Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 280519
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
119 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
High pressure will build over the mid section of the country as a
cold front moves from the Ohio Valley to the east coast. An upper
level trough of low pressure will pass east through the Great
Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure with a dry
and cool airmass will remain in control until the next weak cold
front crosses on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated storms moving across the far northern part of the
forecast area should continue to diminish over the next few hours.
Residual high based cumulus will persist ahead of a cold front as
it tracks across the rest of the area overnight. Clearing will
occur once this boundary moves through.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will cross east through the Great Lakes and
northern Ohio Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. Combined with the
upward motion of the trough and cold advection pushing in from the
north, there may be some sprinkles from these features, possibly
an isolated light shower over central Ohio.
After the trough passes, northerly flow will bring a definitive
and reinforcing shot of dry air to the Ohio Valley. Highs Tuesday
will be about 5 degrees below normal, from the mid 70s in the
north under more clouds to the low 80s in northern Kentucky. The
real cool-down will be found Tuesday and Wednesday nights as mins
drop 10 deg below climo into the mid and upper 50s.
High pressure will then prevail at the surface with a weakly zonal
flow aloft and generally clear skies. Highs Wednesday will only
top out in the upper 70s with northerly flow at the surface and
northwest flow aloft.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sfc high will be transitioning eastward on Thursday, but it will
keep the region dry. Temperatures will begin to rebound from the
mid week cool down as highs return to the lower 80s.
For the second straight day the extended models are showing the
cdfnt pushing into the region on Friday. This has increased the
confidence of scattered showers and thunderstorms despite the
difference in the models QPF placement. Upped pops about 10 percent
for the northern half of the fa on Friday afternoon into Friday
Models agree in dropping the front to near the Ohio River by 12Z
Saturday. Convection should pop across srn sections on Saturday
along the front. The ECMWF is a little slower in dropping the front
south Saturday night than the GFS. Leaned towards the quicker GFS.
By Sunday another high will bring drier conditions for Sunday and
Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in the lower
80s with mid 80s expected for Monday afternoon. Lows will typically
be in the lower to mid 60s through the period.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Some mid clouds moving thru with weak boundary. Isolated showers
dissipated. High pressure building in with good CAA for late June.
Should see some cu develop with heating on Tuesday. Winds will
become a bit gusty as well but VFR conditions should prevail
through TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday.
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