Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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141 FXUS61 KILN 250759 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 359 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... It looks like maybe a few showers are trying to develop across southeast Indiana in the southwesterly low level flow/WAA pattern. Both the hi res and synoptic models have been fairly consistent indicating at least some spotty development moving into our southwest through daybreak. Any showers that do develop will be moving into a relatively dry airmass though, and the models are suggesting that there should be some dissipation in them after daybreak as they lift northeast into our area. In continued weak WAA, expect temperatures today to climb up into the lower 80s. This will lead to destabilization through the day with surface based capes pushing up into the 500 to possibly 1500 j/kg range later this afternoon. However, with little in the way of forcing, coverage should remain fairly isolated so will keep pops in the 20-30 percent range through today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid 80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range Thursday into Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances will be characteristic of the long term period. With signal for warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to increase temperatures over the superblend. The superblend seemed especially low for Memorial Day. Increased temperatures over the blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon convection limits temperatures. At this point limited any thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited instability. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure sits off to our southeast while a mid-level disturbance currently over lower Ohio Valley will head our direction later this morning. The 25.00Z ILN sounding confirms a very dry airmass near the surface, but southerly flow will continue to draw increasing moisture into the region through the day today. Mid level clouds will increase from the southwest towards daybreak. Given the current dry airmass and expected increase in cloud cover, opted not to include any BR at KLUK, but cannot entirely rule out a brief period of minor, shallow BR there before daybreak. Aforementioned weak mid-level disturbance may provide enough lift for spotty showers to affect western terminals after 11Z this morning, as latest hi-res models continue to show. This activity would weaken as it progresses northeastward toward the Columbus terminals this afternoon. With only weak forcing, do not expect more than scattered coverage, so have only gone with VCSH. Also cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in response to daytime heating, but have left out of TAFs due to low confidence in timing and location. Winds through the TAF period will be generally out of the south, increasing a bit this afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Kurz

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