Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300747 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A chance for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend as a frontal boundary will remain stalled across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the first of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... We are still seeing some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily across our far southwest and northeast forecast area. Overall these storms have shown a gradual weakening trend through the early morning hours and this is likely to continue through daybreak. Meanwhile, the clouds have hung around enough so far early this morning to help limit br development. Will continue to keep an eye on it but for now just plan on including some patchy fog wording in the forecast through daybreak or so. The mid level trough axis will pivot slowly east into the southern Great Lakes Region through this afternoon. As it does, a weak surface wave will ride slowly east along a stalled out boundary currently in place across our area. As we destabilize through the day, this should lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development once again from late morning into this afternoon. Hi res models are hinting at the highest pops being across eastern portions of our fa out ahead of the surface wave so will trend forecast accordingly. PWs will be a tad lower than Friday, more in the 1.5 to possibly 1.75 inch range, but with slow moving storms, locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... There should be a downward trend in thunderstorm coverage heading into this evening as they will be diurnally enhanced. However, with the mid level trough axis still moving through, will just taper back to a 20 pop through the overnight hours. The better energy will then continue to shift east through the day on Sunday. Will continue with lower end pops, with the best chance across eastern portions of our forecast area during the afternoon hours. We will remain in northwest flow aloft Sunday night into Monday with some models suggesting some possible short wave energy dropping down toward our area. There is some uncertainty with the timing and placement for this though. Would think the best chance for anything would be across southern portions of our area but given the uncertainty, will maintain a dry forecast for the time being. Highs both Sunday and Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period begins with a weak H5 trof over the Great Lakes. In the localized nw flow, the models are dropping weak s/w into the region. The models are handling these weak disturbances differently and therefore are producing a variety of solution. The GEM hemispheric is the most aggressive as it drops a MCS thru IN and KY nicking the Tri-State region with pcpn. The GFS and to a less extent the 12Z ECMWF pop a little QPF along the Ohio River. The 00Z ECMWF was dry. Confidence is too low that the models have a handle on the situation so will continue to carry a 10 PoP in the south and less to across the nrn counties, therefore going dry. It looks like highs will be in the lower and mid 80s. H5 ridge builds in Monday night and Tuesday, which should keep the fa dry and mostly sunny. Temps will warm a couple of degrees with highs on Tuesday, into the mid and upper 80s. ECMWF continues to be the outlier, as it drops an MCS out of MN and down towards the fa Tuesday night, then bringing it across the fa Wednesday. The ECMWF has showing this for a couple of runs now. Will go with a 20 PoP to show the possibility. Hopefully future runs will bring the models into better agreement. Kept highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. Thursday looks like another dry day, then a cdfnt will start to drop towards the area for Friday. An increasingly unstable atmosphere with interact with the forcing from the front to bring a chance of thunderstorms on Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have started to come to an end this morning with the only remaining coverage affecting the Columbus terminals. This should dissipate soon as the loss of daytime heating will help to limit coverage. This morning skies will try to clear a bit from west to east allowing for the chance of fog to return to the terminals. Towards IND skies have already cleared some with reduced visibilities being reported. Our western terminals will have the greatest chance of fog with a slightly lower chance for the eastern terminals as it will take longer to clear there. During the day today an upper level low will remain just west of the area bringing another chance of rain. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show PWATs slightly falling today but still are elevated for this time of year. Instability is also supportive of more showers and thunderstorms with k indicies in the mid 30s. Looking at high res models the highest chance of precip will be just off to our east today. This makes sense given the position of the low. Have added vicinity into all of the TAFs but think the best chance will be at KCMH/ KLCK due to them being further east. Showers and thunderstorms will then again come to an end this evening as the sunsets and daytime heating is lost. OUTLOOK...Slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.