Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251059 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 659 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO A POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CLOUDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN EMBEDDED S/WV WHICH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS VLY TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT WILL COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE CONVERGENT AXIS IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND NCEP/ESRL HRRR RUNS...LIKELY POPS ARE PROBABLY NEEDED FOR THE FAR WRN ZONES FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AND A MORE MIXED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD TRANSITION THE PLUME OF MOISTURE (AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS) TO A SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION AS IT HEADS EAST. ANOTHER WEATHER ELEMENT TO CONSIDER TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH FAR NORTHWEST WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS (AROUND 20 MPH) IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...MOST AREA SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND AVAILABLE HIGH RES/CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS EVENING AS S/WV AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS PIVOT NORTH AND EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED MORE TO OUR SRN ZONES. BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. FOR TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER EMBEDDED S/WV IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONVERGENT AXIS. THE DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES) WILL INTERACT WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PART OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT IT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO OBTAIN LOW END MODERATE SHEAR/LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO..GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW. THE FLOW IS MODEST IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SO IF SOME STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLE SEVERE GUSTS...MAY OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR IN THE HWO. FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV MOVES NORTHEAST FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE A DIURNAL MIN IN CONVECTION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER UPTICK DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WINDS AT 925MB /2KFT/ ARE 45KT ON AREA RADAR VAD WIND PROFILERS THIS MORNING SO BORDERLINE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BUT SO FAR WIND SHEAR COMING UP JUST SHY OF CRITERIA GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. NO DOUBT SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH THIS LAYER THOUGH BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT BY 13Z OR SO. WHEN THIS OCCURS SURFACE GUSTS WILL COME UP AND HAVE GUSTS TOWARD 30KTS ESP WRN TAF SITES LIKE DAY/CVG/ILN. WINDS SHOULD BACK OFF A LITTLE BY AFTN AS LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT. PLUME OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL JUST GRAZE CVG/LUK/DAY THIS MORNING SO INDICATED P6SM -SHRA IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...THEN A LULL...THEN SCT SHRA THIS AFTERNOON IN PEAK HEATING IN ALL LOCATIONS AS AREAS IS GRAZED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAY BE SOME THUNDER BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. PLENTY OF VFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOIST PLUME IN SWLY FLOW. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY LATE TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST TRENDED SOME LIGHT MIST /BR/ AT LUK WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...BINAU

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