Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 281923 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 323 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CENTRAL OHIO IS IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IN WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE TRI- STATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY IS NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW YORK AND PULLING NORTHEAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS. THE SHORTWAVE HAS CURRENTLY SPEED UP A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS NOW HAVE THE SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA QUICKER. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STORY FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING THE RAIN INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BY 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS COMING FROM A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 0.6" TO 0.8" AND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO NEAR 1.4" BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON (PER GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS). LIFT TOMORROW WILL COME FROM A BALL OF POSITIVE VORTICITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IN GENERAL MOST MODELS KEEP THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TOMORROW WITH CAPE VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG. HIGHER CAPE VALUE ARE FORECASTED TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH LOWER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTH. SFC DELTA THETA E VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND -20. SFC TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. GIVEN THE MENTIONED ABOVE THINK BEST COVERAGE WILL BE TOWARDS THE NORTH TOMORROW CLOSER TOWARDS THE FRONTAL ZONE (WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH) WHILE COVERAGE REMAINS MORE CELLULAR FURTHER SOUTH. ALSO TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SFC DELTA THETA E VALUES SPC HAS PUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WEAK TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY/COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA. BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP LIKELY WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUTSIDE OF THE CWA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DIURNAL CYCLE. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SUPPORT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS ANY SHORTWAVE OR MCS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM THAT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA. TROUGHY PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL /ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE/. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC WITH MINIMA CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND MAXIMA AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PAYS A BRIEF VISIT. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF CUMULUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST...WITH CIRRUS OVERSPREADING TAF SITES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN INCREASING MOISTURE,..INSTABILITY AND FORCING. KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW THOUGH FURTHER ANALYSIS MAY SHOW THAT MVFR IS REQUIRED DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS MORE PREVALENT THAN EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT UNDER THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OF HIGH PRESSURE WHILE SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AROUND OF THE LOW. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCCASION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...CONIGLIO

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