Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 242020 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 420 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front has stalled across the area this afternoon and will wash out this evening. High pressure will then build into the area Sunday. A stronger cold front will push across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday. Above normal temperatures will cool toward more typical late September readings early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A weak cold front has stalled across the area this afternoon and will wash out later this evening. There is some left over cloud cover along the front at KDAY and KILN which will continue to erode through the day. Overnight into Sunday morning surface high pressure will be centered over New England and edge into the area. This will make for a temperature gradient across the area with the coldest temperatures towards the northeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday afternoon the washed out cold front will start heading north as a warm front as a much stronger front approaches from the west. During the day Sunday the ILN forecast area will be in between two upper level lows with mid level ridging amplifying over the area. The broad upper level low over the western United States will start to pull northeast and merge with a shortwave trough over southern Manitoba. Another piece of energy will break off from the low and head southwest towards the Gulf of California. As this happens a mid level ridge will amplify over the west coast with the mid level low retrograding underneath the ridge forming a rex block. This will push the upper level low over southern Manitoba east dragging a surface cold front through the area. Global models are in pretty good agreement with the front clearing the CWA by Monday afternoon. Rain chance with the front look pretty good but the precipitation should be pretty light with embedded thunder. Forecast soundings on the GFS show PWAT values only around 1.5" while the NAM has PWAT values around 1.8". Instability along the front is limited also. As the front moves through the area winds could be breezy as the gradient tightens and low level winds begin to mix down. This will also be dependent on how quickly the front moves through. A slightly quicker passage would allow for daytime mixing and slightly breezier conditions. Monday night into Tuesday morning the front will have cleared the area with surface high pressure nudging east. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the 40s for the first time since June of 2016.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A closed upper level low will move across the Great Lakes through mid week. Energy rotating around the low will eventually allow for the trough/low to dig down into the Ohio Valley region. The 12z GFS is more progressive with this feature, keeping it as a trough and shifting it off the East Coast through the end of the week. However, the 12Z ECMWF closes off the low and actually retrogrades slowly west across the Upper Ohio Valley through the end of the week. This results in some uncertainty in the forecast as we head through next week. For now, will allow for a few showers across mainly our north on Wednesday as the better energy transfers down across our area. Will otherwise maintain a dry forecast through the long term, although if the retrograding ECMWF ends up being right, some lower end pops would also be necessary Thursday into Friday but given the uncertainty, think the best option at this point is to trend toward a blend. This will lead to below normal temperatures through mid week with highs mainly in mid to upper 60s. Will then allow for a gradual warming trend through the end of the week with highs into the mid 70s by Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low level moisture stuck behind a cold front has gradually decreased today as drier air advects from the north. While other sites have become VFR and should remain so until BR reduces visibility at LUK late tonight, MVFR ceilings may hang around briefly at DAY before dissipating later this afternoon. Winds will be out of the northeast to east in the circulation around high pressure centered over southern Canada. OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday, mainly in the morning and early afternoon. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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