Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271759 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE. HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE EAST. AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER OHIO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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