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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 152034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
434 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VERY NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS BY AND LARGE DISSIPATED. BUT
MANY MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HEADING THROUGH THE NIGHT ON HOW THIS MAY EVOLVE. IT
DOES SEEM PROBABLE THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. SO HAVE KEPT A STRIPE OF LIKELY POPS
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AND HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EAST-WEST FRONT WILL START THE PERIOD STRETCHED ACROSS THE MIDST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ZONE OF
BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL FORCING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING. JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
MAY HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH. IN GENERAL GFS
MOS LOOKED REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TOO COOL OFF A
BIT MORE THURSDAY NIGHT. USE A MOS BLEND FOR THAT TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.  THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OFF AND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS TIME.  WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION.  THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  DUE TO
MODEL DISCREPANCIES DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND AT THIS POINT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCEMENT
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE PCPN MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT EVEN THOSE SEEM TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME WARM AIR ALOFT THAT IS
PROVIDING A CAP. AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH....WE MAY
EVENTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE SOME OF
THE INSTABILITY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THOUGH BETWEEN
THE MODELS AS TO EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND WILL TREND TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN
PCPN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE SOME POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL