Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220605 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 105 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and wet weather has moved into the region as a cold front has stalled southeast of the area. Low pressure tracking just south of the region tonight into Thursday will result in more widespread precipitation. Unsettled conditions will remain into the weekend as additional weather systems pass through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Rain will spread across the entire area overnight. There will be some enhanced rainfall into the southern counties with up to an inch through the rest of the night. There are a few observations of freezing temperatures in west central Ohio, but recent trends suggest that it may not get as cold as originally forecast. Have cut back a bit on ice accumulation forecast, but will continue with advisory.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Thursday morning precipitation will be ongoing across central and southern Ohio with frozen precipitation possible across north/central Ohio. Thursday afternoon the upper level jet streak and disturbance will pull east with weak subsidence in the wake. Thursday afternoon into evening will likely be dry with a brief break in the precipitation due to the mentioned above. Early Friday morning the trough axis across the west coast will remain with the subtropical ridge off the east coast. This setup will allow another round of PV to break off and head towards the Ohio Valley. This means more showers will overspread the area Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active wet weather pattern to continue into Sunday. Anomalously strong sub tropical ridge over the southeast with a moist southwesterly flow focused into the Ohio Valley to begin the long term forecast period. Multiple waves of rain will lead to a continued flood threat. Moisture will pool ahead of a front moving into the area on Friday with precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches which is a record value for this time of year. Front to drop southeast across the area Friday and stall out parallel to the mid level flow near the Ohio River Friday night. On the warm side of the system temperatures look to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs on Friday from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. A brief lull in the pcpn activity expected late Friday night. Mid level shortwave and deepening surface low to eject northeast from the central plains Saturday into the Great Lakes Saturday night. Will continue to ramp pops back up to categorical Saturday. Strong low level jet will provide abundant moisture and marginal instability to the area. High shear low cape severe weather setup showing a signal with Sherb parameter Saturday night. Warm temperatures to continue with highs on Saturday from the mid 50s northwest to near 70 southeast. With the front expected to sweep east through the area early Sunday a drying trend to develop. Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather from Sunday into the middle of next week. Expect early highs on Sunday with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. Temperatures to turn cooler but still above normal with highs Monday and Tuesday generally in the 50s. Moisture to return from the south on the backside of retreating high pressure Wednesday. Will hold off any mention of rain until later in the afternoon. Warm temperatures to continue with highs from 50 north to the upper 50s south Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread across all terminals during the early part of the TAF period. There will be some MVFR visibilities with heavier rainfall. This rain will move east of the region by 15Z. but lower ceilings will likely persist through the remainder of the period. Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt will prevail. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to continue into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-052. Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ063>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ066-073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...

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