Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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440 FXUS61 KILN 272343 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 743 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley tonight. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Convection progressing into central Kentucky will continue east northeast through the rest of the afternoon into the evening. Mesoanalysis continues to shows a distinct gradient in instability. Near term models still indicate that instability will get further north into far southern counties, but for the most part the forecast area will remain along the northern gradient. There remains the potential for strong to severe storms to affect far southern counties late today into the early evening. Damaging straight line winds seems to be the main threat. After this initial round of convection, expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms fill in ahead of a surface low that will track across the area. While any storms will bring a period of heavy rainfall, guidance trends suggest that the possibility of localized flooding seems to be a bit lower than previously expected. Precipitation will diminish late tonight as the low continues off to the east. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Some wrap around showers may still affect parts of the forecast area Tuesday morning before ending entirely. Low clouds will prevail through the day and most likely all of Tuesday night. Did not see any reason to vary much from a MOS consensus on temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low level moisture will be present across the area at the start of the long term especially along and south of the Ohio River. Although decent cloud cover will be present through the day, dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. A warm front lifts northward on Thursday allowing for some shower and thunderstorm activity. A low pressure system approaches Thursday night. Models differ on how progressive this low is as it moves through the area. The ECMWF has come more into line with a slightly slower solution and therefore expect showers and thunderstorms across the region on Friday before beginning to taper off Friday night into Saturday morning. After this time expect dry conditions for a remainder of the weekend and into Monday. The next system will begin to move into the area for Monday night bringing additional precipitation. High temperatures through the long term will be in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s and 50s, however a few temperatures in the upper 30s will be possible north of Dayton to Columbus Wednesday night and Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mid level short wave will move across the Ohio Valley tonight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature will push across the TAF sites through this evening, with the best coverage at the southern terminals. An associated surface low will lift northeast along the I-71 corridor through the overnight hours and this will keep a lingering chance for showers through much of the night. As the low moves through, cigs and vsbys will drop into MVFR and then IFR. Vsbys will gradually improve through Tuesday morning but the cigs will be a little slower to improve, with IFR conditions persisting into the afternoon hours. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night and likely continue into Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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