Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 250654
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
254 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
An upper level low over the Carolinas will continue to slowly
pull away from the region overnight. A few light showers or
sprinkles will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio and
eastern Kentucky. Weak high pressure will build into the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. A cold front will push into the region on
Thursday and then stall out across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. This will result in a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the second half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper level low over the southeast to drift slowly east to the
southeast coast overnight and then track up the eastern seaboard
Tuesday. Low level east-southeast flow and weak 8H convergence
axis was resulting in a few very light rain showers over eastern
Ohio. As these showers move into ILN/s eastern counties they are
weakening and falling apart. Will continue to mention a very low
pop for a shower in the far east tonight. Otherwise, mid and low
level moisture will result in considerable cloudiness overnight.
These clouds should mitigate the development of widespread fog
but some river valley fog is not out of the question toward
sunrise, especially across the sw portion of ILN/s FA. Clouds
will keep temperatures mild tonight with lows generally around
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A narrow surface ridge axis will push east across our area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will lead to some developing
low level southerly flow and weak WAA through the day on
Tuesday. This will result in decreasing clouds with highs on
Tuesday into the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models point to an unsettled weather pattern featuring a
persistent frontal boundary, enhanced by several waves of low
pressure, fed by a rich supply of moisture.
Area will be in a dry southerly flow between two low pressure
systems on Wednesday, with no precip expected. That will change
starting on Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through
from the west, bringing the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will wash out briefly under high
pressure Thursday night, before redeveloping as a warm front and
lifting across the region Friday to Sunday. This scenario suggests a
prolonged period for showers and thunderstorms to develop, lasting
through the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push through
Monday, accompanied by more rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period. Highs in
the 80s Wednesday will be boosted by warm advection. Readings are
forecast to slide back into the 70s Thursday and Friday due to
precip and modest cold advection associated with the weakening cold
front. Mainly 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday with the area in
the warm sector. A retreat toward the near normal upper 60s will be
possible Monday behind the stronger cold front.
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper level low rotating near the coast of South Carolina this
morning will pivot northeast to a position off the mid Atlantic
region by this evening. Atlantic moisture funneling west between
this low and high pressure to the north across southeast Canada
will bring some clouds to the region. A low level jet pointing
westward may even bring a few showers close to the KCMH/KLCK
terminals toward sunrise. Clouds should thicken overnight...then
scattered by Tuesday afternoon as the low level jet weakens
while ridging develops at the surface and aloft. It now looks
like ceilings should remain VFR, but a few pockets of MVFR could
still occur until about 15Z.
For tonight, upper level low will continue to pivot toward the
southern New England coast. Any lower level clouds across the
region should dissipate after sunset, leaving just some high
level cloudiness as high pressure at the surface and aloft
reside over the forecast area.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday through Saturday.
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