Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261954 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTH AHEAD OF A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG I-71 IS MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTH... PUSHED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTAINING AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT NORTHERN LOCATIONS. ANOTHER SHOT OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI IS LIKELY ARRIVE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH IT MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL POSITION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S FAR SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THURSDAY STARTS OUT WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MIDWEST AND A WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN OFF OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A H5 S/W MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE H5 S/W CROSSES...ANY CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A LULL IN ANY RAINFALL WITH AN EASTERLY DRYING WIND ON SATURDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A REPEATED PATTERN WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WITH AN EASTERLY ORIENTED WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP STARTING WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CULMINATING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER OHIO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS ANOTHER S/W MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD TURN OFF ANY RAIN MONDAY. GFS...EUROPEAN...AND HPC GUIDANCE ALL DIFFER BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE GFS IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE WAVE AND SHOULD BE THE WAY THE PATTERN EVOLVES GIVEN H5 ZONAL FLOW. EUROPEAN HOLDS BACK THE SURFACE LOW MONDAY AND HPC GOES EVEN FURTHER WITH KEEPING THE CIRCULATION IN OHIO THROUGH TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND KEPT A COOLER FORECAST UNTIL MON/TUES AS THE CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WITH A HIGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCATTERED SHRA AND CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR OHIO RIVER DURING THE EVENING. MODELS INDICATING AT LEAST MVFR CIGS ACROSS FCST AREA AFTER 03Z INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THOSE IN FCST WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT NEAR 18Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NEAR 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...PADGETT

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