Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050811 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 411 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A TIGHT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS AN ALMOST STRATIFORM RAIN JUST NE OF CWA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ORIENT ITSELF MORE W-E NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF SHOWERS SKIMMING SW CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND MOVE OUT OF CWA BY LATE MORNING. THE W-E BAND OF SHOWERS N OF I-70 WILL WEAKEN AS AFTERNOON APPROACHES DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION. AS IT DOES WEAKEN...IT WILL BE PIVOTING FROM A W-E ORIENTATION TO A SW-NE ONE THAT RUNS THROUGH RICHMOND AND CELINA. ANY WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF A LIGHT NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUTED IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL SATURDAY. THE DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY BUT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF OVER THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AM NOT SOLD ON THE FRI PM PRECIP AS THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING IN. SATURDAY RAIN IS BEING SHOWN AS MUCH MORE ROBUST WHEN LOOKING AT SEVERAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA LATE IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE AREA OF RAIN MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM CWA WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT. KEEPING A GENERALLY COOL FORECAST WITH A DECENT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY...LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. DID NOT SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY CONTAINING THUNDER WITH DEEP FORCING EXITING THE AREA. SATURDAY THE THUNDER WAS ALSO KEPT OUT AS THE MEAN H5 RIDGE WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND EXPECTED RAINFALL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH FRONT STALLED OUT IN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POPS UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. WAA OVER THE FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY...PUSHING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED H5 LOW IS DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. WRN EDGE OF PCPN WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS BRUSHING BY CVG/LUK SO HAVE A VCSH FOR THOSE TWO LOCATIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE LOW TRAVELS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 09Z. CIGS WILL RECOVER TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE...THEN RISE TO VFR BY AFTN. BY THEN THERE COULD BE A FEW SHRA AROUND AS THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN PASSES THRU THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...SITES

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