Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 100609 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 109 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST OHIO TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ARCTIC FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACRS CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH WERE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE BY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF AXIS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY AREA OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... LEADING EDGE OF WAA WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW...WHICH WILL BE OVER SE LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WEDS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD POCKET. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...JUST UNDERNEATH A ZONE OF NEGATIVE EPV NEAR 850 HPA... WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A LOW-LEVEL TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE ON THE BACK OF THE SFC COLD POCKET UNDERCUTTING COLD TEMPS ALOFT. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BANDED HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS FORCING WILL ALL BE CONFINED BELOW 700-HPA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDING TO 600-HPA. THIS MAKES IT TRICKY TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER COLD POCKET MOVES THROUGH...MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL DROP TO NEAR 850-800 HPA...SO THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH AND BACK EDGE DEPARTING COLD POOL. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST LIKELY MAKE IT TO ROUGHLY THE I-75 CORRIDOR BTWN 09Z AND 11Z...AND INTO CNTRL OHIO BY 13Z-15Z. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IF SNOW SHOWERS GET HEAVY ENOUGH. WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A WARNING GOING...THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. COMBINED WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND...THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SNOW ON THE GROUND REMAINS POWDERY IN NATURE. IF SNOW SHOWERS BECOME HEAVY...WITH VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE...THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW MAY LEAD TO OCCL SNOW SQUALLS WITH NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE THRU WEDS AFTERNOON. MOST SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THRU EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS TO PERSIST. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER DARK WEDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FA FOR NOW WITH THE GFS THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE. MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS IS FAR MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER. HAVE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR NOW. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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H5 LOW IS E OF THE TAFS AND INTO NE KY. AS H5 LOW PULLS E AREA OF WRAP AROUND SNOW IN INDIANA WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS. CIGS/VSBYS ARE MVFR IN THE SN...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR. WINDS ARE NOT REAL STRONG HOWEVER...SO CUT BACK ON THEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN WHEN SECONDARY TROF SWINGS THRU AROUND 12Z. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30KT CAUSING MORE BLSN. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC AND H5 LOWS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...PULLING MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE TAFS THRU THE DAY. BY LATE AFTN...H5 FLOW BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC...SO EXPECT SHSN TO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWBLITZEL/HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL SHORT TERM...HAWBLITZEL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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