Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281657 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. High pressure will build in Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers will continue to pass north-northeast over the cwa with the strongest storms occasionally reaching a depth where charge separation will initiate isolated lightning strikes. With the cloud cover western cwa inhibiting daytime insolation and boundary layer heating, expect showers to continue to be the rule today with occasional lightning. Temperatures in the lower 80s will be found with a few locations with less sky cover reaching middle 80s. H5 ridge in place will not permit organized deep convection over the region today so scattered thunderstorms remain the best forecast with little to no chance of them becoming severe.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection may linger into the evening in eastern counties before diminishing. Tail end of a trough swinging across the Great Lakes later Sunday may brush by the forecast area. This will also push a weak cold front across the region Sunday night. This may result some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the night. High pressure will build in Monday with a drier airmass. Did not stray too far from MOS for temperatures except for going a bit cooler on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over the region at the beginning of the period will slowly move east but continue to influence the area possibly into Wednesday. Long wave trough will move out of the Plains on Thursday and head into the region on Friday. This will cause a cold front to cross the area late Thursday into Thursday night. There will be enough of a return of moisture ahead of the boundary that showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead of the front. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal until Friday when readings will fall back closer to climatology. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Scattered convection with isolated lightning strikes this afternoon will continue but should have a bit less coverage than earlier thinking. H5 ridge will see these storms work NNE through the region and diminish as daytime heating wanes. A convergent layer should help to keep some type of cloud cover overnight which will break up Sunday morning. This will help inhibit storm initiation until late tomorrow afternoon and push the threat for any developing storms to be well east of the taf sites. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Franks

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