Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240221 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT UNDER THIS INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY AIRMASS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE 50S. CONTD PREV FCST THINKING GOING ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN COLD OUTLYING LOCATIONS TO MID/UPR 40S IN CITIES. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG...JUST ADJUSTING TIMING A LTL LATER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW CLEAR...DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SLIPPING A BIT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TUESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND PRECIP. NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE REGION OF SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WX. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS LOCALIZED FOG WHICH WILL AFFECT KLUK OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST ON WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...AR

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