


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --708 FXUS61 KILN 080144 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 944 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the area this evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected. While slightly less humid conditions are expected on Tuesday, heat and humidity will remain in place through the week, with occasional chances for storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --While most of the storms have dissipated and moved away from the ILN FA, the front continues to crawl to the ESE across the area, aligning itself very close to the I-71 corridor as of late this evening. Although the lift along the boundary will be very meager, it will continue to provide a focus for ISO SHRA/TSRA activity through the overnight period given the abundant of LL moisture ahead of it and the maintenance of some low-end elevated instby. This is particularly the case in central/south-central OH where PoPs have been adjusted upward through daybreak to account for the expectation for ISO activity to linger through the night. There is even a signal amongst some of the hi-res guidance for an increase in coverage in central/south-central OH between 08z-12z, so chance PoPs were added in these areas accordingly. Elsewhere, some low stratus and fog is expected to develop/expand, with the best signal for some areas of fog likely in EC IN and WC OH. Too early to say just how dense this fog may be given uncertainties in the stratus coverage itself, but some patchy dense fog may be possible in these areas, as well as those that received appreciable rainfall earlier today, by late in the overnight. Lows will range from the upper 60s in WC OH to lower 70s in the lower Scioto Valley.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... By Tuesday morning, the cold front is forecast to be most of the way through the ILN forecast area, but it is expected to weaken and mostly wash out by the time peak heating is underway. Regardless of how this plays out, there is strong agreement that the air mass will be a little less moist and a little less unstable. With no clear signs of forcing, any convective activity should be much more isolated. For the ILN CWA, any storm chances on Tuesday will be favored in the southeastern CWA. Still, could probably not entirely discount the chance of a shower just about anywhere -- though the chances are very low at any given location. Anything that develops will likely dissipate by evening, leading to dry conditions overnight into Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An active long term pattern will be in place with daily thunderstorm chances. Daily thunderstorm chances will keep temperatures generally in the 80s, although a few isolated 90s cannot be ruled out. Lows will generally be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. Although heavy rain with downpours and isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out on any particular day with this pattern, the best chance for this occurring will be on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... While the bulk of the SHRA/TSRA activity has cleared the local terminals, the front itself still remains just N of every local site except KDAY. Therefore, a few spotty SHRA will be possible through the first part of the TAF period for srn sites. Have added a PROB30 to account for this potential, although the coverage should become increasingly isolated toward/beyond 06z. However, there is a signal for a few spotty SHRA to linger through the night (perhaps migrating more E of KILN and S of KCMH/KLCK past 09z), so suppose that it cannot be ruled out at these sites through daybreak. The main item of interest through the TAF period is going to be the development and expansion of some MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs, which will be most widespread/persistent for nrn sites. This will especially be the case beyond 06z, with some low stratus and BR/FG favored to develop. Still some uncertainties regarding how low the VSBYs will go with the expanding stratus deck, but do think that MVFR/IFR VSBYs will develop in a fairly widespread fashion, particularly between 09z-12z. Some LIFR conditions could develop briefly. Conditions will improve rapidly after 12z, with the stratus expected to lift/SCT through the morning, with a FEW/SCT VFR Cu for the afternoon. A very spotty SHRA cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, but the lack of coverage precluded inclusion of even a PROB30 at this juncture. Light/VRB/calm winds through daybreak will go more out of the WNW at 6-8kts during the daytime. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day from Thursday through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...KC/Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC