Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 262116 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 416 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... MID LEVEL FLOW PHASES WITH MEAN TROF AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALL DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY BEFORE COMING TO AN END. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 TO -22 DEG C TO SETTLE INTO NW OHIO BY MORNING. VERY COLD LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE WITH RESULTANT WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACRS THE NORTH. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. COLD START FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHWEST. IF THE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THEN THIS WILL IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934). ON THE BACKSIDE OF RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. WAA MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ACRS ILN/S FA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE...EXPECT SATURDAY/S HIGHS TO STILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PCPN TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW SAT NIGHT. EXPECT EARLY LOWS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH WITH RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN WAA PATTERN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...CHANGING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON IN ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY... POSSIBLY STARTING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...TAPPING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...MAY COMBINE WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL FLOODING COULD INCLUDE PONDING IN URBAN AREAS AT FIRST...WITH RIVER FLOODING TO FOLLOW ONCE RUNOFF REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMALS IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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