Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 042115 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 515 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS HEATING DECREASES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF PERSISTENCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN FRIDAY. THEREAFTER RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO CAP OFF ATMOSPHERE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS. HAVE GONE JUST A SHADE LOWER THAN MOS FOR LOWS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE FA. WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITHOUT A LOT OF CONTINUITY DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. TOUGH TO TIME THE STORMS IN TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES THOUGH SO WILL STICK WITH THE TREND OF COVERING THE THREAT WITH A VCTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR BR/FG RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK. WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL

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