Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 170623
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold
front will move through on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance
will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The initial wave of isentropically induced showers is lifting
northeast across our area attm. We should then see a brief lull in
the more widespread precipitation for a couple of hours before
the next wave of precipitation moves in. This second wave will be
associated with the combination of some mid level energy and a
strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet. Expect precipitation to
be fairly widespread so will keep the categorical pops going
through the night. We are seeing several lightning strikes
upstream across western Kentucky and Illinois, now pushing into
western Indiana. The instability should weaken some through the
night but given the fairly dynamic system and the fact that some
weak elevated instabilities are progged to overspread our area
through the early morning hours, think a few thunderstorms will
be possible later tonight across our area. Temperatures are
currently running from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s
south but these should gradually rise overnight in the
strengthening southerly low level flow.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move through on Tuesday. There is some weak
instability and therefore have some thunder mention in the
forecast. Although there will be a lull in the precipitation
Tuesday afternoon and early evening a decent upper level
disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The greatest coverage of the
shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the
region. Some lingering drizzle will be possible on Wednesday
before precipitation tapers off. Even as precipitation tapers off
on Wednesday lots of low level moisture remains and keep clouds
around through the day on Wednesday. High pressure and dry
conditions are expected Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail
through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it
pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio
Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in
the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into
Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much
above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper
low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then
turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot
rule out a bit of thunder as well.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mid level shortwave and associated sfc low over the mid MS valley
to eject northeast across the Great Lakes today. This will allow
southward trailing cold front to sweep east across all TAF sites
from midday through early this afternoon. Expect CIGS and VSBYS
to drop through MVFR into IFR category by morning.
Wave of rain overspreading the TAF sites associated with embedded
s/w and a strengthening 45-50 knot low level jet. Some marginal
elevated instability will work into the Ohio valley toward sunrise,
so a few thunderstorms are not out of the question. Due to limited
coverage have limited mention to VCTS at KCVG/KLUK.
Due to low level jet, low level wind shear will also be possible
overnight but this appears marginal at best so have left out the
mention of LLWS. Rain showers will continue into the morning
until a cold front pushes east across the area. Expect MVFR CIGS
to persist through the forecast period.
In the wake of the front, winds will veer to the west and gust up
to 22 kts this afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --