Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 281747 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND AN END OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS STILL MEAGER. BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME THUNDER...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING INTO THE MID 70S. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...INFLUENCING THE WEATHER ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING...ESPECIALLY WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES). WITH CALMING WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FROST IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT CLOUDS COULD BE BUILDING IN BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DECREASED A COUPLE DEGREES HERE AS WELL. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL AGAIN BE A CHANGE IN THE COOLER DIRECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND PIVOT THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...WE SHOULD STILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA. STRONG CA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE COBB METHOD ARE BOTH SUGGESTING THAT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...IF THE SHOWERS BECOME A BIT CONVECTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPOSE A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IN CONTINUED CAA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AT THIS POINT BUT WILL NUDGE DOWN HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER NOW SHIFTING THE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAY BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THOUGH AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE GET INTO RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH CLEARING THEN WORKING IN AFTER 00Z. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME GUSTS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOT SO MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. IN ADDITION STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.