Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270117 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 917 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FOR FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN TO HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT STABILIZED. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT. LARGER SCALE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE PRIMARILY DRY. THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THE REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ONLY HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY IS IN A RELATIVELY RECEPTIVE YET NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE ATMOSPHERE. I EXPECT THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE E-SE AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND WINDS SHIFT NW TO N. SOME AFTERNOON RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PERCOLATE SOUTHERN CWA TOWARDS A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND REMAIN OUT OF OHIO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES EAST WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A DRYING LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WHILE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ARE MARGINAL...THEY ARE SQUARELY FOCUSED OVER KENTUCKY WITH THE HIGH PUSHING THE FOCUS SOUTHWARD. WHILE I BELIEVE THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT BRING ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...I COULD NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING WORKING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND KEPT AN ISOLATED POP IN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER KY AND W OF METRO CINCY WHERE UPPER 60S WILL HOLD TOUGH WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR DOES NOT GET BOOTED OUT BY THE HIGH PRESSURE. DO NOT THINK THAT LOWER 90S AND SOMEWHAT HIGH HUMIDITY OVER METRO CINCY AND SOUTHERN CWA MERITS ANY HAZARDS IN THE OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND. FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HEAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE KEPT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST FAVORED. SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE SUN SETS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TAF SITES DRY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALMOST ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN MUCH OF THE AREA WAS ALREADY WORKED OVER EARLIER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD HINDER ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT NORTHERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BR DEVELOPMENT AT KILN/KCVG AND IFR VSBYS AT KLUK. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING... DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS FOR THOSE SITES THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...KURZ

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