Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 201020 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 620 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move along a frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will push through the region and cooler air will move into the area for the start of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An area of low pressure will move across the region today. Northwest of this low more stratiform rain is expected. To the southeast of the low thunderstorms will be possible. Damaging winds and hail will be possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well especially close to the low as it moves across eastern portions of the area. As the low moves off to the northeast cooler air will filter into the region and winds will pick up.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A strong upper level trough will move through tonight into Friday. This will linger precipitation around the region through this time before gradually moving it out. In addition gusty winds will also be present during this time. A few lake effect rain showers will be possible Friday evening as well. Some clouds and winds will be present Friday night so although temperatures will drop into the 30s across the area believe that frost will be minimal. Due to this did not include in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will only be in the low to mid 50s Friday and Saturday. Went close to guidance for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday another shortwave will dive south and rotate around the upper level low over Quebec with a weak surface cold front pushing through the area Monday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive with the shortwave and surface cold front while the CMC and GFS is about 6 - 12 hours slower. Either way the better upper level forcing (PVA) all slides east of the area with PWATs remaining around or below 0.75". Due to the mentioned above have kept the area dry Monday into Tuesday. As of now the cold front also looks rather weak across our area. The upper level trough axis remains east of the region keeping the heart of the coldest air east as well. Towards the end of the long term mid-level heights will start to rise across Ohio (576-580 dam). This will equate to rising high temperatures and above normal temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area early in the TAF period which will bring temporary MVFR to IFR conditions. Once this moves through, it appears that there will be a lull in precipitation until afternoon. Lower ceilings will develop into KDAY in the morning and spread across the rest of the terminals by 18Z. Initially, these ceilings will be MVFR. However, they will lower to IFR in the afternoon. Additional showers, possibly with embedded thunderstorms, will develop and move across the region between 18Z and 00Z. Once this passes, north northwest winds will become gusty with some occasional light rain and mist in addition to IFR ceilings. OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings will persist late Thursday night into Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...Novak SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.