Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 210842 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 442 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND SOME CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z AND TRACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 15Z. GUIDANCE IS LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SCATTERED ACTIVITY INDICATED...BUT THEN DOES START TO PICK UP IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT AND KEPT LIKELY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS WELL ABOVE MOS. SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME DIURNAL RISE ON TUESDAY EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER MOS NUMBERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIE OFF ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SO AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY FROST ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED GIVEN LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH IT WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING LIMITED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. SO IT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH DRY. 00Z MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STAYED WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FORECAST BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN. THIS SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT FOR THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE A VCSH MENTION IN AT THE END OF THE KLUK...KDAY...AND KILN TAFS. KCMH AND KLCK WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE VCSH AND THEN SHRA MOVING INTO THE LONGER KCVG TAF. LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL BY THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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