Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242325 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 725 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. A DRIER AND SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BACK ACROSS INDIANA...BUT GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. SUPPOSE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WITH THESE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOISTEN UP AND BETTER FORCING APPROACHES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...WORKING INTO EASTERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST NOW WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITIES...SO TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY TONIGHT AS THEY WILL LIKELY DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND POSSIBLY CLOUDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK BACK UP SOME. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. PCPN SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN TRY TO WORK IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...WE WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY COULD DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA SOME TIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS AND GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL JUST KEEP SOME LOWER END POPS ACROSS PRIMARILY OUR NORTHERN AREAS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP TO BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ON THE FORECAST ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND A COINCIDING SURFACE LOW FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THIS REGIME. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SPINS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...HAVE TRIED TO BROADLY CAPTURE THE FIRST TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BY FORECASTING LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE MID WEST. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS FURTHER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CLOUDS ARE THICKENING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR STL. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING IN STARTING AROUND 07Z AT CVG AND LUK...THEN REACHING EASTERN TAF SITES CMH AND LCK BY 10Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE LOW CENTER AS IT CROSSES OHIO AROUND 14Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS SHOWN TO INCREASE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS CEILINGS SCATTER...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...LATTO AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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