Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270958 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 458 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS. HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST. BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK. AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH STRATO CU OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER DUE TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE FLURRIES DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28 CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934 COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934 DAYTON......-3 IN 1934 && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050- 058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK CLIMATE...

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