Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201136 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 636 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AT MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SPREAD WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS. BUT THE COLUMN MAY SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE RIDGING WILL OCCUR WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF WITH FLOW BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. APPEARS THAT STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN FOR TONIGHT BUT THEN SCATTER ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF CLOUDS ALTHOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY. FORCING LOOKS NEBULOUS AND HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. FORECAST LOWS ARE ABOVE MOS TONIGHT BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY BLENDING IN COOLER RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THESE ARE NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS FORCING GETS CLOSER/STRONGER. EXPECT RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES NORTHEAST. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH AT THAT TIME HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION STILL OCCURRING IS IN QUESTION. SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THIS TIME. RIDGING DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TAF SITES. HAVE THIS LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY WORKING INTO KCVG AND KLUK. KILN WILL BE MORE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW AND THEREFORE ONLY HAVE A VCSH MENTION THERE. MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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