Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 212024 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 424 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... TODAYS CONVECTION WAS HANDLED PRETTY WELL BY YESTERDAYS HIRES-WRF NMM/ARW AND THE CMC REGIONAL MODELS. ONCE AGAIN THEY LOOK LIKE THEY ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION THE BEST...SO WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING LINGERING CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL OHIO BACK NW INTO NE INDIANA. THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MORE H5 ENERGY WILL TOP THE MID U.S. RIDGE TONIGHT...CAUSING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE MS VALLEY AND THEN DRIVE DOWN INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AFFECTED TONIGHT. WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPERED DOWN TO SLIGHT CHC POPS ON THE SW CORNER. CANT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS GETTING STRONG TO SEVERE LATER TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT IS LOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AGAIN RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE EAST OF COLUMBUS AND THE EXTREME NORTH MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS H5 S/W DROPS SE IN THE NW FLOW. INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD DROP SE DURING THE MORNING...THEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NW AND WORK DOWN INTO THE FA DURING THE AFTN. WENT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FA...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SW CORNER...WHERE KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHARPENING THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO PUSH S OF THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY SHOWED DIE DOWN DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE NEAR 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF 70....WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH OUR AREA STILL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...WE COULD SEE A LOW END CHANCE OF POPS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF FORCING...BUT WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT SO SUPPOSE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOMETHING TO DROP DOWN SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE MORE DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY...BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL WORK MORE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TOO. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND A CONTINUED LACK OF FORCING...THINK ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. SO HAVE ALLOWED FOR A FEW HOURS OF POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS. BEYOND THAT THERE SHOULD BE A QUIESCENT PERIOD WITH VFR LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED AND THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THE LOWEST. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SO HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERIC USING VCTS TO INDICATE PERIOD OF BEST CHANCE OF STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES/SNYDER NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...

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