Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 100246 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 946 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Snow showers will come to an end overnight. Weak high pressure will then build into the area later tonight into Sunday. A clipper system will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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500 mb shortwave trof continues to swing through the fa. This will bring an end to the snow showers as the fetch off the lakes also ends. Low clouds will linger for the first part of the overnight, then the back edge of the low clouds will work into the sw after midnight, and will gradually work e through the region. However, some high clouds associated with more upper level energy will be spilling into the region. Temperatures will continue to drop, reaching the lower 20s by morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Forecast area will remain in a northwest flow aloft through the short term. A couple of disturbances are forecast to drop southeast across the region. First, a weak ridge of high pressure will move east across the region on Sunday. Stratocumlus clouds will be replaced by mid level altocumulus as one such disturbance passes through during the day. Although we will begin to warm air advect, clouds across the region, especially north, will limit warmth. Highs will range from the lower to mid 30s. For Sunday night, another disturbance will quickly move in behind the first one. This feature, along with a weak trof axis, should only result in clouds. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level shortwave will enter the region from the northwest on Monday and create a chance for some light snow north of metropolitan Dayton during the day, then spreading ese towards Columbus in the evening and spreading slightly to the southwest and Cincy metro area overnight. A lingering lake enhanced band may affect the region on Tuesday, primarily running from north of Dayton to along and south of Columbus. This will die out during the day Tuesday and the threat for any precipitation will remain in a lull until Wednesday night when the next surface low tracks through the Great Lakes and receives some support with the passage of an upper level shortwave. This activity should peak early Thursday at this moment in the forecast process. Dry conditions will be favored from Thursday night onward. Temperatures for this forecast period will be cool and below freezing through Wednesday, then warm slightly on Thursday to the low 30s in the north and around 40 south of the Ohio River. A brief cooling period will occur Friday behind the Thursdays front, with a warmup into the 40s expected Saturday given a good southerly flow and high pressure to the southeast of the region. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An area of lake effect snow showers is working se through the tafs at the start of the period. The flow off Lake Michigan is already ending, so expect this area to be the last significant snow area which will reduce visibilities. Inside the area there has been reports down to a mile. The area of snow showers should be out of the tafs by 03Z allowing the vsbys to go VFR. However MVFR cigs will linger until after 06Z, when the backedge should start to work w to e through the tafs, clearing CMH/LCK by 12Z. However a quick moving disturbance in a northwest flow aloft will already be bringing mid and high clouds over the region. Winds will be locally gusty between 15 and 20 knots from the southwest ahead of a weak surface trof. Ceilings will continue to lower throughout the day. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Sites

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