Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 020528 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1228 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Flow around a large low pressure system to the northeast will keep cool and mainly cloudy conditions across the region through Friday. High pressure will build in Saturday. A weak upper level disturbance will track across the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clearing has taken place across the southern part of the area this evening but a burst of CAA has allowed more low clouds to form just west of the area. These will likely move into the area over the next couple of hours. Not many changes to ongoing forecast. New zones already out. Prev Discussion-> Satellite imagery shows that clearing has worked into the Tri- State. Elsewhere there have been some thin spots in the stratocumulus, but conditions have remained cloudy. It appears that clearing could make a little more progress into the forecast area this evening. But a return to some weak cold air advection later tonight should result in lower clouds spreading back across those areas that cleared. Forecast lows do not stray too far from MOS guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Stratocumulus is expected to continue through Friday and into Friday evening. Weak low level warm air advection finally commences Friday night and surface high pressure starts to nose in from the west. This should be sufficient for low clouds to eventually erode. The high will build in Saturday and already move off to the east Saturday night. High clouds will be starting to spread in Saturday although at this point expect them to be thin through much of the day. Clouds will thicken towards evening and then lower into a mid deck Saturday night. But it will remain dry. Highs will remain below normal with lows near normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A system will move through the region Sunday into Sunday evening. There is a northern and southern component to this system and models continue to differ on how much phasing between these two components there will be. Trends continue to be towards less phasing therefore kept close to the previous forecast of a little cooler with the temperatures and lighter with the precipitation. A brief lull in the precipitation will occur late Sunday night through the daytime hours on Monday. The next system will move up from the south Monday night through Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain with this system as warmer air in drawn in from the south. Another system will move through Wednesday night into Thursday. GFS is not as pronounced with the precipitation with this system. Went closer to the ECMWF solution. After the frontal passage on Thursday, much colder air will work into the region. Some light snow will be possible then on Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings will be the main impact for the TAF sites over the next 12 hours or so. A fairly solid deck of clouds at around 2000-2500 feet has developed, and will continue to hang over the TAF sites overnight. MVFR ceilings are already occurring at KDAY/KILN and will move into KCMH/KLCK over the next one or two hours. KCVG/KLUK are currently on the edge of these clouds, but MVFR ceilings are likely to begin fairly soon as well. It is unlikely that the cloud heights will lift much until a few hours after sunrise, and the TAFS will indicate prevailing VFR conditions by late morning. Westerly winds will remain in place at around 8-10 knots overnight, and will increase slightly on Friday, with some gusts to around 20 knots possible. There is a very small chance of some flurries on Friday afternoon at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK but with no expected impact to aviation conditions. This will not be included in the forecast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday, and again on Monday night into Tuesday.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Novak AVIATION...Hatzos

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