Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221331 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 931 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. this ridge will offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. This will result in period of storms to form through the weekend due to the high levels of moisture. The chance for precipitation increases early next week with the expected passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a subtle boundary across parts of central and west-central Ohio early this morning. Expect that convection will increase as boundary shifts southeast through the morning and afternoon hours, especially as environment becomes increasingly unstable. To account for this, have raised PoPs across the area, with peak coverage expected during the afternoon. There is some concern that with thick cirrus expanding eastward into area, combined with developing shower and thunderstorm activity, that high temps are too high for today. Nevertheless, with uncertainty in precip coverage and evolution, confidence didn`t warrant making sweeping changes at this time. Therefore, have not made any changes to existing heat headlines.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Possible ongoing MCS to start the evening expected to drop south- southeast across ILN/s FA and weaken this evening. Remainder of the night should be mainly dry but can not rule out stray pcpn. Warm and humid conditions to continue with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Difficult to pin point timing and placement of convection Saturday and sunday. Have a mention of 40 percent both aftns with the best threat across the north closer to warm front. Heat continues with highs in the lower 90s on both Saturday and Sunday. Given high dewpoints...heat indices above 100 likely Saturday afternoon and possibly again Sunday. For now...have continue heat headlines for Saturday but these headlines may have to be extended into Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Monday an upper level low will swing east across the Hudson Bay bringing a weak front across the area. Surface convergence is weak along the front and timing between the GFS and ECMWF is slightly out of phase. The ECMWF is slightly faster than the GFS with the GFS bringing the front through Tuesday morning. The ECMWF bring the front through Monday evening. Have leaned towards the ECMWF here. Behind the front much drier air will filter in with PWATs less than 1.00". This will help to bring a temporary end in the precip until Thursday. At the end of extended Thursday another shortwave will approach the area bringing the chance of rain back to the area. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect VFR to continue except at LUK where BR may reduce visibility early Saturday. Otherwise, sky cover consists mainly of cirrus to start. Models are not handling current convection very well so forecast is more difficult than average. Thunderstorms to the west and northeast may not directly affect TAF sites. Additional convection may develop by afternoon peak heating so have included VCTS at all sites. Timing is hard to predict due to model uncertainty. Expect mainly clear skies after sunset as thunderstorms diminish with loss of daytime heating. Winds will generally be out of the west to southwest, with speeds 12 knots or less. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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