Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 141800 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 200 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THIS WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS AS WELL. WITH THESE VALUES BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL HANDLE THEM WITH AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHT THE WINDS IN THE HWO. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WILL BE THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AND THEN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE HAVE AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL AS THE FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA. MEANWHILE..PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN DEVELOPING CAA...THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH THE CHANGEOVER THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE 00Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SNOW...TRYING TO GENERATE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THE 13.21Z SREF PLUMES HAVE A DECENT CLUSTERING IN THE .5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH...WITH A MEAN GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. OBVIOUSLY GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM BUT THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING AT NIGHT TIME WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ELEVATION EFFECT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND THUS POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY/WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA ON TUESDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA TO PIKE COUNTY OHIO LINE. WITH CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS POSSIBLY RIPLEY AND DEARBORN COUNTIES. WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECT TO APPROACH FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVER A COUPLE OF THE COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ONLY GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COLD AS WE SHOULD HAVE SOME SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FA. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST ENERGIZED... WRAPPING UP A CLOSED H5 OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS THU NIGHT LEADING TO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND CDFNT IN THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS SWINGS THE FNT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN INTO THE FA WED AFTN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH JUST WEAK H5 TROF AND AN INVERTED SFC TROF. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC IS THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE. THE GFS LOOKS TOO WRAPPED UP. WPC MEDIUM GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER ECMWF AND SO WILL I. SO KEPT THE POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY IN THE W AND SLIGHT CHC IN THE E. THEN AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHC POPS. THE SYSTEM PULLS E ON SATURDAY...LEAVING A LINGERING SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. WITH THE REGION IN SLY FLOW ON THU HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TO THE 60S. KEPT HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S...WITH THE SE STAYING AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY...SINCE I LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF. THE WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY SO A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY IS LOW AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS. CIGS WILL LOWER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GRADUALLY BECOME IFR. LIMITED MENTION OF SHOWERS TO VCSH FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH THE SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD COVER DECREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO AGAIN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD MOST OF THE AREA TAF SITES WILL BE VFR HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ077>082-088. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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