Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 052117 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 417 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... OUR REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY TWO FEATURES OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED S/WV WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. THE CIRRUS WILL BE THIN FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY DEEP...AND THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A VARIED MIX OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S REGION WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VLY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DRY DAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE OHIO VALLEY IN LARGE TROUGH WITH AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL SEE FRONT PUSH ACROSS AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXTENT OF PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNT BUT GENERALLY LIGHT QPF SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WITH TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. COLDER AIR ARRIVES MORE IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES BRINGING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT MINOR ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE THE RULE. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FINALLY GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY. SOME INDICATION OF A DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN FOR NOW WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE RISE OR STEADY FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS AROUND 00Z IN THE W AS H8 MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF/FNT PUSHING ACROSS THE TAF TONIGHT. THE H8 MOISTURE PUSHES E OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06-0Z. SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A DIGGING H5 S/W. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...PADGETT AVIATION...SITES

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