Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261547 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1147 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An area of high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley today. However, an unsettled weather pattern is expected for the weekend, with several upper level disturbances helping to bring occasional chances of showers and storms to the area. Behind a cold front on Sunday night, drier conditions are expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry conditions are expected across the area for most of the day. A surface low approaches tonight along with upper support. There are still some model differences in the exact location of this low and subsequently precipitation coverage. Better instability is across central and southern portions of the region. Due to this expect thunderstorms to work into the better instability. With this in mind went closer to the HRRR/RAP solutions which have more coverage in precipitation north of the Ohio River and scattered activity south of the river. An isolated damaging wind gust or large hail cannot be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... After the shortwave has moved through the region, it is somewhat unclear on whether or not additional storms will be able to develop during the day on Saturday. There will definitely be increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid- level lapse rates, but capping and subsidence behind the shortwave may limit this potential, at least through the afternoon. Will keep lower-end PoPs in place, and mainly focused in the southern sections of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A frontal boundary will be laying near the Ohio River Saturday night, and then it is forecast to pivot northeast as a warm front on Sunday ahead of a surface wave of low pressure. Uncertainty still exists at this juncture on the potential timing and coverage of an MCS to eject out of the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. Have broad brushed PoPs, with likely showers and thunderstorms currently favoring locations along and south of the Ohio River where the axis of instability will be favored. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall will all be a concern during this window of convection. Later Sunday afternoon and night, surface wave of low pressure will move northeast to the southern Great Lakes, which will eventually allow a cold front to push eastward through our region. Again, will be concerned with severe weather potential ahead of the cold front along with locally heavy rainfall. Will mentioned hazardous weather threats in the HWO. A large upper level low will slowly track across Ontario for the first half of the week and then weaken and lift Thursday. This will result in generally cool conditions across the region through the rest of the period. A couple of embedded disturbances rotating around the upper low may bring some showers to northern zones Monday afternoon, and again on Tuesday. Models then diverge at the end of the week as to how fast a cold front will push through the region. As such, have kept a low threat for showers/storms on Thursday. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR clouds have now almost completely cleared out from the TAF sites, and some stratus / mist over northwestern Ohio is unlikely to make it to any of the airports. Thus, aside from perhaps a brief MVFR ceiling or visibility in the first hour of the valid TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the day today, with WSW winds generally at or below 10 knots. Clouds will begin to lower and thicken tonight. It is appearing likely that thunderstorms will move into the area some time after 00Z, though it is not yet clear exactly where they will move. This means that thunder (and lowered conditions) will not yet be included in the TAFS, but at some point it will likely need to be, once it becomes clear which sites will be impacted. Where storms do occur, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to occur. After the storms move out, some showers may persist through the overnight and going into the day on Saturday. Ceilings are likely to drop to MVFR, and IFR ceilings are a possibility. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Saturday, along with a chance of thunderstorms. Intermittent chances of thunderstorms will remain possible from Saturday through Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...Hatzos

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