Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 150602 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 202 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level disturbance will pass south of the region offering a few light showers early this morning. A weak cold front will approach the area this afternoon and stall across the region tonight into Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible with this front this afternoon. An enhanced chance of storms will occur later Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and a cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A few showers are persisting across our far southeast in association with a weak mid level disturbance. Will therefore continue with 20 to 30 pops down that way into the overnight hours. Otherwise, it looks like a fair amount of mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across the region through the night so have made some minor upward adjustments to sky conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Short wave tracking across the Great Lakes on Tuesday will cause a weak cold front to approach the area and then slide into northern counties Tuesday night. Forcing is quite weak with little if any convergence along the boundary. But with glancing upper support and increased moisture, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms in northern counties during peak heating. Temperatures will rise to above normal with highs into the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak frontal boundary will be across our northern CWFA Wednesday morning. Then, as the upper level flow begins to amplify Wednesday into Wednesday night, a warm front will pivot northeast into the region from the southwest, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precipitation this week still looks to occur on Thursday when an embedded s/wv moving across the Great Lakes will combine with decent moisture transport well ahead of a cold front in the low levels to bring the likelihood of showers/thunderstorms. It should also be quite muggy with dewpoints in the lower to perhaps mid 70s. The surface cold front will slowly move east through the region Thursday night into Friday. This will bring an end to the pcpn threat once the front clears the region. For Saturday into Sunday, a mean mid level trough will move through the Great Lakes. As this occurs, surface high pressure will begin to build into the region on Saturday, then settle over the region on Sunday. Diurnal cumulus will lead to partly cloudy skies on Saturday with mostly sunny conditions for Sunday as stronger subsidence takes hold. For Monday, the day of the Great American Eclipse, models indicate that the surface high will be moving east, but will extend across the region. The ECMWF suggest mostly sunny skies while the GFS tries to bring some convective debris clouds east into the region from upstream convection from an embedded s/wv moving into the mid Mississippi Valley. For now, will go more toward the ECMWF which does not show as strong as a disturbance and is much slower. Temperatures will not be too far from climate normals through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Expect mainly mid and high level cloudiness across the area through the early morning hours. A moist low level and light winds will lead to patchy fog this morning, especially across the southeast. Have MVFR to IFR vsbys at all but KDAY. Any fog/stratus will improve quickly this morning. A weak front will drop down from the northwest through this afternoon which could lead to an isolated shower/thunderstorm across the north. Expect main threat to remain north of the TAF sites, so have omitted any mention of thunderstorms. In moist airmass expect MVFR vsbys in fog to develop again tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday and Thursday night.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...AR

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