Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 252124 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 424 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WEAKENING SHEARED OUT SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY THIS EVENING. IN SPLIT MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW REGIME...TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF TO INDUCE SFC LOW WHICH TRACKS EAST THRU THE GULF STATES TONIGHT AND THEN NE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PCPN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SE COUNTIES WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS LATEST TREND. ANY PCPN WOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FOCUS SHIFTS TO NRN STREAM S/W WHICH DIGS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE MID MS VLY LATE TONIGHT AND THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DROPS SE AND DISSIPATES. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NW WHICH DIMINISHES/FALLS APART AS THE LIFT WEAKENS. WILL ALLOW LIKELY POPS TO DEVELOP OVER NIGHT INTO THE NW AND THEN DIMINISH LEAVING ONLY FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG THE I-71 AND EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTN. TEMP WISE...IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT TONIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE UPPER TEENS SE. IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPS TO STAY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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LOWER HEIGHTS TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST LATE. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF - 20 DEG C TO SETTLE INTO OHIO. THURSDAY NIGHTS LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST BECOMING CENTERED OVER OHIO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TO READINGS FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 20 SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VERY COLD LOWS RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW NE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS SW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE IT SAGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER FOR THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED ON TUESDAY BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSPORTING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS ALLOW SNOW AT THE START...CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE TUESDAY IF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT COMBINE TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATION TOWARD NORMAL WILL OCCUR. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. READINGS MAY WARM INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TWO WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME... ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW SHIFTING EAST AND LIKELY DIMINISHING TO A FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN

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