Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251556 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1056 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE STILL LINGERING WITH THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF TROUGH AXIS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO KEEP THESE IN THE AREA A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO LINGERING PRECIPITATION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE TROUGH DEPARTS...WITH CLOUDS NOT TO DIMINISH UNTIL NEAR/AFTER 6PM IN THE SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME IN FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY. LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND PARALLEL GFS FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION. THIS FORECAST WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A BIT FOR THIS SAME TIME IN THE EVENT TROUGHING DOES BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EAST. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CLEARING WILL OCCUR TOWARDS 00Z. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...

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