Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280610 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS. LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT 1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER. LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 80S. MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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