Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 010557 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 157 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA. IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES. OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH 12Z. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HAS PROVIDED LOW LEVEL GROUND MOISTURE FOR MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BROUGHT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 SM AND TEMPO CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 500 FEET. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR...LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z. MIST/FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW SO IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...AM ONLY EXPECTING MAYBE A POP UP SHOWER/STORM IN THIS LOCATION WITH JUST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SOME RETURN FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE POPS A LITTLE NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS THREAT WITH THE NEXT SET OF TERMINAL FORECASTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.