Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281627 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1227 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure traveling along a slow moving frontal boundary will produce heavy rainfall mainly in southern locations today and tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday when the system will be moving east. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere may help trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms in an unstable airmass Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Area of moderate to heavy rain continues to push through ne KY and the Scioto River Valley. Have cancelled the wrn half of the FFA as the threat of the heavy rain has pushed to the east. Latest mesoscale models continue to point to only some scattered convection popping up nw of I-71 this afternoon. Lowered PoPs to 20 there. Tweaked highs this afternoon. A little higher in the nw and lower on the se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wave of low pressure will be moving east tonight while the front sags a bit toward the south. Heavy rain will end overnight, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger mainly over southern locations close to the boundary. Thunderstorms chances will persist Friday when another wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the west along the still present boundary. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday as the broad and weak area of low pressure pushes toward Ohio ahead of a digging mid level short wave. High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to remain a few degrees below normal in the low to mid 80s due to clouds and precip. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States. There still remains timing differences on when the high will build and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs down. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... First area of convection has moved thru CVG/LUK and will affect ILN and CMH/LCK over the first couple of hours of the taf period. Expect MVFR cigs and vsbys with the pcpn. There will probably be some temporary drops to IFR conditions in heavier cells. DAY will remain on the nw fringe of the pcpn shield. A second shot of pcpn in s central KY will lift north later this morning and should affect CVG/LUK around 14Z-16Z. The deeper moisture shifts east of TAF sites this aftn, so expect pcpn to become more scattered in nature. Due lagging upper level support and unstable airmass have kept VCTS until early evening. Looks like the overnight hours could remain dry, but there will be a chance of fog at the majority of the taf sites. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Friday through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ079>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ097>100. IN...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Sites

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