Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221034 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier and cooler conditions for the beginning of the week. Another system will approach the Ohio Valley at midweek, bringing chances of rain back into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As H5 low spins across upper Great Lakes today, a sfc high will bring dry conditions. Satellite loop is showing cirrus blow off working northeast across the region. Models are indicating that the cirrus will linger for much of the day, so upped cloud cover today to cover this unexpected cloud cover. Highs today will be around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure will linger at the sfc tonight keeping the region dry. Lows will drop to the lower to mid 50s. Tuesday into Tuesday night, upper level energy will push the H5 low down the Mississippi Valley. This digging will delay the eastward development of pcpn, keeping the region dry. Highs in Tuesday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, before cooling back to the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By Wednesday the center of the H5 low will be in the vicinity of Missouri, with a sfc low over the lower Ohio Valley. The sfc low will move eastward on Wednesday pushing an area of showers and possibly some embedded thunder across the region. 12Z GFS/ECMWF runs have, interestingly, trended faster with the progression of the upper low -- keeping rain chances around for Thursday, but leaving Friday mostly dry. Will compromise this with the previous forecast (and a desire to not go too fast with the departure of an upper low) by allowing PoPs to continue into Friday morning for the eastern half of the CWA. Though Thursday will remain similar in temperature to Wednesday, fairer weather conditions will allow for a notable increase in temperatures on Friday. Model spread is quite high for the weekend forecast, giving low confidence in the specifics. A very brief period of ridging is expected to move across the Ohio Valley on Friday, before a series of shortwaves in the pseudo-zonal flow begin to affect the region on Saturday and Sunday. Within the GEFS suite and from run-to-run of the operational ECMWF/GFS, there are insurmountable differences in wave amplitude/timing. For now, low PoPs will be maintained through the entire weekend, with slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions will be found over the region as high pressure builds behind an exiting cold front. Have general forecast of scattered cirrus with a westerly wind that goes variable as the high settles in the region this afternoon from the southwest. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday and Thursday. MVFR visibilities possible Wednesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR/Sites NEAR TERM...Sites SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos/Sites AVIATION...Franks

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