Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 280201 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1001 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK IN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT THERE ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH WHICH WILL AFFECT DISTRIBUTION OF POPS. THIS FORCING WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EXPECT WEAKENED CONVECTION TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BY 6 AM AS PER LATEST HRRR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ZONE. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A WEAK LOW WITH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE (SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS). BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH HIGHEST CAPE VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS HAS VALUES JUST SHY OF 1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LEFT OVER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A SHORT BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THINK OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BUT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS. ON FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY SEVERE OR HYDRO ISSUES FOR THIS EVENT FOR NOW. SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER S/W SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR NOW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS INDICATED. TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE WITH SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONT LYING ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL ADVERSELY INFLUENCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST AT NORTHERN SITES ILN DAY CMH AND LCK. WHILE MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE STILL OCCURRING AT CVG AND LUK...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN THERE SOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH. THOUGH ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SHOWERS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION HELPS TO FURTHER MOISTEN LOW LEVELS. A RETURN TO MVFR IS FORECAST AROUND 14Z WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. MODELS INDICATE THAT VFR MAY BE ATTAINED AROUND 18Z AT CVG AND LUK...WHILE ILN DAY CMH AND LCK MAY SEE MVFR PERSIST TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH FRONT POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT THIS POINT. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE NEED. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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