Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151738 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 138 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...IN A REGIME OF WARM ADVECTION JUST OFF THE SURFACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS AT AROUND 750MB AS PER RAP/NAM DATA...BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO AN EXTENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING (AND A LIMITED AMOUNT OF THUNDER INTRODUCED)...THESE FORECAST CHANGES WERE GENERALLY CONSERVATIVE. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO ON ITS WAY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE ILN CWA...AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST CWA BY EVENING. THE RAP SEEMS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...AND DEPENDING HOW THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION BEHAVES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST CWA COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ADJUSTED...AND DEWPOINTS AND SKY GRIDS APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. A QUICK MOVG H5 S/W SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. BEST UPPER LEVEL PVA AND SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PCPN MIGHT COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS SE OF I-71 TODAY...BUT KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE NW COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO RAMPING UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KENTUCKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE S/W WILL RACE ACROSS NRN OH...NR LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...SO KEPT THE BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES AROUND 00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE FA AS A E-W ORIENTED FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS WITH THE SRN HALF OF THE FA ONLY SEEING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CAA IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KICK OFF SOME CU DEVELOPMENT. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING THE 60S. CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. A WARMING TRENDING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAKING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AT MID WEEK. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN TO BUILD SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF RE-TREATING SFC HIGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL US. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO AROUND 80 SOUTH. PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AN AREA OF RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION) HAS DEVELOPED OVER INDIANA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TIMED INTO THE TAF SITES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR IN THIS AREA OF RAIN...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE (OR EVEN IFR IN A THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY SHOWER). AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CEILINGS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY 00Z-03Z...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT ON TUESDAY MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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