Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 291801 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 201 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE NEAR TERM. A WEAK WARM FRONT LATER TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S TODAY. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME INSTABILITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMBINES WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. IN WAA PATTERN ON SATURDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. CLOUDS AND PCPN ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY SIMILARLY AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STARK DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER S/WV IS FORECAST TO SKIM BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHILE STRONGER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL BE IN A RELATIVE LULL...BUT WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON TO A 30 POP REGION WIDE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST TIME. S/WV ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS SHOULD NUDGE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF S/WV COMING OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO EITHER THE NRN PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECMWF IS MORE NORTH AND MUTED WITH THIS ENERGY. THIS SOLUTION HANGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES IT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE AGAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE S/WV ENERGY WHICH RESULTS IN A COLD FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS ATTM WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUCH BIG DIFFERENCES...ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WITH LATER FORECASTS IN HOPES THE MODELS COME MORE INTO AGREEMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIMITED PRECIPITATION MENTION TO A VCSH AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEREFORE KEPT KCMH AND KLCK DRY. SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KLUK HOWEVER HAVE THIS FOG ENDING BY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE VCTS MENTION IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WINDS PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY AND THEREFORE HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES EXPECT KLUK. OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...NOVAK

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