Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011617 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1217 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO OHIO TODAY. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE OHIO RIVER HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED OUT OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER RADAR ECHOES WITHIN AN AREA OF THICK LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH PATCHES OF STRATUS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT APPEAR UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DEPART THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A PART IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED TODAY...AN IMPORTANT KEY TO THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL TIMING AND INTENSITY EXPECTATIONS STILL FAR FROM A NICE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND SREF PROBABILITIES...IF TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SBCAPE OF 1200-1800 J/KG WILL BE ATTAINABLE. IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT...THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE PERHAPS SHOWN THE MOST PROMISE IN ALIGNING BEST WITH THE OBSERVED SURFACE PATTERN. ALONG A WEAK AND NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE. LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK. DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS MORE NOTABLE (45-50 KNOTS)...WHICH WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG (TO POSSIBLY SEVERE) STORMS. SINCE DESTABILIZATION IS ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THE DAY...A ADDITIONAL KILN SOUNDING WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 17Z...IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE EARLY AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE ON GOING FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE FILLING H5 TROF LIFTS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SW TO NE AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAD DROPPED INTO SRN KY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT WILL PUSH PCPN INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S HOWEVER. H5 ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH. DIGGING TROF DEVELOPS INTO DEEP LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE SOME EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LARGE LOW. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR DRY SOLN SATURDAY. TEMP WISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW...BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. READINGS WILL ONLY MODERATE A LTL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL...AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THUNDER COULD BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS IF NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MORE LIKELY FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS (POSSIBLY IFR) WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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