Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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888 FXUS61 KILN 191713 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1213 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region today before sliding east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Morning clouds and some fog will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Much above normal temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach of a storm system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Overcast skies and some patchy fog remain this morning with weak surface high pressure overhead. Overall, forecast soundings and high res models show low level saturation slowly eroding today with breaks in the clouds expected by early afternoon and then partly cloudy skies later in the afternoon. GFS and NAM forecast soundings erode the clouds very slowly though so have pulled down high temperatures a bit for this afternoon. New zones out shortly. Prev Discussion -> Mid level deformation and associated rain showers have moved southeast of ILN/s FA. A weak e-w oriented front over northern Ohio to settle into central Ohio and stall out an lose its identity. The low level flow will veer westerly with lower levels saturating. Latest satl imagery shows low level clouds developing acrs portion of southern and central Indiana. These low clouds will develop across ILN/s FA early. Drier air from the north will provide increasing sunshine from the northwest to southeast during the late morning and afternoon hours. Clouds will likely keep temperatures a little below yesterdays readings. Warm temperatures to continue with highs generally in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Surface ridge axis will slide just east of the region by Monday morning. Expect dry conditions tonight with only high level clouds spilling over the mid level ridge. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to light wind flow. Lows to range from the upper 30s far northeast to the lower 40s southwest. With mid level ridge build and amplifying over the region Monday expect continued dry weather with a warming trend. High level clouds will continue to cover the area. High temperatures will approach record values Monday, ranging from the lower 60s far northeast to the upper 60s southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley. Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous low. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely. During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and visibilities by the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Haines CLIMATE...

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