Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230821 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 421 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ONLY NOTED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BEFORE PASSING EASTWARD.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FROST ADVISORY SIGNIFICANTLY AS CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING TONIGHTS DROP-OFF IN TEMPERATURES. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTON...AND OVER PORTIONS OF INDIANA WILL STILL STAND A REASONABLE CHANCE OF DROPPING TO THE LOW AND MID 30S THIS MORNING AND HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE ADVISORY. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A FEW DEGREES BUT GENERALLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING TONIGHT WILL ONLY AFFECT THE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CWA. EASTERN CWA WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY COVER AND THE HOCKING HILLS EAST OF COLUMBUS MAY DROP DOWN TO SUPPORT FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY WILL LIKELY NOT DROP AS MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT FROST HERE. THE REST OF FRIDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE FORCED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL NORTHWEST AND DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY REAL UPWARD MOTION FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHAT SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR SATURDAY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EVEN WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FA. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THE SC THAT HAS STUBBORNLY HUNG OVER THE TAFS. A HOLE HAS ACTUALLY DEVELOPED IN ERN OHIO AND IS WORKING WESTWARD. THIS CLEARING WILL HELP BREAK UP THE SC. SC SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED AFT 09Z...BUT SOME 2500-3500 FT ISOLATED CIGS COULD LAST TO 15Z. SCATTERED CI WILL AFFECT THE TAFS AFT THE SC DISSIPATES. THE CI WILL BECOME BROKEN OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035- 042>044-060. KY...NONE. IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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