Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 181750
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1250 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017
High pressure will move in today. Low pressure traveling to the
Great Lakes will bring showers back into the forecast late
Thursday into Friday. Mild and mainly dry weather is expected
Saturday in the southerly flow behind the low.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest satellite loop is showing a couple of breaks in the
otherwise expansive low clouds. Expect this to continue this
afternoon into this evening. So backed off on the clearing skies
from the sw that was previously forecast.
Temperatures will have a hard time rising today, with the caa and
lack of solar insolation. Lowered highs in west central OH to the
upper 30s, then allowed a gradual increase to the mid 40s in nrn
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moving across Kentucky to West Virginia should keep
dry weather over the ILN area tonight through early Thursday.
Skies will probably remain partly to mostly cloudy with low level
moisture persisting under an inversion around the periphery of
Low pressure developing to the west on Thursday will move up the
flank of an upper ridge to the vicinity of Chicago by Friday
morning. A stream of moisture carried by a 35 knot low level jet
will be lifted on the warm conveyor belt ahead of the low,
producing widespread rain. Models indicate around a half an inch
of rainfall with this event.
The rain will end Friday morning as the low weakens and redevelops
over the northern plains. A relatively dry southerly flow in the
wake of the low, coupled with above normal geopotential heights
and weak forcing aloft, should result in dry weather conditions
Temperatures will exhibit an upward trend in this warm advection
regime, with highs mainly in the lower 50s Thursday, increasing to
the mid and upper 50s Friday. These anomalously high temperatures
will be occurring when normal highs are in the mid and upper 30s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
In the wake of Fridays closed low there will be a brief period of
subsidence on the backside of the PV, but the main question is how
quickly will the precipitation return. Overall ridging begins to
setup across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States
with an upper level trough over the western United States. The
pattern will be messy though as multiple waves of mid-level energy
can be found in the flow. The GFS is slightly further east with an
upper level low pushing north on the western side of the mid-level
ridge. As this occurs the ridge will slowly start to move east.
The GFS is slightly stronger with this low Saturday and tries to
bring in precip to the area Saturday afternoon across the western
zones. The CMC looks similar to the GFS while the ECMWF is
slightly weaker with the energy Saturday. Looking at forecast
soundings on the GFS for Saturday shows dry air between 850 and
700 mb which would favor a later onset of precipitation. Given the
above have trended the forecast towards the ECMWF solution and
kept Saturday drier.
Sunday, another stronger piece of energy will push east across the
southern United States and wrap up into an upper level low. As this
happens a wedge of PV will push northeast ahead of the low and move
across the ILN forecast area. PWATs at this time again rise to
around 1.00". Forecast soundings on the GFS show some dry air trying
to remain in various levels of the sounding at this time so have
kept PoPs at chance. Seeing how strong the upper level lift
currently looks on the ECMWF and GFS Sunday, PoPs will probably have
to be raised. Sunday into Monday the upper level low will drift
overhead keeping the clouds and a chance of rain in the forecast. It
should be noted that the low looks to be vertically stacked with dry
air entrained. This means that a break in the precip will probably
occur sometime on Monday (possibly in the morning) but given this is
day 7 have just broad brushed the PoPs at this time. On Tuesday the
upper level low will slowly drift east taking the rain and
precipitation with it.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --MVFR/IFR cigs will linger through much of the taf period. Latest
satellite loop is showing low clouds back into IL and down into
TN. As H5 ridging builds into the region tonight along with a
weak sfc high, the low level moisture will start to thin.
Lingered the low cigs until after 06Z, then slowly scattered them
out from s to n. Some mvfr fog could develop as the low clouds
scatter out. High clouds will already be on the increase ahead of
the next weather system. VFR conditions are expected after any
morning for dissipates.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday night
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