-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
762
FXUS61 KILN 141009
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
609 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will oscillate across the region, keeping the potential for
episodes of showers and storms in the forecast each day through the
week. A seasonably warm and humid pattern will continue for the
foreseeable future. The active pattern, especially toward the end of
the week, may bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to
parts of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The initial surge of SHRA/TSRA activity into the ILN FA has
decreased in coverage/intensity as expected, but we are already
seeing signs of redevelopment on the backside of the initial shield
of pcpn along a tightening moisture/convergent axis on the nrn
periphery of the compact LL wave. Hi-res guidance has been quite
variable in the depiction of the track/development of this convergent
axis, but do think that it will pivot somewhere in the vicinity of
just S of I-70 stretching from EC/SE IN into the southern Miami
Valley and southern parts of central OH through mid morning. This may
be particularly the case from near Franklin Co IN to Fairfield Co
OH.

The strengthening LLJ has brought moisture advection back into the
area amidst increased forcing and speed convergence/lift as well.
We are still expecting a re-invigoration of intensity/coverage of
SHRA and ISO TSRA locally during the predawn hours as some LL
convergence increases within an environment with skinny (albeit
sufficient) CAPE and PWs that are around 150%+ of seasonal norms.
Several slow-moving clusters of SHRA/TSRA will pivot into EC/SE IN
and the southern Miami Valley before slowly crawling to the E through
the remainder of the night into southern parts of central OH through
mid morning.

The main concern with this activity will be very efficient/heavy
rain, especially with some very slow/erratic cell motions. Some
isolated spots may pick up another 1-2" as the clustering of storms
crawls to the E toward daybreak and beyond, which may create some
localized flooding if this activity moves over the same areas that
received 1-2+" on Saturday.

Coverage of activity locally will wane by this afternoon as the
initial S/W pulls off to the E, but with still plenty of moisture
and some instby to work with S of I-70 and particularly near/S of the
OH Rvr, some ISO to SCT diurnally- driven SHRA/TSRA are expected to
develop once again (including in central OH). This will occur as a
lingering disturbance stretched from ENE to WSW across srn parts of
the area crawls to the E through srn parts of the region. Additional
ISO pockets of heavy rain can be expected with steering-layer flow
being very weak.

Near normal temps are expected today with highs reaching into the mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Daytime ISO SHRA/TSRA activity will dissipate after sunset, yielding
dry conditions for tonight. There is an emerging signal for some fog
development tonight, particularly near/SE of I-71 and in area river
valleys. This will occur as skies become mostly clear with calm
winds and ample near-ground moisture still lingering about the
region. Otherwise, a seasonably warm and muggy night is on tap with
low temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Another S/W will approach from the SW during the daytime on Tuesday
as it rides along the NW periphery of the ridge center across the SE
CONUS. This will again bring renewed moisture advection/ascent back
into the local area, suggesting that diurnally-driven SHRA/TSRA could
be somewhat widespread, particularly across W/SW parts of the local
area. The increase in forcing/lift/moisture in from the SW on Tuesday
will mean that the potential for locally heavy rain will again
evolve, especially during the afternoon/evening as PWs surge to 150%
of norms. At this juncture, this potential looks maximized across
the SW half of the ILN FA closer to the vort lobe progressing to the
NE across IN. Will keep the mention of locally heavy rain/flooding
potential in the HWO to account for this potential.

High temps will top out in the mid to upper 80s amidst humid
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another compact vort-max and shortwave will shift up the Ohio Valley
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, providing deeper moisture and
the potential for rainfall overnight outside the typical diurnal
period. Even with ongoing thunderstorms and cloud cover, coverage
likely increases throughout the afternoon on Wednesday as the
shortwave trough axis moves through the local area. Locally heavy
rainfall/flooding remain a concern for this period, especially with
some areas seeing rainfall over the previous 12 hours.

Heading into a Wednesday night, there appears to be a small window
of slightly lower moisture behind the trough along with a building
ridge. This results in lower PoPs into Thursday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. As the ridge builds in, the stage will be
set for less clouds and higher amounts of instability. Current
projections indicate ~2500-3000 J/kg by late Thursday afternoon.
While some scattered diurnal convection will be possible, a late
evening thunderstorm complex from the northwest would also be a
plausible scenario as a shortwave moves through the lower Great
Lakes.

The front drops southward into the area Thursday night into Friday,
with additional thunderstorms expected along and south of the front
wherever it resides. For now, the highest chances are focused along
the I-70 corridor and southward. A brief dry period is expected
behind the front Friday night into early Saturday, but deeper
moisture quickly moves in from the west Saturday evening.
Disturbances within the northern periphery of the ridge would favor
additional rounds of thunderstorms Saturday night and again on
Sunday. Uncertainty is pretty high on the severe weather setup, but
given the placement of the ridge, heat and moisture will supply
plenty of energy for the weekend. The exact placement of any
particular thunderstorm complex is too uncertain to speculate at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread SHRA and ISO TSRA activity will continue through 15z
within a narrow WSW-ENE corridor stretching across the center part
of the local area. Reduced VSBY to IFR (or lower) is occurring with
the heaviest pcpn, with some MVFR/IFR CIGs also developing across the
SW toward KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KDAY through mid morning.

The MVFR/IFR CIGs will gradually lift/SCT from W to E as the
disturbance pulls off to the E of the region into early afternoon.
Some lingering activity is possible through the afternoon,
particularly near ern sites of KCMH/KLCK and srn sites of KCVG/KLUK,
but spotty SHRA/TSRA will be possible just about anywhere through the
daytime.

Some BR/FG and MVFR/IFR VSBY is expected to develop toward the end
of the period, especially in prone sites of KILN/KLUK/KLCK as
clouds/pcpn clears out after sunset and winds go calm.

OUTLOOK...Some IFR or lower VSBY is possible due to FG early Tuesday
morning. Thunderstorms are possible each day through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...KC