Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 160607
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
207 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and cooler air will work into the area overnight into the
Saturday as high pressure settles to the southwest in the wake
of a cold front. A secondary cold front will bring the potential
for a few showers Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures
and dry conditions for Sunday. Cold temperatures and a chance of
snow showers will accompany a disturbance on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Split mid and upper level flow with confluent region working
into the area tonight. Slow moving surface cold front has
slipped south of ILN/s FA. Surface ridge of high pressure to
build southeast across the region overnight with drier air
advecting into the Ohio Valley.
Low clouds that lingered behind the front have all but exited
to the southeast, leaving most locations under cirrus resulting
in mostly clear skies.
Cooler temperatures are forecast, with lows ranging from the
lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
North winds around 10 mph will back northwest this evening
becoming light and then further backing to the southwest by
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper level low to settle south-southeast into the
Northern Great Lakes Saturday and to Western Quebec by Sunday
morning. Saturday starts out mostly sunny with an increase in
clouds later in the afternoon. Southwest flow to increase to 10
to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. High
temperatures to range form the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
Secondary cold front to drop southeast thru the area Saturday
evening. Moisture is limited with this front and therefore have
limited mention of rain showers to chance pops with the highest
pops over Central Ohio. Any rainfall looks to be less than a
tenth of an inch. Clouds will decrease from the northwest in the
wake of the front late Saturday night. Lows to range from the
mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Pattern change to take place in split flow regime mid and upper
level low to settle south into the Northern Great Lakes and
then New England this weekend. Hang back trof to then drop south
into the Ohio Valley early this week.
In the wake of a surface cold front drier and cooler conditions
return Sunday under weak ridging. Highs on Sunday expected to
range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast with
lows by Monday morning from 25 to 30.
As hang back trof drops into the area on Monday a chance of
snow showers possibly mixed with rain showers will be observed
during the afternoon into the evening. Cool highs to range from
the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows by Tuesday morning in the
mid and upper 20s. Some very light snow accumulation possible
on grassy areas.
Northwest flow aloft with a disturbance dropping thru the Great
Lakes Tuesday may lead to additional chance for a rain or snow
shower - mainly over the northeast counties. Highs on Tuesday to
range from 45 to 50 with lows Wednesday morning 30 to 35.
High pressure to build across the area offering dry weather at
mid week. As the high slides off to the east a low level
southerly flow will develop with a warming trend thru the end of
the week. Highs generally from 45 to 55 Wednesday to warm into
the 50s and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. Moisture will
increase with a chance for rain returning later Thursday and
increasing Friday as the next frontal system moves into the
region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through sunrise, a surface ridge axis will shift southeast
across our region. Winds will back from a light west/northwest
direction to a light southwest direction. River fog will occur
in the river valleys along and south of the Ohio River. KLUK
will have VLIFR conditions through 12Z. Otherwise, mainly clear
skies and VFR conditions are forecast.
For today, river fog will lift between 12Z and 14Z. The surface
ridge axis will then quickly depart to our southeast.
Meanwhile, a mid level trough will dig southeast into the
western and central Great Lakes. A cold front associated with
this mid level feature will approach our northwest forecast area
by 00Z Sunday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten as
the front approaches, and with diurnal mixing, gusty southwest
winds will develop. Sustained winds will range from around 10
knots along and south of the Ohio River to 15 to 20 knots across
west central Ohio. Wind gusts will range from around 20 knots
along and south of the Ohio River with gusts to around 35 knots
across west central Ohio. Mainly mid and and high level clouds
will increase in coverage later in the day.
For tonight, as the mid level trough continues to dig east into
the eastern Great Lakes, the cold front will push southeast
across our region. Best low level moisture and convergence are
expected across central Ohio where a brief period of light
showers may occur. Elsewhere, there will be a chance for a
spotty light shower. Conditions should remain mainly VFR.
Sustained winds 10 to 15 knots will veer to the northwest behind
the front. Gusts will range between 15 and 25 knots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hickman