Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 240842 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 442 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THIS FEATURE AND THE TWO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGHS WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TANDEM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. A MIX OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S WEST. FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL PUSH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION. HAVE ALLOWED FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS STATED IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FASTER WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE SPED UP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS REMAINING IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS PCPN SAGS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MID 70S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT. THIS MAY OCCUR AT KLCK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPERATURES CEASE FALLING. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE AT KLUK. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY VFR STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. WSW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS...SWITCHING TO THE SW AND LESSENING AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK AVIATION...HATZOS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.