Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151751 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1251 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure was located just north of the area today as a frontal boundary remains stalled to our south. The front will push north as a warm front tonight and Monday allowing for milder temperatures and an increasing chance for showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through the region on Tuesday offering more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure was located just north of the area this morning with low level dry air getting hung up just north of DAY/ CMH. This has allowed low clouds to clear out across the north with widespread low clouds across the central and southern parts of the CWA. Patchy fog from this morning has slowly started to lift and turn into a low ceiling while drizzle has also started to come to an end. The main concern for this afternoon is the approach of a shortwave from the west with returns on the radar already seen entering southern Indiana. Have gone ahead and raised PoPs across the southern tier of the CWA as omega values continue to indicate the best lift there. Not surprisingly this is also where the best moisture is (closer to the stalled front). Further north more low level dry air exists (also closer to surface high pressure) and therefore will likely stay rain free this afternoon into evening. Also made some minor downward trends in high temperatures for this afternoon thanks to widespread cloud cover and precipitation moving in. Looking at 1000/850 mb thicknesses alone would support high temperatures around 40 degrees. The warm layer around 850 mb make this value to high and with overcast/ mostly cloudy skies added on think mid to upper 30s is more likely. New zones already out. Prev Discussion -> Surface high pressure over the region this morning will allow for a temporary dry period. Some partial clearing clearing has taken place across the far northern counties, but elsewhere low clouds have remained in place. Abundant low level moisture has lead to widespread fog development. Low level flow has kept the fog from becoming dense but some locally protected spots may experience dense fog at times. The high will slide east of the region and weak isentropic lift develops over the far south late this afternoon. Have limited pops to chance category late in the day south. Highs today to range from the mid/upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak isentropic lift to pivot north through ILN/s FA overnight. Forcing is not very impressive, so have limited pops to slight chance. Temperatures to drop off a little this evening and then steady out overnight with lows from the mid/upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Northern portions of CWA may observed some very light freezing precip overnight. Probability and any possible amount are too low for a headline at this time. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night and across the Great Lakes Tuesday. In warm sector have limited pops to slight chance/chance pops durg most of the day Monday. Highs on Monday to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with nose of 50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play. Have categorical pops developing overnight. Expect non diurnal temperature rise Monday night. The front to push through on Tuesday afternoon with a continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. On the warm side of the system expect highs on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid 50s nw to the mid 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build in at mid week and move off to the east. Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop as weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge, with latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered off to our north this afternoon with low clouds trying to break across our northern taf sites. An upper level disturbance off to our west will continue to work into CVG/ LUK this afternoon while at the same time halting the advance of the low level dry air. Monday morning the weak upper level lift from the disturbance working in combination with some low level moisture will produce some very light rain. At the same time dry air moving in from around 600 mb looks to transition the light rain back over to drizzle by Monday morning. High res models kind of hint at this. Have included the mention of drizzle in the TAFs for all locations except CMH/ LCK (closer to the low level dry air). With the abundant low level moisture CIGs will also likely remain LIFR. During the day Monday some high res guidance is indicating that a recovery to MVFR will be possible but looking at GFS/ NAM forecast soundings this will probably be hard to come by. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines

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