Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm weather conditions to the region. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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Another warm day looks likely this afternoon with 850 mb temperatures holding around 18 degrees C. Mid-level ridging that was over the Great Lakes will slowly push east this afternoon allowing low level 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses to drop to around 1420 m. Have taken Saturday high temperatures and shaved a degree off given the lower thicknesses and likely slightly cooler start.
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&& .SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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During the day Monday the 500 mb ridge will weaken as Hurricane Maria approaches from the south. At the same time an upper level low over the Mountain West will open up and eject northeast. For the Ohio Valley this means another day of highs in the upper 80s/ near 90 degrees. 850 mb temperatures and low level thicknesses support highs Monday almost identical to Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mid level ridging will continue to slowly weaken through the day on Tuesday but not before we see another dry day with unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will again push up into the upper 80s. The ridge will then flatten out through the day on Wednesday as a mid level trough works into the Great Lakes region and an associated cold front pushes through our area. Forcing is fairly weak though and moisture will remain limited. As a result, will mainly allow for just some slight chance pops to work into our northwest through the day. Instability is pretty meager so think thunder chances will also be limited. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s in the northwest to the mid and upper 80s across our southeast. Embedded short wave energy dropping down through the mid level trough will bring a better shot of cooler air into our area through the end of the week. The ECMWF is stronger with this feature, developing a closed 500 mb low and dropping it down across the eastern Great lakes through the weekend while the GFS is weaker and has more of a broader trough pivoting across the region. Will continue to go with a model blend for temperatures between the cooler ECMWF and the not as cool GFS through the end of the period. This will still allow for a significant airmass change with temperatures several degrees below normal through the end of the week. Pcpn chances will also depend on the strength of the trough/upper level low. For now will continue with some lower chance pops, primarily across the north on Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered to our northeast will all TAF sites VFR. Some local visibility restrictions at KLUK will again be possible thanks to some river fog. Otherwise VFR through the issuance is expected. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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