Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 010558 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEK OR ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WELL INTO THE NIGHT. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE TRI-STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS. EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS STILL ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS EARLY ON MONDAY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FORCING FOCUSES MORE ON THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER COULD LET TEMPERATURES BUMP UP TO THE UPPER 80S...BUT MID 80S SEEMED MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE EARLY THREAT FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LEFTOVER CLOUDS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY LATE MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL REMAIN AROUND 70 WHILE A GOOD 4-8 DEGREE DROP IS EXPECTED IN THE BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUES NIGHT. HIGHS TUES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY AND THEN DROP INTO THE 70S ONCE RAIN BEGINS. SOUTHEAST CWA COULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE A BRIEF RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWEST AND A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MUCH LESS COHESION DURING THE DAY AND SEE A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY EVERYWHERE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG MODEL CLUSTERING OF A BROAD/FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND QUASI- ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS...WHICH COULD BE INFERRED AS THE BASAL PORTION OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND CNTL ATLANTIC. THE WEAK COLD FRONT FROM TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MAINTAINING A DRY FCST WED BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN NRN KY/SERN IND OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM OR TWO. APPEARS PWAT MAY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATED FRONTAL ZONE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTBY TO PROMOTE AN UPDRAFT OR TWO AS TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AND DWPTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN FAR SOUTH/WEST. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH THIS. VERY LITTLE/NO SYNOPTIC FORCING EVIDENT ATTM TO WARRANT A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCE. MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN. MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN THESE PATTERNS. SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH. AND LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION. IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD 06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...JDR

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