Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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685 FXUS61 KILN 191755 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1255 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north through the day allowing for unseasonably warm air and the potential for record temperatures by Tuesday. An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place through the week allowing for multiple rounds of rain across the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A warm front will continue to lift north into the southern Great Lakes today. Moist, low level ascent will bring the highest chance of rain to the far northern zones through early afternoon, with spotty to scattered precipitation elsewhere. By afternoon, low level forcing will being to pivot to the north and northwest, where showers will be more confined to the far northwest CWA. Can not rule out a chance of thunder in the stronger forcing locations. It appears that the heaviest of rain today will fall to our north and northwest, so there is no plan for a Flood Watch at this time. On warm, southerly winds, highs today will range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. Record high temperatures for today are at CVG 74 set in 1939 (forecast high 69), at CMH 70 set in 1939 (forecast high 65), and at DAY 70 set in 1939 (forecast high 65). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Temperatures will not drop much overnight tonight with southerly flow continuing. The area will be on the edge of a continuous stream of moisture. The greatest chance for showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will be across northwestern portions of the forecast area northwest of Dayton. It is also across this area where temperatures will be slightly cooler than the remainder of the area on Tuesday due to the rainfall potential. Warm air will continue to surge into the region on Tuesday. The most breaks in the clouds will be southeast of Interstate 71 and therefore this is also the area that will see the highest temperatures. Have high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s across northwestern portions of the forecast area to the upper 70s along and south of the Ohio River and up into portions of the Scioto Valley. If there ends up being a little more in the way of scattered showers then temperatures will likely be a little cooler. Record high temperatures for Tuesday are at CVG 72 set in 1891 and 2016 (forecast high 77), at CMH 68 set in 1891 and 2016 (forecast high 74), and at DAY 69 set in 2016 (forecast high 72). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Active pattern into the weekend will bring multiple rounds of rain. With ground already saturated, there will be a persistent elevated flood potential. A cold front will move into the forecast area late Tuesday night and progress southeast of the area by Wednesday afternoon. 00Z guidance is showing some timing discrepancies with this feature. Leaned towards the ECMWF which is supported by SREF mean. Rain will occur generally along and behind the front. Some weak instability is forecast to develop with the boundary, so cannot rule out a bit of thunder. Looks like greatest rainfall will occur in the northwest counties with amounts decreasing as the rain progresses southeast. However, a wave traveling along the front after it clears the area will bring another surge of rain, especially across the southern counties, later Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts with this secondary area may end up being greater than initially behind the front in the southeast. Precipitable water will be very high (over 200 percent of normal), so rain could be very efficient with locally moderate to heavy amounts. Areal average rainfall for this two day period looks to range from .75 in to 1.5 in. Temperatures will remain very warm ahead of the front with readings dropping on Wednesday as it passes through the area. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday night and Thursday but still be above normal. High pressure moving across the Great Lakes will try to ridge south into the forecast area late Thursday, but this will be brief. A warm front will lift into the area late Thursday night into Friday. The high precipitable water will return with this front. Low pressure traveling along the boundary will bring another round of rain on Friday. The front may sag back south after this wave passes, but return again late Saturday as a stronger area of low pressure approaches. This will result in more rain into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will likely be enhanced as each of these lows track through the area. Temperatures will remain mild for this time of year, especially lows. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front will continue to lift north to the southern Great Lakes this afternoon. Widespread showers associated with the front should lift north of all terminals by mid to late afternoon. MVFR conditions should improve to VFR by this evening. Gusty winds from the south will diminish some by this evening. For tonight, warm, southerly flow will continue. There will be a slight increase in winds to bring gusts back in by 06Z. In addition, nocturnal low level jet over the top of the region will enhance, bringing the threat of non-convective LLWS around 2000 feet. Models indicate that in the low level moist flow, some MVFR ceilings may redevelop, especially for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. On Tuesday, significant warm air advection and diurnal mixing will continue and increase southerly winds. Wind gusts by 17Z should range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s knots. Lingering MVFR ceilings at the northern terminals should lift to VFR during the morning. Precipitation in the form of showers will stay to the north and west of the terminals. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday through Saturday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/Novak NEAR TERM...Hickman/Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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