Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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495 FXUS61 KILN 231732 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 132 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered just east of the region today, providing dry conditions. A warm front will move into the area on Wednesday, along with an increase in moisture. This will lead to increasing chances for showers and storms by Thursday, before another weak front moves into the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Few to scattered cumulus will continue through the afternoon. Forecast temperatures still look on track. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As high pressure moves east of the area this evening, attention will turn to an approaching warm front, which is forecast to move in from the southwest. 00Z models have been a little more aggressive with the moisture and convergence on Wednesday morning, but not enough to suggest a major change in the forecast is required. PoPs were sped up slightly, allowing for some sprinkles / light showers to move into the region by sunrise (perhaps with an outside chance for some elevated convection). With some instability building in on Wednesday, there will be a chance for showers and storms across the forecast area by afternoon, though slightly more likely in the northern and northwestern sections of the CWA. The core of greatest theta-e advection will shift into the ILN forecast area on Thursday, bringing increasing atmospheric moisture and instability. Deep-layer wind flow will also be on the increase -- the result of an increased gradient between the upper high over the southeastern states and an upper trough moving into the northern Great Lakes. This put some parameters in place for convection on Thursday (and perhaps even some strong storms) but confidence in how the scenario will actually develop remains low. Surface features are fairly weak, and there will undoubtedly be some insolation questions, with clouds and precipitation around during the start of the day. It still looks like the northern half of the CWA will be most likely to be affected by storms on Thursday, but confidence is not high enough to include any threats in the HWO this far out. As the dampening upper level wave moves east into Quebec, a very weak surface front will make some progress into the ILN forecast area on Friday, though it may never clear through the area before stalling (or washing out). A question more of forcing rather than moisture, there does not appear to be any reason to raise PoPs above the 20-percent chances currently in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The front will push south of our area through the day on Friday and continue to weaken, so will just linger a slight chance of thunderstorms across mainly our far southern areas into the day on Friday. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler, generally in the low to mid 80s. Mid level ridging will then build slowly north toward the Ohio valley through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions and a gradual warmup through Sunday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Few to scattered cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Clouds will increase after 06z as a mid level disturbance moves across the area. This will bring VFR ceilings. Cannot rule out some sprinkles or a passing shower. But do not expect any precipitation at that time to have an impact on visibility. After the disturbance passes east...VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.