Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
346 FXUS61 KILN 270551 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system pushing across across northern Ohio will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure and dry weather to return for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Not many changes to current forecast and have only made slight timing adjustments to PoPs. Overall trend of the showers weakening as they move east has continued with the latest high res models (time lagged HRRR, RAP, NMM, and ARW). This makes sense given the slow progression and weakening of the shortwave. Surface low pressure will then slide north and east of the area with a surface cold front pushing through the area Thursday morning. New zones already out. Prev Discussion-> The best isentropic lift has lifted north of the area, with the warm frontal boundary currently lifting north through the forecast area. The prefrontal cold front precipitation over NW Indiana pushing east more slowly than previously forecast and generally a bit slower than mesoscale models. Have generally kept with the more likely precipitation in the far north closer to the shortwave itself, with an expectation that the trailing precipitation in the south will meet with lesser instability over the area as it pushes through after 04-06z. Band should remain narrowly focused, with some embedded thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... With the frontal system exiting the area during the day on Thursday, lingering showers will mainly affect eastern half of forecast area, through slight chances to in the west lingering through about 18z. Have increased cloud cover behind the frontal system, as forecast model soundings do linger a shallow band of low level moisture. High pressure to push in Thursday night with partial clearing. While area will be under cold air advection, lingering clouds will still keep relatively mild overnight lows. The CAA will be short lived as return flow ahead of the next approaching system on Friday will bring a return to upper 60 highs in the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Winds will pick up during the day on Saturday in advance of a frontal boundary. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible during the day. These winds will bring warmer air into the region. Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday. Precipitation will hold off for much of the day with showers moving into northern portions of the forecast area late in the day on Saturday. The cold front will work through Saturday evening into Saturday night before stalling out near the Ohio River. The front will remain in the vicinity on Sunday keeping precipitation chances across the region. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening. There are some model differences for the Saturday night through Sunday night timeframe. At this time the ECMWF appears to be more of the outlier, however due to the typical strong performance of the ECMWF did not completely discount this solution. High pressure will work into the area late Sunday night. Southerly flow returns for Monday and Tuesday with continued above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Area of pre-frontal showers continues to work through the middle of the tafs at the beginning of the period. So far I have not seen any MVFR conditions in this area, so adjusted the cigs and vsbys to VFR ahead of the front. Expect there to be scattered SHRA until fropa. Speaking of fropa, models are in good agreement with it reaching the tafs around 12-13Z. Latest observations re showing a band of IFR cigs just behind the front. Added a mention if IFR cigs to all tafs, but only went with tempo IFR at CVG/LUK. Winds will pick up and turn to the west behind the front as caa beginning to affect the region. After the period of IFR cigs, they should lift to MVFR and stay there for the rest of the day. It doesn`t look like the MVFR cigs will begin to break up until after 00Z as surface high pressure will slowly builds in overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR/Haines NEAR TERM...JDR/Haines SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.