Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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837 FXUS61 KILN 161808 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 108 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper ridge and surface high pressure over the southeastern states will bring dry conditions and above normal temperatures to the region today. A storm system will lift northeast on Sunday, bringing a chance of rain to the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level s/w passing from the northern Great Lakes into New England today. An associated surface surface front will lay out e-w and stall out across the southern Great Lakes today. Latest satellite imagery shows mid level clouds lifting north leaving mostly sunny skies across ILN/s FA. Sunshine will combine with warm advection to push temperatures into the 40s. Expect highs front he lower 40s north to the mid and upper 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level ridge will keep the region dry tonight, with temperatures dropping back into the upper 20s and lower 30s. On Sunday, a H5 s/w will eject northeast out of the southern plains towards the region. Low level moisture will increase across the region ahead of the system. With the s/w weakening as it comes north, pcpn will not be heavy, but coverage should be enuf for likely PoPs across a majority of the region. The rain will keep temperatures down a little on Sunday, with highs only ranging from 40 to 45 degrees. Precipitation coverage will be decreasing by late Monday as the s/w passes east. Lingering low level moisture and weak lift in zonal flow will keep a slight chance of showers over the region Sunday night and Monday. Expect highs on Monday from the mid 40s over the extreme north to the lower 50s in the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes and weak front will provide a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Above normal temperatures to continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Model solutions diverge at mid week but will follow continuity and keep forecast dry Wednesday with surface high pressure building into the region. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Models differ on handling next surface low which tracks through the area at the end of the week in split flow regime. Will hold off pcpn until late Thursday afternoon and then increase pops Thursday night with approach of surface front. On the warm side of this system expect Thursdays highs from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s southwest. Pcpn to diminish from nw to se late Friday into Friday night in the wake of the front. Pcpn may mix with or change to snow prior to ending. Highs to range from lower 40s nw to the lower 50s se Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions to continue today and tonight. In warm sector expect mostly sunny skies with only thin cirrus clouds. Southerly winds will gust to around 25 kts through the afternoon. This evening will start out mostly clear with high level clouds thickening and lowering to 10,000-15,000 feet by sunrise Sunday. Model solutions have trended slower with weak mid level s/w moving across the Ohio Valley. Rain showers expected to overspread the TAF sites from the southwest Sunday afternoon with VFR cigs continuing. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely from Sunday night through Monday night with IFR conditions possible late Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...AR

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