Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230152 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 952 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley on Monday and Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A mid-atmospheric disturbance will cross the region early on Wednesday and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will form over the northern Ohio Valley on Thursday and lift northward overnight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Some debris from weakening convection over eastern Ohio will brush by eastern counties through the rest of the evening. Beyond that skies will be clear overnight. Forecast lows look reasonable at this time.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The east coast upper level trough will shift slowly off to the east Monday into Tuesday as mid level ridging over the Central Plains works gradually east toward our area. As it does, surface high pressure will build slowly down from the northwest into our area Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend with highs in the mid 70s for Monday and then around 80 for Tuesday. nighttime lows will drop to the lower 50s monday night with generally clear skies. Tuesday night lows will have their temperature falls hampered by increasing clouds from the system coming in early Wednesday, as well as southerly surface flow pulling in warmer air. Readings should still be in the 50s...possibly around 60 in the northwest where these factors will be found for a longer period of time. Tuesday night will also see an increasing chance for showers, possibly a thunderstorm. This is more likely northwest of the I-71 corridor and specifically north of metropolitan Dayton. Attm, the chances of rain at midnight are minimal, but increase rapidly as daybreak approaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Relatively zonal H5 flow will affect the fa on Wednesday. Surface moisture will be on the increase along with the instability. Embedded vort maxs in the upper flow will provide lift for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Highs on Wednesday will be a few degrees either side of 80. H5 ridge along the east coast will build a little Thursday into Friday. This will allow the humidity to build for the end of the week, but spring like convection is expected each day into night. The fa finds itself warm sectored as a front is stalled across the upper Great Lakes. It is hard to put real timing in the extended with this type of pattern. Right now went with 40 PoPs on Thursday and Friday. The ridge continues to build over the weekend, brining summer like highs in the mid 80s. Scattered convection, however will remain a possibility Saturday and Sunday. Lows should be mild through the period, as they will generally be in the mid 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Main question is whether river fog will develop and affect KLUK overnight. Low levels are drier than last night and light northeast flow is generally not favorable for fog to form and affect that terminal. However have opted to continue with temporary visibility restrictions to IFR. Otherwise VFR will prevail across the area. Scattered to broken cumulus may develop during the latter part of the period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Sites AVIATION...

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