF ABOUT 30 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BEFORE PRECIP PUTS A DAMPER ON DAYTIME HEATING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT ALIGNED PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FIRST SURGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVES EAST AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME. CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY. THOUGH THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING IN HWO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A REGIME OF CLOUDS... PRECIP AND OCCASIONAL COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 NORTH TO 80 SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT STARTS TO RETROGRADE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME VESTIGE OF IT COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY WHICH WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A LOW INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY TO START DROPPING BACK ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MOIST SWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO KILN AND KCMH/KLCK EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH DOWN INTO OHIO TONIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN. SCTD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF T HIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SW TAF SITES. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AT KCVG/KLUK. HAVE TEMPO GROUP AT EACH TAF SITE FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP FCST IN MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS FROM THE SW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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