Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 082131 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 431 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH MIDWEEK AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PERMIT A MIX OF SNOW AND SOME RAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY WHERE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT IS STILL IN PLAY. WESTERN 2/3 OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE CORES OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR SO BUT THE OVERALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL. H5 S/W ROTATING EWD THROUGH NRN KY AROUND UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN NW OH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND MORE OF THEM FROM CINCINNATI TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TOWARDS PORTSMOUTH. HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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OVERALL FORECAST HAD ME LOWER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION. AFTER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAXIMA SE OF CINCY METRO AREA...THE NW CWA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND THE VORT MAXIMA THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST WITH IT DURING THE MORNING. THE REST OF CWA APPEARS TO BE IN NVA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW AND THE PV ANOMALIES THAT ARE APPARENT IN THE H5 FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING. USED SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY FOR THE SNOW FORECAST AS SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND BUT BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME HIT AND MISS OCCURRING FOR THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE INCH OR BETTER THAT ILN GOT THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY MELTED/SUBLIMATED AND SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE EXAGGERATED TO REFLECT WHAT FALLS VERSUS WHAT LINGERS AS A SNOW PACK WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...MAXIMIZING AROUND WAPAKONETA EARLY AND SHIFTING TO NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY LATE. HAVE INCREASED THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA BUT STILL HAVE THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH THE REMAINDER OF CWA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LOW CHANCE/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SW-NE STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND ENDING FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLOW DROP THIS EVENING AND SEE REINFORCING COLD AIR HAMPER DAYTIME RECOVERIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE 5 DEG OFF OF THE MORNING LOWS...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO MAKE 20 IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GO EVEN LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN STARTING THE PERIOD OUT WITH A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER 20S AND WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO 5-15 DEGREES. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE ERN U.S. H5 TROF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGING A GOOD SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PCPN SOUTH OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT...WAITING UNTIL AFTER FROPA TO CREATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEM HEMISPHIC LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECWMF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY. DIDNT GO TOO HIGH WITH THE POPS YET. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY...ALL MODELS DROP MORE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ENUF TO CUT THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF H5 ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERENT ON THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PCPN. COVERED THE SYSTEM WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT WARM INTO THE 20S. OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT THEM TO LOWER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ046- 055-056-063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ066- 073>075-080.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANKS NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM...FRANKS LONG TERM...SITES AVIATION...NOVAK

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