Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KILN 221047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016
High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak
cold front with limited moisture will drop south from the Great
Lakes on Saturday, followed by another high building into the
region on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cirrus debris from convection over the Upper Midwest will continue
to spill into the Ohio Valley early this morning, with some
thinning expected as the cirrus encounters a drier airmass over
the region. Do anticipate more mid/high clouds today across the
northern half of the forecast area as surface high pressure
drifts further northeast and becomes less organized, but
maintained a mostly sunny forecast. Similar highs (86 to 90) in
store for today as yesterday, perhaps a degree warmer in some
locations. As winds become more southerly, dewpoints will rise
into the lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes tonight
into Friday, interacting with some weak ripples of midlevel energy
in northwest flow aloft. PWATs will increase from around 1"
tonight to around 1.5" by Saturday. This may be enough moisture to
squeeze out some isolated showers/storms across northern Ohio late
Friday into Saturday, but instability will be meager. Thus, models
continue to favor a dry frontal passage across ILN`s forecast
area, but have bumped up cloud cover in the north. The front will
usher in a slightly drier and cooler airmass for the weekend,
especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday
and Sunday`s highs will range from near 80 in the north to upper
80s south. A mid level ridge axis will propagate eastward across
the region on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge significantly by Monday. The
GFS develops a highly amplified upper trough/ridge pattern over
the central US while the 22.00Z ECMWF has become less amplified
and much more progressive than its 21.12Z run. Despite the model
differences, weak isentropic lift out ahead of a cold front looks
to provide a chance of showers and storms on Monday. A better
chance of showers and storms will accompany the cold front as it
pushes through the region, but timing of fropa remains uncertain
due to model differences. The GFS is a much slower and wetter
solution than the ECMWF, but have maintained chance PoPs until
models come into better agreement.
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Little change in the weather pattern again today. High pressure
will continue locked in across the area through the TAF issuance.
CI blowoff from up stream convection will drift in during the
period. CI will increase in coverage overnight, becoming broken as
cdnt drops a little farther s through the lakes.
Fog should develop again tonight at LUK, despite the increasing
ci. Expect IFR vsbys aft 06Z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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