Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KILN 270551
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A low pressure system pushing across across northern Ohio will
bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm tonight into Thursday
morning. High pressure and dry weather to return for Thursday
night and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Not many changes to current forecast and have only made slight
timing adjustments to PoPs. Overall trend of the showers
weakening as they move east has continued with the latest high res
models (time lagged HRRR, RAP, NMM, and ARW). This makes sense
given the slow progression and weakening of the shortwave. Surface
low pressure will then slide north and east of the area with a
surface cold front pushing through the area Thursday morning. New
zones already out.
The best isentropic lift has lifted north of the area, with the
warm frontal boundary currently lifting north through the forecast
area. The prefrontal cold front precipitation over NW Indiana
pushing east more slowly than previously forecast and generally a
bit slower than mesoscale models. Have generally kept with the
more likely precipitation in the far north closer to the shortwave
itself, with an expectation that the trailing precipitation in the
south will meet with lesser instability over the area as it pushes
through after 04-06z. Band should remain narrowly focused, with
some embedded thunderstorms.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With the frontal system exiting the area during the day on
Thursday, lingering showers will mainly affect eastern half of
forecast area, through slight chances to in the west lingering
through about 18z. Have increased cloud cover behind the frontal
system, as forecast model soundings do linger a shallow band of
low level moisture.
High pressure to push in Thursday night with partial clearing.
While area will be under cold air advection, lingering clouds will
still keep relatively mild overnight lows. The CAA will be short
lived as return flow ahead of the next approaching system on
Friday will bring a return to upper 60 highs in the south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will pick up during the day on Saturday in advance of a
frontal boundary. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible
during the day. These winds will bring warmer air into the region.
Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday.
Precipitation will hold off for much of the day with showers moving
into northern portions of the forecast area late in the day on
Saturday. The cold front will work through Saturday evening into
Saturday night before stalling out near the Ohio River. The front
will remain in the vicinity on Sunday keeping precipitation chances
across the region. Precipitation will taper off Sunday evening.
There are some model differences for the Saturday night through
Sunday night timeframe. At this time the ECMWF appears to be more
of the outlier, however due to the typical strong performance of the
ECMWF did not completely discount this solution.
High pressure will work into the area late Sunday night. Southerly
flow returns for Monday and Tuesday with continued above normal
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area of pre-frontal showers continues to work through the middle
of the tafs at the beginning of the period. So far I have not seen
any MVFR conditions in this area, so adjusted the cigs and vsbys
to VFR ahead of the front. Expect there to be scattered SHRA until
Speaking of fropa, models are in good agreement with it reaching
the tafs around 12-13Z. Latest observations re showing a band of
IFR cigs just behind the front. Added a mention if IFR cigs to all
tafs, but only went with tempo IFR at CVG/LUK. Winds will pick up
and turn to the west behind the front as caa beginning to affect
the region. After the period of IFR cigs, they should lift to MVFR
and stay there for the rest of the day.
It doesn`t look like the MVFR cigs will begin to break up until
after 00Z as surface high pressure will slowly builds in overnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Sunday.