Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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715 FXUS61 KILN 230021 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 821 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge positioned over the nations mid section will continue to dominate the weather over the weekend before finally breaking down at the beginning of next week. This ridge will offer hot and humid weather conditions. The combination of heat and humidity will create heat index values above 100 degrees. Weak disturbances along with the heat and humidity will bring scattered showers and storms. A stronger cold front will push through Monday with more showers and storms. Slightly cooler and less humid air will settle in behind the front for next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A disorganized cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to drift southeast across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into the evening. Main concern is heavy rain and flooding with slow movement and high PW`s. Activity should diminish through the evening. Rest of fcst area should see minimal activity with subsidence and no significant trigger. Will keep low pop in for and isolated potential. Warm and muggy with high dewpoints. Lows near guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Not expecting a repeat of amount of convection for Saturday. With this in mind and expected high temps and dewpoints have continued with heat headlines Saturday. While not meeting 2 consecutive days of heat indices of 100 at Cincy and Dayton due to the clouds and convection today will not fall back to advisory and cause any confusion that it might not be as hot. Another hot and humid day for Sunday. Again some uncertainty of convection and numbers not meeting heat criteria headlines so will hold off any heat headlines for Sunday for now. Have tweaked pops down a bit for Saturday as models focusing more widespread convection to north and west of fcst area. Still think widely scattered mainly afternoon and evening activity should occur with the heat and humidity in place and any possible boundaries around. Have kept chance pops in for Sunday with models indicating a bit better prospect especially across the north and west. Temps near guidance for Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early Monday morning upper level ridging will nudge west as an upper level low over Ontario pushes east allowing for weak mid-level flow over the region. Monday afternoon a weak surface cold front will push into the area helping to act as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms. PWATs Monday are forecasted to be around 2.00" with ML CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Given these elevated moisture values and weak instability have raised PoPs. The cold front will then stall just south of the Ohio river Tuesday morning (ECMWF and GFS in good agreement). Behind the cold front PWATs fall to below 0.75" while ahead of the front PWATS remain above 1.50". GFS forecast soundings for KCVG show PWATs remaining elevated while quickly falling at KCMH. For now have just bumped PoPs up across the south Tuesday. Tuesday into Wednesday the front will remained stalled just south of the area and slowly start to wash out. Even behind the front though 850 temperatures are forecasted to be around 18 degrees C so am expecting temperatures near climo. Late Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave will approach the area from the west finally washing the leftover stationary front out. As this happens higher PWATs will again wash over the area with 2.00" + values moving in. Have trended PoPs up towards the end of the long term to account for this. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Boundary will wash out over the area tonight. Cannot rule out a stray shower this evening at KCVG and KLUK, however expect any shower activity to be short lived and light. Due to this have left out of the TAFs at this time. Have at least MVFR fog developing at all area TAF sites with the boundary washing out. Have IFR conditions developing at KCVG...KCMH...and KLCK. The columbus area has received decent rain today and KCVG will have higher dewpoints. Have LIFR conditions at developing at KILN and KLUK. KILN area received a decent amount of rain as well today and KLUK also will have the higher dewpoints. VFR conditions will returning during the daytime hours on Saturday. Expect less in the way of convective activity on Saturday and therefore left the TAFs dry. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday through Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060-062>065-070>074-078>082-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ061-077. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Padgett NEAR TERM...Padgett SHORT TERM...Padgett LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Novak

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