Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280519 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 119 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the mid section of the country as a cold front moves from the Ohio Valley to the east coast. An upper level trough of low pressure will pass east through the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure with a dry and cool airmass will remain in control until the next weak cold front crosses on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Isolated storms moving across the far northern part of the forecast area should continue to diminish over the next few hours. Residual high based cumulus will persist ahead of a cold front as it tracks across the rest of the area overnight. Clearing will occur once this boundary moves through. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will cross east through the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. Combined with the upward motion of the trough and cold advection pushing in from the north, there may be some sprinkles from these features, possibly an isolated light shower over central Ohio. After the trough passes, northerly flow will bring a definitive and reinforcing shot of dry air to the Ohio Valley. Highs Tuesday will be about 5 degrees below normal, from the mid 70s in the north under more clouds to the low 80s in northern Kentucky. The real cool-down will be found Tuesday and Wednesday nights as mins drop 10 deg below climo into the mid and upper 50s. High pressure will then prevail at the surface with a weakly zonal flow aloft and generally clear skies. Highs Wednesday will only top out in the upper 70s with northerly flow at the surface and northwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Sfc high will be transitioning eastward on Thursday, but it will keep the region dry. Temperatures will begin to rebound from the mid week cool down as highs return to the lower 80s. For the second straight day the extended models are showing the cdfnt pushing into the region on Friday. This has increased the confidence of scattered showers and thunderstorms despite the difference in the models QPF placement. Upped pops about 10 percent for the northern half of the fa on Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Models agree in dropping the front to near the Ohio River by 12Z Saturday. Convection should pop across srn sections on Saturday along the front. The ECMWF is a little slower in dropping the front south Saturday night than the GFS. Leaned towards the quicker GFS. By Sunday another high will bring drier conditions for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures over the weekend will remain in the lower 80s with mid 80s expected for Monday afternoon. Lows will typically be in the lower to mid 60s through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Some mid clouds moving thru with weak boundary. Isolated showers dissipated. High pressure building in with good CAA for late June. Should see some cu develop with heating on Tuesday. Winds will become a bit gusty as well but VFR conditions should prevail through TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Padgett

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