Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 051405 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1005 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO MONDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...OFFERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON IR AND VIS THIS MORNING ROTATING NEAR THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE/ KENTUCKY BORDER. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER LOW ARE ALMOST IN SCIOTO COUNTY THIS MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWING THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH ON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HAVING THEM QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTH. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN 12Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS OF 0.77" THIS MORNING. SO OVERALL STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE HELD DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA. TOWARDS THE NORTH THE CIRRUS HAS MANY BREAKS WHICH MIGHT MAKE THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WARMER THAN THE SOUTH TODAY. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WHERE YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE. PREV DISCUSSION-> MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VLY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY BY EVENING. NAM SOLN APPEARS TO HAVE TYPICAL BIAS WITH CAPE BEING TOO HIGH. GFS BRINGS MARGINAL INSTBY WITH BLYR CAPE VALUES AROUND 400 J/JG INTO S/SE COUNTIES. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE SE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN KY TO DRIFT SLOWLY NNE INTO SRN OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ACRS UPR OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS ACRS THE FAR SE TONIGHT AND ACRS THE EAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY FROM THE LOWER 80S NE TO THE MID 80S SW. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SLOWER WITH THE NEXT TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. WILL LIMIT POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO LOW CHANCE IN THE EAST. CLOUDS AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPR 60S. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO EXTREME NW OHIO BY TUESDAY EVENING. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT 8H JET. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO LKLY BY AFTN. INSTBY WILL LKLY BE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. PW/S INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 2.2 INCHES TUESDAY AFTN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER BUT ISOLD STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO PRODUCT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 NW TO THE MID 80S SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY EAST-WEST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OCCURRING THROUGH SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS IN WEAK FORCING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP VFR AT TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT LUK WHERE BR IS FORECAST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES EARLY AND LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF SITES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONSIST OF FEW TO SCT CUMULUS BKN ALTOCUMULUS AND OVC CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY WHILE SPEEDS STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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