Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221802 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 102 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passing south of the area will cause rain to move off to the east by this afternoon. Additional weather systems moving through the region into the weekend will bring more rainfall to the area which may lead to flooding. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Widespread precipitation is quickly exiting to our east. For our northwest zones, temperatures are creeping above freezing. Along with road sensors above freezing, so the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. Clouds will remain after the rain tapers off but temperatures will be able to warm some despite easterly flow. MOS seemed reasonable at this point. Highs will range from the lower 40s north to near 50 south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Brief respite from rain will come to an end during the latter part of tonight. Low level jet moving into the area will cause an area of showers to develop and spread across the region. More widespread precipitation will move out of the area with the low level jet. As this happens, a warm front will then be able to lift across the area late tonight into Friday morning. A cold front will quickly follow in the afternoon. There will be additional showers and some thunderstorms ahead of this feature. Precipitable water remains extremely high and warm cloud depths are substantial especially given the time of year. So an convection will have the capability of producing very heavy rain. No changes to the flood watch at this time. MOS blend looked good for lows but went above guidance for Friday highs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active weather pattern will remain in place across the region Friday night through Sunday morning. Multiple rounds rain will move through during this time. One area of rain will be situated across far southeastern portions of the forecast area at the start of the long term. As a warm front then slowly moves northwards through the night Friday night and into the day on Saturday, moderate to at times heavy rain will occur. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will struggle to rise north of the front with north of Dayton to Columbus not expected to make it out of the 40s. Along and south of the Ohio River however temperatures will rise into the 60s. It is across this area where there will be a greater likelihood of thunderstorm activity, while north of there thunder chances should be limited. Temperatures will continue to climb into the overnight hours as the warm front pushes northward and warmer air surges into the region. The combination of an approaching cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring widespread and additional moderate to heavy at times rain to the region. There is additional instability this time across most of the region Saturday night. With this in mind have thunder chances in overnight Saturday night across the entire region. Winds increase during this time and will be gusty. Winds will approach wind advisory criteria across northern portions of the region along and north of Dayton to Columbus late Saturday night into Sunday morning. In addition, cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind threat with thunderstorms due to the strong wind fields. Rain will move out Sunday morning with the passage of the cold front and dry conditions will finally return to the region. Before the rain moves out Sunday morning, multiple inches of rain will be possible from the Friday night through the Sunday morning timeframe. High pressure will then move into the region and dry conditions will be present through Tuesday night. Models diverge after this time on how quickly to bring the next system into the region. At this time limited precipitation chances on Wednesday to the chance category. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The region is now in a lull in terms of precipitation chances as the wave of low pressure has moved off to the northeast. For the remainder of the afternoon, MVFR/IFR ceilings can be expected at the terminals. For tonight, frontal boundary to our south will begin to move north as a warm front while a cold front intersects this boundary as it approaches from the west. Deep, rich moisture will return in the southwest flow aloft along with an embedded disturbance and associated developing low level jet. This will result in an increasing threat for showers. Instability will also increase for a chance of thunderstorms. Rain will be moderate to locally heavy at times, resulting in IFR ceilings and visibilities with pockets of LIFR ceilings possible. On Friday, the warm front will lift northeast while the cold front sags southeast into our region. Showers will be ongoing during the morning (embedded thunder), which a decreasing trend in the precipitation threat behind the cold front. Will continue with IFR conditions through the morning, but as we head into the afternoon, conditions should transition to more MVFR as rain intensity diminishes and ceilings lift above a 1000 feet. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings may linger Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ063>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Hickman

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