Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 211142 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 642 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING A WARMING TREND. A ROBUST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE PLACES THAT CLEARED FILLED BACK IN. DO EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE LOW DECK GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ALTHOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME INSOLATION TODAY WENT CLOSER TO WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FOR THE MOST PART THE REGION WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING ON THE INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY INCREASING ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SEVERAL MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY WITHIN THE MOS ENVELOPE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS OVERDEVELOPED WITH THE LOW. OTHER 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SIMILAR LOOKING SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO WORK IN COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS. SO A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE COLD ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY WORK IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWING TIMING DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE USED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE LATER KCVG TAF HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. BRIEF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KILN IF THERE ARE ANY ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT THE END OF TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.