Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 200849 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 349 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Developing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend through the weekend, along with a chance of scattered rain. A better chance of rain showers will overspread the region through the day on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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The day will begin with scattered to broken cirrus over the region in zonal H5 flow. Then a sw low level flow will bring increasing moisture today. Models continue to struggle what to do with this moisture. They are split on whether to produce precipitation this afternoon. Forcing is minimal, but with weak waa, this should be enough to produce some light showers. Will continue with a mention of a slight chance of rain showers developing late this afternoon. Temperatures will continue their warming trend. Highs will range in the lower to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Coverage of the showers will increase during the evening hours, and should continue to be scattered throughout the night, as isentropic lift continues. On Sunday, a sfc low moves into the central plains. In response, a warm front develops in the lower Great Lakes. Showers should focus closer to this front, so continued with the trend of higher PoPs in the north Sunday into Sunday night. With the region in the warm sector, highs should range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower to mid 50s in nrn KY. By Monday, a deep closed low pushes out the Rockies and into the plains. Ahead of the upper low, a deepening surface low will eject northeast into the upper MS valley. Line of showers will work through the fa on Monday ahead of the front. The region should experience categorical PoPs. Highs Monday will range from west to east from 50 60 degrees.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mid/upper level low and deepening surface low to eject northeast from the plains into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow. The best chance will occur across the north counties, closer to the upper lows. Temperatures turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build across the region In the Wed/Thu time frame. This feature will provide dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Temperatures will moderate slightly Thursday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south. A southerly flow will develop on the backside of retreating high pressure for the end of the week. Moisture will increase with a chance of rain developing later Friday. Temperatures to warm up above normal with highs from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will be found for the first half of the forecast with wind shear to 40-45kt during the predawn hours. Cirrus spilling in from the northwest and thickening will be the rule until ssw surface winds advect in a 2000-2500` stratus deck in the very late morning in the southwest to the afternoon in the northeast. Models are showing light QPF over the region later today and this evening, but this appears to be primarily from the high moisture content in the lowest few thousand feet and general convergence/upglide. With a lack of a distinct forcing mechanism, have not included any sprinkles in the forecast, though any that occur will likely be VFR vsbys underneath the MVFR cloud deck. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs expected through Sunday night. MVFR cigs and vsbys in rain possible Monday, along with 25kt gusts. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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