Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 150 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...BUT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY DAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OUR NWRN ZONES WHERE SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS TO RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY A H5 WILL SWING OUT OF THE THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BECOME THE QUICKEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...PUSHING PCPN INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...HOLDS PCPN BACK UNTIL SUNDAY...AS IT IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS RUN. DELAYED PCPN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM LIMITED TO THE NE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY NIGHT IT IS WEAKENING SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ON SUNDAY...LINGERING LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS 60 TO 65 SATURDAY MORNING AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE 27.12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONGST THE GEFS MEMBERS HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW NORMAL SO HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BROADEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN GEFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AND 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME 90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS AND CIRRUS WILL GIVE WAY TO CIRRUS THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT...SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND THICKENING CIRRUS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. ON SATURDAY...PSEUDO WARM FRONT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT 16Z DUE TO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...HICKMAN

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