Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 220841 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 341 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild temperatures are expected once again today as rain showers spread slowly north into the region through this afternoon. Periods of rain will continue tonight into Monday as an upper level low pressure system moves across the southeastern United States. A drier but cooler airmass will settle into the region for Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An area of weak elevated convection is continuing to work slowly northeast across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio early this morning with a few of these showers clipping our far northwestern counties. The HRRR is showing this activity slowly weakening through daybreak so will just linger some lower chance pops for the next few hours. The upper level low over the Southern Plains early this morning will push east into the southeastern United States through this afternoon. Ahead of this, a vorticity axis is forecast to rotate northward into the Ohio Valley through this afternoon. There remain some differences among the models as to just how far north this axis will make it and how much it will weaken as it moves north. Overall though, there has been a southward shift in the northern extent of this axis so will trim back pops a bit for later today, ranging from chance pops in the north to likely across the south. The models have also backed off on their instabilities so will also remove thunder wording. In a continued mild airmass, expect highs today in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The upper level low will rotate northeastward tonight and then slowly ride up across the mid Atlantic States Monday into Tuesday. As the low begins to pivot more to the northeast, several bands of energy rotating around the low will help spread rain showers back north/west across our area tonight into Monday. The models have backed off some on the QPF amounts, with the axis of better QPF mainly remaining just east of our fa. Nonetheless, will have categorical pops across our east tonight into Monday, tapering back to likely across our western areas. Precipitation should then gradually taper off from the west Monday night as the low lifts off to the northeast and mid level ridging builds in across our area Monday night into Tuesday. A cooler airmass will filter into the region for the start of the work week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Tuesday mainly in the mid 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A significant change in the overall mean flow will occur during the coming week, with ridging building into the western United States and troughing in the east. This will signal a return to more normal winter like temperatures late in the week along with the chance for periodic light snow showers and rain showers from Wednesday night into Friday night.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers that formed earlier this evening have since started to dissipate with all TAF sites currently VFR (except KLUK). During the day today an upper level low over the TX/OK border will organize and push east with an arm of PVA moving across our southern zones. In association with this upper level lift a band of showers with potentially some thunder will work its way north and weaken as they push towards the Ohio river. Over the last couple of days models have struggled significantly on the track of the upper level low and this band of PV that is forecasted to push north. The GFS/NAM initially had the low further north meaning greater chances of rain while the ECMWF had the low further south meaning a lower chance of rain. The new 22.00z NAM is now further south and has trended towards the ECMWF. Looking at high res models there has also been a drying trend keeping the band further south. This is further supported by NAM/ GFS forecast soundings. Due to the mentioned above have trended TAFs drier. Sunday evening into Monday morning the upper level low will get pulled northeast pulling the rain northeast with it. Based off the track of the low KDAY could remain dry through the issuance. Remaining TAF sites look far enough south or east as to receive precipitation. Uncertainty still remains though as the track of the low and PV remains muddled. As the low approaches cloud bases will also begin to lower meaning VFR conditions will give way to MVFR conditions this evening and potentially IFR conditions Monday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible into Monday night. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday. MVFR ceilings possible again Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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