Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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744 FXUS61 KILN 072355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 655 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A DEEPENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PIVOT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UP AND INCREASE AS THESE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER...PERMITTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT AND ONLY DROPPING TO 30-35 DEGREES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MOVE EAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR AND NOT SEE THAT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARRIVE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL CROSS IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG WEST OF THE REGION...THE AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SEE SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE CWA AND THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH INSOLATION. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. TO THE NORTHWEST...THERE MAY BE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN BUT EVEN HERE WILL SEE SOME TYPE OF MIXING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING BACK. THE UPPER LEVEL S/W ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GO NEGATIVELY TILTED IN THE LATE PART OF THE DAY AND THIS IS WHEN THICKNESSES TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND ANY RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. QPF FIELDS ON THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE INCREASED AS THE COLD PUSHES OF AIR MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS. ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...SEVERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH SNOWFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT JUST ABOUT EVERYONE IN THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND WRAPPING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL GET REINFORCED AS NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS HELP TO USHER IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO SPARK SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE OFFING...THERE WILL MOST DEFINITELY BE SIGNIFICANT BREAKS AND THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING REMAINS WELL BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A DEEP H5 TROF STILL ANCHORED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC AND H8...NW CAA FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. UPPED POPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIKELY IN THE E...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE IN THE WEST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK OFF THE LAKES...BREAKING UP THE FETCH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES FROM SW TO NE. CENTRAL OHIO INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO COULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY HOWEVER. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WASH OUT ANY PCPN...BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE A MODEL SWINGS SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RUN IT IS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE PUSHING ANOTHER CDFNT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...SO DID MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE ECMWF. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OVER THE LAKES. MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE LAKE EFFECT THAT FAR OUT. WENT WITH FLURRIES ON SATURDAY FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY THERE MIGHT BE ENUF SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO KILL ANY PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S BEFORE RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BACK AROUND FOR SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CDFNT. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 06Z AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR IN THAT AREA WITH THOSE CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS CLOSER TO 00Z. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...

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