Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 640 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SOME STRATUS FORMING OVER EASTERN OHIO AND ANOTHER BATCH MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL EXPAND AND MOVE INTO CWA THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUD SKY COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 AND WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 FOR A PLEASANT FALL DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK. TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON MONDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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H5 S/W THAT IS PASSING THRU KY IS BRINGING SOME AC TO THE SRN TAFS ATTM. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FCST. IN ADDITION...SOME ST DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFTED INTO CMH/LCK. THIS ALSO SHOULD WORK E QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING FOG AT LUK AND ILN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. WEAK CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON. CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. SE FLOW SHOULD BRING IFR FOG AGAIN TO LUK WITH MVFR FOG TO ILN. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...SITES

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