National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 261755
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...BRINGING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NRN OHIO
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED
S/WV. THIS DEFORMATION AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LIKELY/CAT
POPS ACRS OUR NRN AND WESTERN ZONES TO DECREASE THROUGH TIME. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE INDICATING SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH DEVELOPING CAA AS A WEAK 850 MB
TROUGH AXIS DROPS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL CARRY A 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM CURRENT READINGS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A 3 TO 4 DEGREE
RISE MAY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THIS CLEARING DEVELOPS AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE DROPPING OFF TOO. IN AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT...SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND THE FACT THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND JUST MENTION THE THREAT IN
THE HWO PRODUCT.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A LINGERING
SNOW PACK...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO READINGS LIKELY. RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY AT CVG/DAY/CMH. RECORDS FOR 2/28 ARE 1 AT CVG
(1934)...-3 AT DAY (1934)...AND 2 AT CMH (1934).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS
TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING
SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE
TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. READINGS MAY
WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAKENING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SOME FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CEILINGS GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO SCATTERED...MAINLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z.

ON FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. SCATTER STRATOCUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/JGL
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...PADGETT