Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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646 FXUS61 KILN 270720 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 320 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push east across the region today. High pressure will briefly build in behind the front tonight. A frontal boundary will develop and then linger across the area through the first half of the weekend. This will result in unsettled conditions.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mosaic radar early this morning continues to show a decreasing trend in echo coverage and lightning activity to our west. Precipitation to our west is within a prefrontal convergence area. High resolution/convection allowing models indicate that by the time the precipitation reaches our western zones toward sunrise, coverage should be scattered with little in the way of thunder. For today, as low pressure moves north toward eastern Lake Superior, a cold front will advance east across the forecast area. There should be enough forcing and some diurnal instability for a chance of showers and thunderstorms for roughly the eastern half of the CWFA. There is a low chance for an isolated strong/severe storm (wind) as the front pushes east. It will be breezy given fairly decent pressure gradient and winds mixing down from aloft. Wind gusts will be the highest in the climatologically favored Whitewater/Miami Valleys and west central Ohio where wind gusts maybe as high as 35 mph. High temperatures will be somewhat muted in terms of a normal diurnal trend due to clouds and some CAA behind frontal passage. Will forecast highs from the mid 60s far west to the mid 70s far east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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The cold front will have cleared our area by this evening, allowing weak high pressure to build into the middle Ohio Valley overnight. Post frontal stratocumulus clouds should scatter, eventually being replaced by some mid/high clouds streaming in from the southwest aloft. Winds will diminish fairly quickly near or after sunset. Lows will fall into the mid and upper 40s toward sunrise Friday morning. On Friday, weak high pressure will move off to the east. In a southwest flow aloft, a weak disturbance and developing isentropic lift will increase clouds from west to east through the day. A few showers may develop across the western CWFA late in the day. There will be a decent temperature gradient from northwest to southeast due to differences in the thickness of cloud cover and the overall low level thermal fields. Highs will range from the upper 60s northwest to near 80 along and south of the Ohio River.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday morning is the calm before the storm, as the day starts off dry. Some weak shower activity is possible nw of I-71 Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s in the nw to upper 70s along the Ohio River. While all models are suggesting a widespread rain event in the Ohio Valley beginning Friday night, there continues to be a large spread in the timing and placement of the heaviest QPF. Models bring a swath of convection ne into the region Friday night along a developing frontal boundary. It appears that the best chance of rain by 12Z Saturday while be across central Indiana into the Whitewater and upper Miami Valleys. The boundary tries to buckle northward on Saturday, pushing the better chance of rain to the north and northwest of the fa. Still held onto chance PoPs in case something pops in the warm sector. The region will see a wide range of highs for Saturday, with southern section making the mid 80s, while the nw counties will be held around 70 or the upper 60s due to the clouds and rain. As a deep H5 low kicks out of the Rockies on Sunday, the warm sector will expand northward. An isolated shower will be possible and highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Models have adjusted the timing of a strong cold front passage. The 12Z run now have the front around the Ohio/Indiana border around 12Z Monday. Expect a line of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night and Monday morning with fropa. It looks like highs will be early in the day with falling temperature during the afternoon. Temperatures will be much colder behind this front for the middle of next week. Highs will be down into the 60s. Models are now suggesting that precipitation might try and develop along the Ohio River for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As low pressure lifts north toward eastern Lake Superior today, a cold front will advance east across the region. Before any precipitation arrives toward the western terminals by sunrise, we first must deal with winds increasing along with a strong low level jet aloft. The strong low level jet requires at least a period of non-convective LLWS at the terminals roughly between 06Z and 12Z. For today, high resolution models/convection allowing models are really backing off on precipitation coverage ahead of the front across our western forecast area. Also, instability is expected to be fairly low this morning. As a result, just have a chance of showers for western terminals this morning. It is unclear if ceilings will lower into the MVFR category west due to lack of widespread rain. Have kept ceilings VFR. As the front moves east this afternoon, there may be enough diurnal instability for a chance of thunderstorms toward the KCMH/KLCK. Winds will be gusty with a subtle shift in wind direction from south to southwest behind frontal passage. Expect wind gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range. For tonight, front will be east of the area. Weak surface high pressure will build briefly into the middle Ohio Valley. Post frontal stratocumulus clouds should scatter through the evening with some mid and high level clouds arriving from the southwest aloft. Gusty winds should diminish fairly quick after sunset. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Monday. Wind gusts to 30 kt possible Sunday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Hickman

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