Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 180547 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 147 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep dry air and mainly clear skies over the region through the week. Temperatures will gradually warm as the high moves slowly east. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The center of an expansive area of surface high pressure remains anchored just east of the Ohio Valley along the central spine of the Appalachians. Although a FEW cirrus will progress eastward across the southern quarter of so of the ILN FA overnight, mainly clear skies are expected throughout the area. With the mostly clear skies and light/calm winds, do think that some river valley fog may form again late tonight, especially in the Ohio River and lower Scioto River basins. With coolest temperatures in the east across portions of central and south- central Ohio, maintained the forecast of patchy frost as well. This being said, with temperatures expected to be a degree or two warmer across the board tonight compared to last night, frost may be a bit more localized this time around. Nevertheless, maintained mention in the HWO for patchy frost across the eastern third or so of the FA. Lows will range from around 40 degrees in the west to the upper 30s in the east (with mid 30s possible in a few rural/outlying areas). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure will be pushed eastward a bit by some modest mid level short wave energy. Little change in weather conditions will be observed through Wednesday night in the very dry airmass remaining in place, except for a minor increase in cloud cover ahead of the short wave. Temperatures will start a gradual warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in the continuation of dry conditions. Warming trend will continue through the rest of the week, although highs will plateau in the lower to mid 70s. Upper ridge axis will translate east over the weekend as a short wave tracks west to east across the continent. In the 12Z guidance, the ECMWF continues to have more amplitude with this system which results in a slightly slower progression compared to the GFS/Canadian. Forecast leans towards the latter although have lingered PoPs a bit longer due to the timing uncertainty. A cold front will accompany the short wave, and in its wake, temperatures will drop with readings falling to below normal by the end of the period. A northern stream short wave dropping into a developing long wave trough on Tuesday may bring some additional showers to the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Surface high pressure centered over the middle Appalachians will extend west into the Ohio Valley through the TAF period. For early this morning, river valley fog will once again be a concern at KLUK where VLIFR will likely occur between 08Z and 13Z. Fog should burn off by 14Z. Otherwise, only FEW cirrus are expected through the period. Winds will increase from the south between 5 and 10 knots by 16Z then diminish after 23Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...KC/Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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