Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250247 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1047 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO PULL EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RISING HUMIDITY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND FLOW OVER OHIO VALLEY BACKING SRLY LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC LIFTING NORTH INTO CENTRAL TN. HRRR AND RAP SOLNS SHOW THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING AND PUSHING INTO ILN/S SW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF PCPN AND WITH WITH LACK OF INSTBY HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. WITH SRLY WINDS STAYING UP AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN TEMPERATURE WILL BE MILDER TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME DISLODGED MONDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO PUSH EAST AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LINE OF PVA SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS THIN LINE OF PVA WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWER END INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. THIS ALL SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KTS. BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE OF PVA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY HELP TO CLEAN UP THE FLOW AND MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH TO THE EAST PUTTING THE AREA INTO A RRQ. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY HAVE CAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDING STILL IS TAKING ON A SKINNY CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR WIND BUT THIS THREAT STILL REMAINS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE PCPN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...WILL TRY TO SHOW SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES. A BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL THEN RETURN LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM HESITANT TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...SOME MORE SEASONABLE READINGS MAY RETURN FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LOW OVER ROCKIES AND A RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE SE US. THIS RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT A LTL EAST WITH FLOW BACKING SWRLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS LATE. INITIAL S/W AXIS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VORT LOBE TO PIVOT NE THRU OHIO MONDAY AFTN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTBY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE LIMITED MENTION IN TAFS TO VCSH BETWEEN 17Z AND 24Z. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR

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