National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 061738
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1238 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A WARMING
TREND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN...BUT SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WORKING N FROM THE
SYSTEM IN THE SEEP SOUTH. EXPECT THIS ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO BE THIN
ALLOWING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. STILL SHOULD SEE A RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. INCREASED SUNSHINE
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL COMBINE TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ABOUT
50.

A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTAINING LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
PRIMARILY LIQUID EVENT IN A REGIME OF RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL TAKE PLACE
IN A REGIME OF MAINLY WNW FLOW ALOFT...AND ALTERNATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE LOW
TRACKS MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
REGION VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFSE SPREADS BY MONDAY ARE NOT
INDICATIVE OF PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF THE TIMING
OF ALL THE WEATHER FEATURES...AND THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY
CLOSE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS...THE 00Z ECMWF WAS QUITE DIFFERENT
IN PHASE.

AFTER A COOL DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THAN
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN A WHILE. IN FACT...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPS MAY APPROACH 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLOSED H5 LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. AS IT DOES...SOME CI WILL SPILL UP INTO THE ERN
TAFS THIS AFTN. BY 00Z EXPECT THE BKN CI TO BE E OF THE TAFS JUST
LEAVING SCT CI.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND RISING
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MVFR FOG TO THE TAFS TONIGHT.
WITH THE WEAK SE FLOW KLUK MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF IFR FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE TAFS WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...SO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES