Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 211149 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly flow will keep warm air and a chance of rain in the region today and tonight. On Monday, a cold front will swing up the Ohio Valley, pushing a better chance of rain showers across the region during the afternoon and evening. A quick shot of light snow will be possible on Tuesday. High pressure will then offer dry conditions and near normal temperatures for the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A moist southerly flow remains over the region this morning. With the weak lift, scattered light rain and some fog has developed. Added a mention of patchy dense fog in the I-70 corridor through 6-8 AM. As today progresses, a sfc low will develop and move into the central plains. In response, a warm front develops in the lower Great Lakes. Lift will increase across the northern counties, so expect better coverage closer to the front. Can`t rule out pcpn developing across srn locations as several mesoscale models are producing a band of pcpn in Kentucky and lifting it north through the area this afternoon. So went with chance PoPs across the region. Highs this afternoon should range from the mid 40s in the north to the lower to mid 50s in nrn KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The front will continue to lift north this evening into nrn Ohio, which will pull the lift northward. This will limit the pcpn chances tonight to nrn sections. Do not expect too much of a drop in temperatures tonight with mild lows in the lower to mid 40s. On Monday, a deep closed low pushes out the Rockies and into the plains. Ahead of the upper low, a deepening surface low will eject northeast into the upper MS valley. Consensus of the models is to be a little slower with the convection. It looks like the line of showers will work through the fa on Monday afternoon ahead of the front. Model soundings continue to limit wind gust potential to mid 20s. Highs Monday will range from the lower 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Cold air will begin to work behind the front Monday night. Snow will mix in with the rain by the end of the night. The upper low ejects northeast up the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday. Winds will be strong with gusts into the 30s. An area of snow will affect the region on the strong caa. Less than an inch of snow is expected. Temperatures are expected to fall throughout the day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad surface high pressure will move east into the area during the second half of the week, as the upper pattern gradually switches from troughing to ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS. This will bring dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures through Friday. Behind the departing surface high, and with troughing developing over the plains, moist flow from the Gulf is expected to move into the Ohio Valley again over the weekend -- especially later Saturday into Sunday. Overall model agreement in this pattern remains strong across several GFS/ECMWF runs -- and without getting into specifics that far out, conditions appear warmer than normal with rain expected. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Conditions will generally be on the side of improvement this morning. Northern TAF sites will see MVFR cigs with some vsby restrictions in -ra and br early on. This will mix out as the southerly component of the wind kicks in where light southeast or calm winds are currently prevailing with lower cigs. Looking upstream towards Kentucky, cigs are improving to VFR and this is what is expected for all locations today. A few more passing showers will skirt the northern CWA and TAF sites along the I-70 corridor, primarily in the late day. Have brought in LIFR cigs for the late day and better part of the overnight. Wind shear to 40-50kt will occur during the predawn hours tomorrow as the earlier LIFR cigs lift back to VFR in strong mixing. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visbilities in rain likely late Monday into Monday evening. MVFR ceilings likely Tuesday with possible MVFR visbilities.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks

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