Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220900 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH AN ACTIVE STORM PATTERN AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. MCS DROPPING THRU SE OHIO EXITING ILN/S FA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER FROM NRN IL THRU NRN INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THESE STORMS WHERE FORMING IN REGION OF PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. STORMS TO CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WESTERN OHIO WHERE MODERATE INSTBY WILL FEED STORMS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W MOVING FROM GREAT LAKES DROPS THRU OHIO VALLEY. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXIST OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND ADDITIONAL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. SO WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NW PORTION OF FA. EXPECT THIS NEXT REGION OF STORMS TO DROP THRU ILN/S WESTERN FA THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN REGION OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHERE PW/S WILL BE 170 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY BASED ON PCPN AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE HIGHS FROM MID 80S NE TO NEAR 90 SOUTHWEST. HEAT INDICES IN THE SW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN HWO PRODUCT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPS SE THRU ILNS FA AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING UP THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO PUSH SOUTH OF ILNS FA TONIGHT. IN MUGGY AIRMASS LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NE TO THE LOWER 70S SW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD A LTL EAST SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 100 ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH ILN/S AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH...A LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 AGAIN IN THE SW. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT FOR SUNDAY IN HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CARRYING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING. AFTER A LULL DURING LATE MORNING...MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE TYPICAL WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HUMID AND UNSETTLED REGIME. WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM EARLIER GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AS INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. COULD SEE MORE STRONG GUSTS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY RISES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>044-051>053-060>062-070-071. KY...NONE. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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