Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 241046 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 646 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strengthening upper level low pressure center west of the Ohio Valley will dig south of the area and translate its energy along the southern Ohio/Indiana border tonight, sparking a new circulation. Overnight, this system will become stacked from the surface upwards and slowly move east through Ohio on Thursday. Weak ridging will build west of the region Thursday night and Friday until a shortwave embedded in the westerly flow undercuts it late Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A moist airmass will be found over the region today as an upper low tracks south through the Upper Midwest. East of this low, a strong shortwave will cut north into the western Ohio Valley and spark more widespread showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon. Given the amount of significant cloud cover today, strong storms are not a high probability. However, if the sun does peek through there will be enough energy for deeper convection and more discrete cells. These discrete cells may also be found in an area with a ton of spin, creating the possibility of funnel clouds and subsequent weak tornado. Hodograph this evening per the NAM is nicely curved but not showing a lot of speed increase with height. Wind threat is marginal this afternoon, as is large hail, but none of the above could be ruled out entirely. Temperatures should be hampered by cloud cover and a moist adiabatic profile and only reach into the upper 60s. If a significant break in the cloud deck occurs, expect a rapid rise in temperature and subsequent increased threat from stronger storms in the vicinity of the discontinuous deck. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Storms that are present this evening will exhibit a rapid decrease in intensity as daytime insolation wanes and the driving factor remains the pure upward motion associated with the presence of the stacked low. GFS is showing a nice lull over most of the CWA with a convective complex in southern IN rotating southeast. Positioning of this is in high question and the aforementioned complex could be much further northeast and affecting more than just the southwest portion of the CWA overnight. As the circulation spins and tracks east on Thursday, showers will get another shot of daytime insolation and become stronger. The bulk of the activity on this day will be just south of the low - along the Ohio River and in eastern Kentucky, and move east. Some lingering showers will occur elsewhere in the CWA and region but should be lacking any strong upward motion and subsequent thunder at this time. Highs Thursday will be in the mid 60s with little chance of sunshine making an appearance to modify any one particular area unlike Wednesday/today. Overnight lows Wed and Thurs night will be in the mid 50s, and the moist profile in the atmosphere tells me that there may be a very low diurnal and the high/low range may need to be tightened up by both raising the low and lowering the high. A showers end Thursday night, a brief drying trend will be found Friday as ridging works in. Friday night has a vort max undercutting the ridge and sparking some shower/thunderstorm activity. The nature of the shortwave and vort max is very compact, with large differences in timing possible, leading to a lower confidence in the forecast beyond here. This shower potential leaves the area to the east by early Saturday morning. Saturday has a warm front developing over the area and subsequent increased threat for showers and thunderstorms. Friday and Saturday will both be notably warmer with highs in the mid and upper 70s and overnight lows around 60 or in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We will then transition into a west-southwesterly flow pattern across our region as an upper level low builds into northern MN. The combination of the moist southwesterly flow and a series of mid level short waves rotating around the upper level low will lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday night and continuing through the weekend. PWs will push up in excess of 1.5 inches as we progress through the weekend so depending on exactly how things end up lining up, some locally heavy rainfall could eventually become an issue. Highs Sunday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. The deeper moisture will shift off to our east Monday into Tuesday. Will however hang on to some lower chances for precipitation through the end of the long term period as some additional weaker mid level short waves will rotate down across our region. Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A nose of IFR cigs worked up from ern KY early this morning and lifted through the middle of the TAFs, affecting ILN and DAY. As daytime heating picks up, these low clouds should quickly rise to a VFR ceiling. Meanwhile, H5 closed low will dig south to nr the boot heal of MO by 00Z, as a sfc low develops in TN and lifts ne to ern KY. Models continue to show that the more widespread pcpn will hold off until after 18Z. Can`t rule out a scattered shower before then, so included VCSH by 14-15Z. Brought mvfr cigs and vsbys up across the tafs during the afternoon with the main batch of showers. Mentioned a VCTS in the srn tafs were the better instability exists. After 00Z, the bulk of the precipitation will have moved north of the tafs leaving only a chance of a lingering shower. An occluding sfc low will be over the region with abundant low level moisture. Ceilings will likely drop into IFR overnight and some areas of fog are expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Thursday with MVFR visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...Franks/JGL AVIATION...Sites

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