Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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504 FXUS61 KILN 161506 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1006 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalled to our south will push north as a warm front today, allowing for milder temperatures and a chance for showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through the region on Tuesday, offering more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. In the wake of this front, there will be a return to more seasonable temperatures for midweek with warmer air to return by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Not many changes to forecast this morning as weak isentropic upglide across the area has allowed a weak band of returns to push north with light rain or drizzle being reported. This is not surprising as the 12z KILN sounding shows a nice dry layer at 600 mb. During the day today a warm front will push north across the area allowing temperatures to rise to around 50 across the south and mid 40s across the north. To put this in perspective normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 30s. The next upper level disturbance will then approach the area this evening. PREV DISCUSSION-> Weak isentropic lift pivoting north through ILN/s FA early this morning. Best coverage across the north, so have a mention of chance pops early and with temperatures at or below freezing have a mention of very light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast across the Central Plains today. Ahead if this system, mid level ridge to build over the Ohio valley today which should active to limit pcpn coverage. Highs today to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight and across the Great Lakes Tuesday. Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing night with nose of 50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play. Have categorical pops developing overnight. Elevated instability develops into the west late, so also have a mention of thunder. Expect non-diurnal temperatures tonight, with lows from the lower 40s north to the lower/mid 50s south. Surface cold front to push through Tuesday afternoon with a continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, especially over the southeast. On the warm side of the system, expect highs on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid 50s northwest to the mid 60s southeast. In split flow pattern a second mid/upper level s/w to pivot thru the Great Lakes Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will keep the threat of a shower across mainly the northern counties into early Wednesday. Cooler temperatures Tuesday night with lows from the mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. Highs on Wednesday to be cooler but still running 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect readings to range from the lower 40s nw to near 50 se. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Trough will be moving out at the beginning of the period. High pressure will then build in and quickly head off to the east. Southerly flow on the back side of the high combined with rising upper heights will result in much above normal temperatures. Tail end of a short wave lifting north through the Mississippi Valley will bring some showers to the area on Friday. Approaching low pressure will result in more showers on Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area is in a moist easterly flow between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. Low levels are particularly moist, with flight conditions as poor as VLIFR the result. Those conditions will change gradually in the slowly evolving weather regime. Expect some improvement to MVFR by this afternoon, when visibilities may reach VFR while ceilings remain MVFR. IFR or worse is likely again after 00z Tuesday as moisture advection increases in advance of the low. Rain showers in the vicinity may become more widespread at CVG by 12z Tuesday. Winds will become southeast while speeds stay under 10 knots, until CVG sees south winds at 12 knots toward the end of their 30 hour TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.