Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 302006 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 406 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD...STARTING TO SEE SOME CU POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION ON VIS SATELLITE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND ANY CU WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONCE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES. NOT A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR BR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OWING TO DRY LOW LEVELS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR MORE CU IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...KURZ

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