Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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756 FXUS61 KILN 300759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A southerly flow will develop today as a warm front travels to Lake Erie. A cold front will push through tonight through Monday morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front for Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Warm front situated over Southern Ohio early this morning will lift north toward Lake Erie today. Thunderstorms that have developed near the boundary and a ripple of short wave energy will push north and weaken. This should leave most of the area under dry conditions through early afternoon, according to latest models. For later this afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop in western counties along a band of PVA and a strengthening low level jet located ahead of a cold front to the west. Temperatures will be boosted well above normal by warm advection on a southerly flow, with highs reaching the lower to middle 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Most locations should be dry this evening, except in western counties where scattered convection may linger. Conditions will change during the overnight hours as the cold front closes in from the west. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front and move across the area late tonight through Monday morning. Potent winds aloft will aid in thunderstorm organization, which may allow stronger updrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Severe potential may be limited by marginal instability during the overnight to early morning hours. Heavy rain will accompany the thunderstorms, leading to localized flooding, especially over saturated soils in areas that have already received heavy rainfall in recent days. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish quickly by Monday afternoon as the front travels east. A tight pressure gradient and vigorous mixing behind the cold front will result in wind gusts close to 40 mph Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooled by clouds, precip and advection associated with the cold front. Highs are forecast to range from the lower 60s far west up to the lower 70s far east.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Deep upper level low to track east-northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Canada Monday night into Tuesday. Best moisture and lift to our north closer to the upper low. Will limit pops to a slight chance of a shower far north Monday night into Tuesday. In tight pressure gradient winds to gust up to 40 mph Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs Tuesday from near 60 northwest to 70 southeast. Confluent westerly mid level flow with surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the same time a mid level trof develops over the central plains. The flow backs across the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading back in from the south Wednesday. Temperatures look to be around 5 degrees below normal with highs Wednesday ranging from near 60 northwest to the upper 60s southeast. Surface wave to track north into the Ohio Valley as upper level low closes off. This will enhance rain shower chances Thursday. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures around 10 degrees below normal with highs Thursday ranging from the mid/upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Model solutions have differed on handling the system at the end of the week into next weekend. Previous runs have oscillated regarding the phasing of the streams. Latest trend on GFS and ECMWF phases the flow with upper level low tracking through the Ohio Valley Friday. Due to the large changes with each run confidence in fcst is low for the end of the week into next weekend. Have trended wetter on Friday and keep a slight chance of a rain shower Saturday. Will continue cool temperatures with highs Friday in the upper 50s and lower 60s and generally in the middle 60s on Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Moist conditions near the ground following recent heavy rain have produced ceilings down to LIFR early in the TAF period. In addition, scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly western sites during the first few hours of the forecast period. Wind shear is expected as well. Conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR by mid morning as a warm front lifts to Lake Erie allowing thunderstorms and low ceilings to move out and dissipate. South winds are forecast to gust over 20 knots in the warm sector. Late in the TAF period, a strong cold front approaching from the west will produce the chance for more showers and thunderstorms at western sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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