Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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077 FXUS61 KILN 200200 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak and dry cold front will wash out overnight, while high pressure strengthens over the Ohio Valley into Friday. High pressure will then extend across the region into Saturday. The next weather system to affect the area will arrive late Sunday into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A weak cold front will wash out over the area overnight. Typically with this type of scenario there would be a better fog potential, however with dry airmass in place decided to limit fog to the river valley locations at this time. Will continue to watch as temp dewpoint spreads have decreased. Made only minor adjustments to temperatures with lows in the 40s to around 50. In general just expect some high clouds across the region through the overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... During the day Friday mid level ridging will continue during the afternoon with 500 mb heights around 586 dm. 850 mb temperatures are expected to rise to around 15 degrees C with low level thicknesses (1000/ 850mb) increasing to around 1385 m. Both of the aforementioned values would indicate highs in the mid 70s Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Well advertised pattern change is still expected to take place during this period. While large scale changes are in good agreement, there are discrepancies in the details of how this evolves. Main differences are in the southern stream closing off over the mid Mississippi Valley and how fast that opens up and gets absorbed into the developing long wave trough. The other is how quick/deep the northern stream energy is that carves out this trough. In general, there is a trend towards a slightly slower progression. Thus very warm temperatures will persist through the weekend. Some showers could work into western counties Sunday afternoon, but it is more likely that showers will hold off until later. Unsettled conditions will occur Sunday night through Monday night with a cold front gradually working across the region. Some showers could linger into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures will move in with Wednesday still looking to be the coolest day of the week with highs around 10 degrees below normal. The amplified upper pattern will be progressive, so as the trough moves east, short wave ridging will work in on Thursday. Thus it will dry out by then although cool conditions will continue. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some fog will be possible overnight at KCVG, KILN, and KLUK. Only went with tempo MVFR at KCVG and KILN, however have lower visibilities at KLUK due to river valley fog. Otherwise expect VFR conditions across the TAF sites. Some high clouds will move across the region through the TAF period. Winds are expected to be light and less than 10 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM... AVIATION...Novak

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