Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242056 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 356 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will track into the Great Lakes tonight while its associated cold front sweeps east across the Ohio Valley. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as the cold front moves through. High pressure will gradually build back into the region late Saturday night into Sunday. More seasonable temperatures will spread into the area for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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It has been a record breaking day in terms of high temperatures across the region. All three major climate stations (KDAY, KCVG, and KCMH) have broken their all time February highs. In addition, KCMH has broke their all time meteorological winter high (December, January, and February), while KCVG has tied their all time meteorological winter high. Please refer to RER report products for more information and for the final high temperature numbers. For tonight, focus remains on the potential for severe weather across the region as low pressure tracks toward Lake Huron while its attendant cold front sweeps east across the region. Convection to our west over Indiana still remains somewhat elevated. In addition, the airmass over our area is still slightly capped and somewhat mixed out in the low levels, which has lowered boundary layer moisture some from projected forecasts. With dynamic energy rounding the base of a large scale trough, and with large scale ascent taking place this evening, cap should erode, allowing thunderstorms to develop and move into our western zones. High resolution models continue to indicate that these storms may eventually merge amongst themselves while the cold front and any convection along its boundary catches up. Potential still exists for some rotating storms which will pose large hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat is still there but will depend largely how much the boundary layer remains linked to the atmosphere above into the evening hours. Severe threat will then tend toward more of a damaging wind threat as the convection tries to form a qlcs structure across our eastern zones. In any case, thunderstorms are expected to exit our far east between 1 am EST and 4 am EST. A dry slot (i.e. sinking air and lack of deep moisture) is still expected late tonight in the wake of frontal passage. Lows will be set by morning as CAA takes place and continues into Saturday. They should range from the mid 30s west to the upper 40s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Parent large scale mid level trough is expected to pass across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday. CAA will result in slowly falling temperatures through the day. A few instability rain/and or snow showers may occur, but should end by Saturday evening. It will be brisk, but winds do not look as gusty as previously forecast. Gusts should be more in the 30 to 35 mph range. For Saturday night, mid level trough will exit to the east. Surface high pressure will gradually build into the Ohio Valley late. CAA stratocumulus will linger through at least early morning, with clearing expected from southwest to northwest late. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Period will begin with high pressure centered just to the south of the fa in se KY. Skies will be mostly sunny, but temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Model continue with their differences for Sunday night into Monday with how quickly pcpn returns on the backside of the high. The GFS is slowed down it`s pcpn from yesterday and is concentrating across southern sections. The CMC hemispheric and NAM are showing similar solutions, while the ECMWF remains dry. Trended the forecast towards the consensus solution. Temps and thicknesses are low enuf that the pcpn should fall as a rain snow mix. This first shot of pcpn slips e on Monday, before a more substantial area of pcpn lifts up into the region during the later half of Monday night. A warm front lifting through the region will keep temperatures warm enough for all rain. The best rain chances on Tuesday will be in the morning. Well above normal temperatures will return as highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Pcpn chance taper down during Tuesday aftn, then a cold front will swing through the region on Wednesday. Showers and possibly a thunderstorms (around the Ohio River) will develop Tuesday night and will last into Wednesday until fropa. Highs on Wednesday will probably be early with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Northwest flow develops for the end of the week, which should bring back more seasonable temperatures. In the fast flow, the models are having timing difference with embedded vort maxs. Ran a blend of the solutions to have chance PoPs during the time frame.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The forecast area will be firmly in the warm sector ahead of deepening low pressure and a cold front to our west this afternoon. Scattered cumulus with increasing mid/high clouds can be expected. Winds will be gusty from the south in the upper 20s to lower 30s knots. For tonight, focus turns to the low pressure system and an attendant cold front that is expected to sweep east across the terminals. Widespread showers and the likelihood of thunderstorms remains decent. Have included an MVFR conditional TEMPO group for the best time frame to expect convection. As is typical with thunderstorms, local IFR visibilities may occur within the strongest thunderstorm cores. Region will eventually become "dry slotted" late tonight behind frontal passage. Ceilings should remain in the VFR range in the dry slot until Saturday morning. On Saturday, parent upper level trough will move east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. MVFR post frontal stratocumulus can be expected. Ceilings will lower to MVFR at first before rising back above VFR late in the day. A few rain and/or snow showers will be possible, mainly near the northern terminals as some post frontal instability will be in place. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman/Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hickman

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