Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 051513 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1013 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END WITH ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY NRN STREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MID LEVEL S/W TROF TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY THIS AFTN. SFC WAVE OVER TN VALLEY WILL TRACK OFF TO THE EAST COAST THIS AFTN. AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIP EAST OF ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. RECEIVING MAX SNOW TOTALS UP TO 16 INCHES OVER FAR SE CWA. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES SE BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDDAY. HAVE INCREASED STORM TOTALS TO REFLECT THESE LARGE AMOUNTS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NW TIER OF COUNTIES FROM CINCINNATI THRU LEBANON/WILMINGTON TO LANCASTER WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. IN LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID TEENS NW TO NEAR 20 SE. PREVIOUS... STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SE HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING. CANCELED NW TIER OF COUNTIES OF HEADLINES AS ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS SNOW WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED PRIMARILY JUST SE OF INTERSTATE 71. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE. DID CANCEL RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING SINCE THEY HAD RECEIVED LESS SNOWFALL AT THIS POINT FROM THE EVENT AND THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL VALUES FROM THIS EVENT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW TOTAL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM LEWIS INTO SCIOTO COUNTIES. ON THE NW TIER OF THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...VALUES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS SE OF INTERSTATE 71 ESPECIALLY EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. AN INCH OF SNOW AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE BANDS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE FA. THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR CINCINNATI IS 24 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 20 SET IN 1890...AND DAYTON 22 SET IN 1960. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS AT THESE LOCATIONS ARE CINCINNATI 22...COLUMBUS 20...AND DAYTON 18.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NIGHT. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HOWEVER STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DUE TO SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI 2 SET IN 1960...COLUMBUS 2 SET IN 1901...AND DAYTON 0 SET IN 1901. CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE CINCINNATI NEGATIVE 2...COLUMBUS 0...AND DAYTON NEGATIVE 1. THESE FORECAST VALUES PUT THE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FA. HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS EARLY AND THEN INCREASING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. WARMER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ONE LAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE A MID DECK WILL PREVAIL IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ073- 074-078>082-088. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ075- 080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...

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