Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011020 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 520 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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STEADY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. CORRELATION COEFFICIENT SHOW MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM ABOUT FRANKLIN COUNTY INDIANA TO FAIRFIELD COUNTY OHIO AND POINTS SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WITH A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET. FURTHER NORTH IT HAS BEEN ALL SNOW. ECHOES SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT TOWARDS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMPLETELY COMES TO AN END. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS HAVE BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW...GENERALLY NORTH OF DAYTON. THIS PUSHES THOSE LOCATIONS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE DAYTON TO COLUMBUS CORRIDOR WILL GET MOSTLY SNOW BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING OF FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN. SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THERE. SOUTH OF THAT AREA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ALSO AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM A WINTRY MIX TO PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY. AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE BACK THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION END ENTIRELY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE HELD BACK BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HAVE BLENDED COOLER MOS WITH MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING FROM THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOW MELT AND ADD TO RUNOFF. SO THERE REMAINS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE OF HAVING PRECIPITATION SPREAD BACK WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ENDED UP USING A MOS BLEND FOR TUESDAY TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TIME WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED GUIDANCE WAS USED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT AT THIS POINT THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH IT.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT KCVG AND KLUK. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DURING THIS TIME SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KDAY. KDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM THE GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ054>056-060>062. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>053. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ077-078. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ063>065-070>072-074. KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>093. IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-059. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ073>075-080. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK

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