Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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233 FXUS61 KILN 301101 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 701 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will remain in place over the Ohio Valley today, and then begin lifting north through the Great Lakes this weekend. Under the influence of this upper low expect cool and occasionally rainy conditions. Chances for rain will begin to diminish on Saturday, as the low gradually begins to move to the northeast. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday, with surface high pressure building in from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Upper level low evident on water vapor imagery centered over central Kentucky this morning. Model solns generally similar with this upper low drifting a little north into se Indiana by evening. As this movement occurs best lift/moisture will pivot north into ILN/s northern counties by late afternoon. Marginal instability, especially around the periphery of this low will allow for an occasional rumble of thunder. Cloudy skies and occasional rain showers will keep temperatures around 5 degrees below normal today. Expect highs in the mid and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The large upper level low will drift north into central Indiana overnight. Best lift to remain around the periphery of this low but can not rule out some scattered rain showers. Will continue pops in the chance category tonight. Lows will be close to normal, generally in the lower 50s. On Saturday the upper level low will drift north toward the Indiana/ Michigan border. Weak forcing in the form of low level convergence rotates around this low into ILN/s fa during the day. Therefore, will continue likely pops over the western counties. Temperatures will continue to be cool with highs ranging from upper 60s nw under the low to the lower/middle 70s southeast. Will diminish rain chances Saturday night as the low drifts into se lower Michigan. Again, lows look close to normal in the lower 50s. As the lower drifts ene into srn Ontario Sunday expect to see more in the way of sunshine. Still can not rule out a rain shower with the best chance across the northeast counties. Will limit pops to slight chance. Expect highs on Sunday to range from near 70 north to the lower/middle 70s south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The 12Z ECMWF and the 12Z CMC are now maintaining a closed upper low through a good part of next week as it shifts off to the east, with the 12Z CMC slower pushing it east and even retrograding it some back across Pennsylvania through mid week. Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS continues it trend to weaken the upper low as it moves northeast while building some ridging across our area through the rest of the long term period. Likely as a result, there is also quite a bit of variability on the track of Matthew with it possibly riding up off the east coast through mid week. This all spells out some uncertainty in our sensible weather as we progress through the upcoming week. At this point will discount the CMC and lean toward more of a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, which would keep us mainly dry through mid week along with a gradual warming trend each day. The ECMWF is faster than the GFS with a possible front moving in through late week. Will again go with a blend and allow for some lower chance pops to work in from the west through the day on Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Slow moving low pressure in the upper atmosphere coupled with waves of surface low pressure and persistent moisture will continue to produce less than ideal flight conditions. Showers and thunderstorms have developed early this morning in a band of lift and convergence circulating around the upper low. Ceilings as low as LIFR are accompanying the some of the showers and thunderstorms. Convection will likely continue and perhaps expand in coverage today as instability increases a bit in limited daytime heating under a cold pool aloft. As the low pressure system begins to travel slowly northward, improvement to MVFR and then VFR is expected by the end of the forecast period as somewhat drier air moves in from the south. However, BR may reduce visibilities again at ILN and LUK late in the forecast period. Winds will stay light in the weak surface pressure gradient, with direction shifting from northeast to southeast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with showers through Saturday. IFR ceilings possible Sunday morning.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Coniglio

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