Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281148 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 648 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAIN EAST OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING BUT WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION IS QUICKLY SHUNTING THE RAIN EWD AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THE EAST FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE CLOUDS TO LINGER...SO UPPED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO MID 40S IN THE EXTREME SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER COLD ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STREAKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL PROVIDE LIFT CAUSING CLOUDS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL. AFTER LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FURTHER COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BRING HIGHS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO EJECT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...WITH RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z MODELS...AS WELL AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SHOWN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND PARALLEL GFS H5 PATTERN ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...SO SOME PREFERENCE IS SHOWN TO THE SLOWER ECMWF PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD TEND TOWARD MOSTLY RAIN BY SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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ASIDE FROM A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE THE PRECIP HAS ENDED OVER TAF SITES FOR THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND COULD SEE INITIAL DROPS TO IFR WITH CIGS BLO 1KFT EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE COMING DAY. INITIALLY HAD A NOSE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/DRIER AIR RIDGING INTO WESTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CLOUD COVER BEING SHOWN ON THE 4KM NAM VERSUS THE NAM AND I ADJUSTED THE TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK THROUGH THE FORECAST GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BEING NOTED. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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