Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 270820 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 420 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN DURING THE WEEKEND...CAUSING AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH NORTHWEST OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN FWA AND OKK. THE SLOW MOVING CLUSTER COULD REACH WEST CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING SO INCREASED POPS THERE THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES COULD SEE THE MOST COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COME INTO PHASE...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND TRIGGERING CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH. HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE RETURN FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S...THEN RISING AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S ON FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...CMC...AND GFS FOR SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...HAVE SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION FOR MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND PER A GFS/CMC BLEND. FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY WILL SHEAR SOME AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY CONTINUES TO PIVOT AND SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. PCPN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY. ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE BEING MOST FAVORED. SUMMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS WARM/MOIST AIR CIRCULATES AROUND ELONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL DIP SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLUK WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING PCPN TOWARD SUNRISE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE TO THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE... HAVE LIMITED PCPN MENTION TO VCTS FOR THE PERIOD WHEN THE GREATEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...AR

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