Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 162143 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 443 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Warm front continues to lift northward. Lower vsbys and cooler temperatures are near and north of this feature. Patchy to areas of fog will continue tonight across northern and western portions of the area with lots of low level moisture in place. In addition a couple rounds of rain will move through and expect vsbys to be lowered with breaks in the rain. Do not expect temperatures to really fall much overnight with southerly flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front will move through on Tuesday. There is some weak instability and therefore have some thunder mention in the forecast. Although there will be a lull in the precipitation Tuesday afternoon and early evening a decent upper level disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The greatest coverage of the shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the region. Some lingering drizzle will be possible on Wednesday before precipitation tapers off. Even as precipitation tapers off on Wednesday lots of low level moisture remains and keep clouds around through the day on Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder as well.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm front has now pushed north of the TAF sites this afternoon with some breaks in the low clouds across northern Kentucky. Latest GFS and NAM forecast soundings keep the low clouds in across all the terminals but the low cloud clearing line will be close to reaching KCVG, KLUK, and KILN. The SREF and HRRRTL indicate the clearing line reaching the terminals mentioned above. The GFS and NAM guidance follow suite with the GFS/NAM forecast soundings. For now have kept TAFS locked in with the low clouds. Later this afternoon into evening an upper level low will eject northeast and approach Wisconsin by Tuesday morning. Out ahead of the low a weak band of PV (lift) will approach the area with a band of showers. The ARW, NMM, HRRR, and NSSL WRF are all in fairly good agreement with precipitation affecting our western TAF sites by 0z Tuesday. The band will then push east across the TAF sites Tuesday morning with a brief break in precip possible. After the break a surface low will approach from the southwest bringing more showers. Looking at some of the high res models thunder looks possible as a ribbon of instability moves up with the surface low. For now have left the mention of thunder out of the TAFs as confidence remains low. Also at this time a strong LLJ will move across the terminals bringing some LLWS. Finally high res models also indicate a fog potential mostly north and west of the terminals closer to the warm front Tuesday morning. This makes sense. Have left mention of fog out of TAFs for now. During the day Tuesday the surface low will track north and east of the area with a surface cold front slowly making its way into the area. The front will be slow to clear the area though and wont clear the TAF sites until Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front some gusty winds will be possible as hinted at using NAM and GFS momentum transfer. The GFS is again higher than the NAM indicating gusts up to 25 kts possible while the NAM shows closer to 20 kts. Have kept wind gusts closer to NAM values. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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