Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 250630 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 230 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...SETTLING NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI THIS EVENING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. AN INITIAL WAVE OF PCPN CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED INSTABILITIES...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS FORCING BECOMES WEAK. WE SHOULD SEE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. WITH HEATING...HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM AS THEY SHOW THE BEST SOLUTION FOR AN UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY WITH THE LOW...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE LACKING A BIT. SPC HAS PLACED OUR SRN CWFA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (5 PERCENT) AND THAT IS PROBABLY OK AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE HWO...BUT WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST IF THE THREAT INCREASES AND/OR DECREASES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING 1 TO 1.50 INCHES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NON DIURNAL GIVEN THE LOW RIPPLING RIGHT THROUGH OUR AREA AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM FOR TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXIT TO THE EAST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PCPN AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THEN...WITH A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH STRONG AND CAA PUSHING INTO THE REGION... THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FRIDAY MORNING A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 34 DEGREES F AND AND 850 TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -14 DEGREES C. SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS OHIO CLOUDS WILL ERODE. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY COLD. 850 TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -15 DEGREES C. BRINGING THIS TEMPERATURE DOWN DRY ADIABATICALLY PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES F. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX VALUES. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST TAKING THE COLDEST AIR WITH IT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE WITH THE GFS STRENGTHENING THE SHORTWAVE AND DIVING IT SOUTH. THE EURO KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE NORTH. EITHER WAY THE SHORTWAVE IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NE THRU THE TAR SITES ATTM. THIS PCPN IS VERY LIGHT AND CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THIS AXIS PCPN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL S/W LIFTS NE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. MARGINAL INSTBY WEAKENS AS IT PIVOTS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE HAVE OMITTED THE MENTION. SFC LOW LIFTS QUICKLY NE PULLING A CDFNT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAFS THIS MORNING ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS PCPN IN THE 30 HOUR CVG TAF SITE. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL VEER TO THE SW WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AND WILL GUST AS HIGHS AS 28 KTS TODAY. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...AR

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