Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 040821 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 421 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH OHIO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BROAD UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW...ENOUGH FORCING MAY BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN EXPECTED TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE 60S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S / LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL). && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... H5 TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THRU THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND CDFNT WILL DROP DOWN WITH THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A BAND OF MVFR SHRA TO REACH THE WRN TAFS AROUND 15Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SO CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF VCTS FROM 18-21Z. CDFNT SHOULD CLEAR THE WRN TAFS AROUND 21Z AND THE ERN TAFS A FEW HOURS LATER. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS, DEEPENING H5 LOW WILL WORK SOUTH INTO KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH...BUT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHRA WILL REMAIN. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...SITES

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