Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020209 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1009 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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STALLED FRONT CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BRUSHED OUR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST PART CWA HAS BEEN DRY THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION INSTIGATED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE SOME CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. RANGED THE LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SWING A SFC LOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE QUICKEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...PUSHING A LARGE AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THINGS MORE MUTED WITH THE PCPN LIMITED TO KY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...SO WILL GO WITH THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY...TAPERING UP TO A DRY FCST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THE SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS ERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF PCPN GOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN KY. ANOTHER H5 S/W SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BE DEPARTING OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST TO START THE DAY SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONGER H5 S/W AND VORT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. NAM POPS CONVECTION OVER THE CWA BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC MODELS AND AN UNFAVORABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BOTH THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY PERMIT STORMS DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY OVER KY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TUESDAY. WHILE MONDAY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOSING PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT NECESSITATES LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DIURNAL HEATING ALSO SUPPORT INCLUSION OF POPS DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAD VERY LITTLE VARIABILITY AND A BLEND WAS USED WITH THE EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST. RAISED TEMPS A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...GENERALLY AROUND 70 BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MEX GUIDANCE. TRENDING THAT DIRECTION AND THINK THE MEX NUMBERS ARE NOT UNREASONABLE IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING E/SE. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CVG/LUK MID-LATE EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND POTENTIAL FOR LOW VIS IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. DO NOT BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE AS IDEAL AS LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY KEPT VIS ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN IS AT LUK/CVG. ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF IFR AT LUK...OTHERWISE GENERALLY KEPT TAFS IN VFR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT VIS COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AT LUK/CVG. SYNOPTICALLY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WHERE THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL RESIDE INTO THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH AT LUK/CVG. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAY NEED INCLUSION FURTHER NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT HAVE NOT INTRODUCED INTO THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD ATTM. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...BPP

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