Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 240942 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 442 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. STILL SEEING SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON A COUPLE OF THE MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION COULD IN THE WEST...WITH A WEAKENING TREND AS IT REACHES THE ERN COUNTIES. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH FROPA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL WILL GET PULLED DOWN IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE FROPA. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE FALLING. A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN. LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THICKNESSES FALL. THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. BY TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM AFFECTS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER S/W IS DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE RANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOCUS SHIFTS TO WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW DROPPING SE FROM THE UPPER MS VLY WED AFTN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM DIGS AND TIMING. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKING WEAK SFC WAVE FROM CENTRAL IL LATE WED AFTN THRU THE TRI-STATE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL BRING SNOW IN WED EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACRS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTN. WAA PCPN TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE BULK OF PCPN STAYING TO OUR NORTH. WILL KEEP AREA DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE. WAA PCPN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPING INTO THE FCST REGARDING PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE RAIN COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW SAT NIGHT. GFS SOLN APPEARS TOO QUICK WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL TREND SOLN CLOSER TO SLOWER ECMWF WITH FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY MONDAY. IN WAA SECTOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A NOTED SOUTHWEST SHIFT IN WINDS WITH INCREASED GUSTS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE GRADIENT WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE ENERGETIC NATURE OF THE LOW WILL MEAN 30-40KT GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE LOW GETS FURTHER AWAY BY THIS TIME...AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BREAK UP BY THEN. NRN TAF SITES AT KDAY AND KCMH/LCK WILL LIKELY SEE THE MVFR CIGS LAST THROUGH 6Z BEFORE BREAKING UP BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS

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