Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 230632 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 232 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture from Cindy will overspread the region today. A cold front will drop southeast across the area Friday afternoon and evening, with heavy rainfall possible ahead of this front. Temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A shield of light rain continues to hold together fairly well as it tracks north/east through the FA this evening. Rainfall, in general, has been quite light thus far (on the order of several tenths in most places - locally higher in extreme southern portions of the FA). Hi-res models /in particular the HRRR/ have consistently handled this pcpn poorly as the coverage has been well- maintained thus far this evening. Therefore, have upped PoPs early tonight, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor, as the shield shifts N/E thru the FA. Given current trends, the light rain may not completely dissipate and/or move out of the area before additional scattered redevelopment initiates towards the end of the near term period, especially for northern portions of the area. Despite the rain-cooled air over the southern FA this evening, do expect temperatures to hold fairly steady through the overnight hours. In fact, with persistent southwesterly flow and a tropical-like airmass in place, temperatures may be steady or even slowly rise through the overnight hours for areas that have cooled down thus far due to the rain. Regardless, it will be a muggy night, with temperatures and dewpoints around 70 degrees area-wide by sunrise Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Friday morning looks wet as the upper level trough axis continues to amplify with a strengthening RRQ approaching from the west. Overall this event has the symptoms of a PRE. As the tropical cyclone approaches a band of precipitation will form Friday morning and be driven frontogenetically (as seen on GFS fgen vectors). The event also is not directly from Cindy but indirectly. The ILN forecast area is in a RRQ and the fgen band looks to help to strengthen the upper level jet. The ILN forecast area is also north and left of the forecast track for Cindy (and north and west of a low level theta-e ridge axis). Run accumulated precipitation on the GFS, ECMWF, NAM and CMC show widespread totals of one to three inches with isolated totals of three to four inches. Give the strong upper level divergence/ diffluence, near max PWAT values, and vorticity advection have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA except Auglaize, Hardin, and Mercer counties. WPC also has the area in a day 2 moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Friday afternoon the band of heavier precipitation will slowly sag southeastwards as the upper level trough approaches from the northwest. The remnants of Cindy will also push east across Kentucky at this time. This means heavy rain will likely continue through the day Friday. Late Friday evening the remnants of Cindy will skirt just south of our southern zones with rain slowly coming to an end early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes with westerly flow over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure to begin nosing into the Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect pcpn to stay north of the area with cool highs in the mid/upper 70s Saturday. Shortwave pivoting through the mean trof over the Great Lakes may lead to few showers but expect this pcpn to stay north of ILN/s FA. Cool temperatures to continue with Sundays highs in the mid/upper 70s. With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and middle 70s. Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday with highs generally in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday in the lower 80s. Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs Thursday in the lower and middle 80s. The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn. With an increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Area of rain moving east-northeast will exit ILN and DAY TAF sites as it reaches CMH/LCK and lingers there for a few hours early this morning. Area of rain well southwest of the region will work in and most TAF sites will be raining towards daybreak as the remnants of ts Cindy gets pulled northeast and into the Ohio Valley this afternoon. Attm, showers are not exhibiting any lightning from this system and the instability with the northern line of storms will weaken as the moisture tap from the gulf interrupts the deeper convection as the forcing of the front moves south into the region. Widespread rain will be found over all of the TAF sites at one point in time today, but models continue to vary in the timing and placement of the heaviest rain, which would have the higher propensity of thunderstorm activity today. Continue to hold off on inclusion of TS at TAF sites for now given uncertainty in spatial and temporal coverage of the thunder. As the front begins to move through towards evening, winds will shift more westerly and then northwesterly, with a rapid improvement as rain ends from nw-se. MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely linger for a while after rain ends, with an improvement to generally clear skies at end of the extended TAF period at CVG. OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks

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