Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 251053 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 653 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... It looks like maybe a few showers are trying to develop across southeast Indiana in the southwesterly low level flow/WAA pattern. Both the hi res and synoptic models have been fairly consistent indicating at least some spotty development moving into our southwest through daybreak. Any showers that do develop will be moving into a relatively dry airmass though, and the models are suggesting that there should be some dissipation in them after daybreak as they lift northeast into our area. In continued weak WAA, expect temperatures today to climb up into the lower 80s. This will lead to destabilization through the day with surface based capes pushing up into the 500 to possibly 1500 j/kg range later this afternoon. However, with little in the way of forcing, coverage should remain fairly isolated so will keep pops in the 20-30 percent range through today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid 80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range Thursday into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances will be characteristic of the long term period. With signal for warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to increase temperatures over the superblend. The superblend seemed especially low for Memorial Day. Increased temperatures over the blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon convection limits temperatures. At this point limited any thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited instability. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak mid-level disturbance will track across the area this morning. Shower activity has been unimpressive, owing to a dry low level airmass and weak forcing. However, will keep VCSH in the TAFs this morning for the possibility of an isolated shower until this disturbance passes. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in response to daytime heating, but likelihood is very low given weak forcing today. Models show another disturbance tracking eastward across IL/IN this evening may trigger a broken line of showers/storms, but this activity is expected to dissipate before reaching the terminals tonight. Winds will remain generally out of the south through the TAF period, increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Kurz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.