Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240232 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 932 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL OFFER MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR FORT KNOX KENTUCKY TO CHILLICOTHE OHIO HAS PRODUCED ACCUMULATIONS WELL BEYOND FORECAST VALUES. IN THE ILN FORECAST AREA...THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER THAT HAVE LIKELY SEEN AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE PORTSMOUTH AREA...SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. BASED ON LOCAL REPORTS...IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN THESE COUNTIES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING TWO INCHES...WITH MORE SNOW STILL TO COME. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH NWS CHARLESTON WV...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. STORM TOTAL SNOW GRIDS WERE INCREASED AGAIN...NOW INTO THE TWO-TO-THREE INCH RANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > A FORECAST UPDATE WAS NECESSARY THIS EVENING AFTER EXAMINING RECENT HRRR RUNS...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS OVER KENTUCKY...AND RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS A SHARP EDGE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EVIDENT IF VIEWING A LARGE-SCALE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGE (WHICH CAPTURES TOO MUCH VIRGA). LOOKING AT JUST THE KILN WSR-88D...THE CONVEX APPEARANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS AN ARTIFACT. ECHOES BEING OBSERVED FURTHER FROM THE RADAR INCLUDE VIRGA SAMPLED AT HIGHER LEVELS. CLOSE TO THE RADAR...AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...IT IS MORE EVIDENT THAT THE NORTHEASTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS RATHER SHARP. THIS EDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OWEN COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTY...AND IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION. THE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INVOLVED PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR...AND EARLY SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN AT THE HIGHER END OF WHAT WAS EXPECTED. A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING ITS WAY GRADUALLY NORTHEAST...AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILN COUNTIES (LEWIS KY AND SCIOTO OH). THOUGH THE MORE INTENSE ECHOES ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF MELTING...SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS NECESSITATED AN INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST. ALSO FACTORING IN SOME CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LIGHT SNOW FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS (UNTIL AROUND 2 AM)...SNOWFALL COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AN ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED BUT ULTIMATELY NOT OPTED FOR...AS THIS SNOW WILL BE VERY WET AND SLUSHY...AND ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WARM (ROAD TEMPS IN THE 40S). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WITH EMBEDDED WEAK VORT DROPPING THRU SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING. WEAK SFC TROF TO WORK SE THRU THE FA TOWARD EVENING. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR NORTH. SATURDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SAT NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE WORKING ACRS THE REGION. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. FOCUS SHIFTS TO CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH DROPS SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. MODEL SOLNS DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. GENERAL TREND OF SOLN/S IS A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND TAKES THE SFC WAVE THRU THE SRN I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTN. THE GFS 06Z RUN WAS A LTL SOUTH OF THIS TRACK AND NOW (12Z RUN) HAS SHIFTED THE SFC LOW TRACK TO NEAR CVG BY 00Z MONDAY WITH IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THESE DIGGING SYSTEMS. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLN AND WILL BRING CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ALL SNOW ACRS THE NORTH WITH A MIX...CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE CENTRAL AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. IT IS EARLY WITH THIS BEING A 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM I-70 ON NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH. 18Z RUNS ARE TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH STORM TRACK...SO THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER S. HAVE ADJUSTED SUNDAY/S HIGHS A LTL COLDER RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S N TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. KEPT POPS BELOW PRECIP THRESHOLD ON TUESDAY WHEN A MINOR DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO AFFECT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE PROGGED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY. CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY PUSH HIGHS UP TO AROUND 40. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES THIS EVENING. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW FLURRIES AT THE AIRPORTS...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED. AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS (AROUND 1500-2500 FEET) IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...REACHING THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING...SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER MVFR CLOUD DECK EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ100. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HATZOS

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