Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KILN 010027 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 827 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CWA DO NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. CU FIELD IS WEAK AND NOT EXHIBITING ANY SIGNS OF DEEPENING OR STRENGTHENING. AS THE SUN ANGLE SHIFTS EVEN LOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE DAY...THESE SHOWERS AND CU WILL BOTH DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND LOWS WILL DROP TO SIMILAR VALUES AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 60 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A BIT MORE OF THE SAME IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE WEEKS END. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A KINK IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERMIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS AT A MINIMUM...SO SCATTERED GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY...RATHER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER. 31.00Z AND 31.00Z GEFS/NAEFS ANOMALIES SUGGEST LOW/MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS...AS WELL AS PWATS ALL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS PERIOD. THUS IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE VERY LOW STANDARD DEVIATIONS ON ECMWF/GEFS MOS DATA...AND DETERMINISTIC MOS TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SUMMERTIME NORMALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL/WESTCENTRAL OHIO TO MID AND UPPER 80S IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL SUMMERTIME WX FOR EARLY AUGUST. IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES...STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY. RECENT TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF IS FOR SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSION/QUICKNESS IN THE SHARP MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH WHATEVER WEAK FORCING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL TROUGHING IN A POSI-TILT FASHION FROM PA BACK INTO THE OZARKS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY SEPARATES FROM THE FLOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST. KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BUT THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL TO FOCUS ON FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. WITH SUCH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE TO THINK THAT IF ANYTHING OCCURS TO THE WEST /SOUTHWEST OHIO/SERN IND/FAR NRN KY IT IS GOING TO BE AWFULLY LIGHT/ISOLATED. SUN NIGHT/MON/MON NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND TROUGHING IN THE MIDLEVELS BECOMES FLATTER AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE SUNDAY WAVE. TUESDAY I AM PROBABLY A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STILL PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE/MINOR LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT MAY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS TO SAG FROM MI/IND INTO OUR NORTH TUES/TUES NIGHT. NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE CHANCES AND I MAY PULL THIS CHANCE ON NEXT ISSUANCE IF SIGNAL DOESN/T IMPROVE. A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE PUSH BY THURSDAY AS FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE. OUR BL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING BY THEN /MID UPPER 60S DWPTS/ VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION SO THIS IS WORTH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. OVERALL...SUMMER WX FINALLY RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH 80S BY DAY...60S BY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOME LIGHT -SHRA OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME SRN OH FROM NR KLUK EWD TO E OF KRZT...CHILLICOTHE OHIO. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER AN HOUR OR SO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. BKN AC AROUND KCVG/KLUK/KILN SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED WITH BY 2-3Z. SRN STREAM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PERSISTENT ERN U.S. TROF MIGHT BRING SOME CI TO THE SRN TAFS OVERNIGHT. WINDS VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE NORMAL FOG LOCATIONS OF KILN...KLUK...AND KLCK. TOOK KLUK DOWN TO IFR DUE TO THE RIVER VALLEY FOG. ON FRIDAY...AN H5 DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM WILL DIG TOWARD THE AREA WHILE THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST THROUGH SE OH. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE 2 SYSTEMS. EXPECT A BROKEN CU DECK TO DECK TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE AREA. FRIDAY COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER E OF LUK...S OF ILN. WILL LEAVE THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...SITES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.