Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151859 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 259 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will taper off through late afternoon as a cold front pushes east across the region. The cold front will usher in a drier and cooler airmass for the first part of the week. Dry conditions will then persist through the end of the week as temperatures slowly moderate. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... The cold front is currently stretching from north central Ohio down into far southwest Ohio/northern Kentucky. The shower activity along and just behind the front has been gradually decreasing in coverage this afternoon. Meanwhile, we are beginning to see an uptick in convective activity with the narrow line out ahead of the front currently moving through central Ohio. This may continue to fill in a bit through late afternoon before the front moves through so will linger a slight chance of thunder across our east for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, shower activity along and behind the front should taper off from the west through late afternoon, possibly lingering into early evening across our far southeast. The cloud forecast for tonight is tricky as there is a fair amount of wrap around cloud cover back to our northwest. Some of this will likely rotate down into our area through this evening but it is looking at least somewhat cellular so there may be some dissipation after sunset. However, there is also a secondary mid level short wave forecast to pivot across the southern Great Lakes overnight. The combination of this and a fetch of moisture off of Lake Michigan may also allow for some lingering clouds tonight. In continued low level CAA behind the front, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 40s by late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Monday into Monday night with its axis situated west to east along the Ohio River by Monday night. This will lead to dry and cool conditions with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s. With the clear skies and light winds Monday night, will undercut temperatures a bit with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30s. This will likely lead to some frost development, especially across southern portions of our area, closer to the ridge axis. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface and upper flow is backed around from neutral to a return to SW flow for much of the forecast period, with seasonable high temperatures giving way to a return to above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the latter part of the week. Overall uneventful extended with GFS/ECMWF and GFSE in better than average agreement with a ridge building in from the southern plains and relaxing the gradient, allowing very light SW flow and sunny skies. Low temperatures Tuesday night will begin to moderate, so that lows will generally be at or above 40 in all but the far eastern forecast area where upper 30s will linger. A return to low 70s Thursday and then mid 70s by Fri/Sat with overnight lows in the 40s to near 50/low 50s by the weekend. Previous runs indicating a dry shortwave pushing through the region Thurs/Thu night now have this energy well north of the area over Ontario/Quebec, so no precipitation expected for the period. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front is pushing into our area from the west, currently stretching from northwest Ohio into southeast Indiana. The bulk of the shower activity is mainly along and just behind the front with more spotty shower activity out ahead of it. With this in mind, will linger a mention of shower activity a bit longer in the TAFs. Southwest winds gusting into the 25 to 35 knot range will become west to northwest with the passage of the frontal passage over the next couple of hours. Out ahead of the front, cigs have bumped up into VFR in places but think they will come back down into MVFR once the front goes through. Models are suggesting at least some partial clearing overnight but based on upstream satellite imagery, will go ahead and linger some clouds on into Monday morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...JGL

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