Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182206 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 606 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FROST OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DRY AND COOL SUNDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS ASSOC WTH SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND FETCH OFF LAKE MI NOW PRETTY MUCH ENTIRELY IN THE ILN FCST AREA...AND CONTINUING TO PUSH ESE. EXPECT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REMAINING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT JUST THE PROGRESSION OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SSE...BUT ALSO THINNING/ERODING IN NRN INDIANA AND NW OHIO...SO HOLES SHOWING UP MAY HASTEN CLEARING OF THIS BACK EDGE CLOUD SHIELD FROM BOTH EDGES. AS A RESULT...HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE NW FCST AREA DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AMPLE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE NW FLOW EARLY BACKING A BIT AND CAA BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S STILL LOOKS GOOD BUT RAISED SLIGHTLY IN THE SW WHERE SOME LATE DAY WAA MAY BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPR 50S. MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV TO DROP DOWN FROM CNTRL LOWER CANADA THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA SO HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN FAIRLY SLOW DEPARTURE WITH THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPR LEVEL PATTERN LINGERING THE UPR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW WITH A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROF WILL PROVIDE A CONTD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT MID WEEK, WILL END ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LOW...SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WED/THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. SOME MODERATION TO TAKE PLACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CEILINGS OVER THE REGION HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2000-4000 FEET...BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A SWITCH TO PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...AN AREA OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES. AS THIS RAIN NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AIRPORTS...PREVAILING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITIES IN THE RAIN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY GUSTY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THEY TURN TO THE WEST. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT...CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO DROP AS NIGHT FALLS...THOUGH GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN 1500 FEET. ONE CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE. THE NEW TAFS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ONCE CLEARING OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-080. KY...NONE. IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073-074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...JDR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS

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