Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 131149 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure extending across the area will quickly move east today. Low pressure will move out of the upper Midwest today and track across northern Indiana and northern Ohio this evening. High pressure will build in Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Short wave over the Dakotas early this morning will move southeast into the area by late in the day. There will be a fair amount of mid cloud out ahead of this system, although southern counties may just have variable cloud cover. Associated low pressure system will move into northern Indiana by late in the day. Precipitation developing along warm front in advance of this low will likely pass north of the forecast area, although cannot completely rule out a brief period of light snow in the far northern counties around midday. The chance of snow showers will increase late to the north of Dayton as the low gets closer. Any snow accumulation during the day should be quite light. South winds increase today. Where the is a bit more sun, there will be more mixing, so there could be some gusts up to 30 mph in the southern counties. The variation in clouds will also have an effect on temperatures. Areas along and south of the Ohio River are forecast to get into the 40s. Meanwhile far northern counties will struggle to reach freezing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As low pressure quickly moves across northern Ohio this evening, snow showers will occur, mainly across northern counties. At this point, accumulations of an inch or more are expected to be limited to the far northern tier of counties within the forecast area. Scattered snow showers may develop further south ahead of a cold front extending south of the low with light accumulations possible. Snow will not last long with activity tapering off after midnight. As the cold front moves through and cold air advection commences, winds will strengthen with gusts up to 40 mph possible. These winds will diminish rather quickly late tonight as the low moves further east. High pressure will build in on Thursday. It may take a good part of the day for lower clouds to decrease across the area. And there will be a cirrus shield moving into the area late in the period. Went below guidance for lows. Guidance looked reasonable on Thursday except in the far north where the snow is expected to accumulate tonight. Undercut highs there by a few degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will allow for dry conditions at the start of the long term period Thursday night. With cool airmass in place and light winds, even with cloud cover expect temperatures to drop down into the teens to around 10 across the region. A weak upper level disturbance will bring light snow showers to primarily northeastern portions of the area on Friday before moving out of the region Friday night. Snowfall accumulations with this system are expected to be generally less than an inch. A warmer day is expected for Saturday with WAA. High temperatures will range from the middle 30s to middle 40s. WAA continues into Sunday as well with temperatures generally in the 40s. A system moving into the region on Sunday into Sunday night will generally be rain along and south of the Ohio River with a rain and snow mix north of that area. There will be some lingering light precipitation on Monday as an upper level disturbance moves through. Dry conditions will briefly build in for Monday night as the area is between systems. A weak system will move through on Tuesday, however there is very little moisture to work with and limited precipitation mention in the forecast to northeastern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will occur through at least the first half of the day with primarily mid clouds. South winds will strengthen through the day with some gusts up to 25 kt possible. As low pressure and a cold front cross the region, there will be some snow showers, mainly affecting the Columbus terminals. Winds will veer and strengthen further with gusts around 30 kt. Ceilings will lower to MVFR first from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK, eventually working south across the rest of the area through the night. Winds will gradually diminish late in the period and veer to the northwest. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday and again on Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...

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