Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242029 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 429 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY GET SUPPRESSED SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT SO THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL SEEM LIMITED. SO WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...THE CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE RAIN REMAINS QUITE LOW. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THEN START TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS SHADED TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS WHILE LOWS STAYED NEAR MOS BLEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY AND THIS LONG TERM FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z ECMWF. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FED INTO THE FA WITH ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED. GOING WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER TUESDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO HAVE EXITED MOST OF THE FA. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY. CONTINUED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREA OF LOWER VFR/MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA HAS GENERALLY BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND GENERALLY JUST ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PREVALENT THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS SO IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH SOME LIFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS WORKING IN WITH THE FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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