Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290533 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 133 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THIS AREA WHICH THE HRRR ALSO PICKED UP ON. SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING THE UPR LOW OVER THE ST JOHNS BAY AREA WITH TROUGH DOMINATING THE GT LAKES...HAVE CONTINUED DIURNAL CU AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S. SFC FLOW BACKS TO LIGHT WESTERLY BY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR NOT QUITE AS COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E. BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...JGL

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