Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 300225 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ISOLATED GROUPING OF SHOWERS RUNNING NNE FROM KDAY WILL CROSS INTO HARDIN COUNTY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH...NOTED BY A DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WHICH IT DID PRODUCE CLOSER TOWARDS THE DAYTON METRO AREA. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP TONIGHT BY ABOUT 2 DEG OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE AND ALLOW ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL ONLY BE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THAT AREA. STRONGER FORCING AREA WIDE WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT SO THERE COULD BE SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL TOTALS. AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. WHILE THIS MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LULL...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION AND SUBSTANTIAL LOWER CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING VERY MUCH. HAVE USED A MOS BLEND LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FORECAST AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMER MOS NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EACH MODEL RUN WAS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. ALSO..THE GFS SEEM TOO FAST IN PUSHING A WARM FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MID WEEK BASED ON MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ON MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES. WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DIURNAL HEATING WITH A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS MAY POP A SHOWER OR STORM...PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN CWFA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST UPR LVL DYNAMICS PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ENOUGH HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE CALL FOR AT LEAST 40 TO 50 POPS. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE A LITTLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY CNTRL AND SRN SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY IN THE MOIST RETURN FLOW ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM. HAVE GONE WITH 20 AND 30 POPS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS IN VC LUK WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY MAKE KILN OR MORESO KDAY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THESE ARE NOT DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS AND LACK THUNDER...SO THEY SHOULD FALL APART AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THESE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER TAF SITES UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN MORE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO OHVLY FROM THE WEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE AND THEN PROPAGATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TREKS TOWARDS THE OH/IN/KY CONFLUENCE SUNDAY MORNING...BEYOND TAF VALID TIME. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS/NOVAK

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