Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220220 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 920 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and wet weather has moved into the region as a cold front has stalled southeast of the area. Low pressure tracking just south of the region tonight into Thursday will result in more widespread precipitation. Unsettled conditions will remain into the weekend as additional weather systems pass through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A surface cold front has pushed through the area today and is now draped from Virginia to Tennessee. Late this evening widespread precipitation is pushing northeast across the FA, especially in western locations from Cincinnati to Dayton to Bellefontaine. Further enhancement to the rain is expected for the overnight hours thanks to an upper level disturbance that is forecast to move northeast over the Ohio Valley. The upper level jet streak will also finally start to nudge east with divergence from the RRQ heading east. PWATs also surge at this time to around 1.2" to 1.3" (or near max values for this time of year). As the shortwave moves overhead a weak surface low is forecast to form helping to pull down surface temperatures below freezing across our far northern zones. The HRRR, ARW, NMM, HREF, and RAP all have surface temperatures right around freezing. The GFS and NAM also has a window of below freezing temperatures (mainly between 1 AM and 7 AM). The latest ECMWF has the freezing line slightly farther north. Any precipitation that does fall with surface temperatures below freezing will fall as freezing rain given the warm air aloft. The METRo road model has road temperatures remaining above freezing so thinking is that impacts to area roadways will not be limited. Still though, models are indicating up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible across the far north. Given the above have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain Thursday morning. The other concern with this round of precipitation will be the potential for flooding. Latest runs of the GEFS, and EPS paints in general a one to two inch corridor across our southwest. Given the strong divergence from the RRQ, extreme PWAT values, and warm cloud depth layers above 9 kft this seems reasonable. Have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch across the south for this and have kept the watch going until Sunday morning with multiple rounds of precipitation possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday morning precipitation will be ongoing across central and southern Ohio with frozen precipitation possible across north/central Ohio. Thursday afternoon the upper level jet streak and disturbance will pull east with weak subsidence in the wake. Thursday afternoon into evening will likely be dry with a brief break in the precipitation due to the mentioned above. Early Friday morning the trough axis across the west coast will remain with the subtropical ridge off the east coast. This setup will allow another round of PV to break off and head towards the Ohio Valley. This means more showers will overspread the area Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active wet weather pattern to continue into Sunday. Anomalously strong sub tropical ridge over the southeast with a moist southwesterly flow focused into the Ohio Valley to begin the long term forecast period. Multiple waves of rain will lead to a continued flood threat. Moisture will pool ahead of a front moving into the area on Friday with precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches which is a record value for this time of year. Front to drop southeast across the area Friday and stall out parallel to the mid level flow near the Ohio River Friday night. On the warm side of the system temperatures look to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs on Friday from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. A brief lull in the pcpn activity expected late Friday night. Mid level shortwave and deepening surface low to eject northeast from the central plains Saturday into the Great Lakes Saturday night. Will continue to ramp pops back up to categorical Saturday. Strong low level jet will provide abundant moisture and marginal instability to the area. High shear low cape severe weather setup showing a signal with Sherb parameter Saturday night. Warm temperatures to continue with highs on Saturday from the mid 50s northwest to near 70 southeast. With the front expected to sweep east through the area early Sunday a drying trend to develop. Surface high pressure will build across the Great Lakes offering dry weather from Sunday into the middle of next week. Expect early highs on Sunday with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. Temperatures to turn cooler but still above normal with highs Monday and Tuesday generally in the 50s. Moisture to return from the south on the backside of retreating high pressure Wednesday. Will hold off any mention of rain until later in the afternoon. Warm temperatures to continue with highs from 50 north to the upper 50s south Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR conditions with rain will persist as a slow moving cold front and copious moisture move east of TAF sites. An extended period of moderate rain is expected tonight to Thursday morning as a wave of low pressure ripples along the front from the southwest, providing enhanced convergence and lift. Improvement to MVFR will be possible toward the end of the forecast as drier air works in for a brief period behind the wave of low pressure. Winds from the north will transition to northeast as the front moves farther east. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to continue into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-052. Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ063>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio

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