Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 210943 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 443 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AND WHERE THEY HAVE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECT MORE DISSIPATING OF THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KCMH AND KLCK. HAVE AT LEAST MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AT ALL THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND IFR VSBYS AT KCVG...KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN. WITH KCMH AND KLCK EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO KCMH AND KLCK DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND HAVE KCMH AND KLCK RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.