Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240536 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 136 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... As precipitation associated with a Great Lakes low stays north of the area, dry weather is forecast for tonight. The dry pattern is expected to continue Monday into Wednesday as high pressure builds from the northwest. Potent low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the likelihood for showers Wednesday night and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Low pressure near northeast Ohio this evening will quickly move east to a position off the southern New England coast by Monday morning. A trailing cold front will push southeast through the region during the early morning hours, followed by a surface trough. Focused moisture and lift in the form of a fairly decent low level jet will remain to our northeast near and to the left of the low track. Mainly clear skies can be expected through the early morning, eventually giving way to some scattered to perhaps local broken (central Ohio) stratocumulus in the wake of the surface trough. Lows will drop into the mid 40s northwest to near 50 far southeast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak low pressure will be near the New England coast Monday morning, with an extensive area of surface high pressure moving back in on on northwest upper flow. Dry weather is indicated Monday through Tuesday night when the high will be shifting slowly eastward. Though no showers are expected, clouds will increase Tuesday in isentropic lift well ahead of developing low pressure over the north central states. High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s Monday will be followed by lows in the mid 30s to around 40 Monday night, allowing patchy frost to form. Highs Tuesday recovering to the mid 50s to low 60s will be limited by the cool start and by the increasing cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Numerical model solutions continue to show a progressive mid level shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the solutions but Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain and have continued likely pops then. Wednesday`s high temperatures to range from the mid 50s north to the upper 60s south. Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs from the upper 50s north to the middle 60s south. Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a return to dry weather conditions. Highs to range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Model solns showing differences in strength and timing. Have held off any precipitation until late Saturday night. On warm side of this system and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs to range from the lower 60s far north to the upper 60s south. Will spread pops across the entire FA Saturday when the low and associated front is expected to impact the area. Have opted to go with more progressive solution ending precipitation Sunday but if the system is slower then pops will be required. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The low pressure that tracked through the Great Lakes region today is pulling away from the area, which will allow for a trailing cold front to push south through the terminals over the next several hours. Winds will veer more west-northwesterly and become a bit weaker by 12z for the TAF sites. Model soundings continue to indicate the development of post frontal stratocu after 09z behind the surface trough moving through the area. Cloud heights should remain in the MVFR category with CIG potential being confined to eastern sites of KCMH and KLCK. There exists the potential that CIGs could briefly approach IFR at KCMH and KLCK between 10-14z, but lack of confidence on this potential inhibited inclusion in the TAFs at the present time. Throughout the day, surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes region, allowing the morning MVFR stratocu to lift to a FEW/SCT VFR clouds by afternoon. With high pressure settling into the region, winds are expected to lessen and veer more north-northeasterly after 00z Tuesday. Some mid/high clouds will stream in from the west towards the end of the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.