Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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949 FXUS61 KILN 241757 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 157 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push east across the region through this afternoon, resulting in another sunny and warm day. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as a series of upper level disturbances push through the region. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms from time to time through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region through this afternoon. Outside of a few high level clouds pushing up over the ridge and a few diurnal cumulus, mostly sunny skies are expected. As the airmass continues to modify, expect highs a bit warmer than what we saw on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As the surface high moves off to the east tonight into Wednesday, some return flow will develop as the low level southwesterly flow begins to increase. The combination of a weak mid level impulse moving through the lower Ohio Valley and some developing waa could lead to isolated to scattered shower and possibly thunderstorm development off to our southwest later tonight. If this does develop, it will lift northeast toward our area late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Will therefore allow for some lower chance pops to work into our southwest late, but with little if any instability progged across our area, will keep any pcpn as just showers through Wednesday morning. In continued southwesterly low level flow and waa, we should push up into the lower 80s through Wednesday afternoon. This will allow for us to destabilize through the day and with another mid level short wave lifting northwest across the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, expect scattered shower and thunderstorms to develop. We will destabilize once again through the day on Thursday as we warm back up into the lower 80s. However, with a little bit of mid level ridging possibly redeveloping across the region, think thunderstorm development will be more limited so will keep pops in the lower chance category through Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The H5 ridge continues to build up over the east coast into the weekend. This will lock the summer pattern in for the extended. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s each day. Scattered diurnal convection will also be the rule. Went with only chance pops each day...tapering off overnight. Low temperatures should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to move east of the region through the TAF period. Meanwhile...a mid level disturbance to our west will move east into the area on Wednesday. Moisture will increase ahead of this feature in the form of mid level clouds at first tonight. Forcing is weak with this system. However...there could be enough lift for some spotty shower activity moving into the western terminals around 12Z. On Wednesday...the combination of the mid level feature and diurnal heating will result in some scattered shower/perhaps thunderstorms...with coverage expected to be low enough at this time to just carry a vcsh. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Hickman

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