Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 030818 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OHIO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY IT WILL BATTLE A MOIST AIRMASS...SIGIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND AN UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE FOUND LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES BY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS THE INITIAL VORT MAX WITH THE S/W MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING AND ELONGATING WITH A N-S AXIS OVER THE IN/OH BORDER. THE REGION WILL BE IN GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER S/W...AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENING L/W TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN INDIANA IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH THE BROAD AND DEEP LIFT PRESENTED WITH THE STACKED LOW SYSTEM...THUNDER MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION WILL BE COOL AND NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEATING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S TODAY AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR WED AND THURS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 50 TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH NRN STREAM TROF SHARPENING UP AND DIGGING SOUTH ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA WEDNESDAY. WILL INCLUDE LKLY POPS EAST AND HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEST. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER DURG THE AFTN WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS WED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S. SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES TO TAKE IT OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DURG THE DAY AND A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH REMNANTS OF SFC FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD H5 TROF CONTINUES TO SEND SHEARED WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED BACK TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DESK IS NOW ONLY AFFECTING KDAY. OTHER TAFS HAVE BROKEN OUT TO A VFR DECK. BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS WILL BE VFR THROUGH SUNRISE. CANT RULE OUT SOME STRAY MVFR CIGS GOING THROUGH...SO CARRIED SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS. KDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...STAYING MVFR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...DIURNAL HEATING WILL MIX ANY MVFR CIG UP TO VFR. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...SITES

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