Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151749 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 149 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area today, bringing rain and gusty winds. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front to start the new week, though as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, dry weather is expected. A gradual warming trend is expected through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The surface low is over the far northern portions of lower Michigan this morning with the cold front extending down across western Michigan, across northwest Indiana and into southern Illinois. The leading line of convection out ahead of the front should continue to decrease in intensity/coverage as suggested by the higher res models as it moves into our area. The front will push east across our area through this afternoon and we will likely see an uptick in convective coverage along/just ahead of the front as we get into this afternoon and the more favorable diurnal period. Overall thunder chances appear fairly low given the low instability, but there could be a bit of an increasing chance across our far east later this afternoon as some slightly better instability develops just ahead of the front. Gradient winds will remain the biggest issue as we progress through the day and the front moves through, with winds gusting in the 30 to 40 mph range, especially across northern portions of our fa. With CAA developing behind the front, we will see early highs today with steady and then falling temperatures behind the front, particulary across western portions of our area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A gradual diminishing trend is expected in the winds behind the cold front, eventually leading to light NNW flow (10 knots or less) by early Monday morning. No question that the cold advection will lead to the coolest min temps in a while, with lower to mid 40s expected. Over the course of Monday, an expansive area of high pressure will build from the middle Mississippi Valley region into the Ohio Valley. With dry air in place, mostly clear conditions are expected, but the significant change in air mass will result in a big drop in temperatures -- with max temps only in the upper 50s to near 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will settle across the Ohio Valley Monday night. Winds will become light to calm across the eastern and southern zones, while a pressure gradient keeps winds up a tad over the northwest. With mainly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 30s over most locations of the east and south, especially in rural, sheltered, locations. Have expanded the frost potential to cover all by the northwest, where lows will be in the lower 40s. The frost potential has been included in the HWO product. For the period Tuesday into Wednesday night, surface high pressure will continue to extend across the Ohio Valley. Sunny days and clear nights are expected. Temperatures will modify with highs in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday giving way to upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. With a dry airmass in place and with light to calm winds at night, lows will drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday morning, with mainly lower to mid 40s by Thursday morning. Mid level energy will be passing to our north Thursday into Thursday night, which may push a dry cold front into the southern Great Lakes by Friday morning. Otherwise, Thursday will see highs in the lower 70s all locations. For Friday and into the upcoming weekend, upper level riding will develop over the Tennessee Valley and will coincide with surface ridging across the region. This will keep the forecast dry and warm with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cold front is pushing into our area from the west, currently stretching from northwest Ohio into southeast Indiana. The bulk of the shower activity is mainly along and just behind the front with more spotty shower activity out ahead of it. With this in mind, will linger a mention of shower activity a bit longer in the TAFs. Southwest winds gusting into the 25 to 35 knot range will become west to northwest with the passage of the frontal passage over the next couple of hours. Out ahead of the front, cigs have bumped up into VFR in places but think they will come back down into MVFR once the front goes through. Models are suggesting at least some partial clearing overnight but based on upstream satellite imagery, will go ahead and linger some clouds on into Monday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...JGL

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