Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171351 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 951 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A large scale mid level trough will dig southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into Monday. This scenario will bring much colder temperatures to the region along with the threat for a few snow showers on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Skies are clear across the area this morning. We should see some diurnal cu development later this morning into early afternoon with skies becoming mostly cloudy across our north. With some weak instability developing, a few rain and snow showers may even be possible across our far north. Afternoon highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Embedded mid level energy will continue to allow aforementioned large scale mid level trough to pivot southeast toward our area. We will actually see clouds decrease this evening/overnight as diurnal instability wanes. With decoupling, gusty winds will subside as well. As the low level flow (around 850 mb) becomes more northwest and colder, some lake effect snow showers will develop downwind of Lake Michigan overnight. A few of these may reach our far northwest forecast area toward morning. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s. On Monday, the mid level trough will pivot southeast across the region. Cold northwest flow off of Lake Michigan will supply low level moisture to much of the region. And with diurnal heating, shallow instability will increase as the day progresses. This will result in skies become mostly cloudy to cloudy by the afternoon hours. And with these clouds intersecting the favorable dendritic growth zone, some snow showers and/or flurries will be possible. The best chance will be downwind of Lake Michigan which favors our northern half of the forecast area. Some light accumulations could occur briefly on grassy/elevated surfaces, especially across the higher terrain of west central Ohio. It will be colder than Sunday. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. For Monday night, a surface ridge axis will pivot southeast into the Ohio Valley while the mid level trough axis moves east. Low level flow will back away from Michigan, which should eventually help reduce the cold moisture fetch into our region. The question will be how quickly diurnally driven flurries and snow showers will diminish from west to east during the evening. Overnight lows will once again drop into the mid and upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Progressive northwesterly flow looks to be on tap for much of the extended period. On Tuesday, a surface ridge quickly shifts off to the east as a mid-level disturbance moves into the Great Lakes. While precipitation should stay to our north with this system, an increasing gradient will likely lead to gusty winds in the afternoon. Associated cold front will quietly move through Tuesday night with another surface high pressure ridge building into the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. The trend in the guidance is for cooler conditions under the high. This trend is more pronounced in the operational ECMWF with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s on Thursday. Based on this, the national blend has cooled its Thursday highs down into the 40s, and we have followed suit in our forecast grids. Will need to continue to keep an eye on these trends moving forward. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the global models as to the approach of a potential shortwave Thursday night into Friday morning. Have low PoPs for now due to the spread in the guidance. Pattern may begin to shift by next weekend as mid- level ridging attempts to build into the lower Ohio Valley in response to a digging shortwave trough over the High Plains. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For today, a piece of mid level energy withing a larger scale mid level trough across the Great Lakes will dig east/southeast across Lake Michigan and Lake Erie. Colder air moving over these lakes, along with diurnal instability, may bring a few spotty rain and/or rain/snow showers mixed north of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. Winds will increase from the northwest once again due to decent diurnal mixing, becoming sustained between 10 and 18 knots with gusts between 20 and 25 knots. Some higher based cumulus clouds (VFR) will develop in the afternoon, mainly across the northern terminals. For tonight, more embedded mid level energy will dig into the western Great Lakes with more colder air beginning to filter into the region from the northwest. We should see a break in clouds due to loss of diurnal heating and the coldest of air not arriving until Monday. Gustiness will settle down as well. Thus, VFR conditions are forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities possible Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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