Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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872 FXUS61 KILN 290113 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 913 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. A drier airmass will settle into the region heading into Monday before some lower chances of precipitation return through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Mid level s/w to pivot through the the srn Great Lakes tonight as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA was in the warm sector today with 00Z sounding showing marginal instby with CAPE only around 600 j/kg. The sounding also shows convective inhibition which kept ILN/s FA dry through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms developed along and ahead of weak sfc cold front approaching from the west. These storms are weakening as they push into western Ohio into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Expect these storms to track east across the FA through about midnight with the passage of the front. With lack of favorable instability the severe threat is very marginal and continues to diminish as the storms push east. Drier air will then work in overnight, leading to decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front. Expect lows from the upper 50s west to the lower 60s east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The drier airmass will continue to settle into the region through the morning hours on Monday. Some energy rotating around an upper level low centered over the northern Great Lakes will push down toward our area later Monday afternoon into Monday night. This will help push an associated weakening surface trough down into northern portions of our area. Forcing and instability appears to be fairly weak so will just hang on to some slight chance pops across the area for mainly Monday night. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers and thunderstorms may develop Tuesday in the vicinity of a weak cold front, affecting mainly eastern counties. A similar scenario is indicated for Wednesday near the stalled boundary, with thunderstorm chances enhanced by increased short wave energy rounding the base of a broad upper trough. High pressure and dry weather to start Thursday will decay rather quickly as another frontal boundary forms across the Great Lakes, allowing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to return by Thursday night. Thunderstorms will affect mainly northern locations to start, with convection chances spreading south and persisting Friday through Sunday as the front meanders over the region. Temperatures are likely to be near normal through the period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level s/w to pivot through the the region tonight as low develops over the western Great Lakes. ILN/s FA is in the warm sector with weak associated cold front approaching from the west. Cloud cover has held instability in check with blyr CAPE values up to 1000 j/kg. Forecast starting out with VFR cigs between 4000 and 5000 feet. Also, CIN has prevented the development of widespread thunderstorms due to lack of forcing in the warm sector. Broken line of storms has developed to our west invof the front, where there is a lack of CIN. Expect these storms to track east across the FA through the late evening with the passage of the front. A few of the storms could contain strong gusty winds with DCAPEs up to 1000 j/kg. Have a tempo group for a couple of hours to account for these storms. Pcpn will taper off through late evening as we lose the instability and a cold front moves through. A drier airmass will move into the area behind the front with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...AR

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