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000
FXUS61 KILN 162341
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
741 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected from Tuesday
night through Wednesday afternoon with well above normal
temperatures expected. The area dries out Thursday before
another system arrives Thursday night into Friday, bringing
renewed chances for rain and storms. A notable cool down will
occur this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CAMs are pretty consistent with the signal for elevated
convection to move through during the overnight hours into
Wednesday morning. Given the surface inversion that should be in
place current thinking is that severe storms should not really
be a threat. With that being said, ample shear will be in place
with DCAPE values of over 800 overnight... so cannot completely
rule out the potential for strong/damaging winds with a stronger
storm. Finally, any stronger storms may have the potential to
have high rain rates given PWATs 200% + of normal with pretty
moist vertical profiles. Additionally, winds begin to pick up
out of the south overnight as the nose of the LLJ creeps into
our area. Some question as to how much of these winds will mix
down during the nighttime hours, so started with the (typically
more robust) NBM but then massaged wind speeds back slightly
until sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The bulk of the overnight precipitation should be moving east
out of the area by sunrise Wednesday, leaving some lingering
showers through the region. As we begin daytime mixing/heating,
wind speeds will pick up notably, with southerly/southwesterly gusts
around 30 MPH by Wednesday early afternoon. High temperatures
reach the mid/ upper 70s across the region.

The bigger question mark for Wednesday revolves around the
potential for severe weather in the afternoon. Quite decent bulk
shear, really through much of the CWA, around 40-50 knots, with
subtle turning in the low levels, ample DCAPE, and decent
low/mid level lapse rates would behoove a "all hazards" severe
threat. However... early morning convection and lingering cloud
cover may inhibit warm sector destabilization. The cold front
looks to push through the area by early/mid afternoon hours,
quickly pinching off the warm sector and all instability. Either
way, as the cold front moves through the region, it should force
precipitation out ahead of it, with more robust coverage in
north central Ohio.
Again, any storms will have the capability
of producing high rainfall rates, despite being more progressive
in nature. Therefore, isolated areas of flooding cannot be
ruled out, especially given saturated soils.

After the cold frontal passage, winds turn to out of the west
and decrease in intensity. Clouds clear out as we head into the
overnight hours and temperatures fall to the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak mid level ridging will shift east across the mid Ohio Valley
during the day on Thursday. This should help keep us dry through the
daytime period with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 70s north
to the upper 70s in the south. Clouds will be on the increase
through Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching mid level short
wave.

Widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms will overspread
the area Thursday evening and continue Thursday night and into
Friday morning as the short wave energy and its associated surface
low move through the Ohio Valley. There remains some uncertainty
with the exact track of the surface low. Suppose at least some lower
end severe threat may be possible if the low tracks far enough north
and we are able to pull some surface based instabilities up into our
area.

A west to northwest flow pattern will then remain in place across
the region through the weekend and into early next week. A broad
area of surface high pressure over the Plains will gradually build
southeast across the Ohio Valley to the southeast US through Monday.
This will help keep our area dry but seasonably cool through Monday
with daytime highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s and overnight lows in
the 30s both Saturday night and Sunday night. Some short wave energy
will eventually drop down from the northwest late in the period,
leading to some lower end pops on Tuesday. Temperatures will begin
to moderate slowly with highs on Tuesday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance continues to suggest two periods of showers and storms
during the TAF period. First will be during the early morning
hours Wednesday. The second, which contains the potential for a
few stronger storms as well as gusty winds, will likely arrive
Wednesday afternoon.

Outside of convection, southerly winds will likely gust to near
30 knots at times from midday through late afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are
possible Thursday evening into Friday. Wind gusts around 30
knots are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...