Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252329 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 729 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday and move through the region Thursday night. High pressure returns by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1024mb high pressure was centered over Michigan this afternoon, and was building south into the Ohio Valley. Despite this, moisture wrapping around low pressure over New York state has led to a fairly extensive area of cu/stratocu across central Ohio before transitioning to mostly sunny skies across the Tri- State area. Central Ohio cu should begin to scatter later this afternoon, and then dissipate early this evening as daytime heating effects lessen. This will leave a mostly clear sky overnight. Most guidance suggests that patchy fog will form late at night, and is reflected in the gridded database. Lows will range from the upper 50s/near 60 north of Interstate 70 to the lower 60s further south toward the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Center of high pressure shifts east into New England on Wednesday. Return flow begins to promote dewpoint (moisture) increase Wednesday night. Wednesday should be another decent day, with plenty of sunshine after any morning fog. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today, with a return to mid 80s. On Wednesday night, clouds increase ahead of a shortwave/cold front over the Midwest. Can`t rule out a shower or thunderstorm sneaking into the east-central Indiana counties late at night, but for the most part Wednesday night will be dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front with upper level support will cross southeast through the region on Thursday. Storms will be fairly progressive and the highest potential for severity would be for winds and heavy rainfall. Future forecasts will narrow the specifics down but the front and upper level support appear to be progressive which would limit any storms from training substantially. Temperatures in the extended forecast appear to be capped towards seasonal normals on highs. Friday and Saturday will be the coolest days in the drier and post-frontal atmosphere, with readings topping out in the upper 70s. Overnight lows Thursday will be the mildest and in the mid to upper 60s, then drop nicely into the upper 50s to low 60s for the remainder of the forecast, gradually bumping into the mid 60s on days 7-8. While some rain and showers may make an appearance early next week, the pattern would suggest a lower chance of thunder and instability showers due to the mean trough over the eastern U.S. and cold air aloft. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Diurnal cumulus which has largely become cellular means a quick dissipation overnight as high pressure remains in control. Light easterly winds will become light/variable overnight. VFR conditions expected through about 07Z, after which some light fog is possible /MVFR/. KLUK could get into some IFR restrictions toward sunrise given the rather favorable wind trajectories off the Little Miami River and strong signal that fog will form in that valley overnight. Any fog rapidly dissipates on Wednesday morning under sunny skies. Light winds thru the day, with perhaps some increase in mid and high clouds toward the end of the 06Z /KCVG/ Cincinnati TAF. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Binau

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