Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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604 FXUS61 KILN 270218 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1018 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. In the warm and humid airmass on Saturday, a few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible. By Sunday into Monday, several weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Thunderstorms have quickly dissipated in the last hour or so with only a few lingering showers left across our northwest. Will hang on to some low pops for the next couple of hours to account for this and then try to dry things out overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge centered over the central Appalachians builds a little to the north on Saturday. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, we see an increase in the instability Saturday afternoon. Because of the position of the H5 ridge, there is a lack of forcing across the fa, so limited pops to 20 to 30 percent in se IN and wrn OH. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the extreme wrn locations because of the pcpn chances so held high temperatures in the upper 80s. Farther e, highs should make the lower 90s. this will push heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100, so will adjust the wording in the HWO. Saturday`s convection could bleed over in the early evening hours before it dissipates. For Sunday, we get a little more upper support as some vortices rotate around the ridge. Have chance PoPs for the entire fa. Muggy conditions are expected again on Sunday with highs from the upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. Heat indices on Sunday will be similar to Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the late day in a continued humid airmass. Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the lower 60s by weeks end. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered convection near southwest ohio TAFs. Will keep VCTS around for a couple of hours. Activity should diminish through the evening. Look for some fog toward sunrise in usual favored areas. Should be VFR conditions outside convection this evening and fog areas near sunrise through fcst period. Isolated shra/tsra Saturday afternoon with heating but to small coverage area to mention in TAFs. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Padgett

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