Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 021736 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 136 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME SCATTERING OUT IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE CINCINNATI AREA. FURTHER CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAST...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE UPSTREAM CLEARING OVER KENTUCKY IS LIKELY TO WORK IN. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN THIS CLEARED AREA...WITH KHTS ALREADY UP TO 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WHERE THICK CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE. THIS WILL PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR NORTH (WAPAKONETA) AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PORTSMOUTH). A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE AN INDICATION THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE CWA RIGHT NOW. A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...BUT SOME RAIN APPEARS TO BE A NEAR-CERTAINTY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (LEWIS AND SCIOTO) WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD WORK INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY. THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FCST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5 LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO 70 SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN LIFTING...AND SHOULD BECOME VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY...AND IS LIKELY TO AVOID THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE AIRPORTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...AND THUS SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT...DROPPING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 2000 FEET. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ON TUESDAY...BUT PERHAPS NOT VERY QUICKLY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...SWITCHING FROM WESTERLY / NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO NORTHERLY / NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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