Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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014 FXUS61 KILN 042002 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 402 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEER WEST/NORTHWEST. APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINING WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDER A POSSIBILITY INTO THIS EVENING AS INCREASING FORCING ARRIVES ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING LIFT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL WRAP UP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE IN A POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS COMPLETE WITH BEING IN THE CORE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/60S ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS BUILDING HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S TONIGHT AND MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SATURDAY WILL FIND THE REGION IN A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LARGER CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS OHIO...AS WELL AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP TO PUSH ACROSS ILN...GENERALLY STARTING IN THE NW CWA IN THE MORNING...EXPANDING THROUGH 18Z...AND COVERING THE MUCH OF THE CWA BY 0Z SUNDAY. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS OF THE COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH KY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH PRECIP FINALLY COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING /EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER/ AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM BEHIND. THIS AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER...WITH STRONG NRLY FLOW RESULTING IN GOOD CAA. WHILE SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S...CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH POPS BACK NORTHWARD AND ACROSS ILN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND PRECIP OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OHIO FASTER. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...BEST PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LIKELY STICK TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT THE RETURN OF WAA...WITH LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MID AND UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE /OR CLOSED LOW ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE INCOMING BOUNDARY...STRONG WAA IN PLACE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF COAST...COULD WILL BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING MUCH OF ILN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. BEST COVERAGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS CLOSER FROM THE WEST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SUBSEQUENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW LOW MOISTURE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GUSEMAN NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/FRANKS LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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