Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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980 FXUS61 KILN 291808 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 208 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Great Lakes today providing dry weather and decreasing clouds. Low pressure will push into the region on Thursday, offering showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week. High pressure will settle in over the weekend returning dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... West-northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure building se across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Latest IR satellite shows considerable low clouds across the region but some holes. Numerical model solutions keep the low level moisture trapped below a low level inversion through most of the morning. These clouds to diminish from northeast to southwest late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures will be around one category above normal with highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Mid/upper level ridge to build over the region tonight ahead of upper low developing in the central plains. Models continue a little slower with precipitation which looks reasonable in this amplified flow pattern. Will allow for an increase in clouds late. Mild Lows tonight will range from the upper lows extreme northeast to near 50 southwest. Mid/upper level flow backs as low pressure tracks from the central plains into the Mid MS Vly Thursday. In waa pattern a few showers will be possible early Thursday. Best instability stays to our sw, but an axis of instability works into the southwest Thursday afternoon. There appears to be a window with the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon into evening, when 50-55 kt low level jet will provide good axis of lift, which coincides with this instability. 0-6 km Bulk shear suggests organized storms possible and low level shear is favorable but LCL heights are high. Will mention this severe potential over ILN/s southwest counties in HWO product. The main threats at this time are damaging winds and large hail. Warm temperatures to continue Thursday with highs from the lower 60s far north to the mid/upper 70s far south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A broad upper ridge featuring above normal geopotential heights will generally be in place through the period. However, the ridge will be interrupted by a couple of vigorous troughs that will produce precipitation events. Potent low pressure will be moving to Indiana Thursday night, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in an environment containing ample moisture, instability and wind fields. Though severe weather chances will diminish Friday as the vertically stacked low tracks slowly to the Central Appalachians, showers will linger in the moist cyclonic circulation around the low pressure system. High pressure at the surface and aloft is indicated for Saturday and Sunday, resulting in a dry weekend. The next area of low pressure due to arrive Monday is forecast to bring more showers and thunderstorms, with showers lingering on Tuesday behind the low center. Above normal temperatures are expected for the most part, with highs generally in the 60s. Saturday may be the exception, when highs are forecast to be slightly below normal, in the mid and upper 50s under modest cold advection. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Stratus near and south of the Ohio River this afternoon will continue to lift and eventually mix out through 00Z. Some lingering MVFR ceilings will continue at KCVG/KLUK/KILN until full mixing is complete. For tonight, a warm front will move northeast toward our region. We should see an increase in mid and high level clouds at first. Then as warm, moist advection continues, clouds may lower into MVFR late. Some showers will also be possible ahead of the front, but coverage appears low at this time to not mention yet as a VCSH. For Thursday, a vigorous upper level low will rotate northeast from the southern Plains to the middle Mississippi River Valley. As this occurs, warm front will continue to move from south to north through the forecast area. Again, a few showers will be possible as this occurs. By afternoon, it is unclear per high resolution models how much shower/thunderstorm activity will encroach our west given weakening trend as the precipitation propagates from its original source region. So, have kept the TAFs dry at this time. Winds will become gusty from the south given a tightening pressure gradient and some momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft. Gusts should be in the 25 knot to 30 knot range during peak heating. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected Thursday night as showers/storms develop ahead of a cold front, pushing east through the area overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Thursday into Friday evening. Thunderstorms likely Thursday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman

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