Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291149 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 749 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop today along a slow moving warm front. Drier conditions are expected Sunday when the warm front is forecast to be near Lake Erie. A strong cold front accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds will push through early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Warm front situated near the Ohio River is the focus for thunderstorms development. Thunderstorms are resulting from moisture transported on a 35 knot low level jet lifting over the front in the presence of multiple mid level short waves. These thunderstorms are forming in an environment containing little to no surface based CAPE, while elevated CAPE is near 1000 J/KG. Torrential rain and isolated damaging wind and large hail have been occurring with the thunderstorms, which have been training across the same locations. Radar estimates indicate over 2 inches of rain so far mainly near the Ohio River. Models suggest the front will be lifting north across the area today. Expect thunderstorms to continue to develop, and torrential downpours will persist with the airmass holding 1.6 inches of PWAT. Will keep flash flood watch in effect through 11 am. Based on latest radar and model trends, have expanded watch in area to include parts of Central Ohio including Columbus. Thunderstorms have generally weakened below severe limits early this morning. However, daytime heating may allow more severe cells to develop later this morning and this afternoon as instability rise with daytime heating. Temperatures will vary notably with respect to frontal position. Highs are expected to reach the mid 80s far south, the mid 70s near I-70, and the mid 60s far north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Warm front will be north of the area near the Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. Expect only a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in this weather regime lacking deep moisture and favorable forcing. Southerly breezes in the warm sector will carry warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80s forecast for all locations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong cold front extending from well stacked low pressure will move in from the west late Sunday night through Monday morning. A band of showers and thunderstorm will develop along the front and move across the area by Monday afternoon. Strong southwest winds will usher in cooler temperatures behind the cold front, with gusts reaching 40 mph Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather, and gradually subsiding winds. The next low pressure system is forecast to track into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, producing the likelihood for showers. Shower chances will linger Friday under an upper trough following the surface low. Expected conditions at the surface and aloft point to a cooling trend. Near normal highs in the upper 60s Monday will slip to the lower 60s by Friday under cold advection, clouds and precip. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Slow moving front is the focus for thunderstorms that will continue to impact TAF sites with less than ideal flight conditions. Improvement to VFR is expected by noon at southern sites as the front lifts to Northern Ohio, carrying thunderstorms with it. MVFR conditions accompanying the thunderstorms will tend to persist until late afternoon at northern sites closer to the front. Wind direction will vary with frontal movement, with east winds becoming south by the end of the forecast. VFR should prevail late in the forecast as drier air arrives in the warm sector. South winds will gust over 20 knots at CVG near the end of their 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ042- 051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Coniglio

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