Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 281755 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 155 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley this morning will slowly move toward the southeast U.S. coast by Saturday evening. Return flow around the high will allow temperatures to climb to much above normal by Saturday. A cold front is then expected to push south across the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. This front will bring a chance of precipitation, mainly on Sunday. High pressure will move east across the Great Lakes on Monday, while the old frontal boundary moves back northeast as a warm front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will slowly push off to the east through this afternoon. This will allow for some mainly high level clouds to continue to drift down from the northwest through the day. Highs will range from near 60 degrees in the northeast to the upper 60s in the southwest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The majority of operational models are in fairly decent agreement in terms of synoptic scale systems through the short term. The NAM was showing its usual low level moisture bias developing across the northwest late tonight into Saturday. Otherwise, a blend of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF was used through Saturday night, then a GFS/ECMWF blend Sunday into Monday night. Surface high pressure will slowly move to a position off the southeast U.S. coast by Saturday night while a cold front slowly works its way into the Great Lakes. The scenario will bring an increase in the surface pressure gradient along with fairly strong WAA in association with southwesterly return flow. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, along with with some breezy conditions across the northwest half, temperatures will climb to much above normal readings on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 70s north to near 80 along and south of the Ohio River. Record highs at the big three sites are all in the 80s, and appear safe at this time, despite temperatures some 15 degrees above normal. For Saturday night into Sunday, the cold front will gradually move southeast into our area. This process will bring an increase in clouds, along with the threat for precipitation. Low level forcing and upper level support will be maximized across the northern zones during the day. Forcing will quickly wane by Sunday evening as s/wv energy aloft will exit to the east. Thus, will have high chance PoPs across the north on Sunday with low chance to no threat for showers across the far southern zones. Precipitation is expected to be in the form of convective showers. Instability parameters indicate that there could be a rumble of thunder during the afternoon near the frontal zone, so have added a slight chance of thunder. Temperatures will show a small diurnal rise across the northwest due to the faster arrival of the front, while locations farther to the southeast should be able to warm up into the 70s. For Sunday night, models indicate that the threat for precipitation will end fairly quickly during the early evening. However, low level rh fields show fairly abundant moisture at 925 mb and 850 mb such that mostly cloudy skies will likely continue into the overnight hours. Lows by Monday morning will range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. For the period Monday into Monday night, mid level ridging will move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will allow the old frontal boundary to move back northeast as a warm front through this period. Considerable clouds Monday morning should give way to partly cloudy conditions by Monday evening, followed by skies becoming mostly clear Monday night. Highs will range from the lower 60s northeast to the lower 70s along and south of the Ohio River on Monday. Lows Monday night will remain in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Southerly flow will become more prominent on Tuesday. Tuesday is expected to be quite warm once again with decent southerly flow and ample sunshine. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the middle 70s to around 80. Models start to diverge for Wednesday into Thursday with timing and strength of fronts. At this time there is a better signal for Thursday therefore went dry on Wednesday and bring in a chance for rain showers on Thursday. Even with the potential front expect continued above normal temperatures through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will slide off to the east tonight as a cold front sags slowly southeast into the southern Great Lakes through the day on Saturday. With a dry airmass in place, expect mainly just cirrus to affect the TAFS through the period. A strengthening low level jet later tonight will lead to some marginal LLWS criteria late tonight into early Saturday morning. After that, as the surface pressure gradient increases from the northwest, expect southwest winds to increase with gusts into the 20-25 knot range toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible on Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.