Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 160607 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 207 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and cooler air will work into the area overnight into the Saturday as high pressure settles to the southwest in the wake of a cold front. A secondary cold front will bring the potential for a few showers Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures and dry conditions for Sunday. Cold temperatures and a chance of snow showers will accompany a disturbance on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Split mid and upper level flow with confluent region working into the area tonight. Slow moving surface cold front has slipped south of ILN/s FA. Surface ridge of high pressure to build southeast across the region overnight with drier air advecting into the Ohio Valley. Low clouds that lingered behind the front have all but exited to the southeast, leaving most locations under cirrus resulting in mostly clear skies. Cooler temperatures are forecast, with lows ranging from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast. North winds around 10 mph will back northwest this evening becoming light and then further backing to the southwest by morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Mid and upper level low to settle south-southeast into the Northern Great Lakes Saturday and to Western Quebec by Sunday morning. Saturday starts out mostly sunny with an increase in clouds later in the afternoon. Southwest flow to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures to range form the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Secondary cold front to drop southeast thru the area Saturday evening. Moisture is limited with this front and therefore have limited mention of rain showers to chance pops with the highest pops over Central Ohio. Any rainfall looks to be less than a tenth of an inch. Clouds will decrease from the northwest in the wake of the front late Saturday night. Lows to range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Pattern change to take place in split flow regime mid and upper level low to settle south into the Northern Great Lakes and then New England this weekend. Hang back trof to then drop south into the Ohio Valley early this week. In the wake of a surface cold front drier and cooler conditions return Sunday under weak ridging. Highs on Sunday expected to range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast with lows by Monday morning from 25 to 30. As hang back trof drops into the area on Monday a chance of snow showers possibly mixed with rain showers will be observed during the afternoon into the evening. Cool highs to range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows by Tuesday morning in the mid and upper 20s. Some very light snow accumulation possible on grassy areas. Northwest flow aloft with a disturbance dropping thru the Great Lakes Tuesday may lead to additional chance for a rain or snow shower - mainly over the northeast counties. Highs on Tuesday to range from 45 to 50 with lows Wednesday morning 30 to 35. High pressure to build across the area offering dry weather at mid week. As the high slides off to the east a low level southerly flow will develop with a warming trend thru the end of the week. Highs generally from 45 to 55 Wednesday to warm into the 50s and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. Moisture will increase with a chance for rain returning later Thursday and increasing Friday as the next frontal system moves into the region.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through sunrise, a surface ridge axis will shift southeast across our region. Winds will back from a light west/northwest direction to a light southwest direction. River fog will occur in the river valleys along and south of the Ohio River. KLUK will have VLIFR conditions through 12Z. Otherwise, mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast. For today, river fog will lift between 12Z and 14Z. The surface ridge axis will then quickly depart to our southeast. Meanwhile, a mid level trough will dig southeast into the western and central Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this mid level feature will approach our northwest forecast area by 00Z Sunday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten as the front approaches, and with diurnal mixing, gusty southwest winds will develop. Sustained winds will range from around 10 knots along and south of the Ohio River to 15 to 20 knots across west central Ohio. Wind gusts will range from around 20 knots along and south of the Ohio River with gusts to around 35 knots across west central Ohio. Mainly mid and and high level clouds will increase in coverage later in the day. For tonight, as the mid level trough continues to dig east into the eastern Great Lakes, the cold front will push southeast across our region. Best low level moisture and convergence are expected across central Ohio where a brief period of light showers may occur. Elsewhere, there will be a chance for a spotty light shower. Conditions should remain mainly VFR. Sustained winds 10 to 15 knots will veer to the northwest behind the front. Gusts will range between 15 and 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Monday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Coniglio/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Hickman

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