Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 271058 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 558 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR WILL HANG TOUGH TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS A PERSISTENT DRAW OF COLD AIR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER REST OF OHIO VALLEY WILL CLEAR UP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. WITH THE UPWARD MOTION OF THE TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ENDING THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LETTING LOWS DROP TO AROUND 20. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST...BUT THE WARMER AIR WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S...SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RESULTS OF SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR BEING USHERED IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A MINIMAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER SATURDAY ONWARDS...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TEMPERATURES DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN BY TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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INCREASING NLY SFC FLOW BEHIND A H5 S/W WILL HELP PULL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SWD ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS AND TIME SECTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MVFR IS MORE SCATTERED THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH THE CAA ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AGAIN AFT 00Z. NW FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALLOW SOME FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY KDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AFT 06Z SFC RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS IN CVG/LUK...BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HANG AROUND AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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