Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KILN 211726 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1226 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRATUS DECK NE OF FCST AREA WILL HANG TOUGH AS CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE AXIS OF COOLER AIR ALONG A NW/SE BISECTION OF THE STATE. AREA OF STRATUS RUNNING FROM CINCY METRO AREA NW INTO RICHMOND AND ECNTL INDIANA SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES A BIT. HIGH TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE THICKNESS SUPPORTED AT 21Z FROM THE NAM THIS MORNING SO THERE WERE LITTLE CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OHIO. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL POP FROM 2500`-3500` TODAY AND QUICKLY DIE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NEITHER BE AS WIDESPREAD NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS. CI MAY SPILL INTO SW CWA TOMORROW...BUT EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION. IT MAY HANG ON THE HORIZON AND NEVER MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT AS UPPER FLOW IS STILL PULLING IN DRIER AIR ON NW WINDS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...FRANKS
