Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221047 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak cold front with limited moisture will drop south from the Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by another high building into the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Cirrus debris from convection over the Upper Midwest will continue to spill into the Ohio Valley early this morning, with some thinning expected as the cirrus encounters a drier airmass over the region. Do anticipate more mid/high clouds today across the northern half of the forecast area as surface high pressure drifts further northeast and becomes less organized, but maintained a mostly sunny forecast. Similar highs (86 to 90) in store for today as yesterday, perhaps a degree warmer in some locations. As winds become more southerly, dewpoints will rise into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes tonight into Friday, interacting with some weak ripples of midlevel energy in northwest flow aloft. PWATs will increase from around 1" tonight to around 1.5" by Saturday. This may be enough moisture to squeeze out some isolated showers/storms across northern Ohio late Friday into Saturday, but instability will be meager. Thus, models continue to favor a dry frontal passage across ILN`s forecast area, but have bumped up cloud cover in the north. The front will usher in a slightly drier and cooler airmass for the weekend, especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday and Sunday`s highs will range from near 80 in the north to upper 80s south. A mid level ridge axis will propagate eastward across the region on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge significantly by Monday. The GFS develops a highly amplified upper trough/ridge pattern over the central US while the 22.00Z ECMWF has become less amplified and much more progressive than its 21.12Z run. Despite the model differences, weak isentropic lift out ahead of a cold front looks to provide a chance of showers and storms on Monday. A better chance of showers and storms will accompany the cold front as it pushes through the region, but timing of fropa remains uncertain due to model differences. The GFS is a much slower and wetter solution than the ECMWF, but have maintained chance PoPs until models come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Little change in the weather pattern again today. High pressure will continue locked in across the area through the TAF issuance. CI blowoff from up stream convection will drift in during the period. CI will increase in coverage overnight, becoming broken as cdnt drops a little farther s through the lakes. Fog should develop again tonight at LUK, despite the increasing ci. Expect IFR vsbys aft 06Z. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kurz NEAR TERM...Kurz SHORT TERM...Kurz LONG TERM...Kurz AVIATION...Sites

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