Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230814 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 414 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...COVERING A WIDE EXPANSE OF LAND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY STILL REMAINS RATHER AMPLIFIED...BUT WITH RIDGING DEFINITELY THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ONLY MOISTURE FEED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IS WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS SIMPLE AS IT CAN GET...WITH ZERO POPS AND ZERO SKY...AND LIGHT ENE FLOW REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS. YESTERDAY...AS PER THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING...MIXING MADE IT UP TO ABOUT 4500 FEET. EXPECTING SIMILAR MIXING CONDITIONS TODAY...AND BASED ON THE FORECAST 2-3 DEGREE CELSIUS RISES AT 850MB...A RISE IN TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. THE GOING MAX TEMP FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MODEL CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE DRY AIR MASS SUPPORTS A WIDE DIURNAL TREND...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE AS COOL AS THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW OUTLYING AREAS THIS MORNING...A RECOVERY OF A SOLID 30 DEGREES APPEARS A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE ILN CWA WILL REMAIN STUCK RATHER FIRMLY BETWEEN TWO NNE-MOVING STREAMS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CIRRUS FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS COULD MOVE OVER INDIANA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IF NEITHER OF THESE SOURCES OF CLOUDS END UP MOVING OVER THE ILN CWA...IT MAY WELL REMAIN COMPLETELY CLEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT SOME POINT...THINGS MAY MOISTEN UP JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT RH PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT THE VERY EARLIEST. AS OPPOSED TO THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY A BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE OF A FEW DEGREES IN HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...MODEL 850MB/925MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY STAGNANT. ALSO...THE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IS LIGHT AND EASTERLY...NEUTRAL TO VERY SLIGHTLY COOL IN TERMS OF ADVECTION. THUS...THE MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POSSIBLY TRYING TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S/W DIGGING UNDERNEATH THE ESTABLISHED UPPER RIDGE. HAVE KEPT A DRY FCST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE INTO LOW CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ERRED ON THE WARM SIDE OF DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE COOL SIDE OF NIGHTTIME LOWS GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS. THIS STILL PUTS TEMPS ABOUT 7-8 DEG ABOVE NORMAL ON HIGHS AND 4-6 DEG ABOVE ON LOWS. GUIDANCE REALLY ONLY HAD A 2-4 DEG RANGE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...INDICATING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE FCST TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK (IFR VSBYS) EARLY THIS MORNING AND MINOR MVFR VSBYS AT KILN/KLCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...HICKMAN

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