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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 182328
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
728 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL FOCUS ON TWO FEATURES THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE FIRST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SECOND...AN UPR LVL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. MODELS
ARE NOT SHOWING OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...BUT BEST ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR SW CWFA (TRI-STATE) WILL HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE FROM THE UPR
LVL WX DISTURBANCE. ALL IN ALL...HAVE POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ATTM
AND WILL SEE IF COVERAGE INCREASES TO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WITH
MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STILL APPEARS SLATED FOR OUR SWRN
CWFA GIVEN THE REASON MENTIONED ABOVE. LATE TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTH AND COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FAR NORTH TO
THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE OR WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE NORMALS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER...SHELTERED
LOCATIONS OF OUR NORTH AND EAST...TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BRING TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS AND WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHING EXITS THE EAST COAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE DAY.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD. COMPUTER
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERLIKE LOOK WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SETTING UP (ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MINOR DETAILS). JET STREAM WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE DIFFERING IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND/OR MCS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH
THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION...BUT CARRIED A 20-30 POP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHETHER STORMS ULTIMATELY END UP DEVELOPING OR
ARE ADVECTED IN. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT OF
A BUILDING RIDGE TO LIMIT POPS TO 20...WITH A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONGLY CAPPED WE ARE. BY
TUESDAY...OUR HEIGHTS BEGIN LOWERING AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ON
THE INCREASE. THEREFORE BROUGHT POPS BACK UP TO 30 FOR EVERYONE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE ENTIRE SATURDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY. HIGHS WILL BE 85-90...LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...WITH FAIRLY MUGGY DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SAGGING SOUTH OF OUR
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE ONLY KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK
THROUGH 01Z. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT OF AROUND 5 TO
10 KT SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KLUK. AT KLUK...LIGHTER FLOW IN THE RIVER VALLEY COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS UNDER 10
KT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...LATTO