Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271738 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 138 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the mid Atlantic coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Based on latest hrrr model and mesoscale analysis, it appears our forecast area will be in a min in terms of shower/thunderstorm chances this afternoon due to the lack of any significant mid level disturbances and/or low level boundaries. It looks like there could still be a mid to late afternoon pop up shower or storm, but this may be less than 15 percent in terms of measurable precipitation. Have made this adjustment. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are expected this afternoon with warm and humid conditions. highs will be in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Appears that some energy from subtropical low that will impact the southeast will shear north into the region over the weekend. This forcing will help provide a better chance for precipitation area wide, especially Saturday into Saturday evening. With the onset of any precipitation potentially earlier in the day along with more cloud cover, expect highs a bit lower than today. There could still be some storms on Sunday in the eastern counties from this sheared energy. But there also could be some showers and storms in the western counties in advance of a weak cold front. Forecast is generally closer to cooler guidance each period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A short wave lifting northeast through the Great Lakes will result in a weak cold front pushing through the area Sunday night into Monday. Upper support is moving away from the area and instability will be decreasing as the front moves in. So chance of precipitation will be diminishing through the evening even with the front moving in. High pressure will build in later Monday and continue to extend across the area on Tuesday. This will result in slightly lower humidity along with little if any chance of rain. A deep trough will develop and then move out of the Plains late in the week. This will bring another cold front into the region with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms along it. Temperatures slightly above normal will persist. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level ridging will continue to extend from the mid Atlantic coast into the upper Ohio valley through Saturday. Our terminals will be in a lull this afternoon and tonight in terms of the threat for showers/storms, with an isolated possibility existing southeast of the terminals late this afternoon into this evening. Diurnal cumulus should give way to some mid and high clouds overnight. Some river fog is expected again at KLUK and have placed a TEMPO 1/2 mile between 08Z and 12Z. On Saturday, low to mid level flow will continue from the south. There still looks to be a lack of any strong forcing. Thus, some scattered showers/storms could still develop in the heat of the day, perhaps aided by any weak disturbance rippling through the flow. Have added a VCSH at the 30 hour KCVG terminal to account for this. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.