Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 292058 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 458 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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A BOUNDARY IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LESS CLOUD COVER HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURE DROP OFF WILL SLOW FOR THE LATER PART OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIURNAL CU CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT KDAY...BUT EXPECT SCT CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS HAVE BEEN CALM OR VERY LIGHT UNDER THIS HIGH BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE A TAD OUT OF THE NW. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE LESS POTENTIAL FOR BR/FOG COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KLUK WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DIP BELOW IFR AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS INITIALLY OUT OF THE WEST...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM... AVIATION...KURZ

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