Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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692 FXUS61 KILN 201751 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1251 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm air will remain across the region until a cold front moves through late tonight and Wednesday morning. An unsettled pattern will ensue with multiple rounds of rain into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High res models continue to suggest the possibility of a few showers popping up and affecting the far northwest portions of our fa over the next few hours. However, any pcpn that does develop should lift quickly north of the area through early afternoon with the majority of our area remaining dry today. Southerly winds and WAA will continue through this afternoon. It looks like we could end up with a fair amount of sun, at least across southeast portions of our area today. This should allow for some decent mixing and will nudge up winds a bit through this afternoon. This will also help push temperatures well into the 70s for highs today with even some lower 80s not out of the question across the far southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Expect little precipitation to occur in warm sector. But there will be widespread showers along and behind a cold front that will cross the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. 00Z models showing minor timing discrepancies, which given the time of day it is moving through will have a big impact on lows tonight and highs tomorrow. High resolution guidance is the fastest while the NAM is the slowest. A mean of all models would put the front very near the I-71 corridor at 12Z. Some very limited instability may develop along the front, so cannot completely rule out a bit of embedded thunder. Rainfall does not look excessive, although with wet ground, there could still be some minor problem areas, particularly in northwest counties. After the front passes, temperatures will fall rather dramatically before steadying out later in the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An active weather pattern will be in place for much of the long term period. Wet conditions will be in place at the start of the long term. Went close to guidance values for low temperatures Wednesday night. This will allow for low temperatures just north of Dayton and Columbus to be below freezing. Easterly flow at the surface will keep the cooler temperatures in places at the surface while aloft warmer air is present. Due to this freezing rain will be possible Wednesday night. Cannot rule out some sleet and snow across this area as well, however think predominate precipitation type will be rain and then freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. WPC also indicates the freezing rain potential in the same area. Impacts could be mitigated with warmer air in place in the days leading up to this event, however will have to watch closely. There will still be the potential for some slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces. South of Dayton and Columbus temperatures should be warm enough that precipitation will remain rain. Added freezing rain and sleet mention in the HWO. In addition to the winter threats, there is also the isolated flooding potential with the rain that occurs Wednesday night into Thursday. Models diverge for Thursday on whether another area of low pressure approaches the region like is advertised with the ECMWF or if drier conditions occur as with the GFS. Went with a blend and have the highest precipitation chances across the south on Thursday. By Friday models are in agreement on bringing another wave of precipitation and area of low pressure up into the region although there are still some differences in the exact placement of the area of low pressure. There is some instability primarily southeast of Interstate 71 and therefore have a chance of thunderstorms in during the day on Friday across this area. Yet another low and wave of rain will move into the region late Friday night into Saturday. There is again the potential for thunder during the day on Saturday south of Dayton to Columbus where there is better instability. A strong cold front will push through late Saturday night into Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible with the front and therefore have thunder mention in across the entire forecast area in advance of this feature. With the strong wind field associated with this feature cannot rule out some isolated damaging winds. With the passage of this front winds will become quite gusty. The GFS is more pronounced with this than the ECMWF. Increased wind gusts on Sunday, however did not go as high as the GFS. Capped wind gusts around 40 mph at this time. With CAA on Sunday temperatures will drop some through the day. Cu will also be possible due to this. The several rounds of rainfall that are expected in the long term period will lead to rises on area creeks and streams, along with he potential for flooding. Continued this mention in the HWO. The long term will end with dry conditions on Monday with high pressure across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this afternoon with occasional gusts to around 35 knots possible. A cold front will push southeast across the region later tonight through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected through this evening, but as the front approaches, clouds will thicken up and lower overnight, eventually dropping into MVFR late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Then as we get on the backside of the front, cigs may drop into IFR for a period later Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Showers will also accompany the front, spreading in from the northwest late tonight and then continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. This will also lead to MVFR to occasional IFR vsbys through the later part of the TAF period. Finally, there may also be a brief window of LLWS later tonight, especially at the central Ohio TAFs, but have left the mention out of the TAFs at the moment due to the relatively short duration. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Thursday. At least MVFR conditions are likely to continue through Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record High Minimum Temperatures for February 20... CVG...52 degrees...1994 CMH...49 degrees...1930 DAY...49 degrees...1930
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL CLIMATE...

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