Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270846 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 446 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Very Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. In the Very warm and humid airmass, a few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible today mainly across the west. By Sunday into Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Elongated mid level ridge axis centered to our se builds a little north and east today. Moderate instability develops this afternoon across ILN/s western counties. Due to lack of significant forcing, have limited pops to slight chance across the west around the periphery of the mid level high durg the afternoon. Have bumped temperatures slightly higher with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower/mid 90s se. These very warm readings combined with humid conditions will result in heat indices in the mid 90s acrs the north and upper 90s acrs the southern half of the FA. A few locations in the south may briefly exceed 100. Will mention these heat indices in HWO product.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Nearly stationary elongated mid level ridge remains centered to our se with a shortwave moving thru the Great Lakes, tonight/Sunday. Moderate instby develops during the afternoon with a weak boundary dropping south into the Ohio Valley. Have low chance pops across the entire region with the best likelihood for convection across the north. Very warm readings expected again on Sunday with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower/middle 90s se. Mid and upper 90s heat indices expected again Sunday afternoon. Surface high pressure to build acrs the Great Lakes Monday where mid level westerlies will exist. Meanwhile, e-w elongated mid level ridge will stretch from the Central Plains thru the Tn Valley and Del Mar Va. Weak boundary across the south may lead to isold convective development across the south Monday afternoon. Have limited pops to slight chance. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will result in heat indices in the mid/upr 90s across the southern half of ILN/s FA.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the late day in a continued humid airmass. Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the lower 60s by weeks end. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface analysis shows a slow moving front near the Ohio River. With no precip occurring along the front, skies are cloudy due to mid and high level moisture originating from convection over far western Kentucky. VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for the most part, though BR is expected to reduce visibility at LUK and ILN early this morning. Models indicate convection will be isolated at most and thus not worth mentioning in the forecast. Scattered cumulus will probably form during daylight hours, while cirrus persists. Winds will not be much of a factor either with speeds around 5 knots out of the southeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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