Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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137 FXUS61 KILN 121801 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 101 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING. ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN CENTRAL OHIO. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF INCH OR LESS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE CHALLENGING. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HICKMAN

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