Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160608 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 108 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east through the Great Lakes tonight, as high pressure builds into the southeastern states. This will allow for southwesterly winds and gradually warming temperatures through the weekend, with chances for rain on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Drier air pushed by high pressure building across the south is resulting in a gradual decrease in cloud cover that will continue through tonight, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies by 6 am. Persistent SSW surface flow will keep temperatures from falling too far tonight. Min temps are thus expected to be in the middle to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... By Saturday morning, mid-level moisture will already be beginning to move northeast of the ILN forecast area, as surface high pressure becomes more established over the southeastern states. As this occurs, mid-level ridging will be moving gradually toward the Ohio Valley, though the ridge will be dampening as it translates eastward. Another round of moderate southwesterly flow will occur, though flow aloft turns quickly to the W and WNW, with a strong/dry inversion near 900mb limiting gust potential into the 15-25 MPH range (mainly Saturday afternoon). Nonetheless, this warm advection will bring a notable upward bump in temperatures on Saturday. There will be a strong temperature gradient across the CWA thanks in part to the departing clouds in the north, but max temps should generally range from the lower 40s (north) to near 50 (south). There will be some return of cirrus (and maybe some mid-level clouds) late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but dry conditions are expected through the end of the short term forecast period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Embedded mid level shortwave to eject northeast across the area and deamplify as it encounters the mean ridge. On Sunday Moisture increases from the sw with this system but with it weakening only expect 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of pcpn. In WAA pattern pcpn will be mainly rain with only a low chance of a mix at the onset. Pcpn diminishes Monday with this feature shifting off to the east. Expect highs on Sunday from 40 to 45 and from the lower 40s northeast to 50 southwest Monday. Shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes and weak front will provide a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Above normal temperatures to continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Model solutions diverge at mid week but will follow continuity and keep forecast dry Wednesday with surface high pressure building into the region. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Models differ on handling next surface low which tracks through the area at the end of the week in split flow regime. Will hold off pcpn until late Thursday afternoon and then increase pops Thursday night with approach of surface front. On the warm side of this system expect Thursdays highs from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest. Pcpn to diminish from nw to se late Friday into Friday night in the wake of the front. Pcpn may mix with or change to snow prior to ending. Highs to range from lower 40s nw to the lower 50s se Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will be present through the forecast period. Stratus deck around 6kft will erode from the west overnight, as a higher 10kft deck streams in from the northwest. This 10kft deck will break up this morning as it moves ene and out of the picture by noon. Winds will see some gusts to 20-22kt from late morning to early afternoon as the surface gradient tightens and then slack after about 20-21z. Generally clear skies will be found overnight but the extended TAF at CVG will see cirrus clouds spill in from the southwest before daybreak Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Sunday night through Monday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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