Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300229 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1029 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA BRINGING DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND LINGERING VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY...JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2AM. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVING IN...LINGERING LL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH HAD THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...THOUGH NOTHING DENSE EXPECTED. SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE AIRMASS WONT BE QUITE AS DRY. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MAINLY THE NW THIRD OF FCST AREA TO DROP LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS NOSING IN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 1 INCH AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP BELOW 60 F. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY. DRY/CLEAR TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE USED A BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA...FINALLY USHERING IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 02/03UTC IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE INTENSE RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS...KEPT IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z FOR KILN/KLUK ESPECIALLY...AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS...THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE HERE. OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JDR

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