Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 282337 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 737 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN PRIMARILY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITIES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM REMAINS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS WITH ITS INSTABILITIES...BUT BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SINCE FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK...THINK ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED AND WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA...IN THE AREA OF SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITIES. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC RUN TO RUN BEHAVIOR AND SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY. TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES...HAVE USED A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS AND RELIED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE THE 28.00Z ECMWF RUN FEATURED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MORPHING INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z ECMWF RUN IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY AND MUCH MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...SHOWING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER AN AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH IS WHEN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO AROUND 400MB. FORECAST DETAILS START TO BECOME MURKY AS A RESULT. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE LACKING BUT GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND MOISTURE /HIGH TEMPS 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MAINLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE CIRRUS TONIGHT...WITH CUMULUS FORMING AFTER 12Z AS THE BROAD AREA OF WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CLOSES IN. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST BECAUSE TAF SITES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS AS DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MODEST CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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