Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 191713
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1213 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure will build into the region today before sliding
east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Morning clouds and some fog
will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Much above normal
temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the
week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday,
but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the
upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before
rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach
of a storm system.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Overcast skies and some patchy fog remain this morning with weak
surface high pressure overhead. Overall, forecast soundings and
high res models show low level saturation slowly eroding today
with breaks in the clouds expected by early afternoon and then
partly cloudy skies later in the afternoon. GFS and NAM forecast
soundings erode the clouds very slowly though so have pulled
down high temperatures a bit for this afternoon. New zones out
Prev Discussion ->
Mid level deformation and associated rain showers have moved
southeast of ILN/s FA. A weak e-w oriented front over northern
Ohio to settle into central Ohio and stall out an lose its
identity. The low level flow will veer westerly with
lower levels saturating. Latest satl imagery shows low level
clouds developing acrs portion of southern and central Indiana.
These low clouds will develop across ILN/s FA early.
Drier air from the north will provide increasing sunshine from
the northwest to southeast during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Clouds will likely keep temperatures a little
below yesterdays readings. Warm temperatures to continue with
highs generally in the lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Sharp full latitude mid level ridge to build into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday. Surface ridge axis will slide just
east of the region by Monday morning. Expect dry conditions
tonight with only high level clouds spilling over the mid level
ridge. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to light
wind flow. Lows to range from the upper 30s far northeast to the
lower 40s southwest.
With mid level ridge build and amplifying over the region Monday
expect continued dry weather with a warming trend. High level
clouds will continue to cover the area. High temperatures will
approach record values Monday, ranging from the lower 60s far
northeast to the upper 60s southwest.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Area will be under a warm and dry southerly flow Monday night to
early Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring a good chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night. High pressure and dry weather
will follow for Wednesday. A vigorous low pressure system moving to
the western Great Lakes will impact the area starting on Thursday
and continuing through Friday. First, a warm front developing ahead
of the low will be the focus for showers on Thursday. For Friday,
showers and thunderstorms will be likely with passage of a cold
front extending south from the low center. Saturday should be dry
with high pressure moving to the lower Ohio Valley.
Warm advection and sunshine, and the presence of an upper ridge
across the eastern CONUS, will allow much above normal temperatures
to persist for most of the period. Highs are forecast to be in the
60s Tuesday through Friday. A reduction to near normal 40s appears
to be in store for Saturday in a northwest flow behind the vigorous
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through
the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF
sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The
clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The
clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this
afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into
Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak
winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to
approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely.
During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The
sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and
visibilities by the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)