Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 161331 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT IT APPEARS THAT PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A NORTHERLY DRYING WIND OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WHERE A FEW DEGREES OF MODERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BUMP HIGHS THURSDAY FROM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST AS COOL OF A DAY IN STORE WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM WEDNESDAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE COMFORTABLY COOL UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONE EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT WHERE THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CEILINGS ARE CHAOTIC ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT. CIGS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR MAKING THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. EXPECT AS THE SUN COMES UP TODAY THAT ANY VFR CIGS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR. THEN EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. DURING THE AFTN...THE CLOUDS WILL START TO MIX AND LIFT TO VFR. AFTER 00Z...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. COOL CANADIAN HIGH WILL WORK IN AND EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE TAFS. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FALL TO MVFR...BUT KLUK AND KILN ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO IFR. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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