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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 172302
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
702 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FORECAST AREA IS PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. WITH CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG EVIDENT...ISOLATED TSRA COULD FORM THIS EVENING IN OUR
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MAJOR FORCING
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP CELLS FROM BECOMING NUMEROUS.

THAT WILL CHANGE LATER TONIGHT WHEN A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...AND THERE WILL A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO ABOUT 64.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY NOON TUESDAY AS ONE SHORT
WAVE TRAVELS THROUGH KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS MAY BE OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE GREATEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
HELPED BY A MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING EAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT MID WEEK
WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LTL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND CLOSE TO NORMAL
THURSDAY.

MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS RETREATING SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

SOME MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND RESULTANT...HEAT AND SUPPRESSION OF DEEP CONVECTION.
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF THRU SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW SLIGHT CHC POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW POP CHANCE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOME
EVIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SINCE A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIMEFRAME
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE LIMITED POPS. SFC FRONT TO LAY
OUT ACRS SRN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP CHC FOR
PRECIP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH.

IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TIME POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

S/WV ENERGY NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY
INTO OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO BRING TEMPO CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK. SO WILL USE
VCSH/VCTS THROUGH 12Z AND WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR SMALL
ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AT THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BLOW OFF PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THE
OCCURRENCE OF MVFR MIST WILL BE LOW...SO HAVE REMOVED. THIS WILL
BE CONDITIONAL AT KCVG/KLUK SHOULD PCPN OCCUR...BUT WILL WAIT AND
SEE ON THIS AS STATED ABOVE.

ON TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED S/WV PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. MODELS BRING ANOTHER S/WV IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS STARTING AT 18Z. FOR THE 30
HOUR TAF AT KCVG...S/WV SHOULD BE MOVING BY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
AT WHICH THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL COME TO AN END.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN