Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241856 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 256 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A cold front will push into the region on Thursday and then stall out across the Ohio Valley through the weekend. This will result in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms through the second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The cloud shield has pushed up to about the I-71 corridor early this afternoon. We are seeing some spotty light returns on radar across our southeast but little if any of this is likely reaching the ground. Both the 12Z NAM and GFS continue to advect low level moisture (at and below 700 mb) northwest across the remainder of our area through tonight. This may be overdone somewhat with the drier air in place, but given the progress so far, will allow for partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area for tonight. Will also keep a 20 pop across our far southeast to account for any stray showers/sprinkles. Lows tonight will be around 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A narrow surface ridge axis will push east across our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will lead to some developing low level southerly flow and weak WAA through the day on Tuesday. This will result in decreasing clouds with highs on Tuesday into the mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Models point to an unsettled weather pattern featuring a persistent frontal boundary, enhanced by several waves of low pressure, fed by a rich supply of moisture. Area will be in a dry southerly flow between two low pressure systems on Wednesday, with no precip expected. That will change starting on Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through from the west, bringing the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will wash out briefly under high pressure Thursday night, before redeveloping as a warm front and lifting across the region Friday to Sunday. This scenario suggests a prolonged period for showers and thunderstorms to develop, lasting through the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push through Monday, accompanied by more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period. Highs in the 80s Wednesday will be boosted by warm advection. Readings are forecast to slide back into the 70s Thursday and Friday due to precip and modest cold advection associated with the weakening cold front. Mainly 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday with the area in the warm sector. A retreat toward the near normal upper 60s will be possible Monday behind the stronger cold front.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low to mid level moisture will continue to overspread the area from the southeast through the remainder of this afternoon and into tonight. The clouds are having a bit of a tough time as they move into some drier air but they are nonetheless making slow but steady progress across our area. Will therefore allow for VFR clouds to overspread the TAF sites through late afternoon/early evening. The models are eventually trying to bring some MVFR cigs in later tonight and perhaps even some IFR. Think this may be overdone somewhat so will just allow for a period of MVFR cigs at the southern TAF sites late tonight into early Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...JGL

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