Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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562 FXUS61 KILN 011939 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 339 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper low will drift slowly northeast through the Great Lakes this weekend. Under the influence of this upper low expect cool temperatures and a chance for showers through Sunday. A warmer and drier airmass will build into the region through the middle part of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Water vapor loop shows an upper low spinning over northern Indiana this afternoon. Much of the shower activity up to 19Z has been near the upper low, a few of which have been brushing our extreme northwest CWA. Still expect isolated to scattered shower development further east and south into the CWA given vort max in southwest flow and minimal daytime heating. Highest coverage/probability would be across the northwest CWA not only closer to the low but also where there is some instability. This is also the area that would be most vulnerable for isolated thunderstorms into early evening as well. Pops will trend downward after sunset, with low chances continuing across the northern portion of the CWA as the low treks into southeast Michigan. Clouds will hang tough throughout the CWA as guidance suggests a decent stratus deck developing, perhaps with some local visibility restrictions in fog too and therefore have patchy late night fog in the grids.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper low drifts across the eastern Great Lakes and into the Northeast states through Monday. Influence from the upper low is expected to be less on Sunday. After morning stratus, there may be some breaks in the clouds by afternoon. Still can`t rule out a few showers, but coverage should be more sparse and mainly in the isolated category on Sunday. Dry weather and more sunshine are then expected for Monday as the flow becomes increasingly anticyclonic. Warming trend should also begin with highs near 70 Sunday and in the lower to possibly mid 70s for Monday. Lows will be slightly above average, favoring lower to mid 50s both Sunday night and Monday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Upper level ridge extending from New England into the Gulf of Mexico will keep dry and warm conditions across the region into Thursday. A trough will move from the Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late in the week. 12Z models continue to show discrepancies in timing which may be related to the handling of Hurricane Matthew off the Atlantic coast. Have leaned toward ECMWF for timing which would push a cold front through the region on Friday with a chance of post-frontal showers. This will bring temperatures down closer to normal by Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level low continues to rotate slowly north and is currently located near Fort Wayne. Almost all TAF sites are VFR this afternoon with many breaks in the clouds. Latest suite of high res models have continued to back off on the chance of precipitation this afternoon as the area broadly remains in a weak sinking motion (due to NVA). Later this afternoon there still remains a chance of shower development as the NAM shows another wedge of upper level lift (PVA) swinging across the area. Forecast soundings during this time have weak/skinny but sufficient CAPE for isolated shower formation. Sunday morning, most guidance and forecast soundings again point to widespread IFR/ MVFR cigs. SREF/ ARW/ NMM all show this with scattered IFR. Given the low level moisture being trapped this makes sense. Lower visibilities though aren`t as certain. Have only brought vsbys down to IFR at the normal problem sites. As the sun comes up cigs and vsbys will slowly rise and most likely remain MVFR through the morning. The upper level low will finally depart Sunday along will the chances of rain. Forecast soundings show drier mid and upper level air working into the area pushing PWATs down to around 0.8". This also decreases instability to near zero. OUTLOOK...No impacts to aviation expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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