Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290155 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 955 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONT HAS ENDED AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WANES. THIS HAS LEFT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH PCPN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST SO THINK ANY THUNDER WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVE IN...BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER. THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE. TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DIMINISHING CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR A WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST OF TAF SITES. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR THIS EVENING...EXPECT CEILINGS TO FORM AND LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO MODELS. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO FALL TO IFR IN BR. VFR MAY THEN RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT AT CMH AND LCK WHERE MVFR MAY PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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