Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 171534 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1134 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... As surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, increasing southerly flow will bring moisture into the Ohio Valley today. Showers and thunderstorms chances will increase today ahead of a cold front which moves across the area tonight. Drier and cooler conditions are expected on Friday, as high pressure moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... An extensive cu field has developed across the forecast area and expect thunderstorm development over the next hour or two. Hi res models are also supportive of this. In addition there is a broken line of storms in Indiana and expect these storms to move into the region as well this afternoon. The main threat with these storms this afternoon will be damaging winds, however an isolated tornado or large hail cannot be ruled out. In addition heavy rain will be possible with the storms as well. Temperatures have already climbed into the 80s and are expected to peak in the middle to upper 80s today. Went close to guidance for high temperatures for today. Winds have also already started to pick up with wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph expected through the afternoon and into the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Ongoing storms this evening along pre-frontal trof with moderate instability over the area. Thunderstorms will propagate east across ILN/s area with a few strong/severe storms possible this evening. Actual cold front does not move through until late tonight, so a few showers/thunderstorms could linger until the passage. Low temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. Mid level s/w to pivot from the northern Great Lakes into southern Canada with westerly flow across the Ohio Valley Friday. In the post frontal environment surface high pressure to build east into the region late in the day. This will allow for decreasing clouds. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to normal, with highs on Friday in the lower and middle 80s, && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday night will have dry weather under a ridge of high pressure. A rather potent short wave traveling across the Great Lakes on Saturday may trigger a few thunderstorms, mainly in northern locations. An extensive area of surface high pressure under a westerly flow aloft will become the dominant weather pattern for Sunday and Monday. Sunday is expected to be dry, while isolated thunderstorms may occur in southern counties Monday due to increasing humidity/instability in the anticyclonic circulation around the surface high. For Tuesday, convergence and lift associated with a cold front will produce a good chance for thunderstorms. Chances diminish Wednesday in drier air behind the front. Mainly above normal temperatures will be evident through the period, with highs reaching the 80s each day. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Southwest low level jet of 25 to 30 kts was resulting in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning. This axis of lift will pivot north through the TAF sites early this morning. These storms will bring brief MVFR vsbys and cigs. After the passage of this initial axis of convection expect mainly VFR conditions through the remainder of the morning. Better coverage of storms is expected to occur this afternoon as moderate instability and pre-frontal trof axis moves into the region. MVFR to brief IFR vsbys possible in these storms. Storms to end late this evening with the front pushing east through the area overnight. As clouds diminish fog and stratus development will be possible toward daybreak Friday. At this time have just a mention of MVFR visibilities but IFR CIGs are not out of the question in the mixed boundary layer. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts today. OUTLOOK...Fog and possible status to improve Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Coniglio/Sites AVIATION...AR

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