Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 190142 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front over Indiana and Ohio will further weaken and wash out over the area, with a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A disturbance shifting through later tonight and Tuesday will continue the chance of showers and storms, before a drying trend takes over for the middle and end of the upcoming work week. Temperatures will remain above to well above normal for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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An axis of higher ML capes in the 500-1000 J/KG range had been extending across central Indiana into far western Ohio along the Interstate 70 corridor. This has helped sustain a line of showers and thunderstorms over the past couple of hours across parts of east central Indiana. The cape values have begun to drop off though and it does appear that we are seeing a weakening trend in the shower activity. Would expect this trend to continue through the rest of the evening hours as we continue to lose the surface based instabilities. However, short wave energy approaching from the west overnight tonight will lead to an increasing chance of showers once again across the west later tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave trough will move across the area Tuesday morning, with a rather well defined 700-500mb trough axis/convergence zone. As this feature interacts with the residual PWAT ribbon from decaying frontal zone from this afternoon, should see showers and a few storms increase in the morning into the early afternoon especially across eastern indiana/western Ohio with best focus across the northern half of the ILN forecast area. Should see a diminishing trend in the activity through the afternoon as the shortwave weakens as the large scale ridge works against the smaller wavelength feature. Once a little sun breaks out later in the afternoon, expect another mild afternoon with highs a few degrees either side of 80F. Skies will continue to clear slowly on Tuesday night with lows in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Amplified flow pattern will dominate the pattern through the extended with with strong ridging over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a deepening trough digging into the west and Jose and Maria activity off the east coast. For Wednesday, a weak short wave will work slowly into the area undercutting the mean ridge. The greatest instability and weak forcing will be along the fringe of the ridge mainly along the western and southwestern forecast area. As the ridge continues to strengthen during the latter part of the week, with H8 temperatures in the 16-17C range for late week mid 80 high temperatures will work into the area. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated to scattered shower activity across western portions of our area has been slowly weakening early this evening. Expect this overall trend to continue in the short term as much of this is diurnally enhanced. However, short wave energy will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley tonight and push across the mid Ohio Valley through the day on Tuesday. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers later tonight and then continuing into the day on Tuesday. A few embedded thunderstorms will will also be possible, primarily later Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Some areas of fog will also be possible later tonight into early Tuesday morning but this will be dependent on the amount of cloudiness. With a fair amount of clouds expected overnight, will limit the mention of MVFR to IFR fog to KLUK. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...JGL

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