Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230532 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. This ridge will offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. Weak disturbances along with the heat and humidity will bring scattered showers and storms. A stronger cold front will push through Monday with more showers and storms. Slightly cooler and less humid air will settle in behind the front for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A boundary will wash out across the area overnight. Cloud cover has decreased and will continue to decrease across the area. Winds will continue to decrease and be light. Lots of areas received decent rainfall earlier today as well. Due to a combination of these factors added in patchy fog and in some locations areas of fog. Dry conditions are expected through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Not expecting a repeat of amount of convection for Saturday. With this in mind and expected high temps and dewpoints have continued with heat headlines Saturday. While not meeting 2 consecutive days of heat indices of 100 at Cincy and Dayton due to the clouds and convection today will not fall back to advisory and cause any confusion that it might not be as hot. Another hot and humid day for Sunday. Again some uncertainty of convection and numbers not meeting heat criteria headlines so will hold off any heat headlines for Sunday for now. Have tweaked pops down a bit for Saturday as models focusing more widespread convection to north and west of fcst area. Still think widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening activity should occur with the heat and humidity in place and any possible boundaries around. Have kept chance pops in for Sunday with models indicating a bit better prospect especially across the north and west. Temps near guidance for Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early Monday morning upper level ridging will nudge west as an upper level low over Ontario pushes east allowing for weak mid-level flow over the region. Monday afternoon a weak surface cold front will push into the area helping to act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms. PWATs Monday are forecasted to be around 2.00" with ML CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Given these elevated moisture values and weak instability have raised PoPs. The cold front will then stall just south of the Ohio river Tuesday morning (ECMWF and GFS in good agreement). Behind the cold front PWATs fall to below 0.75" while ahead of the front PWATS remain above 1.50". GFS forecast soundings for KCVG show PWATs remaining elevated while quickly falling at KCMH. For now have just bumped PoPs up across the south Tuesday. Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south of the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front though 850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees C so am expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave will approach the area from the west finally washing the leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher PWATs will again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in. Have trended PoPs up towards the end of the long term to account for this. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Conditions are VFR to start. FG may reduce visibility this morning at LUK and BR may do the same at ILN in a very humid airmass. Light wind at other sites may keep visibility P6SM. Sky cover will consist of cirrus circulating around an upper high centered to the west, and a FEW to SCT cumulus that form mainly during daylight hours. Thunderstorms are not forecast at this time due to weak forcing though we have an unstable airmass. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ061- 077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Padgett NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Padgett LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Coniglio

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