Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 261631 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1131 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNDER SCT CIRRUS. GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD BASED ON ADVECTING 5-6C PLUME ON 925MB SURFACE. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TOWARD 20KTS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. H5 TROF TONIGHT...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE SFC LOW OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER PUSHING A SMALLER AREA OF QPF QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A BETTER SHOT OF PCPN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS TO LINGER PCPN A LITTLE LONGER...SO THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. HELD ONTO PCPN CHANCE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SE HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VARIABLE VSBYS AT KLUK IN RIVER VLY FOG WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS FLOW PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. CI WILL OVERTOP THE REGION TODAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN MOISTURE SO THAT SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...MORESO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...SHOBE2 AVIATION...FRANKS

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