Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 142051 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 351 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will build into the region early tonight before a weak surface low tracks through the Great Lakes region Friday. A weak cold front will brush the area Friday before surface ridging returns Friday night. Persistent southwesterly flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... The low stratus deck that has lingered through most of the afternoon is finally showing signs of breaking, yielding a mix of sun and clouds in both the northern and southern quarter of the FA (north of I-70 and near and south of the Ohio River), with still a bit of clouds through the center of the area. Nevertheless, with the extensive cloud cover through the first handful of heating hours, temperatures have largely been held close to morning lows thus far (with rises only noted in last couple of hours). This being said, with the gradual decrease in clouds through the late afternoon hours, highs may be hit late this afternoon before beginning to fall once again this evening. Mid/high clouds will continue to stream eastward into the heart of the Ohio Valley tonight into early Friday, but tranquil weather conditions are anticipated during this period. Although winds should be light, the effects of a pretty thick layer of mid and high clouds should prevent keep temperatures from falling too much. Went close to guidance for lows ranging from the mid teens in central and west-central Ohio to around 20 degrees in northern Kentucky. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, a mid-level S/W and attendant weak surface low will track through the Great Lakes region, with most of the appreciable impacts remaining north/northeast of the ILN FA. Nevertheless, some isolated to scattered flurries and light snow showers may reach far enough south/southeast to clip the far north/northeast portions of the ILN FA during the afternoon hours. As such, added slight chance and chance PoPs to account for this potential -- but think that accumulation, if any, will be a dusting at most. Cloud cover will be most expansive north of the Ohio River during the day on Friday, with some sunshine anticipated near the river and points southward. With the anticipated cloud cover (or lack thereof), went slightly below guidance in the north and slightly above guidance in the south. A tightening surface pressure gradient will yield a gradual increase in the west-southwesterly flow Friday afternoon, with gusts to 20-25 kts possible during the afternoon. Winds will subside toward the late evening hours as a surface ridge axis begins to translate west to east across the region towards the end of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad mid level ridging to our southwest with surface front lifting north into the southern Great Lakes Saturday. Southerly low level flow develops Saturday with temperatures warming a little above normal. Expect highs Saturday to range from the upper 30s north to the upper 40s south. In waa pattern moisture spreading back into the area Sunday. Will spread likely to high chance pops into the region. Thermal features suggest a mix of rain and snow at the onset changing to mainly a rain event. Sundays temperatures to run a little above normal with highs from 40 to 45. In split flow regime model solutions differ on phasing and timing of pcpn. Will follow a progressive soln with pcpn ending during the day Monday and then re-introduce a slight chc late Monday night into early Tuesday with mean trof developing across the Great Lakes. Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Monday and Tuesdays highs ranging from the the lower/mid 40s north to around 50 south. In northwest flow regime surface high pressure to build into the region at mid week. This high will offer dry weather with the next chance of rain holding off until Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Reading warm above normal Thursday with highs of 45 to 50. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The MVFR deck that has persisted over the region continues to slowly drift south without much in the way of breaks or erosion on either the northern or southern fringes. With this mind, lingered the MVFR CIGs over the terminals for the first several hours of the period this afternoon before a gradual scattering/lifting occurs during the late afternoon into this evening. VFR conditions are anticipated through the overnight period as mid/high level clouds stream in from the west ahead of the next system. This system will track through the Great Lakes region during the day on Friday, shedding some MVFR CIGs into northern portions of the area during the day (which may impact KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK towards end of period). Cannot completely rule out some flurries or light snow shower activity at KCMH towards the very end of the period, but left out of TAF for now given location and timing uncertainties. Main item of interest between 12z-18z Friday will be a tightening of the surface pressure gradient yielding gradually- increasing west-southwest winds. Gusts may exceed 20 kts towards very end of period, especially for northern sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday/Friday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Sunday into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...KC

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