Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 291808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
208 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today providing
dry weather and decreasing clouds. Low pressure will push into
the region on Thursday, offering showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the work week. High pressure will settle in
over the weekend returning dry conditions and near seasonable
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
West-northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure
building se across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Latest IR satellite shows considerable low clouds across the
region but some holes. Numerical model solutions keep the low
level moisture trapped below a low level inversion through most
of the morning. These clouds to diminish from northeast to
southwest late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be
around one category above normal with highs ranging from the
mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid/upper level ridge to build over the region tonight ahead of
upper low developing in the central plains. Models continue a
little slower with precipitation which looks reasonable in this
amplified flow pattern. Will allow for an increase in clouds
late. Mild Lows tonight will range from the upper lows extreme
northeast to near 50 southwest.
Mid/upper level flow backs as low pressure tracks from the
central plains into the Mid MS Vly Thursday. In waa pattern a
few showers will be possible early Thursday. Best instability
stays to our sw, but an axis of instability works into the
southwest Thursday afternoon. There appears to be a window with
the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon into
evening, when 50-55 kt low level jet will provide good axis of
lift, which coincides with this instability. 0-6 km Bulk shear
suggests organized storms possible and low level shear is
favorable but LCL heights are high. Will mention this severe
potential over ILN/s southwest counties in HWO product. The main
threats at this time are damaging winds and large hail. Warm
temperatures to continue Thursday with highs from the lower 60s
far north to the mid/upper 70s far south.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A broad upper ridge featuring above normal geopotential heights will
generally be in place through the period. However, the ridge will be
interrupted by a couple of vigorous troughs that will produce
Potent low pressure will be moving to Indiana Thursday night,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible in an environment containing ample moisture,
instability and wind fields. Though severe weather chances will
diminish Friday as the vertically stacked low tracks slowly to the
Central Appalachians, showers will linger in the moist cyclonic
circulation around the low pressure system.
High pressure at the surface and aloft is indicated for Saturday and
Sunday, resulting in a dry weekend. The next area of low pressure
due to arrive Monday is forecast to bring more showers and
thunderstorms, with showers lingering on Tuesday behind the low
Above normal temperatures are expected for the most part, with highs
generally in the 60s. Saturday may be the exception, when highs are
forecast to be slightly below normal, in the mid and upper 50s under
modest cold advection.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Stratus near and south of the Ohio River this afternoon will
continue to lift and eventually mix out through 00Z. Some
lingering MVFR ceilings will continue at KCVG/KLUK/KILN until
full mixing is complete.
For tonight, a warm front will move northeast toward our region.
We should see an increase in mid and high level clouds at first.
Then as warm, moist advection continues, clouds may lower into
MVFR late. Some showers will also be possible ahead of the
front, but coverage appears low at this time to not mention yet
as a VCSH.
For Thursday, a vigorous upper level low will rotate northeast
from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi River Valley.
As this occurs, warm front will continue to move from south to
north through the forecast area. Again, a few showers will be
possible as this occurs. By afternoon, it is unclear per high
resolution models how much shower/thunderstorm activity will
encroach our west given weakening trend as the precipitation
propagates from its original source region. So, have kept the
TAFs dry at this time. Winds will become gusty from the south
given a tightening pressure gradient and some momentum transfer
of stronger winds aloft. Gusts should be in the 25 knot to 30
knot range during peak heating.
A better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Thursday night as showers/storms develop ahead of a cold front,
pushing east through the area overnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Thursday
into Friday evening. Thunderstorms likely Thursday night. MVFR
to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.
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