Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 101421 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 921 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east across the region today offering continued cold temperatures. A low pressure system will eject northeast from the plains into the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday night. Snow will develop ahead of this system across the Great Lakes tonight and then a mix of rain and snow, before ending on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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We are still seeing a few lingering flurries across parts of our north so will linger a mention there through the remainder of the morning. Otherwise as low level flow backs, the lower clouds and any flurry activity will continue to erode away from the south, leaving mainly just some mid and high level cloudiness through the rest of the day. Highs today will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s in the far south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level flow backs with s/w and associated surface wave ejecting from the central plains to the Great Lakes on Sunday/sunday night. Waa/isentropic lift pcpn develops in the form of snow across ILN/s far northern counties tonight. Numerical model trends continue to look a little further north. Have a chance of snow from about I-70 north with likely pops across the far north by morning. Perhaps an inch or two of snow across the far north overnight. Lows tonight to range from the lower 20s far north to the mid 20s far south. WAA pcpn continues to slide east across ILN/s nrn counties Sunday morning with pcpn filling in from the west durg the late afternoon as favorable lift develops associated with 8H 60 kt low level jet. Expect pcpn to remain snow across the far north through most of the day with a snow to rain/snow mix acrs the central and south. Eventually under the influence of waa, the entire cwa turns over to rain Sunday night. An additional additional inch or so of snow accumulation is possible prior to the change to rain across the far north. Temperatures on Sunday will warm to the mid 30s far north to the lower 40s far south. Under the the influence of good WAA with 60 kt southerly low level jet pivoting across the area, expect non-diurnal temperatures Sunday night with early lows from near 30 far north to 40 far south. Have categorical pops with rain across the entire FA. Surface cold front to pivot east thru ILN/s fa Monday with all pcpn coming to an end. Expect early highs from the mid 30s far nw to the upper 40s se with temperatures dropping off in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure at the surface will be ushered in behind a surface cold front and it and last until about Wednesday. On Wednesday, the zonal H5 flow will contain a broad trough pushing in from the west and a broad area of frontogenetic forcing will occur in the mid levels over the eastern U.S. European model is quicker to push the deeper moisture east on Wednesday and subsequently much lighter in any potential for snow. Temperatures should remain cool and thicknesses support snow for the remainder of the forecast. High pressure builds at the surface Wednesday night and dries out the region through Friday. Models continue to advertise a cool extended period with below normal readings regardless of the timing or placement differences of the Wednesday system. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low level moisture circulating around high pressure is decreasing, allowing VFR at all TAF sites. Conditions should remain VFR through today with sky cover consisting mainly of mid level clouds. Winds will be out of the southwest to west, with speeds 11 knots or less. For tonight, moisture and lift will be increasing along a frontal boundary developing near Lake Erie. Ceilings will lower a bit but will remain VFR, and winds will become southeast. We may see some snow showers in the vicinity of northern TAF sites, but most precip should stay north. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Coniglio

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