Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151638 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1138 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface low will track through the Great Lakes today, bringing a chance of light snow to northern Ohio. A surface ridge builds into the region tonight into Saturday. Persistent southwesterly flow will bring warmer temperatures into the area for the upcoming weekend, along with a chance of rain on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Not easy to draw in grids for cloud cover this morning, with several bands/swaths of clouds at different levels, and a few brief breaks to clear mixing in, especially in the southern half of the forecast area. A bigger concern is whether or not lift and steepening low level lapse rates associated with the Great Lakes trough will be enough to develop any snow showers across central Ohio today -- and the lack of moisture might point away from any suggestions that accumulating snow will be likely to occur. Flurries look like a near certainty, especially based on current upstream observations. No changes are necessary to current T/Td/Wind forecasts. Previous discussion > H5 s/w will swing across the Great Lakes today. A weak sfc low will develop and move through nrn Lake Huron. Trend of the 00Z models has been to move the pcpn farther north today, closer to the center of the low where the lift is better. Held onto some low chance PoPs in Central Ohio this afternoon, as the lift maximizes. Skies will remain mostly cloudy as low level moisture will continue to pool ahead of cold front dropping into nrn Ohio. Surface pressure gradient will increase this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 kts will be possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will rise to around 30 in the north, and the mid 30s across the south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the H5 s/w pulls away tonight, a sfc ridge will build into the ern Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Clouds will linger tonight, helping keep temperatures up. Lows will range from the mid to upper 20s. Mid level ridge will begin to build in on Saturday. Southerly flow on Saturday will push temperatures a little above normal. Highs on Saturday to range from the lower 40s in the north to the upper 40s in the south. The ridge will hold on Saturday night, bringing mostly clear skies. For Sunday, the consensus of the models is to slow the onset of pcpn. This should allow temperatures to warm enuf that pcpn should fall as all liquid. Although the extended models agree on slowing down the onset, they disagree on coverage for Sunday. The NAM leaves the region dry, while the GFS brings in some scattered rain. The ECMWF and Canadian bring in a bigger swath of QPF. Ran a blend, which lowered PoPs down to high chance. Highs will range from 40 to 45 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In split flow regime model solutions differ on phasing and timing of pcpn. Will follow a progressive soln with pcpn ending during the day Monday and then re-introduce a slight chc late Monday night into early Tuesday with mean trof developing across the Great Lakes. Temperatures looks to continue a little above normal with Monday and Tuesdays highs ranging from the the lower/mid 40s north to around 50 south. In northwest flow regime surface high pressure to build into the region at mid week. This high will offer dry weather with the next chance of rain holding off until Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. Reading warm above normal Thursday with highs of 45 to 50. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Generally VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through the current forecast period. The only concern for MVFR ceilings will be during a period of time this afternoon and possibly into the early evening, but this should be limited to MVFR ceilings in the 2kft-3kft range. There is a very slim chance of some flurries at the DAY/CMH/LCK airports, but with no expected impacts to conditions. Gusty WSW winds will die down overnight, as any low clouds move east of the area, with some mid-level clouds moving in through early morning. Winds will increase from the WSW tomorrow, but with generally clear skies expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from Sunday night through Monday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites NEAR TERM...Hatzos/Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.