Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231527 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1027 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8 JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 30 AND MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO NEAR 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS WILL SKIM KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK WITH A BRIEF MVFR SHOWER POSSIBLE AT KDAY BEFORE DAYBREAK. AREA MOVES ENE AND A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION IS FOUND UNTIL ABOUT NOON WITH MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY PRECEDE THE MAIN BODY OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH SHOULD ENTER BEFORE NIGHTFALL. PREVAILING RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DRY PUNCH NOTED TO BEGIN AT KCVG/KLUK 4-5Z. VFR SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXPECTED LULL THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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