Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 191737 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME REESTABLISHED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW DIURNAL CU...EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF APPEARS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM. HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF/GFS COMBINATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING NE INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS WITH THIS INFLUX ATTM SO HAVE ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD MORNING ACRS THE SRN/SWRN CWFA WITH OTHER LOCATIONS REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. ON SATURDAY...MODELS HINT THAT PERHAPS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SPRINKLE/ISOLATED SHOWER WITH AFOREMENTIONED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST. WITH WARMER 925MB/850 MB TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER SUPPORT FROM A S/WV PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY EXIT OUR SE CWFA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ITS WAKE. CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT AND ANY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. CAA IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. AM EXPECTING HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WILL RESULT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SPOTTY DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOME LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE...SHOULD HELP LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OR SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. CHANCE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH THOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...JGL

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