Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221819 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 219 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 12Z ILN SOUNDING IS SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOUGHT EARLIER. THE MOST RECENT HOURLY OBS ARE SUPPORTING THIS...AS THEY ARE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR THIS MORNING. SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ATTM SHOULD MIX DOWN A LITTLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TO THE UPPER 60S. THIS PRODUCES HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME 100 TO 101 IN THE SE. THIS REMAINS SUB ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MAY BEGIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THAT FASTER PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. WENT WITH A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION. HIGHS MAY BE HELD BACK IN THE 70S IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY REACH 90. FOR THURSDAY...COOLER READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL PLACE THE OHIO VALLEY IN A REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ON BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY ACT TO FOCUS SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THESE CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH GREATER AMPLITUDE OVER A LARGER EXPANSE OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IN THE MODELS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALSO EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. WITH CLOUDIER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOMEWHAT AFTER PEAKING NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE TAFS MIGHT GO BROKEN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT THE ERN TAFS BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET. MODELS ARE THEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING CDFNT DOWN INTO THE TAFS AFTER 06Z...DRAPING IT ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS TO PRODUCE PCPN POST FRONTAL WITH THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTION COULD GET GOING BETTER DURING THE AFTN HOURS SE OF I-71 WHERE THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WOULD BE HIGHER. SO...KEPT THE MENTION OF TSRA AS A VICINITY FOR THE NRN TAFS. AT CVG/LUK INCREASES THE PCPN CHANCES TO PREVAILING AROUND 17Z WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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