Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020816 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 416 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN. SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX CLOUD REGIME...WITH LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE HIGH CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SKY COVER TO BE MORE PREVALENT IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN UNDER A RATHER THICK VEIL OF CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS TENNESSEE TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY WHEN CAPES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND WPC FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK. FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME ISSUES ON HOW STRONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE CANADA/NEW ENGLAND AND HOW FAST IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IN EITHER CASE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE IN A LULL IN TERMS OF THE THREAT FOR PCPN WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY ACRS TN VLY. SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SCATTERED OUT LOW CLOUDS ACRS KDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH SHUD KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR CATEGORY ACRS REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH ALL TAFS BECOMING VFR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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