Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 081937 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 337 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED THIS WAY WITH THE UPDATE FOR THE HWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN END TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON SATURDAY AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL BEGIN TO BRING DISTURBANCES ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FORCING FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN OHIO AND IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION/CLOUDS...BUT WE HAVE BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MLCAPES NOW INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. IF WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...THESE WILL LIKELY FILL IN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HANG ON TO JUST A VCTS MENTION AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS HANGING ON TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK FAIRLY DIURNAL AT THIS POINT SO WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR BR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KLUK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...HATZOS/LATTO AVIATION...JGL

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