Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 260544 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 144 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND TROF OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS PLACES THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PASS TO THE NE WITH ALL PCPN COMING TO A TEMPORARY END OVERNIGHT. HAVE DIMINISHED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LULL. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING ALLOWED A SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS REMAINING DRY. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ HAS STARTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE LIGHT RAIN TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO COME DOWN A BIT AS THE LLJ EXITS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH PWATS CURRENTLY AROUND 1.60" ACCORDING TO GPSMET. HAVE CONTINUED THINKING THOUGH OF THERE BEING A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AREA LIES IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND A QUASI- STATIONARY LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE CAN BE CURRENTLY SEEN ON IR OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY DISLODGE THE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. PWATS TUESDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE UP AS HIGH AS 1.80" ALONG WITH A TAIL OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING (RRQ). INSTABILITY WISE THE GFS AND NAM HAVE CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 700 TO 1200 J/KG. THE NAM ALSO HAS A PRETTY GOOD WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN THE 600 TO 700 MB RANGE. THIS SIGNAL IN THE GFS IS MUCH MORE MUTED THOUGH. SURFACE DELTA THETA- E ON THE NAM IS APPROACHING 30 IN THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS ALSO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR FORECASTED IN THE MID LEVELS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SVR IN THE HWO. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LEFTOVER REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY... UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND MOISTURE ALL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE BREAK PERIODS IN THE RAIN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS USUALLY EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF EACH SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF TIMING EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE HAVE KEPT CHANCE/ LIKELY POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SOME POSSIBLE MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A 20-30 POP ON INTO THURSDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN TOWARD AND POSSIBLY THROUGH OUR FA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT TO STALL IT OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY WET/MORE ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THEY WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AM GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FOR MVFR CEILINGS PER LATEST MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR KCVG AND KDAY...AND THESE MAY BECOME A CEILING AROUND 2000 FEET OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS...ABOUT 2 HOURS LATER AT KCMH AND KLCK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SANS KLUK WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE. FOR LATER TODAY...OUR REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MORNING DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING TAIL/INFLECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL TEAM UP WITH A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND COVERAGE ISSUES WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS GOING AT THIS TIME. WILL ATTEMPT TO PICK A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE BEST CHANCE AT THE TERMINALS WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS WITH LOCAL POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS (MOST LIKELY VISIBILITIES) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CORES. FOR TONIGHT...DISTURBANCE AND ITS TAIL/INFLECTION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOIST FLOW LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 06Z TO 12Z AND WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE. .OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN

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