Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 181926 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 326 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front over Indiana and Ohio will further weaken and wash out over the area, with a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A disturbance shifting through later tonight and Tuesday will continue the chance of showers and storms, before a drying trend takes over for the middle and end of the upcoming work week. Temperatures will remain above to well above normal for the foreseeable future.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Weak cold front is decaying across eastern Indiana and western Ohio this afternoon. Under weakly diffluent mid to upper tropospheric flow, the peak of the diurnal destabilization cycle will combine with a ribbon of anomalous precipitable water near the decayed front to continue scattered showers and storms through mid evening. 18.19z mesoscale analysis indicates SBCAPE has risen to near 1000 J/kg, so there is plenty of instability for showers and a few storms. Very weak flows evident on the 18.18z Jose special sounding from ILN...with bulk shears < 15kts which keep updrafts unorganized and brief, so only locally heavy rain from the strongest cores. Latest radar loops show that strongest updrafts will propagate on developing cold pools, which should keep any localized flooding threat brief. Will have 20-40% rain chances focused mainly west of I-75 through the evening hours, trending back toward midnight. Later in the night, shortwave trough clearly seen in GOES-16 water vapor loops over Iowa/Missouri will approach with the trough axis cutting across the area after 12Z. Have rain chances increasing again toward sunrise in eastern Indiana and then western Ohio as this feature approaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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The shortwave trough will move across the area Tuesday morning, with a rather well defined 700-500mb trough axis/convergence zone. As this feature interacts with the residual PWAT ribbon from decaying frontal zone from this afternoon, should see showers and a few storms increase in the morning into the early afternoon especially across eastern indiana/western Ohio with best focus across the northern half of the ILN forecast area. Should see a diminishing trend in the activity through the afternoon as the shortwave weakens as the large scale ridge works against the smaller wavelength feature. Once a little sun breaks out later in the afternoon, expect another mild afternoon with highs a few degrees either side of 80F. Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast. For Wednesday, a weak short wave will work slowly into the area undercutting the mean ridge. The greatest instability and weak forcing will be along the fringe of the ridge mainly along the western and southwestern forecast area. As the ridge continues to strengthen during the latter part of the week, with H8 temperatures in the 16-17C range for late week mid 80 high temperatures will work into the area.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the TAF sites through the period, though there is some uncertainty on potential MVFR ceilings and/or visibility later tonight with some light fog, and then with showers on Tuesday morning. Radar has quieted down over the past few hours with most showers dissipating. A sct-bkn mid deck exists early this afternoon and a few-sct cumulus deck will develop through peak heating. A weak front in the area and differential heating boundaries will likely spark mid-late afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms, most likely near DAY/CVG between 20Z and 02Z. Some of these may linger through the night especially near/north of KDAY. Uncertainty rises later in the night with any fog formation potential. Expect a fair amount of clouds to persist through the night as shortwave trough approaches. If clouds end up less than forecast, visibilities may be lower with more valley fog. Right now playing less restrictions to visibility and more clouds, but this will need to be watched. Expect showers to develop/move across the area Tuesday morning, but rates are expected to be light with minimal impacts to aviation. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Binau

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