Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 202345 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 645 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather disturbance will push east across the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night bringing the chance for a few showers. Dry conditions are then expected through Friday before another disturbance results in a slight chance for showers on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to shift east to the Carolinas through tonight. This will allow for the pressure gradient across our area to remain and help to keep winds from totally decoupling overnight. We should continue to see some cirrus at times tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid/upper level trough axis will pivot east across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models have continued to trend a little farther south with this feature. While the deeper moisture will remain fairly marginal, there may be enough for some scattered shower activity to develop through late afternoon across mainly our northwest. A chance of showers will then swing east across much of the rest of our area through the evening hours, with the best chance being across our north. Southerly flow ahead of this should help push temperatures up into the upper 40s and 50s for highs on Tuesday. As a result, any pcpn should remain mainly rain showers. however, as some cooler air starts to work in behind the system, forecast soundings are suggesting perhaps a brief mix across our north before the pcpn ends. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Period will feature a lack of strong forcing and deep moisture, probably resulting in below normal precip. High pressure and dry weather will be moving in on Wednesday behind a cold front, pushed by a broad northwest flow aloft. Though the atmosphere will be dry overall, clouds may increase Wednesday night until the axis of an upper trough moves through on Thursday. Expect mainly clear conditions Thursday night and Friday as the high settles to the North Carolina coast. For Friday night and Saturday, a rather potent surface low over Southern Canada, driven by a sharp upper trough, is forecast to push a cold front to the Ohio Valley, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers. A few snow flurries may mix in toward the end of the event on Saturday night. High pressure and dry air are expected to follow the cold front for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will vary with respect to advection patterns associated with the cold fronts. Chilly readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s Wednesday behind the first cold front are expected to rise through the 40s on Thursday and Friday before reaching the lower 50s on Saturday under gradual but persistent warm advection on a southwest flow. After the next cold front passes Saturday night, look for highs mainly in the 30s Sunday and Monday due to cold advection on a northerly flow. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Airmass is dry with only high level clouds expected to stream across the TAF sites overnight. Low level jet increases overnight ahead of mid level s/w digging southeast into the Great Lakes. This low level jet could lead to some LLWS late tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with clouds thickening ahead of an approaching surface cold front late in the day Tuesday. Have indicated a wind shift to the northwest with clouds down to 5000 feet late int he KCVG 30 hour forecast. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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