Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 070537 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1237 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SOME CIRRUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER AS WELL. BUT UNTIL THEN THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THUS EXPECT COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE BUMPED DOWN TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL START IN SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TRAPPED IN A STATIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BETWEEN THIS AND A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STATES. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL OVERSHADOW THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WHICH WILL EXIT EAST AND AWAY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. AN INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WARM AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GET WRUNG OUT ALONG A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE ADDED KICK OF A NEGATIVELY TILTING S/W ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE MEAN UPPER LOW TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD AIR DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER S/W HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND USHER IN THE COLDER AIRMASS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL PUT A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES IN THE OFFING FOR THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST NIGHTFALL MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN MORE THAN ANY OTHER PTYPE WITH NORTHWESTERN CWA GETTING A BETTER CHANCE OF PLAIN SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...EVEN IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING ADVERTISED AS 2-3 INCHES BUT THIS IS A 3 DAY TOTAL AND LIKELY WILL NOT ACCURATELY DEPICT THE MELTING THAT OCCURS DURING THE MIXED PRECIP ON SUN AND MON. BY LATER MONDAY EVENING THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANCE OF ANYTHING EXCEPT SNOW. MODELS ARE STINGY ON PUTTING A LOT OF QPF IN THE FORECAST AND THIS CUTS DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW FLYING THROUGH MID WEEK IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO SHOWERS OCCURRING IN THE REINFORCING COLD PUSHES THAT ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH A LARGE UPPER LOW. MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 40 IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY. COLD AIR MAY COME IN A BIT QUICKER OR THERE MAY BE A LARGER COOLING EFFECT FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A H5 LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG NW CAA FLOW AT H8 WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY...SO UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO PINWHEEL OUT TO THE EAST AND FILL. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKES HOWEVER...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER. STARTED TUESDAY NIGHT OFF WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY ALLOWED POPS TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS IT RUNS SOME H5 ENERGY SE ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING A STREAK OF SNOW THROUGH NRN KY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MORE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BRINGS CAA FLOW OFF THE LAKES AGAIN AND COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES. FOR SATURDAY MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH...WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AND ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 10- 15...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO THE MID 20S. FRIDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS GET UP TO EITHER SIDE OF 30 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OFF THE THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE TERMINALS FALL IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. 850 MB TO 700 MB OR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME TERMINALS COULD BE GUSTY. IT IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME THOUGH WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR AS MUCH WIND MIXING DOWN SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT GUSTS IN FOR THE NORMAL GUST PRONE TAF SITES. MONDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOME WEAK LIFT INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS. TIMING ON THE ARW/NMM AND NCEP WRF ALL INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING ACROSS THE WEST AROUND 3 Z MONDAY MORNING. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT IS THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH. WILL GO AHEAD AND WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 0Z MODELS RUNS TO COME IN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON PREVAILING PRECIP OR NOT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...HAINES

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