Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261747 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. High pressure will provide dry weather at midweek with increasing precipitation chances toward the end of the week as temperatures warm to near normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Shortwave trof over northern WI to drop se into the mean trof position over southern lower MI this evening. Marginal instby develops late this afternoon into early evening over west central Ohio. Will continue very low pop chance into the west late in the day. Latest visible satl imagery showing diurnal cumulus cloud development. This trend will continue with a good deal of cloud cover during the afternoon. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Out ahead of the s/w, a 30-35kt low level jet will combine with 500-1000 J/kg of lingering CAPE cape this evening to support showers and thunderstorms dropping e from Indiana. Expect the convection to be scattered in nature as it works across the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. Precipitation could be lingering in the southeast early Tuesday, but will move e into the Appalachians by mid morning. Tuesday afternoon will be dry with highs again in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry high pressure is expected to remain in control of the weather Tuesday night through early Thursday, influencing conditions through the middle part of the week. With a turning of winds to the south on Wednesday, a more appreciable warmup will begin, with temperatures returning to the 80s. As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower confidence -- especially in precipitation timing near the end of the week and into the weekend. There is agreement that a frontal zone will set up east-to-west across the southern Great Lakes beginning early Thursday, with the ILN CWA in the warm sector within solid deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection develops at the north end of this warm sector, and along the frontal area, there will eventually be some propagation downstream which should impact the ILN CWA -- likely beginning on Thursday afternoon, and then again as additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How much of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact position of the front. However, model runs have trended a little southward with precipitation chances, increasing the probability for storms in the ILN CWA on Thursday and Friday (especially in the northern half of the CWA). PoPs have been increased slightly through this time period, but with little change to temperatures, as there is confidence in continued southwesterly flow through the period. In addition, with ample instability and at least somewhat favorable deep-layer shear, some strong to severe storms could be possible on Thursday and Friday. Differences in the evolution of an upstream trough going into the weekend will preclude more than very low confidence in the forecast Saturday into Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level shortwave to drop se into the mean trof position over southern lower MI this evening. A good deal of VFR cumulus clouds around 5000 feet have developed across the TAF sites this afternoon. Marginal instby develops late this afternoon into early evening over west central Ohio. A threat of showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm to move across the TAF sites this evening. Due to low expected coverage, and with marginal instability which diminishes, have limited any mention in the TAF forecasts to VCSH. Clouds will diminish with skies clearing out late tonight in as subsidence behind the upper shortwave combines with a building surface high pressure system to the west. Expect continued VFR conditions on Tuesday with only afternoon cumulus clouds developing. WNW winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 kts tonight. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos/Sites AVIATION...AR

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