Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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051 FXUS61 KILN 240446 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1246 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A mid-level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through early next week. This will bring generally dry and warm weather conditions to the region. Much cooler air will settle into the region by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Will only see a bit of thin cirrus floating across the region overnight. May see some river valley fog again.. Forecast lows look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... The H5 ridge will continue its transition off to the east on Sunday. A se flow around the ridge could bring a few more cirrus clouds to the region on Sunday. This combining with H8 temperatures a degree or so cooler than today may steal a degree or two from the high temperature, So went with highs in the upper 80s. The ridge remain dominant Sunday night, keeping skies mostly clear. Lows drop to between 60 to 65 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended forecast period will be punctuated by a mid-week pattern change over the Ohio Valley -- with warm and humid conditions to start, and cooler conditions to end. On Monday morning, there will still have been very little change to the overall weather pattern that has existed for an extended period of time. Mid level ridging will still be in place over the region, as will surface high pressure -- though both will be centered east of the Ohio Valley. With light boundary layer winds and a stagnant air mass, a basically-unchanging forecast is warranted for both Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s and mostly clear skies. It is possible that, as this pattern has shown in the past day or two, max temps may need to be raised to closer to 90. Late on Tuesday, a trough will be moving eastward from North Dakota into the northern Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, a weak surface low will be moving northeast near James Bay by Wednesday morning, with a weak and stretched-out cold front extending southward through the Great Lakes region. Though attention will be placed on the role this setup will have in shunting Hurricane Maria out into the open ocean, the cold front will also have some impact on the Ohio Valley, at least in terms of the cold advection that will follow its passage. In terms of precipitation chances with the front on Wednesday afternoon, it will be moving into a dry air mass, well separated from its parent surface low, and lacking in forcing and convergence. PoPs will be kept to only a 20 percent chance. Depending on the exact position of the front, max temps on Wednesday could vary a bit from NW to SE, so the temperature forecast for this day is only of medium confidence at best. A much larger and more well-defined trough will move southeast into the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday, bringing a notable cooling in temperatures, as well as at least some chance of precipitation. Will keep PoPs on the far low end of the scale for now, as this pattern evolution is a little bit uncertain, owing to the complex interaction with the first trough and the hurricane. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface high pressure remains centered to our northeast will all TAF sites VFR. Some local visibility restrictions at KLUK will again be possible thanks to some river fog. Otherwise VFR through the issuance is expected. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
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&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Sites LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.