Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270608 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 208 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the southeast United States will result in continued southwesterly flow across the upper Ohio Valley through the holiday weekend. This will lead to seasonably warm temperatures and the chance for a few showers or thunderstorms at times into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The ILN CWA has been precipitation-free for a few hours, and in the wake of the convective complex that clipped the region a few hours ago, conditions have appeared relatively stable. The 00Z KILN sounding indicated a fairly strong warm layer at around 900mb, without even any signs of elevated instability above it. There have been some models suggesting that precipitation will develop over the lower Ohio Valley and move into the region overnight, ahead of some sort of weak convergent boundary that may move northeast into the region. However, current radar suggests that the nearest convective development in the middle Mississippi Valley has been trending more toward backbuilding, and the boundary is not really showing any signs as of yet of a northward motion. Thus, especially given the stable conditions, a dry forecast will be maintained through most of the overnight period (with just a slight chance of showers in the southwestern CWA near morning). PoPs were adjusted for this scenario, but the changes were generally only minor. Temperatures, sky, and winds all looked to be on track from the previous forecast. Previous Discussion > Thunderstorms in southeastern CWA have devolved into some showers and are showing a continued weakening trend as they exit to the southeast this evening. Have removed thunder overnight and also took out that slight chance in the western third of CWA that was in earlier forecast for the predawn hours. Models are not suggesting rainfall overnight but the threat could re-insert itself at just about any time. Will need to monitor low level flow for anything that may sprout upstream and closely look at cloud cover overnight for potential clearing and lower overnight temps. Overnight lows will bottom out in the mid 60s for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The pattern remains as previously stated and there were not any significant areas to touch on to make any noteworthy changes. Southerly flow will continue and mid-atmospheric impulses will combine with the heating of the day to have an increased threat for storms in the afternoon. Cannot rule out that these disturbances continue a storm into the evening or overnight hours. Models are not able to determine the state of the atmosphere in a mesoscale fashion at this time tomorrow (at least with enough run to run/model to model consistency to me). This leads to a necessary fuzziness to the forecast with generic slight chance to chance of storms through the period, maximized with the peak daytime heating and diminishing overnight. Temperatures will also be similar through the weekend with highs topping out in the mid 80s and overnight lows bottoming out in the mid 60s. A few spots may top out in the upper 80s tomorrow given enough sunny breaks. A little more cloud cover on Saturday should inhibit runaway temperatures on this day. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The extended period begins with a H5 S/W lifting out of the upper MS valley into the wrn Great Lakes. At the sfc, the region remains under the same moist, unstable summer like atmosphere, so expect diurnal convection to pop up again on Sunday. Late Sunday night into Monday as weak front or sfc boundary works into the region, which will slowly suppress the chance of convection south of the region. By Monday evening...sfc ridging has built down thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...bringing stable air at the sfc and aloft. This should bring dry conditions to the region for Tuesday. By Wednesday, the remains of the weak tropical system that moved thru the se U.S. may bring added moisture to the region along with the return of scattered thunderstorms. For Thursday, the models are currently in agreement in pushing a front through the region. This should bring a more organized chance of thunderstorms. Highs Sunday and Monday will remain in the lower to mid 80s. Tuesday will only be a tad cooler before Wednesday sees highs back to the lower to mid 80s. Lows should remain in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Generally just expect some mid and high clouds across the TAF sites during the overnight hours. Although some cloud cover will be present cannot rule out some brief MVFR VSBYS at the TAF sites. At KLUK expect VSBYS to be variable between VFR and VLIFR at times. Hi res models keep slowing onset on weak shower activity across the TAF sites. Added a couple to a few hour period of VCSH to the TAFs for this morning after sunrise from southwest to northeast. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...Novak

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