Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231033 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 633 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF KCMH THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF MORE. DUE TO THIS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MORE ACROSS THIS AREA DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ADDED A PATCHY FROST MENTION IN TONIGHT IN THE COUNTIES EAST OF KCMH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...GUSTY WINDS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 25 PERCENT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY INSTABILITY IS PRETTY LIMITED AND THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST HAVING ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WORKS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIATION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF NOTE...THE STEADIER EUROPEAN SOLUTION SHIFTED ITS MASS FIELDS A GOOD BIT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ALOFT. ONE IS PROJECTED TO FORM EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE OTHER EVOLVES FROM OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS...ALTHOUGH ITS POSITION HAS BEEN WAVERING AND OF COURSE THIS COULD AFFECT OUR LOCAL WEATHER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES. WHILE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...DID NOT GO TOO HIGH DUE TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. NOT TO MENTION...MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE LOWS MAY ASSERT ITSELF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. ALSO INCLUDED THUNDER TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED DYNAMICS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT INSTABILITY COULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...BUT DID NOT GET FANCY TRYING TO DELINEATE WHERE THIS MAY SET UP. THUNDER MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED TO MONDAY FOR LATER FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR EVOLVES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN TO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT WILL WEAKEN AND VEER AFTER 00Z EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...SNYDER AVIATION...

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