Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 300747
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
A chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
weekend as a frontal boundary will remain stalled across the
region. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the first of
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We are still seeing some lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity, primarily across our far southwest and northeast
forecast area. Overall these storms have shown a gradual
weakening trend through the early morning hours and this is likely
to continue through daybreak. Meanwhile, the clouds have hung
around enough so far early this morning to help limit br
development. Will continue to keep an eye on it but for now just
plan on including some patchy fog wording in the forecast through
daybreak or so.
The mid level trough axis will pivot slowly east into the southern
Great Lakes Region through this afternoon. As it does, a weak
surface wave will ride slowly east along a stalled out boundary
currently in place across our area. As we destabilize through the
day, this should lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
once again from late morning into this afternoon. Hi res models
are hinting at the highest pops being across eastern portions of
our fa out ahead of the surface wave so will trend forecast
accordingly. PWs will be a tad lower than Friday, more in the 1.5
to possibly 1.75 inch range, but with slow moving storms, locally
heavy rainfall will once again be possible.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
There should be a downward trend in thunderstorm coverage heading
into this evening as they will be diurnally enhanced. However,
with the mid level trough axis still moving through, will just
taper back to a 20 pop through the overnight hours. The better
energy will then continue to shift east through the day on Sunday.
Will continue with lower end pops, with the best chance across
eastern portions of our forecast area during the afternoon hours.
We will remain in northwest flow aloft Sunday night into Monday
with some models suggesting some possible short wave energy
dropping down toward our area. There is some uncertainty with the
timing and placement for this though. Would think the best chance
for anything would be across southern portions of our area but
given the uncertainty, will maintain a dry forecast for the time
Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the
localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region.
The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and
therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is
the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the
Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z
ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry.
Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the
situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less
to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs
will be in the lower and mid 80s.
H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the
fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with
highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s.
ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and
down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa
Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will
go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will
bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in
the mid to upper 80s.
Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop
towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere
with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of
thunderstorms on Friday.
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have started to come to an end this
morning with the only remaining coverage affecting the Columbus
terminals. This should dissipate soon as the loss of daytime
heating will help to limit coverage. This morning skies will try
to clear a bit from west to east allowing for the chance of fog to
return to the terminals. Towards IND skies have already cleared
some with reduced visibilities being reported. Our western
terminals will have the greatest chance of fog with a slightly
lower chance for the eastern terminals as it will take longer to
During the day today an upper level low will remain just west of
the area bringing another chance of rain. GFS and NAM forecast
soundings show PWATs slightly falling today but still are elevated
for this time of year. Instability is also supportive of more
showers and thunderstorms with k indicies in the mid 30s. Looking
at high res models the highest chance of precip will be just off
to our east today. This makes sense given the position of the
low. Have added vicinity into all of the TAFs but think the best
chance will be at KCMH/ KLCK due to them being further east.
Showers and thunderstorms will then again come to an end this
evening as the sunsets and daytime heating is lost.
OUTLOOK...Slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday.