Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 192209
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
509 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning
before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much
above normal temperatures will continue through at least the
first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance
of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue
through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected
midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek
with the approach of a storm system.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure over the area has allowed winds to remain
relatively light with overcast skies. Skies have begun to clear
from north to south with the northern half of CWA clear. Where
skies have cleared temperatures are in the lower 60s with
temperatures around 50 degrees where skies have remained
Overnight, mostly clear skies will allow the ground to quickly
radiate. This will push dewpoint depressions close to zero by
midnight. As this happens fog and low ceilings will quickly come
right back. Low temperatures Monday morning will bottom out
around 40 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the
Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this
happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This
will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The
main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be
the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night
the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern
branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low
and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson
Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the
area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area.
PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be
near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised
PoPs Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Well above normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday through
Friday despite a cold front moving through during the day on
Low level moisture will be trapped across the area Wednesday
keeping clouds in the forecast for Wednesday. A frontal boundary
will meander around the area for Wednesday night into Thursday
before lifting northward as a warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with this feature.
Warm air will continue to surge into the area on Friday
allowing for temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will
move through Friday evening into Friday night. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will move through. Gusty winds will
especially be possible Friday night with and after the frontal
passage. Cooler conditions will be present for the remainder of
the long term.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through
the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF
sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The
clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The
clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this
afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into
Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak
winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to
approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely.
During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The
sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and
visibilities by the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday.
Record High Temperatures
Date CVG CMH DAY
Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939)
Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016)
Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930)