Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 272038 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 438 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east of the area this afternoon. High pressure will briefly build in behind the front tonight. A frontal boundary will develop into the region late Friday and linger near the area into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Cold front bisecting the forecast area will move out of our counties by 6 pm. A bit of instability is developing ahead of the boundary, so some thunder may occur. But for the most part expecting scattered showers. High pressure will build in from the southwest overnight. This will allow skies to clear in the evening. However, expect mid to high clouds to start spreading back in before daybreak. Appears that there may be some valley fog across the southeast where clouds will be later to develop. MOS blend looked reasonable for lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move off to the east Friday morning. An east-west front will begin to develop into the southwest counties in the afternoon. This front will become sharper and lift into the northern part of the forecast area Friday night. Some showers may develop in western counties before the end of the day. But activity will increase overnight as mid level short wave moves through southwest flow which will induce a low level jet, enhancing lift. Models are spreading elevated instability across the region which could be sufficient for some severe storms with large hail. In addition, there is a risk of heavy rainfall. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on details. Given model differences, forecast has leaned quite a bit on the SREF. Forecast temperatures are on the warmer side of guidance. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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While the models agree that there will be a frontal boundary stretched across the region on Saturday, there remains to differences in the placement and the timing of convection. Majority of the models have the front and the pcpn running from central Indiana northeast into northwest Ohio as dawn breaks on Saturday. As sfc low move ne up the front in the ne TX and ern OK, the front buckles northward on Saturday, allowing the srn edge of the pcpn work also work northward. With the region split by the front, there will be a wide range in temperatures. Highs in the se will push into the mid 80s, while locations in the nw will remain in the mid to upper 60s. The region will be warm sectored on Sunday. An isolated storm will be possible in the heating. Highs on Sunday will push into the 80s. For Sunday night into Monday an ejecting H5 low will push a strong cold front ewd up the Ohio Valley. Line of convection will reach the fa late Sunday night and may be lingering in the eastern counties at the beginning of Monday. Behind the front, much colder air will work into the region. The GFS is the wettest with the wrap around moisture. Ran a blend of the PoPs for the middle of the week by carry low chance PoPs. Highs will be in the 60s. By the end of the week, temperatures another cutoff low pushes another round of pcpn east of the Mississippi.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold front will move through the Columbus terminals in the next few hours. Showers and possibly some thunder may occur immediately along the front. Winds shift to west southwest behind the front and will be gusty until around 00Z. Generally VFR ceilings will occur through the afternoon. These clouds will diminish in the evening. High pressure will build in overnight allowing for winds to weaken further and then back to the south southeast before 12Z. This direction will persist through the end of the TAF period. Appears that valley fog will develop which will bring some visibility restrictions to KLUK overnight. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday and then again Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Sunday into Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.