Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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000
FXUS61 KILN 171842
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
242 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers
and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Widespread diurnal cu across the northern half of our area, and
scattered light showers across our far north, will persist
through late afternoon before dissipating with loss of diurnal
heating. Skies will then become mostly clear as we head through
the evening hours. Gusty west to northwest winds this afternoon
will also trend down as we lose the daytime mixing going into
this evening, but still likely remain in the 5 to 10 mph range
through the night. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to
upper 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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An embedded mid level short wave will pivot down across the
Ohio Valley through the day on Monday. This will combine with a
fetch off of Lake Michigan, diurnal heating, and increasing low
level lapse rates, to result in fairly widespread snow shower
development from late morning on into the afternoon. This is
reflected in the snow squall parameter which lights up pretty
nicely across at least the northeast two thirds of our area.
For now will go with high chance pops/scattered wording across
most of the area but pops may need to be nudged up further with
later forecasts. Given the cold air aloft and the fact that
these will be convective showers, will keep ptype as all snow.
While ground temperatures will still be warm, it will be tough
to rule out some brief light accumulations on grassy/elevated
surfaces in any of the more significant snow showers.
Temperatures will be well below normal with daytime highs only
in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. The snow shower activity
will slowly taper off heading into Monday evening with lows
Monday night in the mid 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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By Tuesday, the shortwave trough axis will have shifted southeast of
the region, however, much of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions
remain within the longwave trough persisting over eastern North
America. The longwave trough lingers through Thursday before mid and
upper level flow temporarily becomes zonal. Conditions are expected
to remain dry through much of the week, but temperatures continue to
trend cooler toward the later half of the week as another surge of
cooler air drops in from the north. While Tuesday and Wednesday`s
high temperatures are near normal, Thursday afternoon will be a few
degrees below normal.
The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday night into Friday
morning as a weak shortwave moving southeastward through the
longwave trough will supply weak synoptic lift. This will combine
with moisture sourced from a closed low passing the south of the
region. Overall, this leads to fairly lackluster precipitation
chances for the area through Friday. Heading into the weekend, a
longwave change appears to approach as a broad ridge opens up for
the central CONUS. This would suggest a gradual warming trend into
the weekend and early next week, with better rainfall chances
arriving next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A diurnal cu field has developed this afternoon, especially
along and north of the I-70 corridor. It will be tough to rule
out a stray shower at the northern TAF sites through late
afternoon. Otherwise, diurnal cu will dissipate heading into
this evening with skies becoming mostly clear.
A mid level short wave will drop down across the region
through the day on Monday. This will combine with a fetch off
of Lake Michigan and some diurnal instability to result in
fairly widespread snow shower development across at least our
northern areas from late morning into the afternoon. This could
lead to some localized MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs.
West to northwest winds with gusts to around 25 knots will be
possible this afternoon and then again late Monday morning and
into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL