Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KILN 270218
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1018 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. In
the warm and humid airmass on Saturday, a few afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible. By Sunday into Monday, several
weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance
for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Thunderstorms have quickly dissipated in the last hour or so with
only a few lingering showers left across our northwest. Will hang
on to some low pops for the next couple of hours to account for
this and then try to dry things out overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 ridge centered over the central Appalachians builds a little
to the north on Saturday. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, we see
an increase in the instability Saturday afternoon. Because of the
position of the H5 ridge, there is a lack of forcing across the
fa, so limited pops to 20 to 30 percent in se IN and wrn OH.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the extreme wrn
locations because of the pcpn chances so held high temperatures
in the upper 80s. Farther e, highs should make the lower 90s. this
will push heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100, so will
adjust the wording in the HWO.
Saturday`s convection could bleed over in the early evening hours
before it dissipates. For Sunday, we get a little more upper
support as some vortices rotate around the ridge. Have chance
PoPs for the entire fa.
Muggy conditions are expected again on Sunday with highs from the
upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. Heat indices on Sunday will be
similar to Saturday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over
the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the
potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the
late day in a continued humid airmass.
Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and
retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over
the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The
northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler
period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90
will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be
a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the
lower 60s by weeks end.
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered convection near southwest ohio TAFs. Will keep VCTS
around for a couple of hours. Activity should diminish through the
evening. Look for some fog toward sunrise in usual favored areas.
Should be VFR conditions outside convection this evening and fog
areas near sunrise through fcst period. Isolated shra/tsra
Saturday afternoon with heating but to small coverage area to
mention in TAFs.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.