Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280457 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY KEEP CLOUDS INTO THE TRI-STATE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THERE ARE SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME SITES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW. OFF TO OUR EAST THERE IS ALSO SOME MVFR CIGS BUT FOR THE MOST PART CLEARING THAT IS GOING ON TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE. SUNDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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