Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271417 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1017 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TODAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS...IT HAS PROVIDED SOMEWHAT OF A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRONGER CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOVING GENERALLY ESE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHTER...BUT THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN ODD MOTION VECTORS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A WHILE...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS. VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORT KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ILN CWA. WEAK SHEAR AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY...BUT THE HIGH OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING QUITE A BIT OF RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SKY GRIDS WERE INCREASED...AND MAX TEMPS WERE DECREASED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AROUND DECAYING BOUNDARY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD POP IN NRN KY/SRN OH ON TUESDAY DESPITE A BUILDING H5 RIDGE. ON WEDNESDAY A H5 TROF WILL SWING THROUGH SRN CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING. THE NAM IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF AS SLOW...KEEPING PCPN CHANCE ACROSS THE W. WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 80S SOUTH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT TODAY AND THE EAST WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE REGION FOR SHOWER INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL AREAS AND POTENTIALLY SEE SOME LIFR VSBYS AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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