Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250153 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 953 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region tonight and will extend across the area into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will return for Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The 25.00Z KILN sounding was one of impressive drying/deep subsidence as high pressure over the Great Lakes builds south. Boundary layer flow was turning northeast across the area and drier air /marked by lower 60s and even some upper 50s dewpoints/ was flowing in. GOES-16 3.9 micron channel showed just a few leftover areas of flat cumulus over central Ohio, and few clouds as well across northern Kentucky, and it will take a few more hours for these to dissipate. Larger shield of clouds rotating south over eastern Ohio may try to brush portions of central Ohio later in the night but latest guidance suggests the bulk of this stays east. Forecast was in good shape and only minor edits to temp/sky/wind were needed.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure ridging will extend into the region for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Dry air will remain along with mostly sunny day and a mostly clear night. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with lows once again in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the region into Wednesday with dry conditions and nearly seasonal temperatures. A short wave will drop southeast through the Great Lakes on Thursday pushing a cold front towards the area. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the day and continue into the evening. As the cold front moves through Thursday night, precipitation will end. Upper level long wave trough will become established and persist through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered to the northwest of the area bringing a prolonged period of northeasterly winds. This fetch off of Lake Erie may bring some extra clouds and perhaps even a few showers into northwest counties. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions expected across the TAF sites through 00Z Wednesday. The only exception will be at KLUK overnight tonight with some valley fog possible, and have visibilities in the MVFR category. With drying/subsidence from high pressure to the north/east, remaining fair weather cumulus this evening will dissipate leaving a clear/mostly clear sky. Winds will go from northerly to northeasterly overnight and continue out of the northeast on Tuesday. More diurnal cumulus expected especially at northern TAF sites /KCMH and KDAY and KLCK/ on Tuesday afternoon but should only be few-scattered. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Binau

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