Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 231804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 204 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and humid airmass will continue across the region today with additional thunderstorms expected. Thunderstorm chances will continue for Monday before cooler and drier conditions work into the region for Monday night. High pressure and dry conditions will then be in place through Wednesday before another system brings a return of precipitation to the area for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast dilemma for today will revolve around chances of pcpn (thunderstorms) and subsequent severe and flooding threat. Late this morning, a couple of MCVs are noted across southern Illinois and southern Indiana. The MCV over southern Indiana is responsible for the stratiform/embedded thunderstorm pcpn moving into our southwest CWFA. Also, some low level convergent flow is also causing some shower/thunderstorm activity across our northern CWFA. The southern shield of pcpn has been weakening with time as it moves into Kentucky/southeast Indiana. This will likely not result in flash flooding per se if it continues on its weakening trend across the remainder of the CWFA into early afternoon (as supported by the latest HRRR). However, given that some locations across our south have received between 4 and 7 inches of rain last night, felt it to be only logical/safe and extend the FFA across the southern tier until 8 pm (just in case some embedded storms hold across this region). For the remainder of the afternoon, thunderstorm chances should then focus on a weak boundary that should move southeast from our nw CWFA into our eastern/southern CWFA by evening. With high pwats, locally heavy rain threat will continue. At this time, severe threat appears to be isolated, and will ultimately depend on how much the region may recover with extensive cloud shield presently. Given the extensive cloud cover and pcpn moving in toward the early afternoon hours, have cut temperatures back to the lower/mid 80s. This only produces heat index values (when factoring the humidity) from the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Scattered showers/thunderstorm activity will be ongoing at the start of the short term this evening. Most of this activity will move out of the region during the evening to first part of the overnight hours leaving the region dry for late tonight. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected for Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the front moves through on Monday expect drier and cooler conditions across the forecast area for Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will increase for Wednesday, however dry conditions will continue. Another system is expected to approach the region Wednesday night and move through the region Thursday into Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this system. After this system moves through, cooler and drier conditions will again return to the region for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered showers and some MVFR ceilings were occurring over parts of the region early this afternoon. Focus now turns toward a trof axis across northwest Ohio into northern Indiana and whether additional showers/storms develop late this afternoon. That being said, have placed some VCTS/CB descriptors for the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK for late this afternoon/early evening due to the prospects of some scattered convection. Convection farther south now looks to be isolated due to this area being worked over from previous rainfall, and thus it is having a hard time recovering heating wise due to extensive cloud cover. For tonight, trof axis moves southeast as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. We should become at least partly cloudy in between aforementioned systems. As winds become light, along with lingering low level moisture, concern turns toward the potential for stratus and/or fog development. Confidence is higher for at least some MVFR/IFR/LIFR visbilities with lower confidence for stratus formation. Stratus may form southeast of the terminals where moisture will be more adequate in the boundary layer, and then again behind the approaching cold front. On Monday, weak cold front will gradually move southeast across the region. Any morning stratus/fog will lift to scattered to broken cumuliform clouds. It still looks like enough instability will develop in the afternoon for a chance of a shower/storm along and ahead of the cold front, but this should occur mainly south and east of the terminals. Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the Great Lakes and middle Ohio Monday night as the cold front moves away to the south. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Thursday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077>079- 081-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ073>075- 080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman/Novak LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hickman

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