Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 231752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016
High pressure will remain across the region through today. A weak
cold front will push south into the area tonight. This front will
then move slowly southwest through the remainder of the area
Saturday into Saturday night. The front will begin to move back to
the northeast as a warm front late in the day on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
We will see some occasional high and mid level clouds across the
area today, but for the most part expect mostly sunny skies
through the afternoon as high pressure remains in place.
Temperatures will once again push up into the upper 80s to
possibly around 90 degrees for highs today.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale mid level trough will dig southeast into southeast
Canada/New England tonight through Saturday night. Meanwhile, a
mid level ridge will sharpen/push northward into south central
Canada. This pattern will allow aforementioned weak cold front to
slowly work its way south and southwest tonight into Saturday
night. Forcing will remain weak with this boundary, and most
models, including high resolution models, suggest that any chance
of a shower or storm will remain around 10 percent or less, so
have gone with a dry forecast through this period. Clouds will
increase from the north tonight into Saturday morning, then we
should see a decreasing trend of clouds Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. Clouds, along with some post frontal CAA, will
cool northern areas into the upper 70s for highs on Saturday,
while locations along and south of the Ohio River will still make
it up into the upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will range from the
mid 50s far north/northeast to the mid 60s far southwest.
On Sunday, mid level ridge to our west will begin to move east in
response to a large scale mid level trough moving east into the
northern and central Plains. We should see partly to mostly sunny
skies with highs ranging from near 80 north to the upper 80s far
For Sunday night into Monday, there remains variability among the
operational models in terms of timing and digging of mid level
trough as it pushes east toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. This in turn yields different strength and timing
solutions for an associated cold front to move through the region.
Per WPC, the GFS offers a middle of the road solution, so have
leaned/weighed the forecast toward this solution. Have, however,
kept pops in the chance category due to strength uncertainty. This
forecast period will indicate an increase in clouds Sunday night
along with a chance of showers/storms west late, moving west to
east through the region on Monday. Highs on Monday will be a bit
tricky given clouds and where/how fast front moves through. A
blend yields highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the mid
It looks we may end up in the dry slot in the wake of departing
front Monday night, so have the threat of pcpn coming to an end
with skies becoming partly cloudy. Drier and cooler air will move
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slower, deeper mid level trough solution moving across the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley early to mid week was still used for the
extended forecast per WPC suggestion. This will bring cooler
weather along with a low chance of precipitation during this
period. Drier weather with a warming trend should return by the
end of the week as the mid level trough moves away, allowing mid
level ridging to build back into the region.
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Few to Sct cu have developed this afternoon across the region and
these will dissipate as we head toward sunset. Otherwise, expect
to see some mid and high level clouds continue to work south
across the area as we head into tonight. Meanwhile, a weakening
cold front will push south across our area tonight and wash out
along the Ohio River late tonight into Saturday morning. Behind
the front, increasing low level moisture and weak CAA will likely
lead to some lower cloud and br development. Some of the guidance
is hitting this fairly hard, bringing some ifr cigs and vsbys
down as far south as the Ohio River. For now will hedge a little
and just bring some MVFR cigs/vsbys down across the northern TAF
sites late tonight into Saturday morning. These lower clouds will
lift into VFR toward the end of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
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