Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200533 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry cold front will wash out overnight, while high pressure strengthens over the Ohio Valley into Friday. High pressure will then extend across the region into Saturday. The next weather system to affect the area will arrive late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak cold front will wash out over the area overnight. Typically with this type of scenario there would be a better fog potential, however with dry airmass in place decided to limit fog to the river valley locations at this time. Will continue to watch as temp dewpoint spreads have decreased. Made only minor adjustments to temperatures with lows in the 40s to around 50. In general just expect some high clouds across the region through the overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... During the day Friday mid level ridging will continue during the afternoon with 500 mb heights around 586 dm. 850 mb temperatures are expected to rise to around 15 degrees C with low level thicknesses (1000/ 850mb) increasing to around 1385 m. Both of the aforementioned values would indicate highs in the mid 70s Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Well advertised pattern change is still expected to take place during this period. While large scale changes are in good agreement, there are discrepancies in the details of how this evolves. Main differences are in the southern stream closing off over the mid Mississippi Valley and how fast that opens up and gets absorbed into the developing long wave trough. The other is how quick/deep the northern stream energy is that carves out this trough. In general, there is a trend towards a slightly slower progression. Thus very warm temperatures will persist through the weekend. Some showers could work into western counties Sunday afternoon, but it is more likely that showers will hold off until later. Unsettled conditions will occur Sunday night through Monday night with a cold front gradually working across the region. Some showers could linger into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures will move in with Wednesday still looking to be the coolest day of the week with highs around 10 degrees below normal. The amplified upper pattern will be progressive, so as the trough moves east, short wave ridging will work in on Thursday. Thus it will dry out by then although cool conditions will continue. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FG/BR is developing at LUK. Otherwise conditions will probably remain VFR under high pressure and dry air. Will monitor other sites for fog but right now it appears winds may stay up enough to prevent formation. Sky covers will be limited to cirrus, possibly increasing in coverage toward the end of the forecast. Winds will stay under 7 knots, with direction from the west early, shifting to south during the day. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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