Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 011756
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great
Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. This flow
will bring cool and cloudy conditions through Friday. High
pressure will build in early in the weekend. An upper level
disturbance may bring a chance for rain or snow on Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A widespread SC field is in place across the Great Lakes region
this morning. Weakly cyclonic low level flow will become more
neutral through the day with even some very weak WAA developing
across southwest portions of our area this afternoon. This should
allow for some gradual erosion of the southern edge of the cloud
deck so we could see at least some partial clearing working into
far southern portions of our area this afternoon. For the most
part though, expect mainly cloudy skies elsewhere across our area
today. This should help keep temps from recovery too much today
with highs ranging from the upper 30 northwest to the mid 40s in
the far south.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the
period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper
flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist
through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion,
which should result in a primarily overcast period. High
temperatures will be slightly below normal with low temperatures
around seasonal normals. As high pressure starts to build in
Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow
temperatures to fall into the 20s.
The upper level disturbance passing through the Great Lakes on
Saturday night will be battling the drier air at the surface
already in place from the high pressure system. Models are
continuing to push back the occurrence of precipitation with this
system, but there still remains an elevated chance for some rain
and snow on Sunday morning to change over to rain relatively
quickly. Have trended back on the rain chances later in the day on
Sunday given the split from a northern upper level shortwave that
continues to weaken with successive model runs, and the southern
heavy rain that will remain well south of the Ohio Valley. The
Gulf moisture will not have a transportation mechanism to reach
the region on Sunday given the still relatively entrenched surface
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night.
A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system
begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air
with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect
rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night.
Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and
with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until
there is greater continuity and forecast confidence.
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fairly expansive sc deck remains in place across the Great Lakes region
this afternoon. However, a few breaks are opening up back to our
west where the low level flow has begun to back just a bit. Some
of this will likely work its way east across KCVG/KLUK later this
afternoon and into this evening so they may go scattered from
time. Otherwise, it looks like enough low level moisture should
hang around tonight into Friday to generally keep the SC in place
across the area. The models are on the edge once again of low VFR
and possibly some MVFR cigs. The best chance for any MVFR cigs
would likely be at the northern TAF sites later tonight into
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night