Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 151457 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 957 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure was located just north of the area today as a frontal boundary remains stalled to our south. The front will push north as a warm front tonight and Monday allowing for milder temperatures and an increasing chance for showers. Low pressure and a trailing cold front will push through the region on Tuesday offering more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Surface high pressure was located just north of the area this morning with low level dry air getting hung up just north of DAY/ CMH. This has allowed low clouds to clear out across the north with widespread low clouds across the central and southern parts of the CWA. Patchy fog from this morning has slowly started to lift and turn into a low ceiling while drizzle has also started to come to an end. The main concern for this afternoon is the approach of a shortwave from the west with returns on the radar already seen entering southern Indiana. Have gone ahead and raised PoPs across the southern tier of the CWA as omega values continue to indicate the best lift there. Not surprisingly this is also where the best moisture is (closer to the stalled front). Further north more low level dry air exists (also closer to surface high pressure) and therefore will likely stay rain free this afternoon into evening. Also made some minor downward trends in high temperatures for this afternoon thanks to widespread cloud cover and precipitation moving in. Looking at 1000/850 mb thicknesses alone would support high temperatures around 40 degrees. The warm layer around 850 mb make this value to high and with overcast/ mostly cloudy skies added on think mid to upper 30s is more likely. New zones already out. Prev Discussion -> Surface high pressure over the region this morning will allow for a temporary dry period. Some partial clearing clearing has taken place across the far northern counties, but elsewhere low clouds have remained in place. Abundant low level moisture has lead to widespread fog development. Low level flow has kept the fog from becoming dense but some locally protected spots may experience dense fog at times. The high will slide east of the region and weak isentropic lift develops over the far south late this afternoon. Have limited pops to chance category late in the day south. Highs today to range from the mid/upper 30s north to the lower 40s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak isentropic lift to pivot north through ILN/s FA overnight. Forcing is not very impressive, so have limited pops to slight chance. Temperatures to drop off a little this evening and then steady out overnight with lows from the mid/upper 20s north to the mid 30s south. Northern portions of CWA may observed some very light freezing precip overnight. Probability and any possible amount are too low for a headline at this time. Mid level and sfc low to eject northeast from the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Monday night and across the Great Lakes Tuesday. In warm sector have limited pops to slight chance/chance pops durg most of the day Monday. Highs on Monday to range from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 50s south. Expect an enhanced threat for pcpn developing Monday night with nose of 50 kt low level jet and axis of deep moisture coming into play. Have categorical pops developing overnight. Expect non diurnal temperature rise Monday night. The front to push through on Tuesday afternoon with a continued threat of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. On the warm side of the system expect highs on Tuesday to be around 20 degrees above normal, ranging from the mid 50s nw to the mid 60s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build in at mid week and move off to the east. Southerly flow will ensue with rising upper heights. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Some showers could develop as weak disturbances lift up the back side of the upper ridge, with latest guidance suggesting Friday being the better day to see precipitation. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low level moisture persists under an inversion on the fringe of high pressure centered over Wisconsin. Ceilings as low as 300 ft, -FZDZ, -DZ, and BR will linger for 2 to 3 more hours before drier air working in from the northwest allows conditions to improve to MVFR by mid morning. Further improvement to VFR is likely by afternoon, though showers may develop in the vicinity of CVG and LUK along a returning frontal boundary. For tonight, ceilings as low as LIFR may form again in lingering low level moisture, BR is likely to develop, and showers may lift north to DAY and ILN. Winds will shift from north to northeast as the high migrates east across the Great Lakes. Expect east winds and MVFR ceilings at CVG after 12z Monday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/AR NEAR TERM...Haines/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio

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