Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181923 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 223 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A few rain showers will possible this afternoon and this evening across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky, as an upper level disturbance tracks through the Tennessee valley. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, today through Tuesday, with the next chance for rain showers Tuesday with the approach of a front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Weak returns are currently near interstate 71 this afternoon with light rain being reported at KCVG. Across the south temperatures have been a bit suppressed this afternoon thanks to widespread cloud cover while across the northeast temperatures have risen very quickly. KCMH has already broken its record high temperature for this afternoon as of 1230pm. The upper level low over Arkansas will continue to push east this afternoon helping to keep the precipitation mostly across the southeastern zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday morning a weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest and stall. Ahead of the front winds will decrease with moisture pooling out in front. This will make for a cloudy night and Sunday morning. Lower PWAT air will then clip the CWA and briefly allow PWATs to fall to around 0.40" (on both NAM and GFS). Heights will then continue to rise as a broad upper level trough exits the area. 850 mb temperatures Sunday are around 8 degrees C which would again support high temperatures in the lower 60s. The only concern with how warm we will get Sunday will be how long clouds from the morning hang around. Overall have tempered high temperatures a bit for Sunday given the morning clouds.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For Sunday night and Monday, surface high will be centered to the northeast, with the axis of a high amplitude upper ridge crossing the ILN area. This regime of scant moisture and forcing points to a warm and dry period to start the long term. Next system to produce precip will be a front extending from the polar regions into the tropics. This front has been very consistently represented on models for several days, raising confidence that showers will be moving in Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Weak temperature gradient and lack of cold air aloft should keep thunderstorms from developing. High pressure and a dry airmass are forecast to return Wednesday. For Thursday, some increase in moisture along a developing warm front may produce a few showers. Showers will be likely and thunderstorms possible Friday along a strong cold front swinging in from the west. Geopotential surfaces that will be well above normal for February, coupled with a southerly surface flow carrying warmer air, will produce temperatures that are far above normal. Highs in the 60s each day will contrast with normal highs in the lower to middle 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... All TAF sites are currently VFR with mid and high clouds increasing across northern Kentucky. Weak returns are appearing on the radar this afternoon and will likely remain near and southeast of interstate 71. This is thanks to weak isentropic upglide and a weak 700 mb deformation band. High res models also in general support this with better coverage south and east. By 6z Sunday morning any precipitation that does form will be starting to exit the region. Sunday morning a weak frontal boundary will sag and stall just north of KDAY. Not surprisingly right ahead and along the front high res models are restricting visibilities and ceilings. The SREF probabilities also support this. Later Sunday morning lower PWAT air will filter into the northern zones (GFS PWATs < 0.5") and help to clear some of the low clouds out (esp. towards CMH/LCK). Further towards the south and west the lower PWAT air will not ever make it. Due to this some high res models never clear out KCVG/ KLUK and keep them MVFR. Overall think this is overdone. Most likely KCVG/KLUK will eventually breakout Sunday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures Date CVG CMH DAY Sat 2/18 68(1948) 63(1948/1994/2011) 64(1948) Sun 2/19 74(1939) 70(1939) 70(1939) Mon 2/20 72(1891/2016) 68(1891/2016) 69(2016) Tue 2/21 70(1930) 71(1997) 68(1930) && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Haines CLIMATE...

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