Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 311945 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 345 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move south of the Ohio River by Thursday morning. High pressure and a dry airmass will then build in through the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures accompanying the high will gradually warm to near normal by Sunday as the high shifts east.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms, most numerous across central Ohio, will continue east/southeast through the rest of the afternoon and and early evening. This main convection is associated with a prefrontal convergent trof axis, with the main cold front trailing behind to the north. For later this evening and overnight, the cold front will move south toward the Ohio River. The loss of diurnal instability and weak frontal convergence will cause the chance of showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish. Have taken a blend of MOS/raw 2 meter temperatures for lows. Lows will range from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s far south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front will move south away from the area on Thursday. Drier and cooler weather will filter into the region from the north. Skies will become mostly sunny all locations by early afternoon, but some diurnal CAA cumulus clouds may offer a little more cloud coverage in the northwest by mid/late afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 70s north to near 80 along and south of the Ohio River. Dry weather is expected for the period Thursday night through Friday night as sprawling surface high pressure sets up residence across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a little bit below normal for the period...with lows in the 50s and highs 75 to 80.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Until the track of the tropical system (now designated as Hermine) becomes better known, there will be a little bit of uncertainty regarding the forecast for the Ohio Valley over the weekend. As 12Z models have shifted slightly west, expected impacts have moved a little closer to Ohio and Kentucky. For now, however, there is no reason to alter the dry and warming forecast -- with high confidence in a pronounced mid-level ridge building in over the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. As this ridge continues to sharpen, with height rises over the ILN forecast area expected to continue well into next week, dry conditions and warming temperatures will be required in the forecast. This overall shift in pattern appears very likely, with strong agreement from individual members in the 12Z GEFS. However, details in the eventual strength of the ridge (especially at its center in the southeastern states) appear to be tied to the tropical concerns, with greater spreads in the exact placement of the features by Monday and beyond. The max temp forecasts have already been somewhat generous with temperatures, and this trend will be continued, with slight increases in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday. This will bring temperatures to values near 90 in the southern / southeastern sections of the forecast area, and lower 90s possibly on Wednesday. With increasing moisture (dewpoints moving into the upper 60s to near 70) the chance for precipitation will increase slightly by Tuesday and Wednesday. With little in the way of organized forcing expected, this will be kept in the 20-30 percent range and generally diurnal in nature.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection is now developing from KDAY-MKFD line, which appears to be in the vicinity of the front. Dropped the tempo group from KDAY taf and went with a VCTS based on the current radar loop. For the rest of the tafs, went with a 3 to 4 hours of tempo mvfr vsby in TSRA until the convection works thru the region. By 00Z expect the convection to be south of the tafs, with a mid deck remaining over the tafs. As drier air begins to filter into the region on north winds tonight, the AC should scatter out. However there are indications on the forecast time sections that some IFR stratus could form. Right now only put in scattered stratus, but will have to keep an eye on it and see if broken cigs develop. Dissipated any stratus by 13Z, leaving VFR conditions. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Sites

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