Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300552 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 152 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... East-west front extending across the region will lift north late tonight into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds will bring warmer temperatures on Sunday. A strong cold front will push through the region late Sunday night through Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Boundary is laid out west to east across northern portions of our fa early this evening with some decent instability in place across southern portions of our fa where sb capes are into the 1000 to 2000 J/KG range. This should decrease some as we head through this evening and continue to lose the diurnal heating. However, with a strengthening 925-850 mb jet moving up into our area later this evening, this could still be enough to initiate some scattered shower and thunderstorms development through late evening. The other concern is the MCS currently moving east into far western Indiana. The hi res models have been consistently showing this weakening as it moves east across Indiana. The weakening trend seems to begin in the 01Z-02Z timeframe. Will have to keep a close eye on this over the next hour or two. If we do not see a weakening trend, will have to make some upward adjustments to pops and possibly consider a flash flood watch for at least a portion of our western fa as the ground remains saturated. The severe threat also remains uncertain given the potential weakening trend, but would expect the best chance for any severe to be along the nose of the bowing MCS if it makes it into our eastern Indiana counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Front may still be in far northern counties at the beginning of the period but then will quickly lift north in the morning. Region will be in the warm sector through the day and most, if not all, of Sunday night. Cannot rule out a few storms developing with heating, but this only warranted slight chance PoPs Sunday afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread in from the west, mostly after midnight. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s Sunday. Readings will stay quite mild into Sunday evening with more of a drop later in the night as the precipitation overspreads the area. MOS blend seemed to have a reasonable handle on temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will move through on Monday. There is only limited instability therefore only have a chance of thunder early in the day. Shower activity will decrease through the day, however some wrap around moisture will allow for some light shower activity along and north of Interstate 70 through Monday night. Strong low level flow Monday into Tuesday will allow for some wind gusts up to 40 mph. Flow isn`t oriented the best therefore believe that this will limit winds from being even stronger. Dry conditions will be present on Tuesday and most of Tuesday night. A frontal boundary will work into the area on Wednesday allowing for rain shower chances. Better rain chances will work into the region Wednesday night into Thursday as an area of low pressure approaches the region. There are some differences in the exact location of the area of low pressure, however most likely solution is having the low move across southeast portions of the area or just southeast of the area. This will keep temperatures cooler on Thursday with most locations only reaching into the 50s. This system then moves out of the region leaving most of Friday dry. Another system south of the area will bring the chance for some light shower activity to primarily southern portions of the region on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Moist conditions near the ground following recent heavy rain have produced ceilings down to LIFR early in the TAF period. In addition, scattered thunderstorms will affect mainly western sites during the first few hours of the forecast period. Wind shear is expected as well. Conditions should improve to MVFR and then VFR by mid morning as a warm front lifts to Lake Erie allowing thunderstorms and low ceilings to move out and dissipate. South winds are forecast to gust over 20 knots in the warm sector. Late in the TAF period, a strong cold front approaching from the west will produce the chance for more showers and thunderstorms at western sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible again on Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Coniglio

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