Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221122 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 622 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WARM AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED AS IT WORKS INTO CENTRAL OHIO. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OHIO BECAUSE OF THIS. EARLIER DISCUSION... ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINING WITH A WEAK H5 DISTURBANCE IS PULLING MOISTURE AND PCPN UP FROM THE GULF. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY IN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING AS THE PCPN COMES IN. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE AN SPS OUT DESCRIBING THE SITUATION AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THAT. PCPN LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT A SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE EAST BY MID MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ANY PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS S/W WILL PIVOT UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. A STRONG H8 JET WILL HELP FOCUS THE LIFT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRONG WAA WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. A STRONG COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN EWD BY A SHARP H5 TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS RUN. LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WITH BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS MONDAY. HUNG ONTO THE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FROPA AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THERE IS A HINT OF SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN AGAIN, && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION. BEST MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE KEPT IT DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CAA INDUCED STRATOCUMULUS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. FOR THE UPCOMING TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING...ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. IN EITHER CASE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS TEMPERATURES BECOME COLDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS THEY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH A HIGHER OCCURRENCE NOTED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KDAY. CIGS 5-7KFT WILL LOWER IN THE SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR TO APPROACH THE THRESHOLD MVFR 3KFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR...BUT TEMPS MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE FREEZING RAIN WHEN THEY DO FALL. ZR IS NOT EXPECTED AT KCVG/KLUK AS THE WARM AIR THAT GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHOWERS WILL HIT THEM FIRST...AND THEY HAVE AN EVEN LOWER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE THAN OTHER SITES. KCMH/KLCK COULD GO EITHER WAY AND I WAS LEANING TOWARDS NOT FREEZING BUT INCLUDED A 2 HOUR PERIOD OF ZR TO BE CAUTIOUSLY PESSIMISTIC HERE. REMOVED GUSTS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY IN FAVOR OF A 12-13KT SUSTAINED WIND THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT KDAY. DAYTIME CIGS WILL BE 6-8KFT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045- 046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082. KY...NONE. IN...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS

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