Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261049 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 649 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH ACROSS THE ILN AREA...WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE. ABOVE THE SURFACE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING MOISTURE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. THE FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING EAST THROUGH TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON IN WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OHIO...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE THE MOST AFFECT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW SNOW TO MIX IN NORTH OF DAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ACCORDING TO MODELS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A SLIGHT DIURNAL INCREASE MAY OCCUR. THIS SCENARIO YIELDS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW 50S FAR SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING... POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BACK EDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND THE SCIOTO VALLEY. FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST AND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S WILL BE 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLIFIED FLOW /WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN CONUS TROUGH/ THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SLOWLY DEAMPLIFIES INTO SUBTLE/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OR NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POINT OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOMALOUS COLD SUNDAY MORNING AS 925/850 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PUSH BEYOND -2 SIGMA FROM CLIMATOLOGY. GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...EXPECT VERY COLD MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY /20S/ AREA-WIDE WITH SOME UPPER TEENS LIKELY IN THE COLD-PRONE AREAS IN CNTL/SCNTL OHIO. SUNDAY BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING SWLY WINDS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD USHER IN GOOD WARMING - BUT WILL LIKELY ADD A RAW CHILL TO THE AIR. THINK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 OR 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY...DELAYING BETTER CHANCES TO SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH 25.12Z GFS/ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SLOWING...AND IN ADDITION...AMBIENT AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL MOTION. SHORTWAVE/WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND DELAYS WARMING A LITTLE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS ON MONDAY /ECMWF MUCH WARMER THAN GFS/ AND HEDGING MORE TOWARD ECMWF AT THIS TIME IN SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW. HEIGHT RISES BEGIN MORE IN EARNEST ON TUES/WED. 25.12Z ECMWF RATHER BULLISH ON SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING WITH 25.12Z GFS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. RIGHT NOW GIVEN DISAGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT TUES FORECAST DRY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER. YET ANOTHER WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/ECMWF ENS SUGGESTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS WAVE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN...TEMPS BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER NRN KY TO LIFT THRU OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES IN REGION OF FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LLJ. BEST INSTBY IS SE OF THE TAF SITES BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAF FCST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY. THIS PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THRU LATE MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/BPP NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...AR

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