Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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677 FXUS61 KILN 182359 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 659 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach the region from the southwest tonight. It will then lift northeast across the area on Monday. Much of the region will dry out for Monday night into Tuesday as frontal boundaries remain to the north and west. Unseasonably warm air will bring the potential for record temperatures on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Cirrus will stream in from the west/southwest this evening well ahead of a developing warm front. Lows will be early on given thinest clouds and lighter winds. Lows will range form the mid 30s to the lower 40s early on, then they will rise into the upper 40s to the mid 50s late as clouds thicken and winds increase from the south. For the overnight period, two areas of developing energy will be the focus for an increasing threat for precipitation. One piece will be located near our southeast late, while a strong, moist low level jet develops/noses into the remainder of the area. Have ramped up PoPs between the 06Z and 12Z time frame, with the lowest PoPs south and highest northwest. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder north given strong ascent and some indication of elevated instability. Some high resolution convection allowing models are hinting at a split in the energy, so it is possible that PoPs may have to be lowered in between if this trend continues. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... On Monday, the warm front is forecast to lift north across the region, being located across the southern Great Lakes by evening. Again, showers (isolated thunder) will be most widespread along and north of I-70 during the morning, with decreasing chances as one moves south. By afternoon, much of the precipitation will have lifted into northern Ohio. Total rainfall amounts will range from a half inch to and inch along and north of I-70, with a tenth to one half inch elsewhere. This should not pose a need for an areal flood watch. Under an increasing southerly flow, locally gusty, temperatures will warm into the lower 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River. These values are well above normal by about 25 degrees. However, it appears records at the three major airports should be safe. For Monday night, much of the region will be in the wake of the warm front and warm sectored. Some spotty shower activity in a moist southwest plume aloft will prompt to keep at least a chance of showers going for the far northwest. Overnight lows will also be unseasonably warm, ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. These values will be some 30 to 35 degrees above normal. Given predicted warmth on Tuesday, it looks like record low maximums for February 20th (Tuesday) are going to be broken. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An unseasonably warm forecast with a very moist airmass and periods of rain will remain the general consensus over the Ohio Valley through the period. Record warm temperatures are expected through Tuesday night. While daytime records are forecast to be broken, they`re still within 3-5 degrees of the records and not a sure bet. Overnight lows are forecast 10 deg warmer Mon night/Tues morning and 3-9 deg warmer Tues night, and much more likely to be set. A front will be found northwest of the area through early Wednesday and then work through the region with an early high in the southeast and falling temperatures for the rest of the area during the day. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the period Wed night through Thurs night - still 10 deg warmer than normal on overnight lows and 5 deg warmer on highs. Southwest flow then sets back up for the latter part of the forecast and brings a return of unseasonably mild temperatures and increased threats of rain. Regarding rainfall, a prolonged period of steady and sometimes moderate rain will occur with the frontal passage Tues night through Wed night. Have indicated moderate rainfall where pops were likely and higher, and also put in a chance of thunder for the same area through Tuesday night. Not to say that thunder won`t be possible on Wednesday, but the zonal upper flow and lack of defined shortwaves in the flow this far out had me leave this out beyond then. Likewise with the second threat for rain on Friday and beyond, models disagreed significantly enough with placement, timing, and upper level features to have me top out the max chance of rain at the chance category, though it will likely occur at times. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Overcast cirrus deck will gradually lower overnight as isentropic lift increases ahead of a warm front. Low level jet also develops after 06Z. This would generally signal the possibility of LLWS. Latest guidance is showing less of a threat, but still kept a mention until about 12Z. Precipitation surges in from the southwest between 09Z and 12Z. Ceilings and visbilities will drop quickly to MVFR/VFR with the pcpn at the nrn tafs and MVFR conditions for the srn tafs. As warm front pushes quickly north of the tafs, the ceilings will lift back into the MVFR as the pcpn ends, then they will jump to VFR as the area becomes warm sectored. Winds will also become gusty in the warm sector. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday and Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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