Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 011756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1256 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will be entrenched north of the Great Lakes region, bringing westerly flow to the Ohio Valley. This flow will bring cool and cloudy conditions through Friday. High pressure will build in early in the weekend. An upper level disturbance may bring a chance for rain or snow on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A widespread SC field is in place across the Great Lakes region this morning. Weakly cyclonic low level flow will become more neutral through the day with even some very weak WAA developing across southwest portions of our area this afternoon. This should allow for some gradual erosion of the southern edge of the cloud deck so we could see at least some partial clearing working into far southern portions of our area this afternoon. For the most part though, expect mainly cloudy skies elsewhere across our area today. This should help keep temps from recovery too much today with highs ranging from the upper 30 northwest to the mid 40s in the far south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Large closed low over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will translate northeast leaving a west to northwest upper flow across the region. Cyclonic low level flow will persist through Friday with moisture being trapped under an inversion, which should result in a primarily overcast period. High temperatures will be slightly below normal with low temperatures around seasonal normals. As high pressure starts to build in Friday night, clouds will finally diminish which will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s. The upper level disturbance passing through the Great Lakes on Saturday night will be battling the drier air at the surface already in place from the high pressure system. Models are continuing to push back the occurrence of precipitation with this system, but there still remains an elevated chance for some rain and snow on Sunday morning to change over to rain relatively quickly. Have trended back on the rain chances later in the day on Sunday given the split from a northern upper level shortwave that continues to weaken with successive model runs, and the southern heavy rain that will remain well south of the Ohio Valley. The Gulf moisture will not have a transportation mechanism to reach the region on Sunday given the still relatively entrenched surface high. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Precipitation will move out of the region Sunday night. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur Monday before a system begins to move in Monday night. There is a decent warm push of air with this system therefore have precipitation as all rain. Expect rain across the area for Tuesday before exiting Tuesday night. Models are variable for a system Wednesday into Wednesday night and with this variance decided to keep precipitation chances lower until there is greater continuity and forecast confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fairly expansive sc deck remains in place across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. However, a few breaks are opening up back to our west where the low level flow has begun to back just a bit. Some of this will likely work its way east across KCVG/KLUK later this afternoon and into this evening so they may go scattered from time. Otherwise, it looks like enough low level moisture should hang around tonight into Friday to generally keep the SC in place across the area. The models are on the edge once again of low VFR and possibly some MVFR cigs. The best chance for any MVFR cigs would likely be at the northern TAF sites later tonight into Friday morning. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...JGL

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