Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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793 FXUS61 KILN 201356 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 956 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BE PUSHED ASIDE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL THEN DIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AHEAD OF THIS...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE A FINGER OF A LITTLE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TOWARD 21Z SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A 20 POP TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AXIS OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM LOW WILL BE A SHARP FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP WILL BE PASSING AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG RAINFALL RATES LET ALONE THUNDER. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS BUT REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION THAT LIMITS HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND COULD CREATE SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER...EVEN LIGHTER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER AS WELL...HELPING ME TO KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND. DIPPED INTO SUNDAY TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST AS A BUILDING H5 RIDGE WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA PUSHING THROUGH DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. AFTER DAYTIME GETS A CHANCE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE THERE MAY BE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SO I ONLY MADE CHANGES IN THE DAYTIME PTYPE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THE EVENTUAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY OUT. WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHING OVER CANADA REMAINING FURTHER NORTH (AS THE GFS INDICATES)...THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WOULD BE MUCH GREATER...FORCING MOST OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA (AND LIKELY INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL). A MORE SUBDUED RIDGE (AS SEEN ON THE ECMWF) WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION (ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN AT FIRST) TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE REGION. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE THUS STILL IN QUESTION...BY MONDAY IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES COMBINING WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SETUP IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CLOUDS FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF KLCK/KCMH...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING INCREASINGLY SHEARED SHORTWAVE PUSH TOWARD AREA. A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRYNESS TO OVERCOME AS THE WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH IN THE 00Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. STILL KEPT VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING SHOWERS WITH EXPECTED SPOTTY/LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. AT ONSET OF RAINFALL AROUND 00Z...SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A MID DECK AND THEN LOWER LEVEL SATURATION WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ESPECIALLY THE KCVG/KLUK AREA...WHICH COULD LINGER AFTER PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM THE AREA IN THE 15Z TIMEFRAME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JDR

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