Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 311519 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LEVELS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. MAIN CONCERN OF THE NEAR TERM IS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKENING AS IT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z KILN PWAT OF 0.78 INCHES. WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO RISE JUST A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL LARGELY UNIMPRESSIVE. MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT CENTERED ROUGHLY AROUND 600MB...SEEN ON THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND DEPICTED IN NEARLY EVERY FORECAST SOUNDING. THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE POOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE AREAL COVERAGE SPECTRUM. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...DECENT SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE 0-6 KM LAYER MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS SUPPORTED BY MOST HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DO LITTLE TO DISRUPT THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY REGION. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND SPEEDY UPPER FLOW MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OHIO VALLEY...A TREND THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WERE LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (A RECURRING THEME IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION THIS MORNING). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY...FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT REMAINING VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME. CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU AND THEN SOME MID CLOUDS UNTIL FRONT PUSHES EAST. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WITH FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE INTO TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SCATTERED STORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...KURZ/HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...PADGETT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.