Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 192341 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 741 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN INDIANA IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED SO FAR TO NORTHERN INDIANA ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. DUE TO THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE HWO. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING ALTHOUGH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA CLOSER TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH NW FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THURSDAY...A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION BY THURSDAY EVENING. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH EMBEDDED S/W ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS UPR LEVEL SUPPORT WILL AID THE DEVELOP OF CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING IN THE MODERATELY UNSTBL AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FCST. HAVE ALL PCPN ENDING BY 06Z BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THIS CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN TAFS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME TAF SITES DROPPING TO IFR CATEGORY. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...AR

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