Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 071438 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH NRN IN BACK INTO CENTRAL IL ATTM. STILL A FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVENTIONAL MODELS HANDLING BOUNDARY PROGRESSION FAILRY WELL...WITH TIMING OF THE GFS PREFERRED...BUT OF COURSE THE NON-CAM MODELS POORLY HANDLING THE RESULTING CONVECTION. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON A RAP/HRRR COMBINATION. THESE FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN FCST AREA WHERE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LL CONVERGENCE RESIDES. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...AND WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA NOT SHOWING MUCH LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING WITH SHOWERS AND NOT JUST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 18-00Z TIMEFRAME NEARLY ALONG/NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR...THEN FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE A MARGINAL THREAT EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS UNDER MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND CANT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE WET MICROBURST TYPE STORM...MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000M OR MORE AND EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...HAVE TWEAKED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT DOWNWARD AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE PERSISTENTLY MOIST REGIME. CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. ANOTHER RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY. THOUGH THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLE FLOODING IN HWO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A REGIME OF CLOUDS... PRECIP AND OCCASIONAL COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 NORTH TO 80 SOUTH. THE TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS VARYING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT STARTS TO RETROGRADE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME VESTIGE OF IT COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY WHICH WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A LOW INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY TO START DROPPING BACK ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOIST SWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS. THESE CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO KILN AND KCMH/KLCK EARLY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH DOWN INTO OHIO TONIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN. SCTD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF T HIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET. BEST COVERAGE OF THESE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SW TAF SITES. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AT KCVG/KLUK. HAVE TEMPO GROUP AT EACH TAF SITE FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS. IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP FCST IN MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WINDS FROM THE SW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR

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