Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281024 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 624 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT SKIES HAVE OTHERWISE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. THIS COULD PUT THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE AT CINCINNATI OF 37 DEGREES IN JEOPARDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. IN DEVELOPING WAA...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING PCPN SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH. BY THIS TIME THOUGH...PCPN SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST SO WILL KEEP PCPN AS ALL RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION. WENT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KCMH AND KLCK HAVE RECENTLY GONE MVFR AND HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THIN BANDS OF STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE SEEN ON LOW LIGHT THIS MORNING. OVERALL STILL EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THOUGH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUNDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE SUNRISES SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY START TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE STOUT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...HAINES

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