Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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892 FXUS61 KILN 041802 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 202 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DID SEE SOME STRONGER DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR AND EAST OF COLUMBUS EARLIER UNDERNEATH AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD...BUT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDER A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE 60S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S / LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL). && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SUBSEQUENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW LOW MOISTURE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...GUSEMAN

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