Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 310859 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP EASTWARD TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME SSW AND WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE MERCURY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW...RISING TO THE UPPER 30S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WILL STREAK NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH PULLING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE FA RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH IN NRN KENTUCKY TO 8-10 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. AHEAD OF THE LOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG I-70 WHERE A MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AND IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE PURE SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED. ANOTHER 3-7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS MERCER...AUGLAIZE AND HARDIN COUNTIES. THE LOW WORKS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM CHANGING ALL THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP WINTER STORM WATCH UP. HOPEFULLY WITH ONE MORE RUN OF THE MODELS A TREND WILL BECOME CLEAR. THE WINTER STORM WILL BE COMING TO AN END ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW...GUSTY NNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT. WITH THE WARMER AIR EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY HIGHS AROUND THE OHIO RIVER WILL REACH AROUND 40...THE MID 30S AROUND I-70 AND THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 IN THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL ONLY REBOUND TO THE TEENS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 20S IN THE S ON MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN SNOW-COVERED AREAS TO APPROACH OR EVEN DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES. COMBINED WITH SOME WIND (GENERALLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY 12Z)...WIND CHILLS APPEAR LIKELY TO DROP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SPECIFICS BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. QUICK WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD...AND VALUES WERE RAISED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY SUBDUED ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE TAIL END A NOSE OF PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT WESTERN SITES AFTER ABOUT 3 OR 4Z WHICH WILL LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR RANGE. ATTM...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT CVG/LUK BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH THE MIX NORTH AND MIX OUT ANY LOWER CEILINGS IN THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME. KDAY AND KILN STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING PLAIN SNOW AS A START TO THIS WINTER EVENT. KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 6Z. OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072. KY...NONE. IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...FRANKS

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