Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 171420
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
920 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will
affect the area today. Drier weather is forecast Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Another
low pressure system will bring showers back into the region late
Thursday through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cdfnt is pushing through the Whitewater valley into the Miami
Valley attm. Upped PoPs with the line of showers along the front
to categorical. The line should continue to push east through the
fa late this morning, clearing the eastern counties around 18-20Z.
Afternoon highs in the upper 50s to around 60, temperatures will
slowly cool with fropa on a west wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be moving into the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight while low pressure moves slowly through southeast
Canada. At the same time, low pressure in the upper atmosphere
will travel from southern Lake Michigan to northwest Ohio, keeping
a chance of showers in the forecast.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry conditions will persist into
Thursday when the high is forecast to move to the Appalachians.
The next area of low pressure will be arriving from the southwest
later on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of
showers to southern locations by Thursday evening.
Temperatures will remain above normal. Highs Wednesday will be
reduced into the 40s by cold advection. A rebound to near 50 will
occur Thursday due to warm advection in advance of the next low.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail
through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it
pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio
Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in
the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into
Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much
above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper
low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then
turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot
rule out a bit of thunder as well.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and associated sfc low to track northeast
across the Great Lakes today. This will allow southward trailing
cold front to sweep east across all TAF sites from midday through
early this afternoon. Expect mainly MVFR CIGS through the morning.
Initial wave of showers associated with low level jet and warm
front moving through central Ohio. After this wave moves through
pcpn chances diminish with the best threat in a limited period
with the frontal passage. Due to marginal elevated instability
a rumble of thunder is not out of the question but due to limited
coverage have omitted mention from the fcst.
Due to low level jet, low level wind shear will also be possible
early this morning but this appears marginal at best for a few
hours early, so have left out the mention of LLWS.
Expect MVFR CIGS to persist into the afternoon with CIGS dropping
to IFR overnight.
In the wake of the front, winds will veer to the west and gust up
to 22 kts this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.