Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250230 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1030 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough over the Great Lakes this weekend into early next week will lead to cool temperatures with scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Wilmington`s area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Embedded s/wv over Wisconsin this evening will move east to lower Michigan overnight. Main sensible weather associated with this feature will remain north of the forecast area...with only some FEW-SCT cirrus clouds expected. With mostly clear skies overnight, and with a dry airmass in place, temperatures will drop to cool lows in the lower and middle 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid level shortwave trof to drop into the mean trof position Sunday. A surface reflection in the form of a weak front will pass through the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon. Moisture is limited with this system and with weak forcing have elected to keep the forecast dry, although an isold shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question across the north during the afternoon. Cool temperatures to continue with Sundays highs from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. Expect clouds to diminish after sunset Sunday, with some clouds lingering across the north. Expect cool lows Sunday night in the lower and middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Monday morning, large-scale troughing will exist over the eastern half of the CONUS, with a relatively dry air mass in place over the Ohio Valley. A weakening shortwave will be moving southeast into the southern Great Lakes, which is expected to lead to greater low-level moisture and chances for precipitation in that region. However, its impacts over the Ohio Valley will be very limited, with little confidence in more than an increase in cloud cover -- primarily in the northern half of the ILN CWA. Would not be impossible to have a few light showers develop north of I-70, but the dry air mass precludes adding this to the forecast for now. Will only maintain a 20-PoP in the NE CWA later Monday night into Tuesday morning, as a secondary shortwave moves through the upper Ohio Valley. Despite an expectation for a reasonable amount of sunlight, the continued 850mb cold advection will lead to this being the coolest day of the extended forecast period. Dry high pressure will move into the region Tuesday, influencing conditions through the middle part of the week. With a turning of winds to the south on Wednesday, a more appreciable warmup will begin, with temperatures returning to the 80s. As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower confidence -- especially in precipitation timing through the rest of the week. There is agreement that a frontal zone will set up east-to- west across the southern Great Lakes, with the ILN CWA in the warm sector within solid deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection develops at the north end of this warm sector, and along the frontal area, there will eventually be some propagation downstream which may impact the ILN CWA -- perhaps on Thursday afternoon, and then again as additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How much of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact position of the front. Because of this, PoPs will be kept on the lower side of things for now, with a model blend suggesting higher precipitation chances north of the ILN CWA. Differences in the evolution of an upstream trough going into the weekend will preclude more than very low confidence in the forecast late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad mid level trough will remain across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the TAF period. Embedded disturbances will rotate east through this trough across the Great Lakes with main sensible weather expecting to remain north of the terminals. A weak cold front will push southeast into the region late in the period. Otherwise, only some cirrus is expected overnight, so VFR conditions will prevail. On Sunday, diurnal heating will result in FEW-SCT cumulus clouds ahead of the weak cold front. An increase in the surface pressure gradient and fairly decent mixing will increase winds from the west in the sustained 10 to 15 knot range with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range beginning around 16Z. Winds will diminish with the loss of diurnal heating around 00Z Monday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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