Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 301816 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 216 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING H5 S/W AND CDFNT ARE SKIMMING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LATEST MESO SCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE PCPN SHOULD BE E OF THE REGION BY 18Z...SO HAVE SPED UP THE ENDING OF IT. BEHIND THE FNT...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS IS WORKING IN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF AND A COUPLE IN THE SOUTH, && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. FOR THURSDAY...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...HAVE BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TO COME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODELS. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THURSDAY WHEN WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUICK MOVG H5 S/W HAS PULLED E OF KCMH/KLCK. MEANWHILE POST FRONTAL IFR STRATUS HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WONT REACH THE SRN TAFS. THAT LEAVES THE BIG QUESTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL SPREAD OF EITHER CLEARING THINGS OUT OR LINGERING THE STRATUS INTO TOMORROW. BASED ON THE COLD AIR POOL BEHIND THE FNT...HAVE DECIDED TO LINGER THE STRATUS ACROSS THE NRN TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALLOWING KCVG/KLUK TO SCATTERED OUT OVERNIGHT. KILN WILL BE THE TRICKY LOCATION. DOES THE STRATUS EXPAND DOWN INTO KILN OVERNIGHT AS THE SRN EDGE IS JUST TO THE NORTH. DECIDED TO KEEP THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE KILN...BUT BROUGHT MVFR/IFR FOG IN AFT 06Z. IN THE NRN TAFS LOWERED VSBYS DOWN TO IFR TOWARDS SUNRISE. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BRING KLUK DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AFFECTING CVG. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM... AVIATION...SITES

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