Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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971 FXUS61 KILN 180747 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 347 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry air and mainly clear skies over the region through the week. Temperatures will gradually warm as the high moves slowly east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure will extend from the mid Atlantic back into the Ohio Valley today. Skies will be mainly clear. Temperatures early this morning will drop into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Some patchy frost is still possible. Also, some river valley fog is expected for southern river valleys through sunrise. Under abundant sunshine and a southerly flow, highs will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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The surface ridge axis will shift a little east tonight into Thursday as a dry cold front pushes east/southeast into the Great Lakes. Again, only a few cirrus is expected, with perhaps a FEW-SCT cumulus clouds developing along ahead of the frontal boundary in our far northwest late in the day Thursday. After a warmer day and a little more pressure gradient, lows tonight should range from the lower 40s in the low lying/sheltered locations to the upper 40s across higher terrain and our northwest zones. On Thursday, southwest to west winds ahead of the front along with sunshine will boost highs into the lower 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Under an amplifying mid-level ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, a sprawling area of very dry surface high pressure will be moving slowly east on Thursday night, still maintaining control of the weather situation over the Ohio Valley for another couple days. Aside from a very weak cold front stalling out (and then returning north) in the northern Ohio valley on Thursday night into Friday, there will be little change in the overall pattern through Friday night. Low-level warm advection, with gradually increasing 925mb temps, will allow for Friday to be slightly warmer than Thursday. As confidence has increased in a more amplified pattern on Saturday, with deep-layer flow becoming more southerly over the Ohio Valley, there is greater confidence as well in temperatures being warm for the first day of the weekend. If the forecast for max temps in the middle to upper 70s verifies, it will be about ten degrees above normal. This looks to be the warmest day of the entire forecast period. On Sunday, a sharp but narrow trough will begin its progression eastward across the Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching the Ohio Valley at some point between then and Monday. Model timing agreement remains somewhat sub-par with this system, and the differences are primarily focused around the interaction between the southern end of the trough (which may form a cut-off low) and the strong jet stream pushing east across the northern tier of states. Unfortunately, this time frame remains in an unstable part of the forecast cycle, with GFS/ECMWF run-to-run consistency performing poorly. With the above in mind, PoPs will be kept in the chance range until this really gets locked in a little better. As of now, the greatest precipitation chances appear to be during the Sunday night forecast period, possibly continuing into Monday. Once the trough and its associated cold front pass through the area, there appears to be potential for a larger upper trough to move into the Great Lakes late on Monday and into Tuesday, which should provide two things -- much cooler temperatures and continued chances for rain.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure centered over the middle Appalachians will extend west into the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. For early this morning, river valley fog will once again be a concern at KLUK where VLIFR will likely occur between 08Z and 13Z. Fog should burn off by 14Z. Otherwise, only FEW cirrus are expected through the period. Winds will increase from the south between 5 and 10 knots by 16Z then diminish after 23Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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