Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291229 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 829 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COMPACT VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TAKING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH IT. WITH HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY ONE LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS RELATIVE TO ANOTHER. WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD MEAN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST BRING LOCAL DOWNPOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY. HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST TIMING INDICATED IN TAF FCST. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...PADGETT

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