Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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823 FXUS61 KILN 302349 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 749 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low pressure system will lift slowly northeast across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This will result in the continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms and slightly below normal temperatures through Sunday. A warmer and drier airmass will build into the region through the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly pivoting up across northern portions of our fa this afternoon. This is associated with an impressive vort axis rotating around the upper level low. This vort axis is forecast to continue to pivot north and northwest around the low through this evening. This should allow for the axis of pcpn to slowly lift out of our area through late afternoon into early this evening. On the back side of this, some subsidence should keep pcpn chances on the lower end through much of the evening. We could see a bit of an increase in pops once again later tonight though as the upper level low that is currently centered down by Louisville begins to lift north. As a result, will go ahead and allow for some increase in pops later tonight, primarily across western portions of our area. We could see some partial clearing work up into at least southern portions of our fa this evening but models are suggesting that we should fill back in with some lower clouds later tonight. This will make temperatures a little tricky overnight but will generally keep overnight lows in the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will slowly lift north northeast from Indiana on Saturday up into southern Ontario through the day on Sunday. As spokes of energy rotate around the low, expect scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms to persist across our area through the weekend. The best chance for pcpn will be Saturday afternoon as we destabilize some through the day and the low lifts across northwest Ohio. Expect decreasing chances then Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves off to our north, but will still linger at least some slight pops through the day on Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the mid 60s, warming into the upper 60s to around 70 by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term will open up with a closed low ejecting off to the east over New England with weak mid level ridging building into the region. The latest 30.12Z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF have come into pretty good agreement with the timing of the low pushing off the coast and away from the CWA. As the weak ridging forms over the area another upper level system will be pushing into the Mountain West which will push the next cold front into the area Friday. Model discrepancy continues to be an issue for the second part of the next work week though. The 30.12Z ECMWF and CMC both try to linger some of the energy from the upper level low over New England under weak ridging. This in turn helps to block progression of Matthew and push the cold front through the area slightly quicker. Regarding more of the details, a general warming trend is expected to commence starting Tuesday thanks to mid level ridging and a warming low level thermal profile. 850 mb temperatures Monday are forecasted to be around 9 degrees C and warm towards 13 degrees C by Wednesday. This would support high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, or about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. PWATs also fall below 1.00" so am expecting dry weather Monday through Wednesday. For the second half of the extended models begin to differ on the timing of the passage of a surface cold front and the circulation of Matthew. The ECMWF has a trough axis push through the area Friday morning supporting a cold front passage Friday morning as well. The GFS on the other hand supports the cold front passing through Friday evening. In general, PWATS (~1.2") and upper level lift appear to be sufficient for showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage but given low confidence in timing have kept PoPs in the chance category for now. Have also kept grids reflecting more of the ECMWF and CMC solution. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Upper level low will continue to influence the weather pattern through the TAF period. Signal is not as strong for low vsbys and cigs as it has been previous nights, however still expect some reduced visibilities and ceilings overnight. Spotty shower activity will be present overnight and into the morning hours on Saturday with additional showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with showers through Saturday night, with IFR ceilings possible Sunday near 12z.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Novak

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