Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171045 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, increasing southerly flow will bring moisture into the Ohio Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms chances will increase today ahead of a cold front which moves across the area tonight. Drier and cooler conditions are expected on Friday, as high pressure moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level shortwave and associated surface low pressure to lift northeast across the Great Lakes today. Southward trailing surface cold front to sweep east across ILN/s FA tonight. Favorable moisture transport with with an axis of precipitable water values of 2 to 2.2 inches advecting into the area by afternoon. Favorable warm cloud depth along with this moisture rich environment will lead to heavy rain producing storms and the potential for localized flooding. Moderate instability of 2000-2500 MLCAPE values fcst this afternoon in the warm sector. This instability combined with 0-6 km shear of 30-35 kts will lead to organized storm development. Storms look to organize on a pre-frontal trough this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat with the best chance for severe weather over west central Ohio this afternoon where the most favorable shear/instby will overlap. Will continue to highlight this severe weather and flood potential in the HWO product. Temperatures will continue above normal in the warm sector with highs from the mid 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Ongoing storms this evening along pre-frontal trof with moderate instability over the area. Thunderstorms will propagate east across ILN/s area with a few strong/severe storms possible this evening. Actual cold front does not move through until late tonight, so a few showers/thunderstorms could linger until the passage. Low temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Mid level s/w to pivot from the northern Great Lakes into southern Canada with westerly flow across the Ohio Valley Friday. In the post frontal environment surface high pressure to build east into the region late in the day. This will allow for decreasing clouds. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal, with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s, && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday night will have dry weather under a ridge of high pressure. A rather potent short wave traveling across the Great Lakes on Saturday may trigger a few thunderstorms, mainly in northern locations. An extensive area of surface high pressure under a westerly flow aloft will become the dominant weather pattern for Sunday and Monday. Sunday is expected to be dry, while isolated thunderstorms may occur in southern counties Monday due to increasing humidity/instability in the anticyclonic circulation around the surface high. For Tuesday, convergence and lift associated with a cold front will produce a good chance for thunderstorms. Chances diminish Wednesday in drier air behind the front. Mainly above normal temperatures will be evident through the period, with highs reaching the 80s each day. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Southwest low level jet of 25 to 30 kts was resulting in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning. This axis of lift will pivot north through the TAF sites early this morning. These storms will bring brief MVFR vsbys and cigs. After the passage of this initial axis of convection expect mainly VFR conditions through the remainder of the morning. Better coverage of storms is expected to occur this afternoon as moderate instability and pre-frontal trof axis moves into the region. MVFR to brief IFR vsbys possible in these storms. Storms to end late this evening with the front pushing east through the area overnight. As clouds diminish fog and stratus development will be possible toward daybreak Friday. At this time have just a mention of MVFR visibilities but IFR CIGs are not out of the question in the mixed boundary layer. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts today. OUTLOOK...Fog and possible status to improve Friday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio/Sites AVIATION...AR

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