Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261755 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG (1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...NONE. IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...PADGETT

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