Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192209 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 509 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through Monday morning before sliding east of the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Much above normal temperatures will continue through at least the first part of the week. A weak cold front will provide a chance of rain Tuesday, but the unseasonably warm stretch will continue through the upcoming workweek. Drier conditions are expected midweek before rain chances return for the end of the workweek with the approach of a storm system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... High pressure over the area has allowed winds to remain relatively light with overcast skies. Skies have begun to clear from north to south with the northern half of CWA clear. Where skies have cleared temperatures are in the lower 60s with temperatures around 50 degrees where skies have remained overcast. Overnight, mostly clear skies will allow the ground to quickly radiate. This will push dewpoint depressions close to zero by midnight. As this happens fog and low ceilings will quickly come right back. Low temperatures Monday morning will bottom out around 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... During the day Monday an upper level trough axis over the Western United States will amplify and slowly head east. As this happens mid level ridging over the CWA will also amplify. This will quickly push 850 mb temperatures towards 10 degrees C. The main hold back for high temperatures Monday afternoon will be the lower clouds/ fog that forms Monday morning. Monday night the upper level trough axis will break apart with the southern branch over Southeast Texas wrapping up into an upper level low and the northern branch pulling northeast towards the Hudson Bay. Tuesday morning the upper level energy will approach the area from the west with a splitting jet just north of the area. PWATs on both the GFS and NAM are around 1.20". This would be near the all time daily record. For these reasons have raised PoPs Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Well above normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday through Friday despite a cold front moving through during the day on Tuesday. Low level moisture will be trapped across the area Wednesday keeping clouds in the forecast for Wednesday. A frontal boundary will meander around the area for Wednesday night into Thursday before lifting northward as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this feature. Warm air will continue to surge into the area on Friday allowing for temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A cold front will move through Friday evening into Friday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move through. Gusty winds will especially be possible Friday night with and after the frontal passage. Cooler conditions will be present for the remainder of the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level ridging will continue to build into the region through the TAF period with low level moisture remaining. Currently TAF sites are IFR with clouds eroding from north to south. The clearing line is just north of KDAY and KCMH at this time. The clearing line will eventually make it to CVG/LUK late this afternoon but the break will be short lived. This evening into Monday morning surface high pressure will be overhead with weak winds. These weak winds will allow dewpoint depressions to approach zero making low ceilings and visibilities likely. During the day Monday the same pattern of today will repeat. The sun will slowly start to burn off the low clouds and visibilities by the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible through Friday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Haines CLIMATE...

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