Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 221038 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 638 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will set up over the Great Lakes and remain stagnant into early next week. Weather conditions are expected to be generally dry, with temperatures above normal through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak pressure gradient remains across the area with some light shower formation across the southwest. Another warm and humid day looks likely this afternoon as mid-level ridging continues to amplify over the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures will be similar today compared to yesterday (~ 17 degrees C) with low level thicknesses around 1415 m. Given the almost identical pattern have raised high temperatures close to or at 90 degrees for most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... During the day Saturday mid-level ridging will center over Michigan with 850 mb temperatures holding around 18 degrees C. 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses do rise to around 1420 m while PWATs slowly tick down towards 1.00". Given the lower PWATs, forecast soundings don`t show much in the way of daytime CU and therefore am expecting mostly clear skies. Another day of high temperatures near 90 degrees looks likely Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad upper level high centered over the Great Lakes on Sunday will gradually break down and shift slowly southeast through the first part of the upcoming work week. With a relatively dry airmass in place, this will lead to a continuation of mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will also remain well above normal through at least Tuesday with high temperatures each day in the mid to upper 80s. Some differences remain between the GFS and the ECMWF as to the timing and strength of short wave energy moving into the region through mid week, with the ECMWF still faster and a little stronger than the GFS. This will eventually lead to an increasing chance of pcpn Wednesday into Thursday along with a return to more normal temperatures by the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered just west of the area this morning allowing for a very weak pressure gradient across the area. Winds have decoupled at all TAF sites with some fog being reported at KLUK. During the day today some more fair weather cu will be possible with surface high pressure located to the northeast of the area. The pressure gradient will remain weak keeping winds mostly light. Another round of fog will be possible at KLUK Saturday morning but shouldn`t be as bad as compared to this morning. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Haines

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