Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 270608
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
208 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
High pressure over the southeast United States will result in
continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through
the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm
temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at
times into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The ILN CWA has been precipitation-free for a few hours, and in
the wake of the convective complex that clipped the region a few
hours ago, conditions have appeared relatively stable. The 00Z
KILN sounding indicated a fairly strong warm layer at around
900mb, without even any signs of elevated instability above it.
There have been some models suggesting that precipitation will
develop over the lower Ohio Valley and move into the region
overnight, ahead of some sort of weak convergent boundary that may
move northeast into the region. However, current radar suggests
that the nearest convective development in the middle Mississippi
Valley has been trending more toward backbuilding, and the
boundary is not really showing any signs as of yet of a northward
motion. Thus, especially given the stable conditions, a dry
forecast will be maintained through most of the overnight period
(with just a slight chance of showers in the southwestern CWA near
morning). PoPs were adjusted for this scenario, but the changes
were generally only minor. Temperatures, sky, and winds all looked
to be on track from the previous forecast.
Previous Discussion >
Thunderstorms in southeastern CWA have devolved into some showers
and are showing a continued weakening trend as they exit to the
southeast this evening. Have removed thunder overnight and also
took out that slight chance in the western third of CWA that was
in earlier forecast for the predawn hours.
Models are not suggesting rainfall overnight but the threat could
re-insert itself at just about any time. Will need to monitor low
level flow for anything that may sprout upstream and closely look
at cloud cover overnight for potential clearing and lower
Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid 60s for most locations.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern remains as previously stated and there were not any
significant areas to touch on to make any noteworthy changes.
Southerly flow will continue and mid-atmospheric impulses will
combine with the heating of the day to have an increased threat
for storms in the afternoon. Cannot rule out that these
disturbances continue a storm into the evening or overnight hours.
Models are not able to determine the state of the atmosphere in a
mesoscale fashion at this time tomorrow (at least with enough run
to run/model to model consistency to me). This leads to a
necessary fuzziness to the forecast with generic slight chance to
chance of storms through the period, maximized with the peak
daytime heating and diminishing overnight.
Temperatures will also be similar through the weekend with highs
topping out in the mid 80s and overnight lows bottoming out in the
mid 60s. A few spots may top out in the upper 80s tomorrow given
enough sunny breaks. A little more cloud cover on Saturday should
inhibit runaway temperatures on this day.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period begins with a H5 S/W lifting out of the upper
MS valley into the wrn Great Lakes. At the sfc, the region remains
under the same moist, unstable summer like atmosphere, so expect
diurnal convection to pop up again on Sunday.
Late Sunday night into Monday as weak front or sfc boundary works
into the region, which will slowly suppress the chance of convection
south of the region. By Monday evening...sfc ridging has built down
thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...bringing stable air at
the sfc and aloft. This should bring dry conditions to the region
By Wednesday, the remains of the weak tropical system that moved
thru the se U.S. may bring added moisture to the region along with
the return of scattered thunderstorms. For Thursday, the models are
currently in agreement in pushing a front through the region. This
should bring a more organized chance of thunderstorms.
Highs Sunday and Monday will remain in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday
will only be a tad cooler before Wednesday sees highs back to the
lower to mid 80s. Lows should remain in the lower to mid 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Generally just expect some mid and high clouds across the TAF
sites during the overnight hours. Although some cloud cover will
be present cannot rule out some brief MVFR VSBYS at the TAF sites.
At KLUK expect VSBYS to be variable between VFR and VLIFR at
Hi res models keep slowing onset on weak shower activity
across the TAF sites. Added a couple to a few hour period of VCSH
to the TAFs for this morning after sunrise from southwest to
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
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