Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281742 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PROVIDING WARM DRY WEATHER. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRATUS CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NRN KENTUCKY. EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT OR SO. MEANWHILE SOME AC ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT BACK IN INDIANA WILL TRY TO WORK EAST IN THE UPPER FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRICKY TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUNSHINE. TWEAKED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTN...BUT THEY ARE STILL IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE TRAVELING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO ENTER INDIANA. ECMWF HAS SHOWN THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WHILE THE LATEST GFS NOW IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT. THIS POINTS TO A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FACTOR WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE AND A PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...LOCATIONS WEST OF DAYTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH EASTERN SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM TEMPERATURE REGIME. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90. THIS COMPARES TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LARGE AREA OF CU DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN OH. SOME CIGS ARE DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE. LUCKILY IT SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NRN TAFS. EXPECTED SCT CU THRU THE AFTN FOR THE NRN BEFORE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. ACROSS NRN KY THE MORNING STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED TO CU. IT TOO IS ONLY PROVIDING SCATTERED CLOUDS TO CVG/LUK. OVERNIGHT THE SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND THE SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE SE BY MORNING. THIS IS TYPICALLY A GOOD WINDS DIRECTION FOR DENSE FOG AT KLUK. THE LACK OF FOG LAST NIGHT AT KLUK HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERNED...BUT DID TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO A MILE IN FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. BUILDING H5 RIDGE ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY. TOYED WITH MENTIONING SOME SCT CU IN THE SRN TAFS FRIDAY AFTN...BUT FELT IT WASNT WORTH ANOTHER GROUP AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...SITES

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