Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 221727
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
127 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016
High pressure will remain across the region through Friday. A weak
cold front with limited moisture will drop south from the Great
Lakes on Saturday, followed by another high building into the
region on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Will continue to see some higher level clouds drifting down across
the ridge from time to time today. Still expect mostly sunny skies
though and this should allow for another warm day across the
region. Temperatures will be similar to what we saw on Wednesday
with highs today mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will drop south from the Great Lakes tonight
into Friday, interacting with some weak ripples of midlevel energy
in northwest flow aloft. PWATs will increase from around 1"
tonight to around 1.5" by Saturday. This may be enough moisture to
squeeze out some isolated showers/storms across northern Ohio late
Friday into Saturday, but instability will be meager. Thus, models
continue to favor a dry frontal passage across ILN`s forecast
area, but have bumped up cloud cover in the north. The front will
usher in a slightly drier and cooler airmass for the weekend,
especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Saturday
and Sunday`s highs will range from near 80 in the north to upper
80s south. A mid level ridge axis will propagate eastward across
the region on Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge significantly by Monday. The
GFS develops a highly amplified upper trough/ridge pattern over
the central US while the 22.00Z ECMWF has become less amplified
and much more progressive than its 21.12Z run. Despite the model
differences, weak isentropic lift out ahead of a cold front looks
to provide a chance of showers and storms on Monday. A better
chance of showers and storms will accompany the cold front as it
pushes through the region, but timing of fropa remains uncertain
due to model differences. The GFS is a much slower and wetter
solution than the ECMWF, but have maintained chance PoPs until
models come into better agreement.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Little change in the weather pattern as high pressure remains
across the forecast area. Some cirrus blowoff from upstream
convection will continue to drift into the area. Fog should
develop again tonight at LUK. Extent of fog is problematic, thus
will continue with current fcst of 1/2 mile vsby. Brief light fog
may occur at CVG near sunrise but not enough to include for now.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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